Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report
Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback
Last week, four quarterbacks (Justin Herbert – 33.35, Tua Tagovailoa – 31.45, Lamar Jackson – 31.20, and Kirk Cousins – 30.35) scored at least 30.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The best-value quarterback in the DFS market was Andy Dalton (27.15). Fifteen QBs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points, three less than in Week 2 (only 10 in Week 1). Here’s a look at the top five quarterbacks after three games:
- Kirk Cousins (86.45)
- Justin Herbert (81.75)
- Tua Tagovailoa (81.00)
- Patrick Mahomes (76.45)
- Jordan Love (75.15)
Joe Burrow (34.65 fantasy points – 30th) remains the weak link of the top-tier quarterbacks drafted in 2023. C.J. Stroud (63.80) sits 12th, one notch above Mac Jones (60.70). Four quarterbacks scored at least 20.00 fantasy points each week – Cousins, Herbert, Mahomes, and Love. Daniel Jones has two bust weeks (7.50 and 6.35) vs. the Cowboys and 49ers while booming in Week 2 (34.95) vs. the Cardinals.
Let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 4 DFS: Quarterback Report.
Top-Tier Options
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
Three weeks into the 2023 DFS season, Allen is still looking for his first impact game. He’s been the best fantasy quarterback over the past three years, scoring at least 30.00 fantasy points seven times in 2022 (twice vs. the Dolphins – 31.70 and 39.90). The Bills’ offense has a much better structure in the run game over the last two weeks due to the play of James Cook (32/221 with six catches for 50 yards). Surprisingly, Allen is gaining only 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 7.6 in 2022, which was also an issue in 2021 (6.8).
Miami’s defense had massive issues with the Chargers’ run game in Week 1 (40/233/3). Over the next two weeks, they cleaned up this problem (25/88 and 20/69). But New England and Denver haven’t run the ball well in 2023. In addition, Allen’s right arm forces the Dolphins to defend the whole field. The Broncos did have three completions of 25 yards or more in Week 3. Miami has eight sacks with increased pressure on the quarterback this season.
The over/under for this game is 53.5. Also, the echo in my head from a friend of mine is that this game total usually falls on the underside…or was it the over? Either way, Allen has the “due feeling,” and his recent resume vs. the Dolphins suggests four times his salary (or more than 32.00 fantasy points) is well within reach. In addition, the Miami should push the issue on the scoreboard.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,600)
After a slow passing start in Week 1 (229/1) against Miami, Herbert took advantage of his last two favorable matchups…
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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2
The opening week of the 2023 NFL season was filled with surprises. A good percentage of those were poor ones. That includes both participants in tonight’s games. Hopefully, both squads can turn it around, but we’ll dig deep in our
Philadelphia managed to pull out a win in Week 1 but had an underwhelming offensive showing in New England. Meanwhile, the Vikings were stunned at home, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17.
Both teams are loaded with fantasy-relevant talent. The main question is will we see both offenses rebound? The FullTime Fantasy Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2 analyzes the game with fantasy tips, DFS picks, and our best bet.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 3 | 31 | 2 | 20 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 23 | 14 | 22 | 8 |
Both squads fought in close matchups in their openers. Philadelphia’s potent offense was held to 154 passing yards by Bill Belcichik’s defense. The Eagles were just 4-of-13 on third downs and held to 4.1 yards per play.
Expect things to rebound for Philly on Thursday. Turnovers did the Vikings in last week. Minnesota outplayed the Buccaneers but lost the turnover battle 3-0. For the Vikings to have a shot against a tough Eagles team on the road, they must clean up that part of their game.
Minnesota enters this game as a 6.5-point underdog. The over/under of 49 is the second-highest of the slate.
Let’s break down what that means from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective in our Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 2.
How will Thursday’s Vikings vs. Eagles game go?
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Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report
After a wild Week 1, Shawn Childs provides his Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report so you can dominate on DraftKings and FanDuel! Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report Top Tier Options Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,800) On the
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NFL Week 1 Eagles at Patriots: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Eagles at Patriots: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Eagles – 5 Over/Under: 45.0 Philadelphia comes a sensational season in 2022, but they finished one step short of greatness. Jalen Hurts offers power running with developing value in the passing game. The Eagles have a top offensive line, and their defense created plenty of pressure on the quarterback last season. Philly has three excellent receiving options (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert) while adding D’Andre Smith in the offseason. New England is struggling to find their offensive identity after losing Tom Brady a few seasons ago. The Patriots have talent on defense, and they want to run the ball to control the clock. Mac Jones is a much better player than most believe. He can’t reach elite status without better play and production from his receiving corps. Rhamondre Stevenson will get plenty of touches this season, while Ezekiel Elliott brings experience off the bench. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts Hurts continues to be a beast in the run game, highlighted by his stats in 2022 (165/760/13) despite missing two weeks. The improvement in his receiving options last year led to career-highs in completions (306), pass attempts (460), passing yards (3,701), passing touchdowns (22), yards per pass attempts (8.0), and completion rate (66.5). He passed for 300 yards or more in five matchups (333/1, 340/3, 380/3, 315/0, and 301/1), lifting him to third in quarterback scoring (423.05) in four-point passing touchdown formats. Hurts scored more than 30.00 fantasy points (37.35, 31.00, 30.05, 31.25, 31.35, 38.20, 32.55, 39.5, and 45.20) in nine of his 18 starts (including the postseason). New England ranked seventh defending quarterback (19.16 FPPG), with failure in two matchups (30.70 and 35.50 fantasy points). Quarterbacks rushed for 322 yards on 70 carries vs. the Patriots with two scores. To reach a winning score in Week 1, Hurts must score more than 30.00 fantasy points. It’s not the best matchup, but he is still a coin flip in any week due to his high floor in the run game and his exceptional receiving options. D’Andre Swift Swift appeared to kick down the fantasy door in Week 1 (15/144/1 with three catches for 31 yards) of 2022. Unfortunately, Detroit only gave him 17 touches over the following two games, leading to 133 combined yards with one score and five catches. A shoulder issue cost him three weeks plus a shallow role over the next five matchups (23/61/2 with 16 catches for 109 yards and one touchdown). Swift gained 453 yards with three touchdowns and 24 catches on 73 touches over his final six games. He finished the year ranked 21st in running back scoring (191.10) in PPR formats, with three weeks of success (26.50, 21.10, and 27.70 fantasy points). The Lions only had him on the field for 34.7% of their plays in 2022, which invites a higher ceiling with a higher role and a healthy season. The Eagles running backs had only 48 catches for 262 yards and no catches on 61 targets last season. Philadelphia should give the most touches in Week 1, but Swift doesn’t appear to have upside in scoring in close or catching many balls. To score 22.00 fantasy points, he needs a touchdown with more than 100 combined yards and about five catches. A three-back rotation isn’t his friend. Kenneth Gainwell With the Eagles’ abandoning the running back position in the passing game last season, Gainwell finished with 409 combined yards with four touchdowns and 23 catches. His only fantasy game of value (12/112/1 with one catch for nine yards) came in the first round of the postseason. There has been positive talk about Gainwell over the summer, but his role/opportunity is unclear. More of a gamble while needing 16.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to pay off. A.J. Brown The Eagles threw the ball 81 more times than I expected to their wide receivers in 2022, giving Brown a much better opportunity. He finished with career-highs in catches (88), receiving yards (1,496), and targets (145) while scoring 11 touchdowns and gaining an impressive 17.0 yards per catch. Brown gained 20 or more yards on 26.1% of his catches. His best output came in five games (10/155, 6/156/3, 8/119/2, 9/181, and 6/103). He averaged 8.5 targets last year. Based on his salary and outcomes in 2022, Brown would have filled his salary bucket 20% of the time over his 20 games played. Wide receivers had 207 catches for 2,688 yards and 15 touchdowns on 338 targets against New England in 2022. I don’t expect a 30.00 fantasy game, so I’ll look for upside elsewhere. DeVonta Smith Last year, Smith saw his opportunity grow by over 30%, leading to an exceptional year (95/1,196/7 on 136 targets). He caught 69.9% of his chances while being an impact player from Week 15 to Week 17 (5/126, 8/113/2, and 9/115) when fantasy championships were on the line. Smith gained more than 100 yards in three other matchups (8/169/1, 5/102/1, and 7/100). His season started with a goose egg on four targets, with emptiness in three other contests (3/17, 5/23, 2/22, and 2/36). Over his final 12 starts (including the postseason), Smith had 70 catches for 951 yards and six touchdowns on 105 targets. Smith needs about 29.00 fantasy points at DraftKings to finish as an edge play in Week 1. He reached that threshold twice (30.90 and 31.30 – 10% of the time) last season. I expect more big plays in
2023 Philadelphia Eagles Outlook
2023 Philadelphia Eagles Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs. Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Philadelphia Eagles Outlook. — PROJECTIONS — — Coaching Staff — Nick Sirianni went 23-11 over his first two seasons as the head coach of the Eagles. Philadelphia had a dynamic run in 2022, leading to a trip to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, they lost by three points to the Kansas City Chiefs. He spent the previous three seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Colts while having 14 years of coaching experience in the NFL. Philadelphia jumped to 3rd in points scored (477 – an increase of 33 points from 2021) while improving from 14th to 3rd in offensive yards. Brian Johnson takes over as Philly’s offensive coordinator. He earned his way to the NFL via 11 years of coaching in college. In 2021, Philadelphia gave him their quarterback’s coach job, leading to his promotion in 2023. Johnson turned 36 in February. Philly also lost their defensive coordinator after their great season. They awarded the job to Sean Desai this season. He held the same position in 2021 for the Chicago Bears while working as the Seattle Seahawks’ associated head coach and defensive assistant last year. Desai had been coaching in the NFL for 10 seasons. The Eagles allowed 344 points (8th) last year, an improvement of 74 points from 2020 and 41 points from 2021. Their defense did show more growth in yards allowed (2nd – 10th in 2021), thanks to a league-high 70 sacks. — Free Agency — Philadelphia lost DT Javon Hargrove to the 49ers in the offseason after they rewarded him with an $84 million contract ($40 million guaranteed). Last season, he set a career-high in sacks (11) with 60 tackles. Their defense also moved on from S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (DET), LB T.J. Edwards (CHI), LB Kyzir White (ARI), S Marcus Epps (LV), and DE Robert Quinn (FA). The Eagles added S Terrell Edmunds and LB Nicholas Morrow via free agency. G Isaac Seumalo signed with the Steelers, and G Andre Dillard found a new home with the Titans. Offensively, RB Miles Sanders landed in Carolina while Philadelphia replaced him with RB Rashaad Penny. They brought in QB Marcus Mariota to cover the loss of QB Gardner Minshew (IND). The only other addition was WR Olamide Zaccheaus. — Draft — After an excellent season, the Eagles still had two first-round picks (DT Jalen Carter and LB Nolan Smith) in the 2023 NFL Draft. Carter instantly gives Philadelphia an impact interior lineman who will attack the quarterback and control the run game. He gets off the line with a plan creating wins with quickness, hands, and strength. His motor may need some gas late in games when facing bulky, power offensive linemen. Carter’s next step is personal growth in his maturity to keep him on point in the weekly battles in the trenches. Thanks to his speed (4.39 40-yard dash), vision, and team mentality, Smith brings a high foundation in his ability to support the run. His pass pushing has room to grow while needing more defined moves when stalemated in his attack. He had his 2022 college season cut short due to a torn pectoral muscle. Philly added T Tyler Steen in the third round. Early in his career, he projects higher in pass protection due to his vision and coverage area. His technique and attack angle need some work to increase his range and balance when moving forward. Steen must add patience to his plan to improve his chance of slowing down a delayed rusher. The Eagles added three more defensive players (S Sydney Brown, CB Kelee Ringo, and DT Moro Ojomo) over the back half of this year’s draft. Brown is at his best when attacking the line of scrimmage in run support, but he does miss some tackles. When asked to downshift and change directions, his defense has a step back in value. Brown stays connected to tight ends in coverage, but better route runners will give him problems. Ringo is the third player added to Philadelphia’s defense who played his college ball at Georgia. He offers blazing speed (4.36 40-yard dash) with the size (6’2” and 205 lbs.) to handle press coverage. Ringo adds value against the run but lacks the movements and anticipation to fire on time against throws over the short areas of the field. Penalties were an issue last year, and he needs to find a balance between watching the quarterback and staying connected to his assignment. Ojomo comes to the NFL as a tweener defensive lineman. His strength is the key to his wins, but he doesn’t have the lateral quickness to be a difference-maker on the edge or between defenders on the inside with his feet. Ojomo plays hard with an eye for the ball. Philadelphia invested in QB Tanner McKee in the sixth round. His skill set is miles away from Jalen Hurts, requiring the Eagles to run a different offense when he is behind center. McKee does his work from the pocket with an NFL arm. His delivery needs to be cleaned up to increase his accuracy. McKee loses value when asked to throw on the move, and his pocket presence isn’t high enough to extend the passing window when looking for his secondary receiving options. — Offensive Line — The Eagles fell to fourth in rushing yards (2,509) with 32 rushing touchdowns. They averaged 4.6 yards per carry (down from 4.9 in 2021) while gaining over 20 yards per rush in 17 runs. Philadelphia jumped to eighth in passing yards (4,364) while gaining 8.1 yards per pass attempt. They finished with 25 passing touchdowns and