NBA Opening Night – Jaguar Lou’s Cash Plays
Welcome to another NBA Fantasy Season! Before I give my cash picks for tonight’s games, I just wanted to make a couple points about NBA DFS strategy that you should know if you expect to win any tournaments – GPP or Cash. Make sure you monitor all lineups until they are confirmed. A simple last-minute lineup change can alter usage numbers creating a play that is cheap and obvious. For example, five minutes before lineup lock the Cavs confirm that Lebron is not playing, this is important not only because you’ll have to remove Lebron from your lineups but also because the game usage for Kevin Love will undoubtingly go through the roof! Adjustments like this take your DFS game to the next level. Correlations are important to recognize. Kill two birds with one stone, if you know two guys who play well off each other, play them together. Beware of the blow out! Just remember, teams sit their starters in games where they’re getting blown out. Your starters can’t get points if they’re on the bench! On two game slates like tonight make more than one lineup! You can limit your risk by investing in just a few extra lineups, hedging one lineup off another. PG Kyrie Irving – 8,200 FD & 8,300 DK Kyrie Irving is starting the 2017-2018 season against his old team the Cleveland Cavaliers – a team he demanded to trade him just a few months ago. Putting aside the fact that he’s matching up against an aging Derrick Rose, this is a spite game for Kyrie. This is a narrative play by all accounts but logical as well. Kyrie should benefit off assists and possibly some rebounds to along with 25+ points. I do think this game stays close and Irving will be a big part of that. Assuming Jaylen Brown and/or Marcus Smart are responsible for guarding Lebron James, Boston’s offensive production should really boil down to three main players: Kyrie Irving, Al Horford and Gordon Heyward. Out of these three players Kyrie would be my most confident pick, making him my lock of the day. Containing Lebron James will not be easy but that’s Brown/Smart’s problem, Kyrie’s responsibility is to keep the Celtic’s in the game, a task that I’m confident he completes tonight in a stadium full of Cleveland fans who will likely be fueling his rage by booing his name all night long. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash PG Option(s): Derrick Rose SG Klay Thompson – 6,800 FD & 6,200 DK Some might say this is more of a GPP play but I disagree. Klay Thompson will be guarding James Harden. Everyone know that James Harden kills it on the offensive end of the court but the fact is, he’s allowed a ton of points on the defensive end of the court. Klay Thompson will not only benefit from Harden’s inconsistent defense, he will also benefit from the guaranteed 35+ minutes he will see on the court as he should be guarding James Harden for the entire game. Assuming Klay Thompson stays out of foul trouble, I believe this matchup creates an opportunity for a big game from Klay as well as maintaining a solid floor for cash games. At such reasonable salaries around the industry, Klay’s chances of reaching value are very good. The Golden State Warriors are favored at – 9.5 with a massive 229.5 O/U. ** Draymond Green is dealing with back problems and is currently a GTD, continue to monitor! ** Other Cash SG Option(s): Dwayne Wade & James Harden SF/PF Jae Crowder –4,500 FD & 4,300 DK **This play is contingent on Jae Crowder starting** If the projections are correct Jae Crowder will be starting tonight and matching up against Jayson Tatum – the rookie that ultimately replaced him. Similar to the Kyrie narrative, Crowder is going to want to show up and prove to the Celtics what they gave up. Also, similar to the Kyrie narrative, Crowder exhibits a favorable matchup in both size and skill. In his first game with the Cleveland Cavaliers look for some hustle out of Crowder and with Rookie Jayson Tatum guarding him, beware of a potentially big game for Jae Crowder. Not to mention, Crowder racks up a variety of stats, which is the best kind of fantasy player to roster for cash games. If this game stays close, I can see Crowder putting up 10/5+/5+ considering he should be heavily involved in Cleveland’s offense. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash SF Option(s): Lebron James, Gordon Heyward & Kevin Durant PF/C Kevin Love – 7,000 FD & 7,800 DK Regardless of if Lebron James suits up or not (I don’t see him missing this game), Kevin Love is in a nice matchup against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics had significant problems protecting the rim last season, ranking 26th allowing an average of 44.5 rebounds per game. Boston specifically struggled protecting their own basket allowing an average of 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, ranking the Celtics 5th worst in the league. Al Horford is a very talented Center but in my mind, is no match for Kevin Love. Current projections have Love playing Center and Jae Crowder playing the 4, either way I don’t think the Celtics have the personnel to hold down Kevin Love. I do think this is the game to target on tonight's two game slate – It should be a close, high scoring affair filled with emotion. The question is, what is the right combination of players to have full exposure to this game? Start by locking in Kevin Love at a very reasonable salary on both Fan Duel and Draft Kings. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash PF Option(s): Draymond Green & Ryan Anderson (more of a GPP play but plausible) C Clint
Jaguar Lou’s Expert Picks – Week 6
Quarterback Matt Stafford – 8,500 FD & 6,500 DK Matt Stafford is my favorite GPP QB play in Week six against the New Orleans Saints. Stafford comes into this game with a bruised/sore leg after Week fives battle with the Carolina Panthers. Although I am slightly concerned with Stafford’s health, I WILL be investing in massive shares of Matthew Stafford if he in fact plays this Sunday. Stafford has seen the Saints twice over the past two and a half seasons. In these two games Stafford combined for 583 yards with- 5 touchdowns maintaining a 79.7 Comp%…Now that’s domination. Something else I noticed was that in both games Stafford was easily able to complete the long ball – most notably two passes, one for 66 yards and the other for 45 yards. Pairing his reasonable salaries around the industry with the possibility of being low-owned due to his Questionable status, lock in Matthew Stafford with Golden Tate to start your lineup construction this week. The Detroit Lions are underdogs at + 4.5 with a 50.5 O/U. Other QB Option(s): Drew Brees & Cam Newton Running Back Samaje Perine – 4,900 FD & 4,400 DK Okay, we all know San Francisco has one of the worst defenses against the run. The 49ers face a Washington Redskins offense who basically have two running back options left (assuming Rob Kelly remains injured), Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine . Considering Chris Thompson is more of a passing- down back, this leaves Samaje Perine to control the running game against the league’s 19th ranked rush defense. For those who don’t know, Samaje Perine is no average Rookie. Perine is a very talented running back out of Oklahoma and always has the ability to put up huge numbers when given the opportunity. Not to mention, Samaje Perine can realistically benefit from fourth quarter garbage time. The Washington Redskins are favored at – 9.5 with a 46.5 O/U. **Monitor Rob Kelly’s injury status throughout the week** Other Running Back Option(s): Chris Thompson (Hedge off Perine) & C.J Anderson Wide Receiver Kelvin Benjamin – 6,500 FD and 6,400 DK **Thursday Play** Kelvin Benjamin has a nice matchup this weekend against Eagles #2 Cornerback Jalen Mills with Ronald Darby still injured. I’m going to try and make this as simple as possible. The Eagles allow the highest amount of big yardage plays in the league. Kelvin Benjamin is 6 feet 5 inches tall, weighing 245 lbs, conversely Jalen Mills is 6 feet tall weighing 191 lbs. Cam Newton has been playing exceptionally well over his last two games combining for 666 yards with six touchdowns. Considering the height/weight difference between Kelvin Benjamin and Jalen Mills, if you’re playing Thursday’s slate lock in Kelvin Benjamin for a reasonable salary of 6,500 on Fan Duel and 6,400 on Draft Kings. Make sure Cam Newton is playing but assuming he is, Kelvin Benjamin is my lock of the week! The Carolina Panthers are favored at -3 with a 46 O/U. Other Wide Receiver Option(s): Michael Thomas & Devin Funchess Tight End Ryan Griffin – 4,500 FD & 4,000 DK The Cleveland Browns have consistently had problems guarding the TE position this season. Most recently, Austin Seferian-Jenkins took advantage of this -mismatch for 6 receptions and a touchdown but Cleveland’s struggles against the TE didn’t start here. Cleveland’s defense ranks 31st in the NFL against opposing TE’s so far, this season. In their last two games, The Browns have allowed 12 receptions for 3 touchdowns against opposing TE’s. This week Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson get a crack at exploiting this favorable matchup, the question is who will benefit more? In my opinion the play here is Ryan Griffin. Despite Stephen Anderson putting up big YAC (yards after catch) numbers, Ryan Griffin is the more targeted TE, allowing me to designate this a safer GPP play. I would consider investing in a few hedge lineups simply swapping in Anderson for Griffin, just in case of game flow/ Injury possibilities. The Houston Texans are favored at -9.5 with a 46.5 O/U. Other TE Option(s): Stephen Anderson (Hedge off Griffin) & Ed Dickson Defense Baltimore Ravens – 4,900 FD & 3,700DK I like to wait for Sunday’s injury reports before making any decisions on my Defense. But if I had to say a front runner right now, it would be the Baltimore Ravens. I rostered the Ravens Defense this past week due to Oakland’s mid-week injury to Derek Carr. While Chicago might not currently have any injury problems, they are starting Mitch Trubisky in his second career game in the NFL. The Ravens are a talented Defense averaging 10.6 fantasy points/game this season on both Draft Kings and Fan Duel. I believe a seasoned defense in Baltimore will be able to exploit a young, inexperienced Chicago Bears offense lead by Rookie, Mitch Trubisky. The Baltimore Ravens are favored at -6.5 with a 40 O/U. Other DST Option(s): Houston Texans & Denver Broncos