2025 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview
2025 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview The Chiefs won another AFC title, but the humiliating blowout loss to the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. Andy Reid somehow got 17 wins out of a team that regressed to 17th in total offense and scored just 22.6 points per game. Kansas City’s defense, however, was exemplary. For fantasy football, the main concern is if this regression is permanent or if the Chiefs can rebound after two ‘down’ seasons for Patrick Mahomes. After posting overall QB1 numbers in 2022, Mahomes barely qualified as a QB1 in 2025. He posted his fewest passing yards (3,928) and touchdowns (26) since becoming a starter. With a promising second-year class of signal-callers, Mahomes is no longer a locked-in top-5 fantasy option. Instead, he should be viewed as a solid QB1, but no longer one for fantasy managers to go out of their way to target early on draft day. Kansas City’s backfield will be productive, but not necessarily in a predictive manner for fantasy purposes. Kareem Hunt re-signed, which indicates the committee backfield with Isiah Pacheco will continue. Additionally, the addition of Elijah Mitchell adds another player to the mix. Pacheco’s stock has plummeted, making him and Hunt mere late-round fliers. Overall, Kansas City’s receiving corps has three fantasy options worth targeting and offers some hope that the powerhouse offenses we’re accustomed to can return. The Chiefs re-signed Marquise Brown, who missed most of the 2024 campaign. Rashee Rice got off to a fast start before tearing his LCL in Week 4. Rice is expected to be fully recovered and ready to resume his role as KC’s No. 1 wideout. 2024 first-rounder Xavier Worthy produced nine touchdowns but never hit 80 receiving yards in a regular-season tilt. Rookie Jalen Royals and veteran Juju Smith-Schuster will vie for reserve roles. Gone are the days of TE Travis Kelce carrying fantasy squads to titles. Kelce, who turns 35 in October, is on a three-year slide in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and yards after catch. He should still be viewed as a fantasy TE1, but the days of dominating with Mahomes/Kelce stacks appear firmly in the past. No. 2 tight end Noah Gray has made strides in each of his four NFL seasons and could factor into Kansas City’s weekly game plan. Gray offers plenty of late-round sleeper appeal for fantasy managers with deeper rosters. Fantasy Grade: B- QB Mahomes, Patrick, KC [QB1] One down season is a coincidence, but Patrick Mahomes has now had two rather disappointing campaigns. Granted, he set the bar incredibly high, but we’re starting to wonder if this is who Mahomes is now. His yardage, touchdowns, adjusted completion rate, and yards per attempt have all declined in three consecutive years. Despite an improved supporting cast, Mahomes bottomed out in 2024, finishing as QB11. With most of the same group back, it’s now hard to see Mahomes rebounding to his previous glory days. Instead, view him for what he has been recently: a decent QB1 who lacks a path to top-5 numbers. ADVICE: Decent QB1 well behind the top tier. QB Minshew, Gardner, KC [QB2] If Patrick Mahomes misses time, Minshew will be in a prime position to throw three touchdowns and two interceptions a week. A name to keep in mind in really deep Superflex formats. RB Pacheco, Isiah, KC [RB1] Isiah Pacheco was a hot commodity last summer but had a forgettable, injury-marred season (fractured fibula, 310 rushing yards, one TD in seven games). He got 41 touches in KC’s first two games before sitting out until Week 13. Once he returned, Pacheco was clearly behind Kareem Hunt. With Hunt back in Kansas City, Andy Reid will resort to a committee backfield, with Elijah Mitchell also in play. Pacheco’s high-energy style gives him the most potential, but Hunt’s presence means fantasy managers should approach this backfield with caution. ADVICE: Has the highest ceiling in Kansas City’s backfield, but Pacheco looks like an RB4/Flex option at best. RB Hunt, Kareem, KC [RB2] Hunt took over as Kansas City’s main back after Isiah Pacheco fractured his fibula in Week 2. Andy Reid re-signed Hunt fairly early in the off-season, indicating that he will have a role with the Chiefs in 2025. Hunt has lost his burst, accounting for just 2.86 yards created per touch (51st) and ranking 41st in explosive play rate (71.4). But he did rack up 50 red-zone touches and will play valuable snaps in a high-octane Chiefs’ offense. That gives Hunt RB4/flex value. ADVICE: The Chiefs seem destined to use multiple backs, and Andy Reid likes what Hunt offers. He’s got week-to-week flex value. RB Smith, Brashard, KC [RB3] Sleeper As for the question of which KC back fantasy zealots should target, take a late-round stab on Brashard Smith. Smith’s usage in the passing game is intriguing, and he’s been seen throughout OTAs lining up in the slot. He racked up 1,659 yards and 18 scores last year and caught 108 passes in college. He also blazed a 4.39 40, making him an interesting weapon in Andy Reid’s offense. Read more about Smith in Jody Smith’s Preseason Pro. RB Mitchell, Elijah, KC [RB4] ADVICE: After three injury-marred seasons in San Francisco, where he averaged 4.7 yards per carry, Mitchell has an opportunity to carve out a valuable role in a Kansas City backfield that is decidedly unsettled. Solid late-round target in deeper leagues. WR Rice, Rashee, KC [WR1] Rashee Rice was off to a blistering start in 2024 before a knee injury ended his second season in Week 3. The good news on that front is that Rice did not tear his ACL and is already participating in OTAs. Before the injury, Rice looked like a WR1, averaging 96 receiving yards per game and scoring twice. Year Three breakouts are a popular target for fantasy managers, and Rice is shaping up to have his first 1,000-yard season. UPDATE: Rice is looking at a 4-6 game suspension THIS YEAR, which complicates his fantasy outlook.
Vegas Insider’s Top-3 Player Props
Vegas Insider’s Top-3 Player Props Last week, Matt Brandon’s Week 1 NFL Player Props went 6-1! For Week 2, our Vegas Insider @RespectedMoney presents his top-3 player props to target. With the opening week of the 2024 NFL season now in the books, let’s take a look at three “Respected Money” player proposition wagers for Week 2! RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Isiah Pacheco was a major factor in Kansas City’s season-opening win over Baltimore, setting the tone on the ground. The hard-nosed rusher, who finished Week 1 as the overall RB20 in PPR (15.8 points), appears ready to deliver on the expectation he will be a top RB1 in 2024. Pacheco will face a Bengals rush defense that heads into Arrowhead fresh off allowing 170 yards and a touchdown to the Patriots. Expect a heavy dose of Pacheco against a Cincinnati team he torched in Week 17 last season when he rushed for 130 yards and added seven catches for 35 yards and a touchdown WR Mike Evans ANYTIME TD (+130) Fans just watched the Rams light up the Lions’ pass defense, which yielded the most receptions (34) and the second-most passing yards (317) in Week 1, along with a touchdown. It will not get much easier for Detroit’s secondary, as Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers head to Ford Field. Evans, who finished as the overall WR6 (23.1 PPR points) in Week 1, continues to be one of the most underappreciated wideouts in fantasy football. This projects as a high-scoring affair between two teams that ranked in the top 10 in total yards of offense in Week 1. Last year in the NFC Divisional round of the Playoffs Evans grabbed eight of 12 targets for 147 yards and a TD. After scoring twice in Week 1, the dependable veteran has now scored in 12 of his last 18 regular season games. RB Joe Mixon OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Mixon finished as the overall RB2 in PPR (26.8 points) after rushing for a league-high 159 yards and a touchdown in his Texans’ debut. Opposing defenses are not able to stack the box against Houston this season due to the club’s feared passing attack, and Mixon is the beneficiary. The Bears struggled to stop the run in Week 1, allowing 140 rushing yards (5.4 yards per rush) and a TD to the Titans. Mixon draws a Chicago defense that could struggle yet again and make him another week-winning player. ENTER OUR WEEK 2 DRAFT CONTEST! How it Works: First, draft your team using our On-Demand Simulator. Second, try to stack the team with players you think will do well this week. Finally, the highest Week 2 Score wins. (PLUS: You get to see the Thursday Night game and then draft!) Here’s our Week 2 Player Rankings to help. First, it’s a best-ball contest, so no need to submit a lineup. We’ll optimize the best one. Second, you just sit back and watch your team climb the leaderboard. Weekly Prizes and a Grand Prize at the end of the season! Finally, The Grand Prize Winner (highest individual week of the season) gets to choose from the amazing prizes below. If you don’t know just how awesome and amazing the Panini Flawless Football briefcase is, make sure and watch the video starting at the 8-minute mark! Trading cards are back! MEMBER PERK! Fulltime Members get 5 Free On-Demand Drafts each month in our contest! DRAFT YOUR WEEKLY TEAM and enter your REDEMPTION CODE you received by email.
Running Back Surging Up Draft Boards
Emerging Running Back Surging Up Draft Boards As the calendar flips to August, the fantasy football landscape begins taking shape. Players are moving up and down draft boards based on training camp performances, coach-speak, or injuries. Despite scoring 14 touchdowns in 31 career NFL games, fantasy managers often overlook Kansas City’s Isiah Pacheco due to his lack of production in the passing game. Following the departure of veteran back Jerrick McKinnon that is all about to change in 2024. Betting vs Fantasy Movement Series: Big Expectations For Rookie RB | Elite RB Vegas is Fading | RB Ascending Up Early Draft Boards | WR Who May Struggle To Fulfill ADP Value A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Here at FullTime Fantasy, we’ve assembled the very best high-stakes players in the world; 5 of the Top 10 World-Ranked players, and one of the top RANKERS in the country — to help you win your Fantasy Football league. Nobody else in the industry can bring you this type of information. Also, we host the Fantasy Football World Championships and these players are gracious enough to lend us a hand to help promote the very best content in the industry. Profile Fresh off career highs in rushing yards (935, rushing touchdowns (7), receptions (44), receiving yards (244), and receiving touchdowns (2) the hard-nosed back is poised to have career-highs in his third season playing with Patrick Mahomes & Co. Isiah Pacheco is the first running back in NFL history to start and win two Super Bowl titles in his first two seasons! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XFkUhAfe0V — Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) July 30, 2024 Subsequently, the former Rutgers standout, who was being drafted in the fourth round of early July Circa Championships, is flying up recent draft boards. The powerful talent currently owns an ADP of 18,7 / RB7 being grabbed in the middle of the second round. VEGAS ODDSMAKERS & FANTASY OWNERS LISTENING TO ANDY REID Kansas City head coach Andy Reid recently shared that Pacheco is ready to fill the club’s third-down role – making him a potential bell-cow back. “Pacheco is ready to be able to do all that,” said Reid. “He’s good with the protections, he’s good with the technique and fundamentals, he can run all the routes, he’s got great hands.” #Chiefs HC Andy Reid on which RB will fill the 3rd-down role, with Jerick McKinnon gone: “[Isiah Pacheco]’s ready to be able to do all that. He’s good with the protections, he’s good with the technique and fundamentals, he can run all the routes, he’s got great hands.” Reid… pic.twitter.com/zQmPg0TkNI — The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 2, 2024 Oddsmakers, who initially installed Pacheco with a rushing yard betting projection of 850.5, have raised the tailback up to a betting demand of 900.5 at DraftKings. A solid investment for bettors involves his receiving yards market of 250.5 – a number he will go beyond with ease in an expanded role as the third-down back. “In Circa Championship drafts held in late July, Pacheco was an absolute steal in the late third/early fourth round. That ADP value is a thing of the past as the starting RB for the defending Super Bowl champion is now a high second-round pick. ” – Frankie Taddeo Isiah Pacheco gets some big blocks and finds the end zone. 😤 @isiah_pachecoRB 📺: #KCvsNYJ on NBC⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/cLJQ8MOopx pic.twitter.com/Kggr7MHXay — NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2023 Finally, in the Chiefs’ postseason run to a third championship in the last four years, Pacheco was on the field for 74% of the snaps. That heavy workload will carry over to this season. With a dangerous quartet of Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy at the disposal of three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, opposing defenses will not be able to stack the box to stop Pacheco. Expect the hard-running back to continue his upward career trajectory – becoming a sure-fire top-end RB1 in fantasy football in 2024. Get on the Road to the World Championships for just $50 by visiting the FFWC Draft Lobby today! Here’s how it works: Entering and winning a $50 Starter League will earn you a seat at the 2025 Las Vegas Fantasy Championships ($349 entry). Winning that league will win you a seat at the 2026 World Championships. –OR– Skip the line and directly enter the 2024 World Championships ($1,925 entry) today by securing your spot with a $200 deposit! GET THE LATEST FANTASY TIPS AND CONTEST UPDATES Subscribe to our FREE newsletter to win Weekly Prizes + Breaking Fantasy news & updates!
2024 Preseason Pro: Jody Smith (Free)
NFL training camps are underway. That means the fantasy football draft season has finally arrived! Our annual Flagship Feature is called Preseason Pro. This 2024 Preseason Pro: Jody Smith introduces the exclusive insight you can find only at FullTime Fantasy. Here at FullTime Fantasy, we’ve assembled the very best high-stakes players in the world; 5 of the Top 10 World-Ranked players, and one of the top RANKERS in the country — to help you win your Fantasy Football league. Nobody else in the industry can bring you this type of information. Also, we host the Fantasy Football World Championships and these players are gracious enough to lend us a hand to help promote the very best content in the industry. Each of them is putting their reputation on the line for all to see and is providing us with their: ONE Top Sleeper, ONE Breakout, ONE Bust ONE Comeback, and ONE late-round Stash & Cash. to help you with your upcoming draft. However- it’s only one per category! They don’t know what anyone else has submitted so you’re getting the genuine gut check from the best players in the world. High rollers have offered some of them hundreds of dollars for this kind of private advice. And that’s just for just one opinion. Here you’re getting no less than SEVEN, and Preseason Pro continues to be the elite product of the fantasy season. This year’s Preseason Pro picks are included FREE with your FullTime Fantasy Membership! What makes their opinion so worthy? Simple. They win. Year in and year out they’re winners. While some may ask, “Why would they help me?”, there is no question that when their pride and integrity are on the line, they step up and make bold calls to help others. When we have questions on Sunday, this is who we call. We’re essentially bringing our high-stakes connections to FullTime Fantasy. When your league is on the line, who do you trust? A magazine that contains out-of-date news? No. Those days are over. Not all experts are considered equal. Starting with Jody Smith who has more than 14 years of content experience. Jody was also previously Fantasy Pro’s Most Accurate Rankings Expert. Also, Jody topped the betting leaderboards in 2020 and is a top-10 overall ranker for multi-year accuracy! He’s consistently been one of the best in the business for a long time! Finally, Jody recommended Jahmyr Gibbs last season and predicted Rachaad Whtie’s breakout. Let’s see what he forecasts this year with our 2024 Preseason Pro: Jody Smith. — BREAKOUT — Isiah Pacheco (RB) Kansas City Chiefs Identifying feature backs on good offenses is key to building winning fantasy rosters. With Jerick McKinnon gone, Isiah Pacheco has a clear path to a three-down role in one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. And it’s a role we already know Pacheco can thrive in. In his sophomore season, Pacheco saw a big boost in usage. Particularly as a receiver where he reeled in 44-of-49 targets. McKinnon accounted for an additional 32 targets. Nobody else on KC’s roster is a threat to usurp Pacheco on passing downs. Additionally, Pacheco focused all offseason on improving his pass-catching skills. Pacheco already proved he could be an elite producer. Despite missing three games, he posted RB15 fantasy numbers a year ago. However, it was his production in games where he had a workhorse role that is indicative that Pacheco has big-time upside. Including the postseason, Pacheco averaged 19.6 PPR points per game in the nine games he topped 20 touches. That would have ranked as the RB3 in 2023. With only Clyde Edwards-Helaire an unproven Deneric Prince behind him on the depth chart, Pacheco appears to be in line for massive usage. Finally, Pacheco will command most of the red-zone work in an offense that significantly improved in the offseason. Isiah Pacheco checks all the boxes to contend for top-5 fantasy RB numbers. Consequently, he’s my favorite breakout pick this summer. — SLEEPER — Christian Kirk (WR) Jacksonville Jaguars Maybe it’s last year’s second-half collapse that has early fantasy drafters avoiding Jacksonville. That seems like an egregious error. Even in a “down” year for Doug Pederson’s squad, the Jags offense ranked ninth in passing, 13th in scoring, and sixth with 65.5 plays per game. More importantly, Calvin Ridley and his 76/1,016/8 line on 136 targets are gone. The team did add Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. However, Christian Kirk is this group’s clear top dog. Before Ridley’s signing, Kirk acted as Jacksonville’s No. 1 option and had a strong connection with QB Trevor Lawrence. Kirk finished as a fantasy WR1 in that role back in 2022. That season, he ranked top-15 in targets (133), grabs (84), yards (1,108), and scores (8). Thomas is a promising prospect but could take time to adjust to NFL-caliber defenses. Davis is the logical choice to replace Ridley as the club’s main deep threat. However, Davis is wildly inconsistent. It all adds up to a surplus of targets for TE Evan Engram and Kirk. Kirk is being selected outside of the top 30 wideouts in early fantasy drafts. He has a proven track record and will overcome the Jags’ tough strength of schedule with sheer volume. I believe Kirk will contend for top-15 fantasy numbers as the club’s No. 1 wideout. He’s one of my favorite sleepers to target in the middle rounds as a WR3. — BUST — De’Von Achane (RB) Miami Dolphins Before you tag @FantasyRecepits and @OldTakesExposed, hear me out. I love De’Von Achane. Think he’s an elite talent. However, I firmly believe he is being drafted above his ceiling. Therefore, he’s a player I expect to have little or no exposure to in 2024. That might not define the traditional “bust,” but the hype on Achane has lifted his ADP inside the top 20 overall. I don’t think people are considering the risk. First, Miami brought back Raheem Mostert. Although Mostert’s role in the passing game declined, he remained the team’s leading rusher. Especially in the red
2024 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview
2024 Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview Having won 3 of the past 5 Superbowls, including going back-to-back, the Kansas City Chiefs went into the offseason with their eyes set on becoming the first NFL team to three-peat. Patrick Mahomes and
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2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
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Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Patrick Mahomes
After dominating the fantasy world in his first season as a starter for Kansas City in 2018 (5,369 combined yards with 52 touchdowns), Mahomes ranked 7th (334.55 – two missed games), 4th (429.80 – 15 starts), 4th (427.25), and 1st (482.30) in fantasy scoring in four-point scoring formats. He has a 64-16 career record in the regular season, with five post-season trips (11-3 – two Super Bowl wins and a loss).
In 2021, Mahomes set career-highs in completions (436), pass attempts (658), rushing attempts (66), and rushing yards (381). His season started with success over four games (1,310 combined yards with 15 touchdowns). Other than Week 10 (406/5), he lost his luster from Week 5 to Week 14 (269 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns over nine starts). However, Mahomes did regain his stride throwing the ball in the playoffs (404/5, 378/3, and 275/3).
His high floor continued last season, leading to almost identical value in completions (435) and pass attempts (648). Mahomes set a career-high in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41), along with a high floor in the run game (61/358/4). He gained 20 yards or more on 73 pass plays, with 13 of those passes hitting the 40-yard mark.
Over his first 10 starts, Mahomes scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in six starts (38.50, 33.40, 32.15, 39.60, 35.45, and 30.75) but only once (36.10) over his final 10 matchups. He had three touchdowns or more in 11 of his 20 contests (including the postseason).
Fantasy Outlook: Mahomes is the first quarterback off the board in 2023 after his impactful year. His success relies on Travis Kelce being a beast and Kansas City developing their young wideouts. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice have plenty of talent while lacking proven resumes in the NFL. Mahomes will find a way to average 300 combined yards with a floor of 35 touchdowns.
Other Options: Blaine Gabbert, Shane Buechele, Chris Oladokun
— Running Backs —
The Chiefs’ running backs had the same number of targets (112) over the past three seasons. Their stats fell in a tight range in 2021 (90/824/3) and 2022 (89/826/12), except for touchdowns. Kansas City ran the ball better last year (351/1,617/14 – 4.6 yards per rush). Their running backs combined for 2,443 yards with 26 touches and 89 catches (28.78 FPPG).
Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco flew up draft boards last August after flashing his speed (4.37 40-yard dash) in training camp. He has an aggressive running style, but his lack of patience and vision sometimes leads to dead ends. His first instinct is to run outside while his pass protection skills need work. Pacheco will have low value in the passing game early in his career.
Kansas City added him with the 30th selection in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Over four seasons at Rutgers, he rushed for 2,442 yards on 563 carries with 18 touchdowns. He caught 47 of his 68 targets for 249 yards and one score. Pacheco gained only 4.3 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per catch.
Over the first half of his rookie season, the Chiefs gave him a minimal opportunity, leading to 210 combined yards with one touchdown and 13 catches on 47 touches. His best outcome came in Week 1 (12/62/1). Kansas City featured him on early downs (163/830/5) over their final 12 matchups with only 16 catches for 182 yards. He gained 5.1 yards per rush while averaging 12.27 fantasy points in PPR formats down the stretch. Pacheco failed to score more than 16.50 fantasy points in any game.
Fantasy Outlook: Kansas City will give him 15 touches a game this year, but he’ll have short value in the passing game in most weeks. I expect about 1,300 yards with eight to 10 touchdowns and about 30 catches. In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Pacheco is the 22nd running back selected.
Jerick McKinnon
After gaining momentum in 2017 with the Vikings (991 combined yards with five touchdowns and 51 catches), injuries cost McKinnon all of the following two seasons with the 49ers. San Francisco gave him 47 touches over their first four games in 2020, leading to 295 combined yards with four touchdowns and 13 catches. They phased him out of the running back rotation in most weeks over their final 12 games (277 combined yards with two touchdowns and 20 catches).
The Chiefs only gave McKinnon 25 touches in 2021, leading to…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE CHIEFS IN 2023?
To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players
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