The Fuego Pit – Week 3 NFL DFS
QUARTERBACKS Kirk Cousins – This is supposed to be a high scoring game in prime time Sunday night. Cousins played well last year in the spotlight and the Raiders defense doesn’t scare me. He plays better at home and should finally connect with Terelle Pryor this week. You can pair him with Pryor, Jamison Crowder or even roll naked versus the Raiders. Matt Stafford – A good matchup at home versus the Falcons secondary. You can also play him naked this week or pair him with Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, or even Theo Riddick. The Lions running game leaves a lot to be desired and Stafford should have to throw the ball to keep with Atlanta. Cam Newton – Facing the Saints defense at home, Newton is in a great spot this week. If he doesn’t get it done against New Orleans, then he is never going to have a big game. I could see him running in a score, as well as throwing for a few touchdowns. Another QB you can play naked, or pair with Kelvin Benjamin or Devin Funchess. HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD Andy Dalton – Dalton and the Bengals offense has yet to score a touchdown this season. That will change this week with a new offensive coordinator at the helm. Add that to the not so good Packers secondary and Dalton and the Bengals should finally find the end zone. He is super cheap on both sites and will give you some salary relief if you are looking to spend up elsewhere. Other QBs in play – Aaron Rodgers, though I am nervous about his offensive line. Derek Carr in what is supposed to be a high scoring affair. Marcus Mariota is at home versus a Seattle defense that isn’t as good as it has been. Matt Ryan is a good play, though nervous that the Falcons keep the ball on the ground with Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Value QBs – Deshone Kizer, Andy Dalton  RUNNING BACKS Le’Veon Bell – I don’t see Bell being held in check for three weeks straight. The first two games of the season were kind of like his preseason, as he didn’t play this summer. He still got 27 carries last week and four catches for 31 touches. That should continue this week and he will score for the first time this year. Fire him up in all formats. Marshawn Lynch – Lynch has looked good his first two games coming back after a year off. He should continue to be involved in the offense especially if the game stays close. The Redskins defense does not scare me and I could see him breaking a long one. Look for him to get back in the end zone again Sunday night in prime time. Jay Ajayi – The Dolphins looked committed to running ball last week, feeding Ajayi the rock 28 times for 122 yards. He also caught two balls out of the backfield for a total of 30 touches. I am bullish on Ajayi this season. He gets to go against the hapless Jets this weekend and should have a monster game. Be careful though, as he has been limited at practice this week. Will update Sunday morning. HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD LeSean McCoy –  McCoy should go low owned this week going up against the Broncos defense. People will look at last week and how they shut down Zeke. That game got out of hand early, and the Cowboys gave up. McCoy is the kind of running back that can get it done versus any team he faces. He also has the ceiling we are looking for to take down a GPP. I will have some shares of Shady on Sunday. Other RBs in play – C.J. Anderson, Ty Montgomery, I. Crowell, D. Freeman, M. Gordon RB – T. Coleman, J. Stewart, J. Rodgers, Jordan Howard is only $4900 on DraftKings.  WIDE RECEIVERS A.J. Green – The Bengals have looked horrible on offense so far through two games. So bad that they fired their offensive coordinator already. If the Bengals are going to keep this game close, they will need to throw the ball. Green seems to be everyone’s darling play this week and I am on board. If the new coordinator is smart, he will get his best player the ball as much as he can. Terelle Pryor – I am going back to Pryor one more time this week. If you like narratives, he is playing against the team that drafted him in primetime. I think this is the week he breaks out versus a shaky Raiders defense. Keenan Allen – Allen faces the Chiefs on Sunday in a division game at home. The Chiefs defense is a little banged up with safety Eric Berry out. It looks like Allen is fully recovered from last year’s injury and is getting the targets we expected. He has 10 in each of his first two games catching 14 of the 20. His touchdown upside will always be limited but it is hard to ignore all those targets. HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD Desean Jackson – I am going back to DeSean this week especially on DraftKings at only $4600. He just missed a touchdown last week, as he was held on the play and still almost caught the ball. With Xavier Rhodes locking down Mike Evans, Jackson should get his fair share of targets. He is a boom or bust type of player, but when he booms he can win you a tournament. Other WRs in play – A. Cooper, M. Crabtree, J. Crowder, A. Jeffrey, M. Bryant, T.Y. Hilton Value WRs –  J. Matthews, E. Decker, R. Matthews, D. Funchess, M. Jones, R. Higgins  TIGHT ENDS Jared Cook – If you want a piece of the primetime game at lower ownership, Cook is your best bet. Of all the offensive players in this game, he should be the lowest owned with most people flocking to Crabtree, Cooper and
Monday/Thursday Week 2 Primer – Fuego Steve
Monday/Thursday Slate Week 2 We have an interesting short slate or small slate, as they are called this week. This is one of those slates we can make any lineup we wish practically on DraftKings. You can use the highest players at every position, except defense on this slate. Fanduel it is a little more difficult, but if OBJ is out makes it very easy to construct lineups. Other times on short slates, it is hard to get in several of the highest priced players, let alone all of them. Look for my short slate advice article coming soon. This slate is one of the ugliest mini slates I have ever seen, but that isn’t going to stop us from playing it and making money. I am going to break it down by position this week as opposed to by teams. New York Giants vs Detroit Lions (Giants -3.5, O/U 42) San Francisco 49ers vs L.A. Rams (Rams -2.5, O/U 40.5) Quarterbacks: BEST: Gross, go Matthew Stafford or Eli Manning This is not the slate we get to choose between Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. I like Matt Stafford, but he is going on the road, off the turf, against what should be a tough Giants defense. I do not like either QB in the Thursday game, so that only leaves him and Eli Manning. In general, if there are no stud options on the slate, you want to choose QBs from the Monday night game. I will be rolling out these two in my lineups, mixing them both in a few different ones. The Giants offense looked horrible last week without Odell Beckham. Even if he returns to action tonight, I am not banking on a great night from OBJ or Eli. WORST: Jared Goff, Brian Hoyer The game play on Thursday night’s the past few seasons has not been very good for the offenses, especially the passing attacks. I am not high on either of these quarterbacks in general, let alone playing and game planning on short rest. Stick to one of the Monday night QBs. HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD: None Running Back: BEST: Todd Gurley; Carlos Hyde Unfortunately, the two best running back options on the slate play on Thursday night. In addition, neither one of them really excites me, but I do have them projected higher than the backs on Monday. Gurley would be my top option, because he has the better matchup of the two. Also, he has been getting the touches and has scored in each of the first two games. WORST: Giants running backs Shave Vereen I guess is in play due to the amount of catches he got last week, more on DraftKings with the full PPR. However, neither he nor Paul Perkins are great options. Vereen didn’t carry the ball once last week and Perkins only got eight attempts. Without OBJ, this offense looks pitiful. If Beckham plays, I would have more confidence in Perkins, but we are still in wait and see mode. HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD: Detroit running backs Theo Riddick and Amir Abdullah also don’t get me too excited. Abdullah at least got the carries last week, though he did nothing with them. He only rushed for 30 yards on 15 carries. That’s a whole two yards per carry. Encouraging though was he did get four targets, catching three of them. If however, the Lions are in catch up mode, Riddick will be in the game. He caught six of his seven targets last week including a touchdown. Either one of them is viable, choosing which one is the hard part. Wide Receiver: BEST: Golden Tate, Pierre Garcon This slate is really looking worse and worse as I go along. We have one stud wide receiver on the slate and he may not even play. If Beckham doesn’t play, Golden Tate is your next best option. He caught 10 balls last week on 12 targets for 107 yards. However, that was at home on the turf and they were throwing the ball all second half. There are no real stars on the Lions offense, Tate is about as close as there is. Pierre Garcon is my second favorite option, though don’t love it. Garcon goes from playing with Kirk Cousins last season to Brian Hoyer this season. Certainly, a downgrade in my mind. Can he get going this week versus the Rams? I don’t know, but we don’t have very many other options. Sterling Shepard and Brandon Marshall are in play, but I don’t love either of them. WORST: Rams Wide-outs Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin are the four wide receivers currently for the Rams. Watkins has seven catches for 88 yards through the first two games. Austin has two catches and Woods has four so far. Not what we are trying to target at the wide receiver position. Kupp is the only one that has scored so far, catching four balls week one with a score. As bad as our options are this week, I don’t see me going to any of these guys unless maybe in a super large field GPP. HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD: Kenny Golladay Week one Kenny Golladay had a huge game catching two touchdowns with four catches for 69 yards. I had heard good things about him, but is he going to score two touchdowns again this week? I highly doubt it. But, sometimes when a quarterback starts to get in the end zone with a certain receiver, he tends to look for him more often. He did play 44 snaps week one, only 10 less than teammate Marvin Jones. My concern is that he will be more highly owned than he should be due to his big game last week. Jones may be the lowest owned of the three Lions and could be sneaky as well. Tight End: BEST: Evan Engram; Eric Ebron Evan Engram looked decent last week, catching four of his
The Fuego Pit – NFL Week 2 GPP Plays
QUARTERBACKS Aaron Rodgers – One of the top quarterbacks on the board, in both price and projections, he is a great play this week. Rodgers has had success against the Falcons in the past and I expect that to continue Sunday night. Being the primetime game, with the highest over/under on the board, this game will be popular including Rodgers. You can pair any of his wide-outs with him and/or even Ty Montgomery in a stack. If playing more than one lineup, get some shares of him. Matt Ryan – I will have a lot of Matt Ryan on Fanduel as he is $900 cheaper than Rodgers. On DraftKings they are within $100 of each other, so can go either one. This game should be a shoot-out as they have been in the past. He will be popular like Rodgers, but I never worry about QB ownership too much. This game is chalk, but it is good chalk and think we must have a piece of it. Tom Brady – Brady is in a great spot on the road against the Saints. A pissed Brady, is a dangerous Brady and he should eat against this porous New Orleans defense. I could see him spreading the ball around and hammering Brandin Cooks with targets in Cooks homecoming. My only concern is if they get close Mike Gillislee will take some touchdowns. HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD Jameis Winston – This is more of a feeling play than based on any solid statistics. The Bucs game was canceled last week due to the hurricane. They have had quite a bit of time to prepare for this game versus the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense generated only two sacks last week and zero turnovers at home versus the Falcons. I think Winston and the Bucs come out firing and he connects a bunch with Mike Evans and hits a long one or two to Desean Jackson. Other QBs in play – Cam Newton should be low owned. Russell Wilson also should carry lower ownership than he should after a bad game last week. Big Ben is always good at home. Tyrod Taylor is my sneaky play at QB this week.  RUNNING BACKS Ty Montgomery – Combine his low price and favorable matchup, Ty Montgomery will be mega chalk for sure. However, this is good chalk and almost a must play. He got 23 touches last week including 19 carries. Whether he can handle a full running back workload may have been answered week one. At least while he is healthy, I see the Packers sticking with him, even near the goal line. The Falcons allow running backs to catch a lot of balls out of the backfield. True to form, they gave up 8 catches to Tarik Cohen last week. Fade him at your own risk. I AM GOING OVERWEIGHT ON HIM IN ALMOST EVERY LINEUP Melvin Gordon –  Gordon is another back who will be popular on Sunday. I don’t mind playing him either at high ownership. He faces a Miami Dolphins defense that was not very good against the run last season. First home game for the Chargers in L.A., look for them to control the clock on the ground. I can see Melvin getting 20+ touches and a touchdown or two. LeVeon Bell – He should bounce back this week after a pitiful week one performance. My hope is people feel burned and he won’t be as highly owned as he should be this week. Look for a big game running and catching the ball out of the backfield. He gets in the end zone this week as well, at least once if not more. SHOULD GET LOT CARRIES, NO BRADFORD, COULD BE BLOW OUT. HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD Ezekiel Elliott – Elliott is in a perceived bad spot going against the Denver Broncos this weekend. However, they are not nearly as good against the run, than they are against the pass. If you don’t want to pay up for Lev Bell, he would be a nice pivot at lower ownership. His ceiling isn’t as high as Bell, but with no more David Johnson, he and LeSean McCoy are the next best fantasy backs. Other RBs in play – Marshawn Lynch, look for the Raiders to take control of this game early, then feed Lynch. Todd Gurley is in another good spot this week. Jacquizz Rodgers at only $4400 on DK is the starting running back for the Bucs while Doug Martin is out. Mark Ingram, can get a piece of the Saints/Pats game at lower ownership. Should catch a lot of balls. Jonathan Stewart also only $4400 on DK, there are a lot of low end options this week at running back.  WIDE RECEIVERS Mike Evans – I like Mike Evans in general, and think he is going to have a break out year this season. With DeSean Jackson now on the Bucs, he has someone opposite him to stretch the field. Maybe this will limit him to at least only double coverage and not triple coverage. He doesn’t get much after the catch, but that’s because he is downfield and covered so tight. Yet he still comes up with the catches and touchdowns. Tampa Bay should shake the rust of early, and look for Evans to have a good game especially if Prince Amukamara is out for the Bears. Randall Cobb – He is my favorite Green Bay receiver this week. Cobb had 13 targets last week, catching 9 balls for 85 yards. Hard for me to imagine him doing any less this week, unless Rodgers targets Davante Adams more. Even if he does, I think there is plenty to go around in this game including Jordy Nelson as well. Tyreek Hill – I really like Hill this week and may pair him with the Chiefs defense (see Chiefs write-up below). He is now clearly the number one guy in K.C. with Jeremy Maclin gone. He had a huge week one versus the Patriots
The Chalk Report – Fuego Steve
The first week of the NFL season went pretty much as expected regarding the popular plays. The obvious chalk of the week on DraftKings was Zach Ertz at his ridiculous salary of only $3500. As expected, he was the highest owned player in the Milly Maker coming in at 41%. Not only was he chalk, but he was what we call “good chalk”. He was mispriced, in a great spot against the Skins and was a must play in cash games. It paid off as he scored 17.3 DK points. Todd Gurley was another player I expected to be highly owned and to be paired with the Rams defense. This was the case as he came in at almost 31% and the Rams defense was 22%. Le’Veon Bell 34% and David Johnson 25% were the next two highest owned on DK and the two highest on Fanduel. It will be interesting to see what Bell’s ownership is going to be the rest of the year without D.J. playing. Does Johnson’s ownership get split up among the next best backs like Ezekiel Elliot and LeSean McCoy? Or more likely, depending on the slate, his ownership may get extremely high. To fade or not to fade Le’Veon may be the question we are asking ourselves the rest of the year. Doug Baldwin at his reasonable price on DK was the highest owned wide receiver coming in at 22.5%. This eclipsed Antonio Brown 14% by quite a bit. Brown was the highest owned on Fanduel at 21%, one point ahead of Julio Jones. Other expected popular receivers; Larry Fitzgerald, Kelvin Benjamin, Terrelle Pryor, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper were between 13% – 20%. On the other end of the spectrum were two of my favorite plays of the week. I mentioned them on the podcast and on SiriusXM with Dr. Roto and Adam Ronis. They were Matthew Stafford and the Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Stafford was the highest scoring player on Fanduel and second highest on DK just below Brown. He was only rostered on 1%- 2% of all entries. I mentioned how the Jags would be contrarian on DK because of their high price but were in a great spot. To me, they were a lock on Fanduel at only $4100. They came through big time with 10 sacks and a defensive touchdown at less than 10% on Fanduel and only 1% on DK. Leonard Fournette had a great rookie debut rushing for 100 yards and scoring a touchdown. But no one, including myself, was going to pay up for him week one as he was less than 3% owned. This week there are two games that should draw a lot of ownership. New England visits New Orleans in what is expected to be a high scoring game with an over/under that has gone up to 55.5 points. The Sunday night hammer game is the Packers at the Falcons with an O/U of 53.5 points. The four most popular QBs should come from these games. The night game is going to get the highest ownership of any game on the main slate. People love to have players left going in the night game to begin with. Add the highest total on the slate with two high-powered offenses and they will be chalk. Ty Montgomery and Devonta Freeman as well as Jordy Nelson and Julio Jones will be extremely popular. Check back later in the week to see where we can pivot if we choose to fade them. Look for players that had a good week one to be somewhat popular as well. Players like Kareem Hunt, Stefon Diggs, Tarik Cohen (who I am staying away from), and Dalvin Cook will be chalky. One way to get lower ownership on players is to do the opposite. Roster players that were popular last week that didn’t perform. Kelvin Benjamin, Fitzgerald, and Martavis Bryant come to mind for example. The general public is much more likely to roster players that did well the week before, than did poorly. Especially if they burned them the week before. In fact, I wonder if we can get Lev Bell lower owned than he should be because of his subpar performance last week. He burned a lot of people as the chalk play, and with the rest being burned by D.J., maybe people will be scared to pay up this week. I am hoping we get low ownership on the two teams that did not play last week, the Bucs and Dolphins. Not being on people’s minds, they may not gravitate to these players. I like Tampa Bay this week including Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers who is filling in for the suspended Doug Martin. I also like Jay Ajayi on Miami going against the Chargers. Another way we can get lower ownership is talented players that were not popular last week, but are in better spots week two. Players like Jordan Matthews or Greg Olsen may get overlooked but still have upside to get at low ownership. Remember, not all chalk is bad chalk. The saying goes “chalk is chalk for a reason”. Players in good spots are naturally going to be higher owned than players in bad spots. Finding the players in perceived bad situations, but that could do well (like Stafford last week) is the key to pivoting off the chalk. Listen to the late week podcast and read the articles on dfs.scout.com to determine which popular players to roster and which are best to fade.