NBA Live at 5
DFS Strategy – Contest Selection and Bankroll Management
DFS Strategy Advice – Contest Selection and Bankroll Management Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 By Fuego Steve Today I will be discussing contest selection and how to maximize and manage your bankroll. For your bankroll, set a number you are comfortable being able to invest in a given time period. You can do it yearly, monthly, per sports season, or weekly. Once you have that number, you can determine how much you should spend on one day or a weekend of NFL. Most people do not put more than 5 to 10% of their total bankroll in play. Let’s say you have a $1000 bankroll. You should only play up to $100 at a time. Next, you need to decide where am I going to be putting that money. In other words, which contests will you enter. Some people follow the 80/20 rule. This means you should put 80% of your play in cash games (head to heads, double ups, and 50/50s), and 20% in tournaments, known as GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). Using the $100 example means only $20 goes in to tournaments. This can be hard to do without good discipline. Even if you have the discipline to stick to this rule, which tournaments do you put the $20? One of the hardest things to do in DFS is not enter those big GPPs with five or six figure payouts to first place. I am not saying you can’t play those contests, but that is not where you are going to be making most of your money. Even if you have the ability and the means to max enter 150 lineups, the odds of winning are extremely small with 10,000 or 100,000 entrants. If you are like me, you may not want to grind out cash games and focus mainly on tournaments. I am going to show you the best way to maximize your allotted tournament bankroll. And if you really don’t want to play cash games at all, there are other options to be able to cash on a consistent basis. First, enter single-entry, 3-max and 5-max tournaments. DraftKings has some good 20 max GPPs as well, and Fanduel is starting to follow suit. No one can enter 50 or 150 lineups and therefore, it evens the playing field. In some of these contests you can still win thousands of dollars. Let’s do the simple math. If you put one entry in a 150-max tournament, you have 1/150 or 0.0067% of entries that are allowed. Even if you put just one entry in the 20-max, that number jumps to 1/20 or 0.05%. And if you put one entry in the 3-max, you have 1/3 or 33% of the max entries allowed. You can see the odds increase exponentially the lower you go. I suggest playing as many of these contests as you can before going after the big multi entry GPPs. I will enter all the single entries I can before putting entries in the 150-max contests. The 3-max tournaments are great if you like to do more than one lineup, but don’t have the money to play the 150-max. Second, enter tournaments with as little entrants as possible. In some cases, this means playing higher dollar tournaments if you can afford them. Instead of putting in 10 $3 lineups in a contest, put one lineup in a $25 GPP. For example, in the beginning of the MLB season I was entering a lot of lineups in the $3 to $4 Squeeze on Fanduel. Let’s say I played 50 lineups, I still must beat 16,850 entries to win it all. In addition, these contests are top heavy so if you don’t place in the top five for example, the payouts really drop. I decided to change my strategy and switched over to playing the $100 Homerun. These are normally 65-150 entry field tournaments, with only 2-4 max entries. I have had great success playing in these GPPs even when only entering one lineup. You can’t win $10,000, but you can win $1500-$2500 having to only beat 100 people, as opposed to 17,000. Even to win $1500 in the large field GPP, you still have to finish ahead of nearly 17,000 entrants as opposed to 100. You don’t need to spend $100 a contest either to make money. There are plenty of lower dollar, small entry field tournaments you can enter. Sticking with Fanduel, here are some good NFL contests they offer; The $5 Small Spike single entry has 470 entries. First place pays $250. The $10 Small Scramble single entry has 352 entries. First place pays out $400. The $25 Small Sweep single entry has only 94 entrants and pays out $400 to first place. These are some examples of single entry, lower field tournaments where you can still get 10x to 40x ROI (return on investment). This is much more appealing to some than just being able to double their money. Yet, it is closer to a cash game as you can’t win those big payouts. However, stick with these and you can start to build that bankroll. As your bankroll grows, your contest selection can change if you want. Here is an example from this week’s Primetime slate. My Primetime slate lineup was in contests for a total of $179. I put $100 in a small Blitz contest that paid out $800 to first. I entered $5, $10 and $25 small single entry contests. I then sprinkled in a couple $2, 10-max contests and played the $5 Small Rush. I tossed it in a $1 satellite to next week’s millionaire and just in case I hit the nuts, threw it in the $25 Bomb and $4 Showdown, which are multi entry contests. I came in 38th of 2,353 and 1,657th of 88,235 in the two big multi entry GPPS winning a total of $165. Not too bad, however, my total winnings off the $179 was $1,695. So where did I make my money? Obviously, from the
Fuego Steve’s NBA Cheat Sheet 11/17/17
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. These are my favorite plays at each position and maybe a value play or two. The players listed are in no particular order, as I am giving choices to help build your lineups. If you didn’t read my write up yesterday this is what I wrote “Super small slate tonight. Hard to differentiate. Enter the single-entry and 3-max tournaments. Prepare to tie if in a large field GPP on Fanduel at least.” I still say enter those, but tonight with 11 games many more places you can go. You can enter larger field GPPs tonight without having to worry about a tie. I do think a more balanced lineup tonight does well, as opposed to stars and scrubs. Point Guard Jrue Holiday – going against Denver who have third worst DVP at point guard Reggie Jackson – good spot versus Darren Collinson Jeff Teague – going against Dallas who have second worst DVP at point guard Goran Dragic – only put up 28 FD points against the Wizards two days ago. I think that goes up tonight Dennis Smith Jr. – more bad DVP, like playing Teague and Smith together Kyle Lowry – no one on the Knicks should be able to cover him Shooting Guard Dennis Mitchell – really like with no Ricky Rubio in the lineup Once again, we must choose between KCP and Jordan Clarkson who are both in good spots Austin Rivers – good pivot from the higher priced Lou Williams Tim Hardaway Jr. – only real offense on team outside of K.P. J.R. Smith – if you want to pay down Devin Booker – “only” scored 30 FD points yesterday, could rebound nicely Small Forward Lebron James – the one superstar you may need tonight Brandon Ingram – offense runs through him when he is on the floor Joe Ingles – usage bump with no Rubio OG Anunoby – if Ibaka out, maybe actually gets some usage. Punt play Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – like the price if paying down Harrison Barnes and T.J. Warren – higher priced options in play Power Forward Trevor Booker – starting at center tonight and priced very low Kristaps Porzingas – Lou and I discussed his usage being off the charts Blake Griffin – don’t see Crowder being able to stop him Taj Gibson – favorite value play Paul Millsap – going against Anthony Davis doesn’t worry me too much Kyle Kuzma – like his upside in high scoring game Center Greg Monroe – still very cheap on both sites. Could be trap though, he will be highly owned Andre Drummond – favorite high-priced center Karl-Anthony Towns – has picked up his play recently Jonas Valanciunas – not bad if you want to pay down but not all the way to Monroe Jusef Nurkic – Sacramento has the worst DVPs versus centers DeAndre Jordan – should get all the rebounds versus Kevin Love
NBA Today 11/17/17
Fuego Steve’s NBA Cheat Sheet – 11/13/17
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. These are my favorite plays at each position and maybe a value play or two. The players listed are in no particular order, as I am giving choices to help build your lineups. With nine games on the slate tonight there are a lot of places we can go. I don’t see any must plays or must not plays. Steph Curry is now doubtful, which bumps up Klay Thompson for me. Shaun Livingston will be popular at only $3100 on Fanduel and $3500 on DK, but is not my favorite play. He may be starting for Curry, but he has a limited ceiling. Maybe more of a cash game play. I think all of the studs are in play, though prefer James and the Freak over the others. Point Guard Lonzo Ball – factoring in price, he is my favorite play of the day at the position Jrue Holiday – I am probably paying in this mid-tier range tonight Dennis Schroder – another in the mid-priced range I like Jeff Teague – see above T.J. McConnell – if you want to pay down, I like his upside Jamal Murray – if he gets the minutes over Mudiay he produces Shooting Guard Klay Thompson – lock if Curry is out Devin Booker – see every other write-up I do Tim Hardaway Jr. – had a down game after a good stretch, going back to him KCP or Jordan Clarkson – both Lakers shooting guards are in play Will Barton – lock if Harris is out again. Would love to get the news early Small Forward Deep position for a change… Evan Fournier – back to the well again Robert Covington – good floor, ceiling slightly limited with other Philly big men Brandon Ingram – feels like I keep recommending the same guys every time Taurean Prince – see above Kevin Durant – if no Curry, he could go for 50 actual points T.J. Warren – if not playing Booker, like hedging with Warren Power Forward Kristaps Porzingas – not sure who can cover him on the Cavs Aaron Gordon – yup, another player you see me list quite a bit Otto Porter – love his ceiling, that’s why I keep recommending Kyle Kuzma and Julius Randle – Randle lower ownership, Kuzma higher ceiling Dario Saric – if paying down, like quite a bit Marqueese Chriss – another good option if paying down Jonathan Simmons – bounce back game tonight Center Karl-Anthony Towns – Utah doesn’t have anyone to cover him with Gobert out Kevin Love – Jaguar Lou’s lock of the night DeAndre Jordan – like him going up against Embid Joel Embid – fantasy pts per min 1.46 is one of the best tonight and in the league Marcin Gortat – only $4900 on Fanduel with good matchup versus the Kings Check out the NBA chat from 6-7 for last minute lineup questions https://dev.fulltimefantasy.com/nba/chat/ JaguarLou and I will be in there to help you
Monday Thursday Primer – 11/13/17
Monday-Thursday 11/13/17 Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (Panthers -8.5, O/U 38) Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers -7, O/U 44) We have a couple of ugly games in my opinion on this two-game slate. Outside of Lev Bell and Antonio Brown we have no real superstars either. This might be a good one to do multiple lineups, mixing and matching some players. Quarterbacks Cam Newton – I can’t believe I am recommending playing him again, but he looks like one of the best choices on this slate, if not, dare I say the best choice. We all know his upside and he can still run one in from time to time. Unfortunately, I do not like his price, as he is $1000 more than Big Ben on Fanduel. Big Ben and Marcus Mariota would be my next best choices especially since they are cheaper than Newton. I don’t care that he played well last week, I am not rostering Jay Cutler. Running Back Le’Veon Bell – Must play on this slate. There is no Zeke, Kareem Hunt, Fournette, or any other high-priced workload running back in either of these two games besides Bell. Get him in your lineups and don’t worry that he will be 90% owned. Christian McCaffrey – Almost a must play with Bell, but not quite. He finally got over 10 carries last week and it paid off. If they let him run the ball and he still gets 5+ catches a game, his fantasy value will shoot through the roof (as will his price). Demarco Murray – If you aren’t pairing the two above together, Murray is the only other running back I trust on this slate (and I use the word trust lightly). He finally had a big game yesterday. But on a short week with Derrick Henry in the mix it still makes me nervous. Wide Receiver Antonio Brown – It might be tough to fit Bell, McCaffrey and Brown in your lineup. However, if you make one you like, I am 100% behind it. If not, probably would play Brown and Bell and drop down from McCaffrey. Almost must play. JuJu Smith-Schuster – He’s been on fire the past few weeks and his price has gone up accordingly. Big Ben is clearly targeting him and it’s paying off. Devante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills – Once again, I don’t like their QB, but I like the Dolphins wide-outs. One of them should have a good day against the Carolina secondary. I think I like Parker more for his price in GPPs and Landry more in cash. I prefer the Titans receivers over the Panthers if going elsewhere. Tight End Delanie Walker – Another ugly tight end slate for us this week. Walker got injured at the end of the game yesterday, but is probably for Thursday. I know Steve Renner won’t argue when I say he is clearly the most talented player at his position on this slate. If you can afford him, I would do it. Ed Dickson – He would be my second choice for the tight end position if you want to save some money. Defense Carolina Panthers – $5800 is steep to pay on Fanduel, but they are clearly the defense to own on this slate and will be popular. They are facing Jay Cutler, enough said. Pittsburgh Steelers – I prefer to play the defenses from a home team, so the Steelers would be my second option. Miami Dolphins – If you want to pay all the way down for the lowest owned defense I don’t mind it. Cam can make stupid mistakes from time to time, maybe they get a pick six. Kicker I prefer Chris Boswell and Graham Gano over the other two kickers on the slate. Though Ryan Succop has done well this year, I expect the Titans to be trailing on Thursday.
NBA Podcast – 11/13/17
The Fuego Pit featuring Dr. Roto – NFL Week 10
NBA Live at 5
Fuego Steve’s NBA GPP Cheat sheet – 11/9/17
NBA GPP Cheat Sheet Prices listed are Fanduel unless otherwise noted. My NBA articles will mostly focus on Fanduel lineup construction since besides center, you need to play two at each position. The players recommended are usually still good plays on DraftKings unless the pricing is drastically different. Also, many players on DraftKings have dual position eligibility or may be listed at a different position. I will try to mention if there is a specific good play on DK based on price or position eligibility. These are my favorite plays at each position and maybe a value play or two. The players listed are in no particular order, as I am giving choices to help build your lineups. Listen to podcast for myself and Lou’s best takes on the slate. Completely different lineup construction tonight than last night. Curry was must play last night. There is no must play tonight imo, several high priced decisions to be made. Point Guard John Wall – Like him slightly more than Westbrook for the small savings Russell Westbrook – Pairing them both may be the road to victory tonight T.J. McConnell – Like the DVP matchup and price Jrue Holiday – Favorite of the mid-priced options Kyle Lowry – Don’t love it, but don’t hate it with more upside than paying down Shooting Guard Shooting guard is pretty deep tonight. Lots of places you could go. Jordan Clarkson – At only $4400, best bang for your buck. Could also go KCP Iman Shumpert – Min price on Fanduel and is starting Dwayne Wade – Looks like I am paying down at the position tonight Eric Gordon – The one guy I may pay slightly up for, or possibly DeMar Derozen Norman Powell – Listed as SG, but plays SF. Pelicans don’t defend that spot well Small Forward Brandon Ingram – Price is still right, been consistent Lebron James – Clearly best player at position tonight Kelly Oubre – Punt play Robert Covington – Could pair him with Ingram if not going Lebron Power Forward Ben Simmons – Off to one of the best starts of a rookie season ever! Otto Porter – Has the ceiling for GPPs Dario Saric – Favorite cheap option, just needs the minutes Zach Randolph – Going back to ZeBo tonight is in play still at low price Julius Randle – Lower owned than Kyle Kuzma (though like him too), if he only got 25+ minutes Center DeMarcus Cousins – never can you rule him out of your lineups. May be tough to squeeze him in though if paying up at other spots Clint Capela – man if he could get his ceiling game tonight we would be golden Kevin Love – killed it last game, can he keep it rolling? Jonas Valanciunas – could have ok game opposite Boogie, value play Marcin Gortat – if paying down, don’t mind his price of $5500