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2022 Fantasy Football Fades

Please note: This will be updated again after the Preseason weekend on 8/20. 2.0 is coming! The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to

The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to take down the grand prizes in their favorite tournaments. They are crossing off names one at a time, looking for value, looking for their favorite targets, and avoiding their 2022 fantasy football fades.

Below you can find my 2022 fade list with detailed reasonings and data supporting my choice to pass on players when I am on the clock. But before we begin, I think it’s important to clarify what I mean by fade.

Fading a player does not mean I will not draft a player- There is a point at which every player is draftable; that cost is up for you to decide. However, considering my overall roster portfolios, I roster fewer of these players than the rest, and I think it would be irresponsible or foolish not to own any.

That being said, I often find myself passing on these players due to the draft capital required to acquire them, and I will continue to fade them unless something in the offseason changes the fantasy landscape or their projected outlook.  

Let’s dive into Part One of my 2022 Fade List for the 2022 fantasy football season, looking at quarterbacks and running backs.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow– Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Burrow, and I love his weapons, but I can’t get behind the cost it takes to acquire him in drafts. Burrow is currently being selected as QB6 in early FFWC draft rooms. He is going ahead of Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, to name a few.

Cincinnati’s strength of schedule sits at .536 in 2022. That ranks as the third-highest behind the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. We also need to consider his fantasy shootout schedule (weeks 15-17). Burrow faces the best of the best, starting with the Bucs, Pats, and then Bills. Looking at Joe Burrow’s successes in 2021, we can’t help but think there will be some regression in 2022.

Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%; he was 8th in the league in TD’s, 6th in the league in money throws, 3rd in the league in touchdown rate at 6.5%, 8th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.1%, 2nd in the league in true passing rating, and 3rd in the league in accuracy rating. I know this sounds AMAZING- but that’s the caveat; even after that monstrous season, Burrow finished 2021 as QB8. He would need to outperform those robust statistics to give investors a return on the draft capital necessary to acquire him in drafts. 

Patrick

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FFWC Best Ball Drafts: For Beginners

QB Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson

FFWC Best Ball Drafts: For Beginners Guest Post from Bradley Stalder of FantasyData. It’s officially fantasy football season and Best Ball drafts are in full swing. Recently, I had the pleasure of assembling an FFWC Best Ball squad and the results were fantastic. For those unfamiliar with Best Ball formats, each week teams will accumulate points from an optimized starting roster. There is no lineup setting– the program will optimize automatically. Nine players comprise the starting roster: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRS, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, and 1 D/ST. Per usual settings for Best Ball, there is no FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) Waiver runs in this starter draft. Notable Scoring Settings: 0.05 points per passing yard, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 0.1 points per rushing or receiving yard, 1 point per reception, and heightened defensive scoring. See further scoring details here. Preparation & Philosophy Before Drafting Starting 3 WRs drives up the value of wide receiver, devaluing all the other positions. Prioritizing WRs in both the early and middle rounds would be necessary. Knowing that wide receiver is the most volatile of positions, and needing to start 3, selecting anchor receivers early paired with boom-bust partners later on allowed for more flexibility. Stacking an elite fantasy quarterback would be determined by their proto-type. A mobile, Konami Code QB would decrease a desire to correlate with multiple pass-catchers. However, if a defined pocket-passer was selected, their corresponding pass-catcher would be a priority.  Confidently drafting rookie WRs and RBs once starting positions are secured. Rookies tend to improve as the season goes on. Veteran wide receivers and running backs tend to get more banged up or end up on injured reserve as the season goes on.  Entering Round 1 Drafting Davante Adams signaled prioritization of drafting an elite WR early. The next day after I selected him, however, Adams was traded from the Green Bay Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders for two draft picks. While Adams’ value dropped, his 2022 outlook still projects as a top-6 wide receiver. Had Adams been traded the day prior, a selection of Justin Jefferson instead of Adams would have made more sense. Regardless of the perceived loss of value from the Adams trade, leaving Round 1 with a WR1 was a win.  Surprising Pick of Round 1: Austin Ekeler went off the board at the 1.03 as the RB2 behind Jonathan Taylor. Early ADP suggests that Ekeler is selected as the RB5 closer to the 1.09 or so.  Round 2 There was a bit of an RB run between 1.09 and 2.04. In fact, five of the next seven picks were running backs. Alvin Kamara ended the tier of elite running backs. Kamara rushed a  career-high 240 times last season and is the only sure thing on the New Orleans offense. While there are questions about what the offense will look like without Sean Payton, Kamara has eclipsed RB4 in PPR fantasy points per game in four of his five career seasons. The risk of Kamara’s pending legal situation was baked into his fall to 2.05. Surprise Pick of Round 2: CeeDee Lamb fell to the 2.10 as the WR10. Lamb’s ADP has hovered between WR7 and 8 so far this offseason.  Round 3 Selecting Diontae Johnson at 3.08 was straight theft. Only one player with 100+ targets last season had more targets per game than Johnson: Cooper Kupp. Despite Ben Roethlisberger’s documented decline over the past three seasons, Johnson has steadily improved year-over-year, finishing 2021 as the WR8 in PPR fantasy points per game. His floor is unquestioned. Again, leaving the first three rounds with two high-floor elite WRs would allow for more risks later on in the draft. Surprise Pick of Round 3: David Montgomery off the board at RB15 at 3.09. Montgomery’s ADP usually falls outside of RB20.  Round 4 Breece Hall, projected as the first rookie RB off the NFL draft board, was selected at 4.05 and the 17th running back off the board. Over the past seven seasons, the first rookie RB drafted went on to be RB16 in PPR ppg six times. The only one not to score that high? Clyde Edwards-Helaire at RB23. In fact, five of the last seven seasons, the first RB selected off the rookie draft board finished as RB9 or better. Aside from his savory measurables, history is on Breece Hall’s side to out-perform RB17.  Surprise Pick of Round 4: Chris Godwin at WR20. Godwin tore his ACL in week 15 against the Saints. A late-season ACL tear is a risk when a drafter is investing WR20 draft capital in a start-3 WR league.  Round 5 At 5.08, Travis Etienne was the gamble of the draft. Selected right after Najee Harris in the 2021 NFL draft, Etienne missed his whole rookie year due to a lisfranc injury. However, Doug Pederson suggested that Etienne will be able to do off-season and drill work. With 4.50 speed, 1st round draft capital, and 85 receptions in his final two seasons at Clemson with teammate Trevor Lawrence, Etienne’s potential as a needle-moving playmaker in an improved and up-tempo Pederson-led Jacksonville offense.  Surprise Pick of Round 5: Darnell Mooney at 5.01 and the WR23 off the board. While Mooney showed interesting upside last season, his ADP as outside the top-30 of WRs looks like a significant loss of value. Perhaps Mooney wouldn’t have made it back to this team, but it looked like a tier-overstep. Round 6 At 6.05, Lamar Jackson provided relief in the midst of six consecutive quarterback selections. Jackson’s Konami Code accesses a ceiling nearly unmatched by any other quarterback– three top-2 weekly QB finishes in ‘21, five top-5 weekly QB finishes in ‘20, and nine top-3 weekly QB finishes in ‘19. Perhaps the most interesting trend in ‘21 was Jackson’s significant Pass Attempts increase; 34.4 attempts per full game was a 28.7% increase from his previous seasonal career high. Lamar Jackson is also a strong quarterback consideration

2022 FFWC Dynasty Draft 1st Round Recap

Ja'Marr Chase

Our first $1,000 annual entry fee Dynasty Fantasy Football World Championship draft of the season has been taking place this week and there were plenty of surprises and interesting picks. We are going to take a look and recap the first round for you pick by pick.    Pick:1.1 Jamar Chase (WR) Cincinnati Bengals With the first-overall pick in the draft Chase comes off the board. I firmly believe he should be the dynasty WR1 over Justin Jefferson so you can’t go wrong with him here. His future looks as secure as any future can be in this league situationally. He’s the clear-cut WR1 on an ascending offense with a quarterback in Joe Burrow who is just 25 years old and has all the makings of a superstar for the foreseeable long-term future.  Beyond his situation, his talent is overwhelming. I graded him out as the best wide receiver prospect since Mike Evans in 2014. He did not disappoint with an incredible rookie season catching 81 passes for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. The scary thing is he has only scratched the surface of his potential coming into the league in 2021 following a year off from football.    Pick 1.2 Jonathan Taylor (RB) Indianapolis Colts Taylor is the no-brainer No. 2 pick here. I lean slightly towards running backs so he’d be my first-overall pick, but you can’t go wrong with either of those guys. Especially when you consider how true bell-cow backs are becoming rarer and rarer in today’s NFL. He saw 372 touches last season and I don’t anticipate any dip in his usage moving forward. It could even increase.  With all those touches he rushed for over 1,800 yards and 18 TDs in 2021 and tacked on 40 receptions for 360 yards and two TDs through the air. He is as gifted a running back as there is in the league perhaps with exception of Derrick Henry and he gets to run behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. This is a home run pick.  Pick 1.3 Justin Jefferson (WR) Minnesota Vikings After Chase, Jefferson is the obvious WR2 in dynasty currently. This is the exact spot he should be drafted at in every draft. In just two professional seasons he’s already amassed 196 receptions for over 3,000 yards and 17 TDs. After an impressive 88 receptions for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns during his rookie campaign in 2020, he improved across the board catching 108 passes for 1,616 yards and 10 TDs in 2021.  With Adam Theilen now on the downside of his career at age 31, Jefferson should only see his role increase particularly in the end zone. With his skill set, he could easily become a 15 TD receiver. The only question surrounding him is the quarterback situation. Kirk Cousins is not an issue for Jefferson’s production, however, he’ll be 34 when this season starts, and rumors constantly swirl each offseason about the possibility of Minnesota moving on from him. The good news is, he’s not a special talent so it’s not like he’d be irreplaceable if he did make his exit.    Pick 1.4 Najee Harris (RB) Pittsburgh Steelers If this was the Steelers’ offense of even just three years ago, Harris would be the first-overall pick. The talent is there and the opportunity for touches is massive. Unfortunately, there are a ton of questions surrounding this offense now. The quarterback situation is in flux heading into the 2022 NFL Draft and the offensive line has gone from elite to among the worst in the league at a rapid pace.  The offensive line is a huge concern. The loss of Ben Roethlisberger- not so much for me. Whether the quarterback moving forward is Mitch Trubisky, another acquired veteran or they draft a rookie at some point soon; I don’t see it as a detriment. Big Ben has been awful the past few years and declining quickly. I see Trubisky this year, who is the likely Week 1 starter, as an improvement from the Roethlisberger we saw in 2021.   Pick 1.5 Kyle Pitts (TE) Atlanta Falcons Many won’t want to draft a tight end this high. I strongly disagree. Pitts is so far ahead of the pack at this position I wouldn’t let him drop anywhere past pick 1.6 and have no issues with him going at the 1.5. He’s a freak talent and at just 21 years old there is no one close to as valuable. With Travis Kelce turning 33 in October and Mark Andrews kicking off Week 1 at 27, the advantage Pitts gives you over any other tight end is almost unfathomable.  Pitts caught 68 passes for over 1,000 yards and a TD as a rookie at a position where players typically approve by leaps and bounds in years two, three, and four. The quarterback situation is concerning, but being that he’s the clear top target and the perfect security blanket for either a rookie or weak-armed Marcus Mariota, I’m not too concerned about it.    Pick 1.6 Ceedee Lamb (WR) Dallas Cowboys The departure of Amari Cooper from Dallas and a healthy Dak Prescott now a full season removed from injury should bode well for Lamb in Dallas. He caught 79 passes last season, topping 1,100 yards and six TDs. I expect all of those numbers to improve significantly this season and expect consistency from him year in and year out moving forward. There’s not much more to say about this pick. He’s ultra-talented with a solid quarterback and a creative offensive coordinator who will make every effort to get the ball in his hands as the now undisputed top weapon on the team.  Pick 1.7 Javonte Williams (WR) Denver Broncos I love this pick and have him ranked Lamb and just about dead even with Pitts. He split time with Melvin Gordon last year as a rookie so his numbers won’t blow you away. He rushed for 903 yards on 203 carries

Super Bowl Preview: Betting & DFS Tips

Although this wasn’t the outcome most of us expected back in August, we have finally reached the final NFL game of the season and Super Bowl LVI is shaping up to be an exciting contest. The NFC is represented by

Although this wasn’t the outcome most of us expected back in August, we have finally reached the final NFL game of the season and Super Bowl LVI is shaping up to be an exciting contest.

The NFC is represented by Sean McVay‘s Los Angeles Rams, who last won a title back in the 1999 season and last appeared two seasons later losing Super Bowl XXXVI 20-17. This is the Rams’ fifth overall appearance.

Making their third overall appearance, the AFC’s Cincinnati Bengals have never won an NFL championship and this is their time playing in the Super Bowl in 40 years. The Bengals are 0-2 in their previous Super Bowls.

Both teams were the respective conference’s 4-seeds, making this the first game since 1975 without at least one team being a top-3 playoff entrant.

As with any NFL finale, Sunday will be treated as a national holiday with plenty of daily fantasy and betting action taking place.

Our Conference Championships bets went a perfect 4-0, so Let’s break down how the game might go and pick our best bets for Super Bowl LVI.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Current Line: Cincinnati +4; over/under 48.5

To read our Conference Championship Preview, become a FullTime Fantasy Subscriber

NFL Playoff Preview: Conference Championship Betting & DFS Tips

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

We are down to the NFL’s final four teams after a wild Divisional round that saw all four games decided on the final play- an NFL first. Football fans are now just one afternoon away from knowing which two teams

We are down to the NFL’s final four teams after a wild Divisional round that saw all four games decided on the final play- an NFL first. Football fans are now just one afternoon away from knowing which two teams will be squaring off for Super Bowl LVI.

Both conference championship tilts this week feature rematches from the 2021 regular season, which can complicate matters from a betting and fantasy perspective.

Let’s break down the 49ers/Rams and Bengals/Chiefs games on Sunday and see how sports betting and NFL DFS fans should approach the penultimate week of football.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Current line: Cincinnati +7; over/under 54.5

 

To read our Conference Championship Preview, become a FullTime Fantasy Subscriber

Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers

All successful investors know they have to pay attention to the stock market. This is also true for football fans who are poised to invest their draft picks in players. Knowing which players are surging and who is tanking can be quite beneficial. Even better is understanding the stock market according to the world’s best high-stakes fantasy minds. Fulltime’s Advanced ADP Tool monitors the ups and downs of FFWC drafts and can be one of the most useful weapons in the arsenal of the well-prepared fantasy football manager. Here are the 2021 fantasy football risers and fallers using our Advanced ADP. Risers Antonio Gibson (RB) Washington Football Team – In the early FFWC drafts, Gibson barely slipped into the bottom of the second round but after seeing his preseason usage, which has included a promising role in the passing game, Gibson has cracked the top-10 in a handful of drafts. Overall, Gibson is now firmly entrenched as a top-10 running back and regularly being selected near the turn of the first round. Those that envisioned Gibson being used in a Christian McCaffrey-type role may just be right, and high-stakes drafters are buying in. Tee Higgins (WR) Cincinnati Bengals – Initially, Higgins was being selected in the fifth round after teammate Ja’Marr Chase but Chase’s struggles have cemented Higgins as Cincinnati’s top target. Higgins is now going a full round earlier and has even gone in the third round. High-stakes drafters still like the Bengals’ offense overall but it now appears that Higgins is the preferred option. Darrell Henderson (RB) Los Angeles Rams – Before the Cam Akers injury, Henderson was a ninth or tenth-round target. That changed overnight as Henderson shot up into the top-50 but after the Rams traded for Sony Michel, Henderson has settled into the fifth or sixth round. There are still a lot of questions about LA’s backfield usage, so experts view Henderson as a high-risk, high-reward mid-round target. As for Michel, he has shot up from outside the top-200 (and even undrafted in a couple of FFWC drafts) to the ninth round. Marquez Callaway (WR) New Orleans Saints – No player has shot up draft boards more than Callaway, who went from undrafted to sneaking into the sixth round. Callaway’s huge performance on Monday Night Football was undoubtedly the catalyst for his meteoric rise and the announcement that Jameis Winston would be the club’s starter didn’t hurt. Callaway has stepped up as the Saints’ top wideout in the absence of Michael Thomas and he appears to have earned the club’s No. 2 role, giving him solid WR3/4 value on a week-t0-week basis. Gus Edwards (RB) Baltimore Ravens – Edwards opened up FFWC drafts as a solid 11th-round target and was already slowly climbing the ranks. Obviously, he’ll be one of the hottest targets in all drafts moving forward following the J.K. Dobbins injury. Look for Edwards to garner RB2 status and top out as a late third or early fourth-rounder. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) New England Patriots – A fourth-round rookie out of Oklahoma, Stevenson opened the summer buried on the depth chart but has rumbled his way to fantasy significance with an impressive showing in New England’s preseason tilts. Stevenson (6-0, 227) has drawn LeGarrette Blount comparisons but Stevenson is actually a good receiver in addition to being pretty agile for a big man. The trade that sent Sony Michel to LA opened up some touches for Stevenson behind Damien Harris and he’s gone from undrafted to an 11th round prospect in two weeks. Justin Fields (QB) Chicago Bears – Once available as late as the 17th round, Fields has looked tremendous on preseason action and is now commanding 12th and 13th round attention and this is with Matt Nagy continuing to insist that Andy Dalton will open the season as Chicago’s starter. As soon as he’s named the stater, Fields will offer QB1 upside and high-stakes drafters are eager to get a piece of that action. Fallers Saquon Barkley (RB) New York Giants – Despite concerns over his surgically repaired knee, Barkley was still commanding a top-10 pick early. Now, despite the fact that Barkley has finally been cleared to practice, he’s dipped down to the 15th-overall pick and oftens slides even further. It’s still not certain how much of a role Barkley will have early on and that lack of preseason action has worried some. Love the talent, but Barkley looks like a risky proposition in the first round and a half. Ja’Marr Chase (WR) Cincinnati Bengals – While teammate Tee Higgins has surged, Chase’s preseason struggles to catch the ball after a long layoff has led to his tumble down the Advanced ADP standings. After opening up inside the top-40, Chase is 44th overall but is regularly now being nabbed outside of the top-50. There is still a lot to like about the promising rookie but seasoned FFWC veterans are appraoching with caution. Miles Sanders (RB) Philadelphia Eagles – Uncertainty about Sanders’s status as the lead back has caused his ADP to plummet more than two rounds. Throughout training camp, beat writers have alluded to both Boston Scott and now Kenneth Gainwell as being candidates to take touches away from Sanders, who was notoriously awful as a pass-catcher in 2020. There’s still plenty to like about Sanders overall but his RB2 status is losing steam. Kenny Golladay (WR) New York Giants – Golladay injured his hamstring early on in camp and has been absent from practices and games ever since. That, and uncertainty about Saquon Barkley has caused New York’s skill position players to slip. Golladay went from an early fifth-round ADP to the middle of Round 7 in recent FFWC drafts. Jalen Hurts (QB) Philadelphia Eagles – The constant rumors of Philadelphia’s staff being linked to Deshaun Watson and other quarterbacks hasn’t helped Hurt’s value to the high-stakes community. Hurts opened as a sure-fire top-10 QB and even went with the 89th pick but has plummeted down to 151.9 overall ADP. There is a lot to like about Hurts as a runner

Fantasy Football World Championship Draft Review August 1, 2021

Antonio Gibson

Fulltime’s newest Senior Analyst, Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL on Twitter) breaks down a World Championship Draft with a fantasy football draft review completed August 1st, 2021. Reviewing the first FFWC Draft of 2021 Now that the calendar reads August, football fans can rejoice that training camps are in progress and the fantasy football draft season has, at long last, begun. Among the fantasy football drafts that have kicked off, the prestigious Fantasy Football World Championship draft season is in full swing and the inaugural 2021 draft is in the books. Well-known as the preeminent format in the industry, FFWC leagues boast over $12K in prizes, with the overall winner taking home a massive $150K grand prize and title of Fantasy Football World Champion. FFWC drafts use PPR scoring and involve 12 fantasy fans battling it out in a 20-round live draft. Lineups include a single quarterback, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX spots, a team defense, and one team kicker.  With the first FFWC draft now completed, here are some of the takeaways as 12 eager fantasy fans get ready to battle it out over the next five months. Draft Bargains  Aaron Jones (2.02, RB10) – Now that we know Aaron Rodgers will return for at least one more season in Green Bay, all the Packers’ skill position players are on the rise. Jones is coming off of consecutive top-5 seasons and now stands to gain a larger role in the passing game after Jamaal Williams signed with Detroit. Any time Jones slides into Round 2, he’s a solid value.  Saquon Barkley (2.04, RB11) – Even though there are concerns about Barkley’s surgically-repaired knee, he is still generally considered a first-round talent and top-5 fantasy running backs. As the 11th running back selected in this FFWC draft, Barkley looks like a tremendous bargain. A.J. Brown (3.02, WR10) – Among the favorites to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, Brown broke out with a 70/1,073/11 campaign in 2020 and could be even better in 2021 with new teammate Julio Jones commanding a lot more attention from opposing defensive backs. Brown has top-5 upside and looks like a steal being selected after Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin.  Miles Sanders (5.05, RB24) – Sanders had some issue with drops during his rookie campaign, but he still managed to snag 50 passes, rank 9th with 1.67 yards created per attempt, and lead the NFL in runs of 70-plus yards. Sanders also has a clear path to RB1 duties on a team that should be significantly better. That makes the third-year back look like an excellent value pick a full two rounds later than he would normally be targeted.  Kareem Hunt (6.05, RB26) – In 24 games with Cleveland, Hunt has averaged 13.3 PPR points per game, caught 75 passes, and scored 14 touchdowns despite being used as his team’s RB2. Hunt offers standalone RB2 value on a weekly basis but offers top-10 upside if Nick Chubb were to miss time.  James Conner (11.05, RB45) – Chase Edmonds, who was drafted a full five rounds earlier, had all of two games with double-digit carries last season and averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in those contests. This staff seems to know that Edmonds is small and better utilized in a change-of-pace role. Conner has battled injuries but been sneaky good. According to Fantasy Index, Conner has put up 1,739 scrimmage yards and scored 13 touchdowns in the past 16 games in which he received two-thirds of Pittsburgh’s snaps. At 233 pounds, Conner also looks like the clear favorite for goal-line duties in Kingsbury’s offense, which has averaged 20 rushing TDs per season in the NFL.  Questionable Selections  Travis Etienne (3.10, RB18) – It isn’t unusual for first-round running backs to be a hot commodity in fantasy football drafts. But as talented as Etienne was at Clemson, he has an undefined NFL role and joins a Jacksonville squad with a rookie signal-caller, first-year head coach, and who already has an established starting running back in James Robinson. It’s difficult to forecast Etienne to receive enough touches to justify top-20 billing ahead of safer bets like J.K. Dobbins and Chris Carson. — (Scott likes this exciting high ceiling pick. “It’s boom or bust baby!”) Ja’ Marr Chase (4.12, WR18) – When you’re trying to win a league like the FFWC, you have to be willing to take chances but nabbing a rookie wideout in the fourth round with plenty of dependable veteran pass-catchers like Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, and D.J. Moore still on the board is awfully risky.  Robby Anderson (5.04, WR26) – The addition of QB Sam Darnold, who showed excellent chemistry with Anderson in New York, should help, but the Panthers look like a bottom-third passing offense and Anderson will be hard-pressed to get 136 targets again with RB Christian McCaffrey back in the fold.  Ronald Jones (7.03, RB29) – With all 22 starters returning after a Super Bowl win, there’s little reason to think that Bruce Arians will change his backfield committee approach. The problem for Jones is that it appeared that Leonard Fournette moved into the ‘1A’ role late in the 2020 season and Arians also added receiving specialist Giovani Bernard to the fold. Jones will have a tough time carving out a consistent weekly role, making him a poor choice as a top-30 fantasy back. Zach Ertz (10.08, TE9) – Ertz, 30, has seen his production slip in three consecutive seasons and has been rumored to be a trade candidate all offseason. For now, Ertz is still in Philadelphia but that’s not necessarily good news for his fantasy outlook. Dallas Goedert appears to be ahead of Ertz in the pecking order now and the Eagles have added a ton of young wideouts. It’s hard to envision Ertz being anything more than a mediocre TE2 in this offense, but certainly not a top-10 option.  Deshaun Watson (17.03, QB16) – Grabbing a potential stud quarterback in the 17th round is by no means an egregious pick, but Watson