2022 Fantasy Football Fades
Please note: This will be updated again after the Preseason weekend on 8/20. 2.0 is coming! The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to
Below you can find my 2022 fade list with detailed reasonings and data supporting my choice to pass on players when I am on the clock. But before we begin, I think it’s important to clarify what I mean by fade.
Fading a player does not mean I will not draft a player- There is a point at which every player is draftable; that cost is up for you to decide. However, considering my overall roster portfolios, I roster fewer of these players than the rest, and I think it would be irresponsible or foolish not to own any.
That being said, I often find myself passing on these players due to the draft capital required to acquire them, and I will continue to fade them unless something in the offseason changes the fantasy landscape or their projected outlook.
Let’s dive into Part One of my 2022 Fade List for the 2022 fantasy football season, looking at quarterbacks and running backs.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow– Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Burrow, and I love his weapons, but I can’t get behind the cost it takes to acquire him in drafts. Burrow is currently being selected as QB6 in early FFWC draft rooms. He is going ahead of Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, to name a few.
Cincinnati’s strength of schedule sits at .536 in 2022. That ranks as the third-highest behind the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. We also need to consider his fantasy shootout schedule (weeks 15-17). Burrow faces the best of the best, starting with the Bucs, Pats, and then Bills. Looking at Joe Burrow’s successes in 2021, we can’t help but think there will be some regression in 2022.
Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%; he was 8th in the league in TD’s, 6th in the league in money throws, 3rd in the league in touchdown rate at 6.5%, 8th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.1%, 2nd in the league in true passing rating, and 3rd in the league in accuracy rating. I know this sounds AMAZING- but that’s the caveat; even after that monstrous season, Burrow finished 2021 as QB8. He would need to outperform those robust statistics to give investors a return on the draft capital necessary to acquire him in drafts.
Patrick …
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FFWC Best Ball Drafts: For Beginners
FFWC Best Ball Drafts: For Beginners Guest Post from Bradley Stalder of FantasyData. It’s officially fantasy football season and Best Ball drafts are in full swing. Recently, I had the pleasure of assembling an FFWC Best Ball squad and the results were fantastic. For those unfamiliar with Best Ball formats, each week teams will accumulate points from an optimized starting roster. There is no lineup setting– the program will optimize automatically. Nine players comprise the starting roster: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRS, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, and 1 D/ST. Per usual settings for Best Ball, there is no FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) Waiver runs in this starter draft. Notable Scoring Settings: 0.05 points per passing yard, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 0.1 points per rushing or receiving yard, 1 point per reception, and heightened defensive scoring. See further scoring details here. Preparation & Philosophy Before Drafting Starting 3 WRs drives up the value of wide receiver, devaluing all the other positions. Prioritizing WRs in both the early and middle rounds would be necessary. Knowing that wide receiver is the most volatile of positions, and needing to start 3, selecting anchor receivers early paired with boom-bust partners later on allowed for more flexibility. Stacking an elite fantasy quarterback would be determined by their proto-type. A mobile, Konami Code QB would decrease a desire to correlate with multiple pass-catchers. However, if a defined pocket-passer was selected, their corresponding pass-catcher would be a priority. Confidently drafting rookie WRs and RBs once starting positions are secured. Rookies tend to improve as the season goes on. Veteran wide receivers and running backs tend to get more banged up or end up on injured reserve as the season goes on. Entering Round 1 Drafting Davante Adams signaled prioritization of drafting an elite WR early. The next day after I selected him, however, Adams was traded from the Green Bay Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders for two draft picks. While Adams’ value dropped, his 2022 outlook still projects as a top-6 wide receiver. Had Adams been traded the day prior, a selection of Justin Jefferson instead of Adams would have made more sense. Regardless of the perceived loss of value from the Adams trade, leaving Round 1 with a WR1 was a win. Surprising Pick of Round 1: Austin Ekeler went off the board at the 1.03 as the RB2 behind Jonathan Taylor. Early ADP suggests that Ekeler is selected as the RB5 closer to the 1.09 or so. Round 2 There was a bit of an RB run between 1.09 and 2.04. In fact, five of the next seven picks were running backs. Alvin Kamara ended the tier of elite running backs. Kamara rushed a career-high 240 times last season and is the only sure thing on the New Orleans offense. While there are questions about what the offense will look like without Sean Payton, Kamara has eclipsed RB4 in PPR fantasy points per game in four of his five career seasons. The risk of Kamara’s pending legal situation was baked into his fall to 2.05. Surprise Pick of Round 2: CeeDee Lamb fell to the 2.10 as the WR10. Lamb’s ADP has hovered between WR7 and 8 so far this offseason. Round 3 Selecting Diontae Johnson at 3.08 was straight theft. Only one player with 100+ targets last season had more targets per game than Johnson: Cooper Kupp. Despite Ben Roethlisberger’s documented decline over the past three seasons, Johnson has steadily improved year-over-year, finishing 2021 as the WR8 in PPR fantasy points per game. His floor is unquestioned. Again, leaving the first three rounds with two high-floor elite WRs would allow for more risks later on in the draft. Surprise Pick of Round 3: David Montgomery off the board at RB15 at 3.09. Montgomery’s ADP usually falls outside of RB20. Round 4 Breece Hall, projected as the first rookie RB off the NFL draft board, was selected at 4.05 and the 17th running back off the board. Over the past seven seasons, the first rookie RB drafted went on to be RB16 in PPR ppg six times. The only one not to score that high? Clyde Edwards-Helaire at RB23. In fact, five of the last seven seasons, the first RB selected off the rookie draft board finished as RB9 or better. Aside from his savory measurables, history is on Breece Hall’s side to out-perform RB17. Surprise Pick of Round 4: Chris Godwin at WR20. Godwin tore his ACL in week 15 against the Saints. A late-season ACL tear is a risk when a drafter is investing WR20 draft capital in a start-3 WR league. Round 5 At 5.08, Travis Etienne was the gamble of the draft. Selected right after Najee Harris in the 2021 NFL draft, Etienne missed his whole rookie year due to a lisfranc injury. However, Doug Pederson suggested that Etienne will be able to do off-season and drill work. With 4.50 speed, 1st round draft capital, and 85 receptions in his final two seasons at Clemson with teammate Trevor Lawrence, Etienne’s potential as a needle-moving playmaker in an improved and up-tempo Pederson-led Jacksonville offense. Surprise Pick of Round 5: Darnell Mooney at 5.01 and the WR23 off the board. While Mooney showed interesting upside last season, his ADP as outside the top-30 of WRs looks like a significant loss of value. Perhaps Mooney wouldn’t have made it back to this team, but it looked like a tier-overstep. Round 6 At 6.05, Lamar Jackson provided relief in the midst of six consecutive quarterback selections. Jackson’s Konami Code accesses a ceiling nearly unmatched by any other quarterback– three top-2 weekly QB finishes in ‘21, five top-5 weekly QB finishes in ‘20, and nine top-3 weekly QB finishes in ‘19. Perhaps the most interesting trend in ‘21 was Jackson’s significant Pass Attempts increase; 34.4 attempts per full game was a 28.7% increase from his previous seasonal career high. Lamar Jackson is also a strong quarterback consideration