Fantasy Value if Jets and Patriots Draft WR in Round 1
There’s no doubt that the 2020 NFL Draft class features a plethora of quality wide receiver options. It’s one of the best classes at that position in recent memory, and fantasy football players are champing at the bit to get their hands on a few of them for the upcoming season or in dynasty leagues. It’s possible as many as 6-8 WRs could come of the board on Night 1 of the draft. If that happens, a couple teams will be taking a receiver that we didn’t expect. For example, in Frankie Taddeo’s latest mock draft for Sports Illustrated, he has the New York Jets passing on an offensive tackle and taking Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb as the top WR off the board. Here’s what he had to say about that: According to my sources, in this scenario the Jets could grab the rumored No. 1 wideout on their board in CeeDee Lamb. After losing Robby Anderson to Carolina, the Jets select the 6-foot-2, 198-pound star who instantly becomes the best receiver on their roster. If that happens, Lamb becomes a very intriguing WR4 option for fantasy, hanging just inside the Top 40 WRs. There will be some competition for targets from the recently-signed Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder, but Lamb will have a chance to emerge as Sam Darnold’s go-to option in the second half of the season. The other surprise from Taddeo’s mock was the New England Patriots taking a wide receiver at pick No. 23, Denzel Mims out of Baylor. Here’s what he had to say about that selection: Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu, and N’Keal Harry are a solid wide receiver trio. However, Edelman will be 33 years old in 2020, Sanu is coming off of offseason ankle surgery and Harry still needs time to develop. Mims has been rising up draft boards after scoring 28 touchdowns in three seasons. Mims is a 6-foot-3 target who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and has all the makings of a diamond in the rough. Given the Patriots’ quarterback situation and other WRs already on the team, it’s hard to imagine Mims making much of a fantasy impact in Year 1. However, his strong run blocking skills could get him on the field a lot as a rookie. Still, he’s a WR6 at best, or better yet, a last-round flier. What do you think? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Where Would You Take 1st WR in Standard Leagues?
The rise in the popularity of PPR and half-PPR fantasy football leagues has nearly made standard scoring extinct. However, there are still thousands of players who either prefer or are grandfathered into that format. Over on Sports Illustrated, I broke down what the first round of fantasy football drafts could look like in standard formats. You can check that out here. The big question I ran into is when should the first wide receiver come off the board? After that, how many receivers should be taken in the first 12 picks? To answer the first question, I landed on pick No. 6 for New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas. Here’s part of what I said about him: Some may consider his No. 6 overall ranking low, but I’ll always prefer elite running backs to elite receivers on position scarcity alone. Plus, Thomas’ lead over the rest of the field is more muted in standard formats because it doesn’t account for his wide gap in receptions. In standard leagues, there’s a gap between Thomas, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, etc., but the drop off isn’t as large as it is for the running back position. It’s hard to pass on a running back anywhere in the Top 10 of standard leagues, but it’s important not to ignore the merits of value based drafting. The gap between Thomas and the field last season was massive enough to warrant this draft slot if you believe he can replicate his yardage/TD output in 2020. Thomas had 1,725 receiving yards and 9 TDs last season. Vegas oddsmakers have his over/unders for this season set at 1,500 yards and 8.5 TDs. Given his reliability and lack of injury history, I’m comfortable saying he can get close to his 2019 totals, especially if you don’t directly care about receptions. As for other receivers, I had Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins going off the board in the final third of Round 1 in that order. I saw a drop off after the top 7 RBs that warranted a mini-run on elite WRs. What do you think? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Fantasy Football Impact From Potential 2nd-Rounders
A lot of focus has been put on the potential impact of first-round NFL Draft picks entering the fantasy football pool in 2020, and rightfully so, but it’s important to remember that impact players come from Day 2 of the draft as well. With the 2020 NFL Draft set to take place in less than two weeks, let’s take a look at five potential second-round picks that could make a fantasy impact in Year 1, using Sports Illustrated‘s latest mock draft. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State — Indianapolis Colts Getting surefire fantasy football value from rookie wide receivers is asking a lot. They just take longer to acclimate to the NFL than running backs do. Still, there is some last-round flier material here with Aiyuk to Indianapolis. The Colts do need a No. 2 option behind T.Y. Hilton for new quarterback Philip Rivers. Right now that’s second-year WR Parris Campbell, but Aiyuk may be able to contribute right away. The former Sun Devil has the ability to stretch defenses vertically and frustrate them after the catch. Aiyuk underwent core surgery earlier this week, but should be ready to go for whenever teams are allowed to meet again. I wouldn’t draft Aiyuk before the final round of fantasy drafts, but he has a clearer path to playing time than most of the WRs that will be taken outside of the first round. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin — Los Angeles Chargers Here’s what I wrote about this selection for SI: This is a great addition for Los Angeles, but this may be a trap for fantasy managers. Austin Ekeler will still be the most productive back and Justin Jackson shouldn’t be ignored, but Taylor even being 60% as productive as Melvin Gordon was last season is worthwhile. Stick him on your bench or as your second flex and hope for the best. D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia — Miami Dolphins Here’s what I wrote about this selection for SI: Swift can step in and have a significant role immediately alongside Jordan Howard. He may not get much goal-line work, but he’s an underrated pass-catcher that can play on passing downs and be a safety blanket for Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s worth a speculative add as a potential flex play, but could very well be hyped up draft boards. Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado — Houston Texans Here’s what I wrote about this selection for SI: Shenault is no DeAndre Hopkins, but it’s a start after they let the Cardinals “steal” him away. He’s dynamic, can lineup all over the field, and has a chance to seize a significant workload with the oft-injured Will Fuller and Kenny Stills as his only competition. He’s a late-round fantasy flier or a guy you put on waiver wire speed dial. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State — Tampa Bay Buccaneers Here’s what I wrote about this selection for SI: I’m in wait-and-see mode here. While there is a clear path to some significant playing time in Tampa Bay, I’m not sure Dobbins is the best fit while Ronald Jones is still in the mix. Like Taylor, Dobbins is still worth grabbing as a high-upside bench/second flex option. What do you think? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Fantasy Football Bounce-Back WRs: Looking at JuJu and OBJ
Odell Beckham Jr. and JuJu Smith-Schuster: two wide receivers that went really high in fantasy football drafts last season and were major disappointments when the 2019 season was all said and done. Can they bounce back to superstar status in 2020? Corey Parson thinks so. Let’s take a brief look at his latest article for Sports Illustrated regarding bounce-back candidates. Odell Beckham Jr. Stefanski has a good track record coaching offenses (see the Vikings last year). I think he can turn around Cleveland’s offense, and I’m willing to bet on a Beckham bounce-back, especially at his early ADP of WR10. I mostly agree with Parson about Beckham relative to his ADP. He is a borderline WR1 for me in 12-team PPR leagues, likely around WR12 or WR13. There’s still plenty of risk—let’s not forget about his extensive injury history—but he still has a ton of upside and there’s no way his 2020 is as bad as his 2019. I’d feel comfortable taking him in the third round. JuJu Smith Schuster Smith-Schuster missed four games toward the end of the season, but his fantasy owners’ fate had already been sealed. He could very well go back to being one of the top wideouts in fantasy. In early drafts, Smith-Schuster is going off the board at WR14. The health of Ben Roethlisberger will be the biggest key to Smith-Schuster’s success in 2020. The late-season emergence of Diontae Johnson and James Washington might be enough to give other teams pause about doubling JuJu, especially if he moves back into the slot. Right now he’s a solid WR2 for me, but his current ADP is fair. I look at him as more of a fourth-rounder. What do you think? Will JuJu Smith-Schuster and Odell Beckham Jr. bounce back in 2020? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Should You Draft Joe Mixon in Round 1? Breaking Down Dr. Roto’s Article
Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon is one of the fantasy community’s favorite players. Usually hanging right around the RB1/RB2 borderline, Mixon lovers tend to push him up draft boards late in the offseason. Sometimes he’ll even go in the first round. Should he go that high this year? Dr. Roto examines that possibility in depth over on Sports Illustrated, but let’s take a brief look at it. Given Mixon’s strong finish to the season coupled with the likely addition of quarterback Joe Burrow to boost the offense, should the star running back be one of the first dozen players off the board? Strong Finish and Zac Taylor’s Commitment To Mixon Up until Week 14, Mixon had only one game over 25 carries and 100 rushing yards. However, in his last four games, the team fed him the ball early and often … Not only did Mixon average around 27 touches per game, but he also scored three TDs. Twenty-seven touches per game is a number that is reserved for only the top running backs in the game … Those numbers are quite remarkable and do show a total commitment to the run game. Do we see more of that in 2020? I think so. With a rookie quarterback coming in, it’s hard to imagine the Bengals wanting to put a huge workload on Burrow. Lean on Mixon and make the transition from college to the pros as easy as possible for the LSU standout. Speaking of … Joe Burrow Will Help Last year’s starting QB, Andy Dalton, had no mobility, and the Bengals could not take advantage of the many RPO (run-pass options) that so many other teams run. As we saw last season at LSU, Burrow is very mobile in the pocket, and the threat of him running should open up running lanes for Mixon. Nothing against Dalton, but having Burrow in the fold, and a second year for the whole offense under Taylor, should only aid Mixon. As should the return of A.J. Green. A more dynamic Bengals offense should force defenses to pay more attention to players outside of the backfield, giving Mixon more running room. It’s a compelling argument. What do you think? Should Mixon should go in Round 1? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Should You Draft Lamar Jackson in Round 1? Dr. Roto Article Breakdown
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is coming off a fantasy football season for the ages. Can he follow it up with another historic season in 2020? Does he even need to in order to be worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts? Dr. Roto took a deep dive into the topic over on Sports Illustrated, but let’s take a brief look at the possibility here. Lamar Jackson Doesn’t Have To Be As Good To Be No. 1 QB Assuming Jackson has 20% fewer carries, he still would have close to 1,000 yards rushing. And, assuming he throws more, I will give him closer to 3,500 yards passing, which is better than last year’s 3,127. If he can keep his interceptions to a minimum (he only threw six in 2019), his overall point total should be very close to 2019’s number. That’s a great point by Doc. The amount of room Jackson can regress and still be great is enormous. Fun fact: If Jackson’s passing touchdown rate dropped from 9% to league average, he still would’ve been the QB1 in 2019. Even if you dropped his passing touchdown total from 36 to 19 and his rushing total from 1,206 yards to 983 yards, he’d still be 2019’s QB1. That’s how much room he has to fall back and still be elite. Jackson Can Be Much More Valuable Than Average QB1 Josh Allen scored 290.06 points last year, ranking him as the seventh overall quarterback. Divided by 13 games, that would make Jackson about 11 points more valuable per week. This is a great point because so often quarterbacks don’t get judged by the same value over replacement level scale that RBs and WRs do. The elite of the elite at the position still have a major advantage, even in single-QB leagues. What do you think? Should Jackson should go in Round 1? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Breaking Down Latest Fantasy Football Mock Draft
If you haven’t had a chance, go check out Corey Parson’s latest one-man fantasy football mock draft over on Sports Illustrated. It’s a good look into how the first round of fantasy drafts could play out in 12-team PPR leagues. Let’s break down his picks. Let us know what you think over on the Forums. Pick 1: Christian McCaffrey Analysis: Until further notice this is the correct top pick. He’ll be the consensus No. 1 overall selection in fantasy football drafts and rightfully so. Picks 2-4: Trio of RBs Analysis: Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley are the next three off the board. I expect that combination of running backs, in any order, to go in the Top 5 with shares of Michael Thomas sprinkled in. I lean toward Barkley in this spot, but if someone wanted to go for the safety of Elliott I wouldn’t put up a fight. Cook was phenomenal last season, but I think that was his fantasy peak. I can’t see him topping that. His injury risk isn’t that much lower this season, either. Picks 5-6: Saints Come Marching In Analysis: Parson has Thomas and Alvin Kamara next up. Thomas is the no-doubt WR1. The only question is how high in the first round he will go. I bet he’ll go No. 2 overall in a bunch of drafts this summer. I love the buy-back opportunity with Kamara. I think he’s still a Top 3 pick and I go into more detail about why here. Pick 7: Nick Chubb Analysis: This is a little rich for me. I have Chubb just outside of the first round. His pass-catching was already limited and became even more so when Kareem Hunt returned from suspension. I’d be more willing to take him in standard leagues. He might only have 20-25 catches all season in 2020, which won’t be enough to return first-round value in PPR formats. Picks 8-12: The Wide Receiver Run Analysis: Hopkins-Adams-Hill-Evans-Godwin is how Parson ends his first round. Hopkins and Adams are locks. Hill belongs somewhere around the turn, but I’m surprised to not see Julio Jones in the mix here. I’m also a little surprised running backs like Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones aren’t being considered. As far as the wide receiver position goes, aside from the exclusion of Jones, it’s hard to argue with the order. I just lean toward the RB1s still on the board because it’s a more scarce position. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
Potential Fantasy Impact of NFL Team Taking 1st Round RB
How many running backs come off the board in Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft? No one knows for sure, but the consensus seems to be either one or zero. The over/under at most major sportsbooks offering a prop bet is 0.5, with heavy juice on the over. The 2020 NFL Draft is chock-full of quality wide receivers, offensive tackles and quarterbacks, all poised to soak up a large portion of teams’ first-round capital. In my own projections, 15 of the 32 first-round selections will come from just those three positions. Given that, and the overall devaluation of the running back position as a whole, it’s tough to imagine more than one team taking the plunge and taking one of the uber-talented backs on Day 1. But what if a team does? After all, sportsbooks favor at least one running back’s name being called on the NFL Draft’s opening night? The favorite to be the first running back off the board is Georgia’s D’Andre Swift. While Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins both have a shot at being the top player taken at their position as well. There are really only two spots in the first round that I see having a decent possibility of a running back being taken: No. 26 (Miami) or No. 32 (Kansas City). Let’s explore those opportunities. Miami Dolphins The Dolphins signed running back Jordan Howard to a two-year deal earlier in the offseason. Here’s part of what I said when the signing happened: It feels reasonable to assume that Howard will be sharing some duties with a rookie running back, but it’s unlikely that player will overtake Howard in 2020 unless the Dolphins spend one of their three first-round picks on one. That last part is key, because everything that precedes that changes if Swift gets taken at pick No. 26. Swift becomes part of a timeshare early on and would be a trendy mid-round pick in fantasy drafts. The concern comes from Howard taking the lion’s share of the goal line work away from the rookie. Swift also isn’t a plug-and-play passing down back quite yet either, so there’s no guaranteed role there either. Long-term this is a solid landing spot, but the Howard signing complicates things for any Day 1 or Day 2 back the Dolphins are poised to take. Kansas City Chiefs This is the dream landing spot for all fantasy football managers. There’s a clear need for a complement to Damien Williams in Kansas City’s backfield and the offense itself is spectacular. This would still be a timeshare, but the per-snap fantasy production for Swift would be higher in KC than it would be in Miami and there’s a clearer role for him—playing on certain series, playing early downs, injury fill-in, etc. I can see Swift being taken around where Miles Sanders went in fantasy drafts last year in this scenario. Given Andy Reid’s penchant for getting the most out of his running backs, Williams’ injury history and the overall effectiveness of the Chiefs’ offense, this is the ideal landing spot for Swift or any of the top running back prospects. Do you think a running back goes in Round 1? If so, who and how many? Let us know over on the Forums. This content is typically reserved for members only, but given the current circumstances in the sports world and beyond, it’s unlocked for all to enjoy.
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