Trade Deadline Fantasy Impact
Normally the NFL trade deadline passes with little fanfare. That wasn’t the case in 2022. Several blockbuster deals happened. Let’s break down the trade deadline fantasy impact of each deal. Also, don’t forget to check out our updated Week 9 fantasy football rankings. T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota – The deal that got the wild day started was also the most surprising. After losing Irv Smith for likely the rest of the season, the Vikings sent a 2023 second and 2024 third-round pick to the Lions for the 25-year-old Hockenson. Detroit also tossed in a pair of fourth-rounders to make the deal work. This appears to be a lateral move for Hockenson. While Minnesota is clearly a better landing spot, Detroit ranks 7th in passing versus 11th for the Vikings. At best, Hockenson remains third on the target pecking order. However, the volume could slip a bit but Hockenson remains a solid top-10 fantasy option. Nyheim Hines to Buffalo –Hines was traded from the Indianapolis Colts to the Buffalo Bills for Zach Moss and a conditional sixth-round pick, per Tom Pelissero of NFL.com. Moss is signed through 2023, and Hines is under contract for two more seasons at base salaries of $4.45M in 2023 and $5.14M in 2024. Immediate impact: Devin Singletary is the biggest loser of this trade. As Buffalo’s RB1. First, he was RB#28 on the year, averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues with a 69.8% snap share. Most of his success in 2022 has been in the receiving game. Secondly, Singletary has run 151 routes or 5th most at the running back position. He has had a 55.7% route participation, or 8th most, and he’s seen 12.4% target share, for 14th most at the running back position. Finally, Singletary should be relegated to first and second downs with the occasional target and is immediately an RB3 moving forward. Hines immediately steps into the receiving back role for the Bills. In 2021 he was the 12th most targeted running back and in 2022, is the 16th most targeted back in 2022 despite missing week six and nearly all of week 5 due to a concussion. Also, Hines is a very productive pass catcher. Hine leads the league with an 89.3% catch rate. Also, he is 7th in yards per route run at 2.14, 17th in yards per reception at 7.5, and 11th in the league in receiving yards at the running back position. Conversely, Hines should be considered a high-end RB3 moving forward with RB2 upside every week in one of the most electric offenses in football. Deon Jackson is the biggest winner of this trade. With Jonathan Taylor banged up, Jackson may be in for a large workload in week 9 and may carry weekly flex appeal moving forward. In Taylor and Hines’s absence, Deon Jackson finished as the RB#1 in week six against Jacksonville, where he rushed the ball 12 times for 42 yards and a score. Also, Jackson produced 10 receptions for 79 yards through the air for 28.1 PPR points. Jackson is a weekly RB3 with RB1 upside. – Billy Muzio Chase Edmonds to Denver – As part of an even bigger trade involving Bradley Chubb to Miami, the Broncos bolstered their backfield by acquiring Chase Edmonds from Miami. Edmonds joins an already crowded committee in Denver, which also stars Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray. This move can only help Edmonds, who hasn’t topped double-digit touches since Week 1. Expect the Broncos to stick with a frustrating committee approach. However, Edmonds is a proven pass-catcher who has the chance to emerge as a decent flex option down the stretch. Also, Edmonds will have an extra week to acclimate himself to the offense and altitude. Overall, we consider this an upgrade to Edmonds’s sagging fantasy value. Jeff Wilson to Miami –Wilson was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a 2023 5th-round pick, per Adam Schefter. The trade was a domino effect that fell into place 12 days after the San Francisco 49er’s traded away the kitchen sink for running back Christian McCaffrey and hours after the Dolphins traded a first-round pick and Chase Edmonds to the Broncos for pass-rusher Bradley Chubb. Immediate Impact: Jeff Wilson will join his old teammate Raheem Mostert and old offensive coordinator (now head coach) Mike McDaniel’s in Miami. Wilson filled in admirably during Elija Mitchell’s absence. He totaled 468 rushing yards, 91 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns during that span. Wilson is a big-play threat. He is running back number 8 on the year in breakaway runs with 8 in total, RB#10 in breakaway rate at 8.7% and he’s averaging 5.5 yards per touch. Wilson will most likely be a part of a two-man committee with Mostert moving forward, where both backs should see close to a 50/50 split. Both Wilson and Mostert will be RB3s moving forward with RB2 touchdown dependency upside. – Billy Muzio Chase Claypool to Chicago- The Bears gave up a second-rounder for Claypool. This seems excessive considering how cheap it is to acquire veteran wideouts. Not to mention, Chicago ranks dead last in passing. Claypool might get a boost in target share as the unquestioned No. 2 but the quality of those looks is a different matter. Conversely, this is a downgrade for Claypool’s fantasy value but a big win for the Steelers’ rebuild process. Zack Moss to Indianapolis – Moss was part of the deal that sent Hines to Buffalo. With the Bills, Moss’s playing time had disintegrated down to a 15% snap share for the season. Now buried behind Jonathan Taylor, Moss will vie for RB2 reps with Deon Jackson. Calvin Ridley to Jacksonville – The Jaguars have been looking to acquire an Alpha to pair with Christian Kirk. Mission accomplished. However, it won’t help the Jags in 2023. Ridley is serving a one-year suspension but should be back on the WR3 radar next spring. Considering the lack of volume in Atlanta’s offense, this might be a slight upgrade for Ridley’s fantasy value. ENTER OUR WEEK 9 DRAFT CONTEST! How it
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 7
Bye weeks can wreak havoc on well-constructed fantasy football rosters. The Week 7 bye is particularly brutal with all Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Jacksonville Jaguars unavailable. Attacking the waiver wire and knowing which players to start and sit is crucial towards overcoming the bye and giving your squad the best chance to win another game. Start Ryan Tannehill (QB) Tennessee Titans Saying Ryan Tannehill has been disappointing this season would be an understatement. After adding Julio Jones to a WR corps already featuring A.J. Brown, most experts ranked him as a QB1 with high-end upside. He’s currently the QB23 based on fantasy PPG this season. There is a good chance at this point you can find him sitting on your waiver wire. If he is sitting there you should pick him up this week and stream him. Tannehill has a healthy Brown and is taking on the Chiefs this week, who are atrocious against fantasy quarterbacks. Only the Washington Football Team has been worse. The Titans’ defense is just generally awful as well so Patrick Mahomes should score at will, which should prevent an overwhelmingly heavy Derrick Henry game. The Titans will have to throw to keep up and hopefully can make this a shootout. Devonta Freeman (RB) Baltimore Ravens Latavius Murray went down with an ankle injury last week and doesn’t look good for Week 7. Ty’Son Williams has been relegated to being a healthy scratch and isn’t what the Ravens are looking for in a starting running back. This leaves Freeman and Le’Veon Bell left in the Baltimore backfield. Freeman has been running ahead of Freeman since the two got there and looks better on the field. This is a team if you can get the starting running back, you want him because they run so much. This week they take on the Bengals and I fully expect Freeman to be the RB1 ahead of Bell and Williams. This doesn’t mean the other backs won’t see touches, but they should be significantly less valuable than Freeman. With all the injuries and byes this week, he should be in a lot of starting lineups. Elijah Mitchell (RB) San Francisco 49ers This is another backfield where you want the starter regardless of talent or matchup because they always put up points. We have been fooled by this backfield before, nevertheless, it seems like Mitchell is the clear RB1 in San Fran when healthy. As much as the fantasy community has clamored for Trey Sermon, he doesn’t look like he’s going to be a thing unless everybody else on the roster is injured. I don’t care that the matchup isn’t great and I don’t care who the quarterback is. This week with so many holes for fantasy owners to fill, Mitchell is getting plugged into your starting lineup. He will handle the bulk of the carries, he should see red-zone work and he’ll likely have a few targets thrown his way. He’s the only back you can trust on the Niners. Jaylen Waddle (WR) Miami Dolphins Waddle scored two touchdowns this past week and had another huge targets week catching 10 of the 13 passes thrown his way. While I don’t expect the TDs to stay consistent the targets will. He’s seeing these targets for two simple reasons. This is what he was drafted for and no one else is healthy. With DeVante Parker and Will Fuller forever living on the injured list, Waddle is the only high-level healthy receiver this team has and it has shown in the box scores. At this point, he is an every-week start in PPR leagues. The yardage totals haven’t been massive, but the targets are there and he’s starting to get a lot of looks around the end zone. He is beginning to move past the flex zone into WR2 territory. Sterling Shepard (WR) New York Giants This is another case of a wideout being the last man standing. Kadarius Toney won’t play this week, Kenny Golladay isn’t looking likely for Week 7 and Darius Slayton isn’t healthy either. Slayton is the one most likely to be active of the bunch and he’s a secondary receiver anyway. Shepard came back and saw 14 targets last week. It wouldn’t be surprising if he somehow saw, even more, this week. He’s a must-start this week despite a tough matchup against the Panthers. Ricky Seals-Jones (TE) Washington Football Team Seals-Jones was on this list last week and he’s here again because he needs to be started. Until Logan Thomas returns from injury, he should be viewed as a low-end TE1 with upside. Last week he caught four of six targets for 58 yards and a TD. He has everything you’re looking for in a plug-in TE. He is seeing targets, getting red zone looks, and has big-play ability because of his athleticism. If this guy is still on your waivers and you don’t have a top-tier tight end, scoop him up and plug him in. Additionally, with Curtis Samuel sidelined, Seals-Jones was lined up in the slot for 52.5% of his snaps last week. If that usage continues, Seals-Jones (6-foot-5, 243) will have a decided size advantage against Green Bay slot corner Chandon Sullivan (5-11, 189). Sit Mac Jones (QB) New England Patriots When you hear his opponent is the New York Jets, your first reaction is probably to think it’s a great matchup. However, the Jets have been tough against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Some of it is because they are a little better than expected and a lot of it is because they can’t stop running backs at all and their offense is so terrible teams usually don’t need to throw much. Either way, it’s not ideal. Beyond the matchup, Jones hasn’t looked very good. He’s a dink and dunk guy with below-average weapons in a game where the opposing team isn’t likely to score 20 points. Don’t
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 6
Hard to believe we’re already at Week 6 of this rapidly-moving 2021 fantasy football season. Those pesky bye weeks are now upon us to further complicate lineup decisions. It’s now more important than ever to know which players make good starts, and who should be benched this week. Here are some unheralded players to consider starting, and a few to think about benching ahead of Week 6. Start ‘Em Taylor Heinicke (QB) Washington Football Team We are now at a point with the Chiefs where just about every decent offensive player is worth starting against them, especially players involved in the passing game. It’s the ideal situation for quarterbacks. The defense is terrible, and teams must keep throwing to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes no matter what the score is. He’s too dangerous to just sit on a lead or he already has built a lead of his own. No team is giving up more points to fantasy QBs than the Chiefs. Second on that list is the Washington Football Team. This one is going to be a shootout. Kansas City has held just one team under 30 points all season. The Browns Week 1 scored 29 points. Heinicke has shown an ability to have big games despite a Week 5 dud. There is no reason to believe that will happen again this week. Myles Gaskin (RB) Miami Dolphins Gaskin has been the only bright spot in the Dolphins offense during their four-game losing streak without Tua. If last week didn’t show the coaches this man needs to be on the field as much as possible, they are never going to get it. The Bucs had been shutting down fantasy running backs all season and Gaskin found a way to have himself a monster game. He only carried the ball five times but managed five yards per carry and caught all 10 of his targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns. He has looked exceptionally better than the other backs and I don’t see how he isn’t the man in Miami moving forward after a failed Malcolm Brown experiment. Darrell Williams (RB) Kansas City Chiefs Williams had already often looked like the favorite back in Kansas City when Clyde Edwards-Helaire was healthy. Now that CEH will be sidelined Williams should see the vast majority of snaps at running back. And he doesn’t have anyone breathing down his neck and taking a ton of snaps as he did to CEH. The matchup is average against Washington, but this is a high-powered offense and I want a piece of it. Williams is a good way to get that piece. He should have a ton of upside as a back who can also catch passes in a game that looks like it should be a shootout. Kadarius Toney (WR) New York Giants With injuries to Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton, Toney is the last man standing and has exploded over the past two weeks leading the entire league with 141 yards after catch during that stretch and breaking out last week with 10 receptions for 189 yards. It is looking like he will be the WR1 in New York again this week and even when everyone is healthy, he has earned a major role in this offense. The one concern is the health of quarterback Daniel Jones. He is currently in the concussion protocol and the backup is Mike Glennon. If Jones is out, that likely caps Toney’s upside. Even so, if Shepard and Slayton are both out Toney may still be worth plugging in thanks to his playmaking ability and likely volume. Emmanuel Sanders (WR) Buffalo Bills The Bills offense has been unstoppable and there hasn’t been a target funnel to Stefon Diggs like last season. Sanders has had a massive role in this passing game, and they take on the Titans this week who have been getting destroyed through the air and are allowing the most points to fantasy wide receivers. Through five games, Sanders has 19 receptions for 322 yards and four TDs. In his last three games, he’s had two multi-touchdown games and has topped 50 yards in each game. He has been consistent and reliable, and this week is a great matchup for him and the Bills’ passing attack. Ricky Seals-Jones (TE) Washington Football Team With Logan Thomas on injured reserve, Seals-Jones has seemingly stepped right into his role in the WFT offense. He saw eight targets in his first shot at the TE1 job and caught five passes for 41 yards. While the overall production doesn’t blow you away, it’s hard to ignore the targets. As usual, I’m highlighting a streamable option this week and with byes starting this week you may need to pluck a guy off waivers. If you can add a red zone threat who will likely be in a shootout and can get eight targets, it’s hard to beat that. Sit ‘Em Ryan Tannehill (QB) Tennessee Titans Tannehill is currently sitting as the fantasy QB20 and hasn’t shown many signs that a turnaround is coming soon. This week he draws the Bills who are allowing the fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks and their defense is steamrolling their opponents. With Julio Jones still injured and A.J. Brown not playing anywhere close to his potential there is nothing to like about Ryan Tannehill this week. You should be closer to cutting him than starting him this week. Devontae Booker (RB) New York Giants Booker is a trap play this week. With Saquon Barkley out he will step into an assumed starter’s role. However, there is a lot to hate here. He faces a tough matchup with the Rams, his quarterback may be sidelined and he’s simply just not nearly as good as Barkley. Barkley hasn’t even been that great this year behind that offensive line, so why would Booker suddenly be a viable starting option? You can add him off waivers and stash him
Introduction to Advanced ADP with High / Low Draft Windows
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