Fantasy Football Fades
Fantasy Football Fades Everyone loves targeting upside players in fantasy drafts. However, knowing which players are likely to be overdrafted is just as important. Whether you call them fades, busts, or add them to a ‘do not draft’ list, avoiding these risks at their current ADP is crucial. Here are my fantasy football fades for the 2025 season. Quarterbacks Justin Fields (New York Jets) Fields has always been a better fantasy option than a real quarterback due to his rushing prowess. But I have concerns about how that will play out with a new, defensive-oriented staff. Fields is also quick to tuck the ball and run, which harms the rest of New York’s fantasy assets. That run-first instinct also gets Fields injured a lot. Simply too much risk to draft Fields in QB1 range when there are plenty of safer options. Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) I love the addition of Ben Johnson and the supporting cast, but Williams was awful as a rookie. Among full-time starters, he ranked dead last in sack rate (10%) and was next to last in adjusted completion rate. Too many of those sacks were on Williams, and he struggled throughout camp to adjust to Johnson’s new offense. It’s too early to call Williams a bust. I think he’s being overdrafted by 3-4 spots. Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) Speaking of Johnson, his departure will impact Detroit’s offense dramatically. Goff has outplayed his ADP in the last three seasons. But Detroit plays six outdoor games, and Johnson’s departure makes it hard to trust Goff as anything more than a QB2 with weekly upside. Running Backs James Cook (Buffalo Bills) Getting Cook signed and active for some of the preseason was a positive development for Cook’s value. I’ve moved him up several spots in my rankings. However, he’s still one of the top touchdown regression candidates and missed valuable reps throughout August. Cook is still a decent RB2, but he’s nearly always off the board well before I would pull the trigger in the late 4th or 5th round. Joe Mixon (Houston Texans) If this were a ‘do not draft’ article, Mixon would be featured in that as well. The Texans have been far from transparent about Mixon’s knee. What we do know is that Mixon will open the season on the IR, meaning he’ll miss a minimum of four games. However, what’s concerning is that DeMeco Ryans has said there is no timetable for Mixon’s return to practice. Mixon is outside my top 50 running backs. Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns) This second-round rookie is another middle-round option that I want nothing to do with. Judkins isn’t even signed and is facing a potential length suspension. There are rumors that he could even attempt to re-enroll at college to re-enter the 2026 NFL Draft. Even if he were signed, you have to question what kind of shape Judkins would be in. I don’t think he’s going to make any significant fantasy impact in 2025. Wide Receivers Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders) Another candidate for touchdown regression, McLaurin, also missed time due to a contract impasse. That’s been resolved, but McLaurin will also have a hard time replicating his 16 end zone targets or 57% air yards share (3rd) with Deebo Samuel now in the lineup. Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens) Lamar Jackson threw for a career-high 41 touchdowns last season. But Flowers only caught four of those. Jackson is another massive regression candidate, and Flowers’ upside is capped. He lacks TD upside and will struggle to produce consistent WR3 upside in a run-first Ravens’ offense. Teammate Rashod Bateman is another fantasy football fade I’m avoiding. Non-Ricky Pearsall WR (San Francisco 49ers) Our thoughts on Ricky Pearsall are well documented. And I love Brock Purdy as one of the top QB values. However, I’m not that interested in the rest of San Francisco’s receiving corps. Jauan Jennings, coming off a breakout season of his own, has missed the entire preseason with a holdout. Jennings is also dealing with a calf injury. Speaking of injuries, Brandon Aiyuk will open the season on IR, meaning he will miss at least the first four games of the campaign. And coming off a torn ACL, he’s likely to be limited when he does return. This points to a massive target share from Pearsall and TE George Kittle, but makes the rest of San Francisco’s pass-catching corps unappealing. Tight Ends Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) Forget the off-the-field stuff. Kelce will be 36 this season, but has been in decline for at least three years. His yards per catch, YAC, yards per route run, and forced missed tackles have all dipped significantly. Worse, he’s no longer making plays downfield, and Kansas City may be limiting his usage in the regular season to save him for another deep playoff run. It all points to a player who is a fringe TE1, not the TE6 that his current ADP dictates. Finally, are you a Die-Hard Fantasy Football Player? CLICK HERE to Start Your Road to the 2025 Fantasy Football World Championships.
2024 Fantasy Football Busts
2024 Fantasy Football Busts Everyone wants to read about this year’s hottest sleepers to target. However, knowing which players to avoid is nearly as important. As part of our renowned FullTime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, these are our
Everyone wants to read about this year’s hottest sleepers to target. However, knowing which players to avoid is nearly as important. As part of our renowned FullTime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, these are our Fantasy Football Busts to fade this summer.
Many factors can cause us to avoid players. Usage concerns, lack of performance in the preseason, and injuries all play a role. Conversely, unwarranted hype from around the fantasy football community also factors in.
Regardless of the factors, here are FullTime’s 2024 Fantasy Football Busts and fades.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) – Health was always the biggest concern for Tua Tagovailoa. And right on schedule, as soon as he avoided injuries, Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards. He also posted the top PFF passer rating in the league. However, from a pure fantasy perspective, Tagovailoa wasn’t as good. He ranked 18th in fantasy points per game and
WHO ELSE IS JODY FADING IN 2024?
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Early 2023 Fantasy Football Fades
While it is still early in the 2023 fantasy football draft season, FFWC best ball draft season is underway. Using the average draft position from these drafts allows us to recognize tendencies and find the early 2023 fantasy football fades
Of course, things can and certainly will change over time. However, these preliminary drafts allow savvy high-stakes players the opportunity to exploit values. Conversely, there are also players that appear to be targeted prematurely.
Let’s take a look at some of the early 2023 fantasy football fades to avoid in these May FFWC drafts. And while we’re on the subject, now is a great time to adopt a Dynasty Football World Championship squad.
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Running Backs
Breece Hall (New York Jets) RB11 – There is a lot to love about Breece Hall in dynasty leagues. However, being drafted near the 2/3 turn as the RB11 seems a bit high in redraft leagues. While Hall was the RB7 in terms of fantasy points per game in 2022, he tore his ACL in October.
Very often we see running backs take a full year to return to their pre-injury form. In most cases, the first season after a torn ACL results in a drop in efficiency and effectiveness. Even if Hall is able to suit up for Week 1, the Jets could spell him more with Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight, who are both capable runners.
Although Hall is a promising young back loaded with fantasy upside…
What other 2023 fantasy football fades should you avoid?
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2022 Fantasy Football Fades
Please note: This will be updated again after the Preseason weekend on 8/20. 2.0 is coming! The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to
Below you can find my 2022 fade list with detailed reasonings and data supporting my choice to pass on players when I am on the clock. But before we begin, I think it’s important to clarify what I mean by fade.
Fading a player does not mean I will not draft a player- There is a point at which every player is draftable; that cost is up for you to decide. However, considering my overall roster portfolios, I roster fewer of these players than the rest, and I think it would be irresponsible or foolish not to own any.
That being said, I often find myself passing on these players due to the draft capital required to acquire them, and I will continue to fade them unless something in the offseason changes the fantasy landscape or their projected outlook.
Let’s dive into Part One of my 2022 Fade List for the 2022 fantasy football season, looking at quarterbacks and running backs.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow– Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Burrow, and I love his weapons, but I can’t get behind the cost it takes to acquire him in drafts. Burrow is currently being selected as QB6 in early FFWC draft rooms. He is going ahead of Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, to name a few.
Cincinnati’s strength of schedule sits at .536 in 2022. That ranks as the third-highest behind the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. We also need to consider his fantasy shootout schedule (weeks 15-17). Burrow faces the best of the best, starting with the Bucs, Pats, and then Bills. Looking at Joe Burrow’s successes in 2021, we can’t help but think there will be some regression in 2022.
Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%; he was 8th in the league in TD’s, 6th in the league in money throws, 3rd in the league in touchdown rate at 6.5%, 8th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.1%, 2nd in the league in true passing rating, and 3rd in the league in accuracy rating. I know this sounds AMAZING- but that’s the caveat; even after that monstrous season, Burrow finished 2021 as QB8. He would need to outperform those robust statistics to give investors a return on the draft capital necessary to acquire him in drafts.
Patrick …
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