Running Back Regression After Leading the NFL in Rushing
Running Back Regression After Leading the NFL in Rushing Leading the NFL in rushing is a career highlight for most running backs. It also leads to banner fantasy football totals. However, most RBs see a precipitous decline in production the season after topping the league in rushing yards. This running back regression after leading the NFL in rushing has happened in 22 of the past 25 seasons and paints a worrisome fantasy outlook for the league’s reigning rushing king. Many different factors can lead to a sudden dropoff. As my friend Gary Davenport first divulged in his Curse of 370 and revisited for 2025, heavy usage is a key contributor to predicting running back regression. Other variables like coaching changes, strength of schedule, supporting cast, and age also play a role. Before I take a deep dive back through the past 25 seasons, let’s recap all the running backs that have led the NFL in rushing this century and find some key takeaways. NFL Rushing Leaders 2000-2025 Over the past 25 seasons, 20 different running backs led the NFL in rushing yards. Only LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Derrick Henry have done it more than once. You could also doff your proverbial cap to Edgerrin James, who ascended the leaderboard in 1999, becoming the first player since Eric Dickerson (1983-1984) to lead the league in his first two pro campaigns. In all, league-leading backs averaged 340 carries for 1,716 rushing yards (4.98 yards per carry) and scored 15.7 total touchdowns. That averaged out to just under 349 fantasy points (PPR), or 21.9 points per game. The splits were 15 rushing champs from the AFC, while 10 represented the NFC. The NFC East produced five, while the NFC South is the only division that has not had an NFL rushing champ in the last 25 years, nor has there ever been one from that division. The Saints’ George Rogers led the league with 1,674 yards back in 1981, but New Orleans was then part of the NFC West. Leading the league in rushing is more than an individual honor. Coaching, schemes, quarterbacking, and the offensive line all play a pivotal role. There are also numerous other elements that play a role in a team’s ability to manufacture a rushing leader. Contributing Factors for Success Health One of the most important factors for posting big numbers is staying healthy. From 2000-2015, no running back who led the league in rushing missed a single game. Even the backs who missed one were rested by their team in the season finale. Derrick Henry is the only running back in the last 25 years to lead the league in rushing but miss a game due to injury. Henry missed Week 16 of the 2019 season with a hamstring injury and returned to action in the season finale to rush for a season-high 211 yards to top the league. Every other running back in the past 25 seasons to lead the league in rushing has stayed healthy for every game or sat out the regular-season finale to rest for the playoffs. Winning Team Speaking of playoffs, teams that produced the leading rusher averaged 9.96 wins versus 6.2 losses, making the postseason in 18 of the 25 seasons (72%). However, only three of those teams made the Super Bowl, and the only squad to win is the reigning champions, the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles. Having a winning record also leads to more friendly game scripts for the rushing attack. Teams nursing second-half leads tend to rely on their lead backs to grind down the clock. Age The wear and tear that NFL running backs accumulate takes a toll. 20 of the 25 (80%) rushing leaders were under 28 entering the season in which they finished first. Looking at the averages, RBs had a mean age of 25.4 in those seasons. They also averaged 4.6 years of experience. Only two backs (Curtis Martin in 2004, Adrian Peterson in 2015) were older than 28. No rusher who was 29 when the season started has led the NFL in rushing since Barry Sanders did it back in 1997. NFL RUSHING LEADER AGE DISTRIBUTION AGE OCCURANCES RATE 21-23 6 24% 24-26 10 40% 27-28 7 28% 29+ 2 8% Skill Set & Fantasy Production Volume is king in fantasy, and rushers who accumulate enough touches to post elite numbers are typically three-down workhorses. 24 of the 25 RBs posted top-5 fantasy finishes. The only back who did not, Adrian Peterson in 2008, caught only 21 passes for 125 yards in 16 games. In the other 24 seasons tracked, running backs averaged 44 receptions annually. Derrick Henry is an outlier, but part of the formula for RB success in today’s high-octane NFL is to stay on the field on passing downs. However, the inability to do just that, stay on the field, is one of the main reasons we see noteworthy running back regression the year after they lead the league in rushing yards. Immediate Regression in the Next Season While winning a rushing crown is a notable accomplishment for a pro running back, there is usually a staggering dropoff in play the following season. 88% have seen an immediate dip in effectiveness, and it is usually a significant decline. Only three running backs since the 2000 season have posted better fantasy numbers the year after they led the NFL in rushing yards. As for the other 22, they averaged a 36.8% decline in fantasy points the following season. Notable Declines Running backs have always been a hot commodity on draft day. Particularly three-down workhorse backs coming off a rushing crown who finished the previous campaign at an average rank of RB 2.76. But fantasy draft history is loaded with first-round RB busts who stumbled after they broke out the previous season. Running Backs who led the league in rushing in 2000-2024 finished as the RB 2.7 in PPR leagues, but plummeted to an average of RB22.3 the following season.
2024 Fantasy Football Busts
2024 Fantasy Football Busts Everyone wants to read about this year’s hottest sleepers to target. However, knowing which players to avoid is nearly as important. As part of our renowned FullTime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, these are our
Everyone wants to read about this year’s hottest sleepers to target. However, knowing which players to avoid is nearly as important. As part of our renowned FullTime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, these are our Fantasy Football Busts to fade this summer.
Many factors can cause us to avoid players. Usage concerns, lack of performance in the preseason, and injuries all play a role. Conversely, unwarranted hype from around the fantasy football community also factors in.
Regardless of the factors, here are FullTime’s 2024 Fantasy Football Busts and fades.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) – Health was always the biggest concern for Tua Tagovailoa. And right on schedule, as soon as he avoided injuries, Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards. He also posted the top PFF passer rating in the league. However, from a pure fantasy perspective, Tagovailoa wasn’t as good. He ranked 18th in fantasy points per game and
WHO ELSE IS JODY FADING IN 2024?
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2022 Fantasy Football Busts
While it’s always popular to target fantasy football sleepers, avoiding those trap players is just as vital. FullTime’s 2022 fantasy football busts will help you avoid targeting those potential disappointments on the final draft weekend. In addition to helping you
In addition to helping you recognize specific players to draft or avoid, FullTime’s 2022 staff predictions and high-stakes advanced ADP are also valuable tools to utilize on draft day.
We’re finally into September and Week One can’t kick off soon enough! Here are our 2022 fantasy football busts to help you prepare for this final week before another glorious season of NFL football begins. Also, don’t forget to check out reigning No. 1 draft ranker Billy Muzio’s 2022 fantasy football fades 2.0.
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Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) – Burrow is a great real-life quarterback, but is being overdrafted in fantasy leagues. He is going to run into three issues; the offensive scheme, an improved defense, and the division he plays in. The Bengals run a slow offense and with an improved defense will look to run even more this year, and being in the AFC North he will run into bad weather and grind it out games…
What other players should you avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts?
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Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0
Compiling a championship fantasy football roster isn’t just about knowing what sleepers to target. Avoiding potential traps is also vital and Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0 gives FullTime Fantasy Members exclusive insight from 2021’s No. 1 draft ranker. Earlier
Earlier this summer Billy wrote up his initial fade list for 2022. As the preseason has progressed, there are even more players that he plans to avoid at their current ADP.
Focusing on the all-important pass catchers, here is Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0.
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – Like Joe Burrow, I am out on Tee Higgins at his current cost. Higgins is selected as WR #13 and pick #26 in FFWC drafts. You are buying Higgins based on his playoff performance and will be disappointed with his 2022 output. You can insert my argument for Burrow here as everything applies, but let’s dive into Tee Higgins’s independent stats and efficiencies. Higgins finished as the WR#22 or worse in fantasy points per game in 10 of his 14 starts during the regular season. In those 14 games, he had 4 or fewer receptions in 5 games and 62 yards or less in 8 of 14. He was WR#71 in contested catch rate at 25%, WR#77 in true catch rate at 78.7%, WR#31 in target separation, WR#40 in total route wins (#52 vs. man), and WR #36 in routes ran. Don’t get me wrong, Higgins is a good receiver, but not WR#13. Pass on Higgins in the 2nd and early 3rd rounds in your drafts…
What other players are Billy Muzio fading in 2022 fantasy football drafts?
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2022 FullTime Fantasy Staff Predictions
The 2022 NFL season is rapidly approaching and that means it is fantasy football draft season. The 2022 FullTime Fantasy Staff Predictions give you all the insight you’ll need to dominate your league’s draft. FullTime Fantasy’s exclusive Preseason Pro Series
FullTime Fantasy’s exclusive Preseason Pro Series offers unique insight from some of the world’s most successful high-stakes players. In addition, we have the reigning No. 1 draft ranker Billy Muzio and former Most Accurate Expert, Jody Smith, assuring that FullTime Fantasy members get the absolute best rankings and analyses that are available anywhere!
Just like when you visit our PreSeason PRO Hub, we polled the FullTime Fantasy staff to present our official preseason staff picks for sleeper, bust, breakout, and comeback players of the year. For transparency, here’s how we’re defining those picks.
- Sleeper: A player who is being overlooked and will outperform his average draft position (ADP) in 2022.
- Bust: A player who is highly regarded and will underperform his ADP in 2022.
- Breakout: A player (rookies included) who will rise up with career-best numbers in 2022 and make a huge impact.
- Comeback: A player who underperformed or was injured in 2021 and is due for a significant rebound in 2022.
Before you prepare for the real deal, be sure to snag your first free mock draft on us and be eligible for some amazing prizes. Now, let’s get on to the 2022 FullTime Fantasy Staff Predictions.
Our 2022 Breakout Player
Michael Pittman (WR) Indianapolis Colts
Fresh off the heels of a solid WR18 campaign last season, Michael Pittman checks all the boxes of an ascending player. First, he’s already an elite talent with the size (6-4, 223) to dominate in all facets of the game. Secondly, he fits the third-year wide receiver breakout narrative, although the 88/1,082/6 showing in 2021 indicates he has already arrived. Finally, the upgrade from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan can not be understated. Ryan has a history of peppering his No. 1 wideouts with targets. If the past is any indicator, Pittman is about to contend for top-5 fantasy numbers in 2022.
Matt Ryan’s No. 1 WRs
2008- 148 tgts. 88 rec. 1382 yds 7 TD (WR4)
2009- 165 tgts. 85/1153/11 (WR9)
2010- 179 tgts. 115/1389/10 (WR1)
2011- 180 tgts. 100/1296/8 (WR5)
2012- 142 tgts. 92/1351/7 (WR10)
2013- Julio Jones played just 5 games but pace of 188 tgts. 131/1856/6 (WR2)— Jody Smith #TagsStrong💪 (@JodySmithNFL) August 22, 2022
Looking at our 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings, we’re all-in on Pittman in 2022. And that’s why he’s our easy pick for 2022 Breakout Player of the Year.
You MUST See the FullTime Staff’s picks for sleeper, bust, and comeback!!
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2022 Fantasy Football Fades
Please note: This will be updated again after the Preseason weekend on 8/20. 2.0 is coming! The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to
Below you can find my 2022 fade list with detailed reasonings and data supporting my choice to pass on players when I am on the clock. But before we begin, I think it’s important to clarify what I mean by fade.
Fading a player does not mean I will not draft a player- There is a point at which every player is draftable; that cost is up for you to decide. However, considering my overall roster portfolios, I roster fewer of these players than the rest, and I think it would be irresponsible or foolish not to own any.
That being said, I often find myself passing on these players due to the draft capital required to acquire them, and I will continue to fade them unless something in the offseason changes the fantasy landscape or their projected outlook.
Let’s dive into Part One of my 2022 Fade List for the 2022 fantasy football season, looking at quarterbacks and running backs.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow– Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Burrow, and I love his weapons, but I can’t get behind the cost it takes to acquire him in drafts. Burrow is currently being selected as QB6 in early FFWC draft rooms. He is going ahead of Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, to name a few.
Cincinnati’s strength of schedule sits at .536 in 2022. That ranks as the third-highest behind the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. We also need to consider his fantasy shootout schedule (weeks 15-17). Burrow faces the best of the best, starting with the Bucs, Pats, and then Bills. Looking at Joe Burrow’s successes in 2021, we can’t help but think there will be some regression in 2022.
Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%; he was 8th in the league in TD’s, 6th in the league in money throws, 3rd in the league in touchdown rate at 6.5%, 8th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.1%, 2nd in the league in true passing rating, and 3rd in the league in accuracy rating. I know this sounds AMAZING- but that’s the caveat; even after that monstrous season, Burrow finished 2021 as QB8. He would need to outperform those robust statistics to give investors a return on the draft capital necessary to acquire him in drafts.
Patrick …
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