Fantasy Football Fades
Fantasy Football Fades Everyone loves targeting upside players in fantasy drafts. However, knowing which players are likely to be overdrafted is just as important. Whether you call them fades, busts, or add them to a ‘do not draft’ list, avoiding these risks at their current ADP is crucial. Here are my fantasy football fades for the 2025 season. Quarterbacks Justin Fields (New York Jets) Fields has always been a better fantasy option than a real quarterback due to his rushing prowess. But I have concerns about how that will play out with a new, defensive-oriented staff. Fields is also quick to tuck the ball and run, which harms the rest of New York’s fantasy assets. That run-first instinct also gets Fields injured a lot. Simply too much risk to draft Fields in QB1 range when there are plenty of safer options. Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) I love the addition of Ben Johnson and the supporting cast, but Williams was awful as a rookie. Among full-time starters, he ranked dead last in sack rate (10%) and was next to last in adjusted completion rate. Too many of those sacks were on Williams, and he struggled throughout camp to adjust to Johnson’s new offense. It’s too early to call Williams a bust. I think he’s being overdrafted by 3-4 spots. Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) Speaking of Johnson, his departure will impact Detroit’s offense dramatically. Goff has outplayed his ADP in the last three seasons. But Detroit plays six outdoor games, and Johnson’s departure makes it hard to trust Goff as anything more than a QB2 with weekly upside. Running Backs James Cook (Buffalo Bills) Getting Cook signed and active for some of the preseason was a positive development for Cook’s value. I’ve moved him up several spots in my rankings. However, he’s still one of the top touchdown regression candidates and missed valuable reps throughout August. Cook is still a decent RB2, but he’s nearly always off the board well before I would pull the trigger in the late 4th or 5th round. Joe Mixon (Houston Texans) If this were a ‘do not draft’ article, Mixon would be featured in that as well. The Texans have been far from transparent about Mixon’s knee. What we do know is that Mixon will open the season on the IR, meaning he’ll miss a minimum of four games. However, what’s concerning is that DeMeco Ryans has said there is no timetable for Mixon’s return to practice. Mixon is outside my top 50 running backs. Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns) This second-round rookie is another middle-round option that I want nothing to do with. Judkins isn’t even signed and is facing a potential length suspension. There are rumors that he could even attempt to re-enroll at college to re-enter the 2026 NFL Draft. Even if he were signed, you have to question what kind of shape Judkins would be in. I don’t think he’s going to make any significant fantasy impact in 2025. Wide Receivers Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders) Another candidate for touchdown regression, McLaurin, also missed time due to a contract impasse. That’s been resolved, but McLaurin will also have a hard time replicating his 16 end zone targets or 57% air yards share (3rd) with Deebo Samuel now in the lineup. Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens) Lamar Jackson threw for a career-high 41 touchdowns last season. But Flowers only caught four of those. Jackson is another massive regression candidate, and Flowers’ upside is capped. He lacks TD upside and will struggle to produce consistent WR3 upside in a run-first Ravens’ offense. Teammate Rashod Bateman is another fantasy football fade I’m avoiding. Non-Ricky Pearsall WR (San Francisco 49ers) Our thoughts on Ricky Pearsall are well documented. And I love Brock Purdy as one of the top QB values. However, I’m not that interested in the rest of San Francisco’s receiving corps. Jauan Jennings, coming off a breakout season of his own, has missed the entire preseason with a holdout. Jennings is also dealing with a calf injury. Speaking of injuries, Brandon Aiyuk will open the season on IR, meaning he will miss at least the first four games of the campaign. And coming off a torn ACL, he’s likely to be limited when he does return. This points to a massive target share from Pearsall and TE George Kittle, but makes the rest of San Francisco’s pass-catching corps unappealing. Tight Ends Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) Forget the off-the-field stuff. Kelce will be 36 this season, but has been in decline for at least three years. His yards per catch, YAC, yards per route run, and forced missed tackles have all dipped significantly. Worse, he’s no longer making plays downfield, and Kansas City may be limiting his usage in the regular season to save him for another deep playoff run. It all points to a player who is a fringe TE1, not the TE6 that his current ADP dictates. Finally, are you a Die-Hard Fantasy Football Player? CLICK HERE to Start Your Road to the 2025 Fantasy Football World Championships.
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2024 Fantasy Football Busts
2024 Fantasy Football Busts Everyone wants to read about this year’s hottest sleepers to target. However, knowing which players to avoid is nearly as important. As part of our renowned FullTime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, these are our
Everyone wants to read about this year’s hottest sleepers to target. However, knowing which players to avoid is nearly as important. As part of our renowned FullTime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, these are our Fantasy Football Busts to fade this summer.
Many factors can cause us to avoid players. Usage concerns, lack of performance in the preseason, and injuries all play a role. Conversely, unwarranted hype from around the fantasy football community also factors in.
Regardless of the factors, here are FullTime’s 2024 Fantasy Football Busts and fades.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) – Health was always the biggest concern for Tua Tagovailoa. And right on schedule, as soon as he avoided injuries, Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards. He also posted the top PFF passer rating in the league. However, from a pure fantasy perspective, Tagovailoa wasn’t as good. He ranked 18th in fantasy points per game and
WHO ELSE IS JODY FADING IN 2024?
To finish reading Jody’s 2024 fantasy football busts…
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The 2024 Draft Kit
FullTime Fantasy presents our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Kit that will have you DOMINATING your competition all season long!
2023 Fantasy Football Fades
2023 Fantasy Football Fades Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players
Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players who are being over-drafted in 2023.
For me, the most challenging category each football season in the fantasy market is the fade/bust category. In most cases, a player underachieves expectations due to an injury. I’m looking for players coming off career years that look overpriced in drafts. In addition, some players will be ranked with more established options, putting them in a one-year wonder category.
Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders
There is no doubt Jacobs has talent and upside, but he is coming off a massive workload (393 touches), leading to an exceptional season (2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 53 catches). Unfortunately, the Raiders failed to pick up his fifth-year option before last year, putting him in the “franchise tag category.”
Jacobs turned 25 in February, and he wants to get paid. When training camp opened in July, his flight left town. His holdout could be lengthy, creating a fantasy dilemma. His 2022 stats suggest a value in the second round. I expect regression in his output and some injury risk by not being at training camp. Jacobs was an excellent buy last year, but I sense a potential trap even if he slides to the third round in PPR formats.
Over the past seven seasons, a running back has led the NFL in combined yards, with each outcome resulting in…
WHAT PLAYERS SHOULD YOU AVOID THIS SEASON?
FIND OUT WHO SHAWN’S TOP-5 FANTASY FOOTBALL FADES IN 2023…
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2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
FullTime Fantasy presents our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Kit that will have you DOMINATING your competition all season long!
2022 Fantasy Football Busts
While it’s always popular to target fantasy football sleepers, avoiding those trap players is just as vital. FullTime’s 2022 fantasy football busts will help you avoid targeting those potential disappointments on the final draft weekend. In addition to helping you
In addition to helping you recognize specific players to draft or avoid, FullTime’s 2022 staff predictions and high-stakes advanced ADP are also valuable tools to utilize on draft day.
We’re finally into September and Week One can’t kick off soon enough! Here are our 2022 fantasy football busts to help you prepare for this final week before another glorious season of NFL football begins. Also, don’t forget to check out reigning No. 1 draft ranker Billy Muzio’s 2022 fantasy football fades 2.0.
Bookmark FullTime Fantasy’s Customizable 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) – Burrow is a great real-life quarterback, but is being overdrafted in fantasy leagues. He is going to run into three issues; the offensive scheme, an improved defense, and the division he plays in. The Bengals run a slow offense and with an improved defense will look to run even more this year, and being in the AFC North he will run into bad weather and grind it out games…
What other players should you avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts?
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Trending Sleepers: Should You Target or Fade
This time of year, Twitter is ablaze with hot takes and speculation about this year’s biggest sleepers. Knowing which of these trending sleepers to target or fade can make all the difference. No draft will successfully land every desired player but knowing who is overhyped or the real deal is huge. Is there a late-round Amon-Ra St. Brown to target? How about avoiding this year’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Round 2? Here are some of 2022’s hottest sleepers to target or fade in your fantasy football drafts. Sleepers to Target Cam Akers (RB) Los Angeles Rams After watching Akers look abysmal after returning from his torn Achillies last year, fantasy owners are justifiably hesitant to draft him at his current ADP as the RB18. However, the risk is baked into the price. He played tough run defenses upon his return last season and came back in record time. With a full offseason to recover, you are getting a back with RB1 upside in an explosive offense as a mid-range RB2 or possibly later. Sure, there is risk involved, nevertheless, he’s well worth his price tag. Rashod Bateman (WR) Baltimore Ravens I see almost no downside with Bateman. A lot of people seem to be overthinking this one. I don’t Lamar Jackson or this offense for wideouts either, but we saw Marquise Brown be successful as the WR1. Bateman is a better player than Brown and should fill the target vacuum perfectly. He’s a stronger player, runs better routes, and has better hands. Not only do I expect him to be as good as Hollywood, but he should be better. Don’t overthink this one. He’s being drafted as a WR3. He has WR1 upside and a WR2 floor. Allen Robinson (WR) Los Angeles Rams This one is pretty simple. We’ve seen Robinson be great before. Last year he was atrocious in a terrible offense with a bad quarterback. This year he goes to the Rams who have a great offense and a very good quarterback. With Robert Woods and Odell Beckham gone, Robinson should slide right in and be great again. This logic tracks with me. I don’t believe Robinson is washed and he has the potential to be a steal as the WR23. I’ve seen him personally fall to the WR30. Grab him, plug him in and you have a sure-fire WR2 with WR1 upside. Evan Engram (TE) Jacksonville Jaguars I’m not going to come here and tell you Evan Engram is great, however, I do think he’s being undervalued by the fantasy community. His current ADP is sitting at 190.11 while Kmet is at 137. Give me Engram every time. The Jags gave a ton of money to a bunch of mediocre weapons this offseason, but those mediocre players are still the best they got and they are going to use them often. Trevor Lawrence loved throwing to his tight ends and slot guys last year. As long as Engram can stay healthy he should have a prominent role in this passing game and you can get him for almost nothing. Finally, the Jaguars just happen to play the league’s easiest TE schedule according to FullTime Fantasy’s Strength of Schedule Tool. Doug Pederson’s TEs in PPR pts/game: 2013- Fasano 6.8 (39th) 2014- Kelce 11.5 (9th) 2015- Kelce 11.8 (9th) 2016- Ertz 13.1 (3rd) 2017- Ertz 14.6 (3rd) 2018- Ertz 17.5 (2nd) 2019- Ertz 14.4 (4th) 2019- Goedert 9.9 (13th) 2020- Goedert 10.6 (10th) Evan Engram current ADP TE24 — Jody Smith #TagsStrong💪 (@JodySmithNFL) June 21, 2022 Sleepers to Fade Trey Lance (QB) San Francisco 49ers No unproven quarterback is getting more love this season than Lance. People see a mobile quarterback with a cannon of an arm and fall in love with the upside. Unfortunately, it seems like many people are completely ignoring all the potential downsides. Based on our FFWC high-stakes ADP, he is currently being drafted as a QB1. I’ve personally seen him drafted as high as the QB8. The fantasy community has fallen in love with him, but we’ve only seen him put up one decent game in the NFL and he had one good season against subpar competition at North Dakota State. Falling flat on his face and being a terrible NFL quarterback is well within the range of outcomes for Lance in 2022. J.K. Dobbins (RB) Baltimore Ravens Until I hear some good news surrounding Dobbins, I want no part of his RB2 ADP this year. Even if healthy, he’s going to split time with Gus Edwards. Also, QB Lamar Jackson is going to steal carries and touchdowns, and Dobbins won’t’ catch many passes. Add in rumors that he may have also had LCL damage and could start the year on the PUP list, and I’m out. If news changes on the injury front and we see him out there this preseason then I’m back in on him as a low-end RB2. However, as of now, I’ll let someone else deal with that headache. Rashaad Penny (RB) Seattle Seahawks Penny was dominant at the end of last season and people are expecting to get a gem when drafting him. His price tag isn’t bad as the RB31, however, I don’t expect him to be the diamond in the rough people are looking for him to be. His career has been marred by injury and now he’s running behind a bad offensive line with Russell Wilson shipped out of town. Defenses no longer have any reason to worry about the quarterback play with Geno Smith and Drew Lock battling it out for the starting job. Unless the team makes some moves to make that offense better, I want no parts of an injury-plagued back on arguably the worst offense in football. Gabriel Davis (WR) Buffalo Bills The last time we saw Davis on the field was in the second round of the playoffs and he caught eight of 10 targets for 201 yards and four TDs. People fell in love for obvious reasons. I love his talent, but I just don’t see his
2022 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
FullTime Fantasy presents our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Kit that will have you DOMINATING your competition all season long!
2022 Fantasy Football Fades
Please note: This will be updated again after the Preseason weekend on 8/20. 2.0 is coming! The 2022 fantasy football season is upon us; people are flocking to draft rooms with their draft cheat sheets and rankings in hand to
Below you can find my 2022 fade list with detailed reasonings and data supporting my choice to pass on players when I am on the clock. But before we begin, I think it’s important to clarify what I mean by fade.
Fading a player does not mean I will not draft a player- There is a point at which every player is draftable; that cost is up for you to decide. However, considering my overall roster portfolios, I roster fewer of these players than the rest, and I think it would be irresponsible or foolish not to own any.
That being said, I often find myself passing on these players due to the draft capital required to acquire them, and I will continue to fade them unless something in the offseason changes the fantasy landscape or their projected outlook.
Let’s dive into Part One of my 2022 Fade List for the 2022 fantasy football season, looking at quarterbacks and running backs.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow– Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Burrow, and I love his weapons, but I can’t get behind the cost it takes to acquire him in drafts. Burrow is currently being selected as QB6 in early FFWC draft rooms. He is going ahead of Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson, to name a few.
Cincinnati’s strength of schedule sits at .536 in 2022. That ranks as the third-highest behind the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. We also need to consider his fantasy shootout schedule (weeks 15-17). Burrow faces the best of the best, starting with the Bucs, Pats, and then Bills. Looking at Joe Burrow’s successes in 2021, we can’t help but think there will be some regression in 2022.
Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%; he was 8th in the league in TD’s, 6th in the league in money throws, 3rd in the league in touchdown rate at 6.5%, 8th in the league in deep ball completion percentage at 43.1%, 2nd in the league in true passing rating, and 3rd in the league in accuracy rating. I know this sounds AMAZING- but that’s the caveat; even after that monstrous season, Burrow finished 2021 as QB8. He would need to outperform those robust statistics to give investors a return on the draft capital necessary to acquire him in drafts.
Patrick …
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