2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview

The 30th season in Jacksonville Jaguars history sees the club at a crossroads. After an 8-3 start, the team lost five of their final six to miss the playoffs. With the division-rival Texans surging and facing a tough schedule, Doug Pederson has his work cut out in 2024.

QB Trevor Lawrence saw his numbers dip slightly in 2023. Lawrence rushed for a career-best 339 yards but his passing efficiency and production declined. He also missed the first game of his career, resulting in Lawrence finishing outside the top 12 fantasy scorers after finishing as QB7 in 2022.

Still, Lawrence is a good runner who will produce 4,000 passing yards and will be in a good position to challenge for fantasy QB1 production again. Drafters will also benefit from a slight dip in T-Law’s ADP.

The loss of Jacksonville’s top receiver (Calvin Ridley) will hurt. Enter Gabe Davis, who signed a three-year $39 million deal to act as the Jags’ main perimeter and deep threat. Davis was an erratic producer in Buffalo, with five 20-plus point games interspersed with four outings with zero points. The Jaguars and fantasy managers will need Pederson to unlock consistent targets for Davis to come anywhere near Ridley’s production.

Christian Kirk should reclaim his role as Jacksonville’s top wideout. Kirk missed five starts and only eclipsed 100-plus yards twice last season. With Ridley’s 22.4% target share now available, Kirk is a good bet to surpass 100 targets. Kirk is an excellent mid-round value.

After trading down, Jacksonville also added talented LSU rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. to the fold. Thomas has an outstanding blend of size (6-3, 209) and speed and is in play for deep-ball shots.

TE Evan Engram led the club in targets and target share while leading all NFL tight ends with 114 receptions. That insane volume led to Engram posting TE2 numbers in PPR formats. However, he’s unlikely to repeat his position-leading 143 targets with the added target competition.

RB Travis Etienne posted overall RB3 numbers thanks to a career-best 12 touchdowns. After surpassing five yards per carry in 2022, Etienne struggled to 3.8 yards per tote last season. Volume (325 touches ranked third) and that red-zone prowess were significant factors in his strong fantasy showing.

Pederson has indicated that D’Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby will be more involved in 2024. Additionally, fifth-round rookie Keiland Robinson adds depth. If these ancillary weapons are more involved it will be hard for Etienne to replicate last year’s production.

From a fantasy perspective, the Jaguars have quality options at every position but lack depth. There’s plenty of appeal but a Jags stack should be approached with caution.

Quarterbacks

QB TREVOR LAWRENCE – SOLID/SAFE PICK

After a rough start, Trevor Lawrence had five weekly QB1 finishes in his final seven starts to post his second consecutive top-12 fantasy season. Although the passing numbers aren’t overwhelming, Lawrence bolsters his value by averaging a healthy 19.3 rushing yards per game with 11 TD runs in three seasons. Lawrence’s fourth season sees him at a crossroads. He hasn’t developed into the superstar prospect many considered him and the Jaguars are just 20-30 during Lawrence’s career. However, he’s been a solid, if unspectacular fantasy option. Jacksonville will need inconsistent Gabe Davis to step up big in place of the departed Calvin Ridley if Lawrecne is going to post his third QB1 finish in four years. ADVICE: Decent target with limited ceiling…

 

Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report

The Browns/Jaguars game delivered the top two tight ends for Week 14. Evan Engram (11/95/02 had the best game of his career, coming on the heels of scoring his first touchdown (9/82/1) the previous week. David Njoku (6/91/2) also scored twice. The Rams decided not to cover Isaiah Likely on his 54-yard scamper for a touchdown, setting up a Mark Andrews-type day (5/83/1). Hunter Henry (19.00) and George Kittle (16.60) rounded out the top five in fantasy points. Here are the top five tight ends by scoring average after 14 weeks:

• Travis Kelce (15.28)
• T.J. Hockenson (15.22)
• Sam LaPorta (13.58)
• Evan Engram (13.16)
• George Kittle (13.10)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 15 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 14 DFS: QB Report, RB Report, and WR Report.

Elite Option

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,500)

Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been able to get Kelce rolling over the six weeks. Over this span, he caught 32 of his 44 targets for 371 yards and one touchdown, leading to only steady fantasy production in five games (11.80, 16.40, 15.10, 12.10, and 14.30). His recent stats don’t command his current salary. Kelce has one impact game (12/179/1) and a pair of 20.00-point outcomes (22.70 and 21.40), all coming between Week 5 and Week 7. Over his past five matchups, he averaged seven targets (8.9 in 2022 and 8.4 in 2021).

New England climbed to sixth in tight end defense (56/500/1 on 82 targets). Foster Moreau is the only tight end to score vs. the defense. The Raiders (7/94) and Bills (9/85) had the most success in fantasy points. Overall, the Patriots’ opposing TEs have 696 catches for 6,848 yards and 41 touchdowns on 1,007 targets, coming to 10.63 fantasy points per game (the best tight end schedule in the league). 

Kelce should reach 100 catches with more than 1,000 yards receiving again this year, giving fantasy teams an edge at the tight end position. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been as wide as in 2022 (5.93 fantasy points per game over the second-ranked tight end). His matchup looks below par, and his salary commands 30+ fantasy points to be an edge. The Chiefs need to find their offensive identity after losing three games (53 combined points) over the past four weeks. I can dismiss him due to Kelce being the top target in Kansas City’s offense with scoring upside…

WHO ELSE DOES SHAWN THINK ARE MUST-PLAY OPTIONS THIS WEEK?…

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Week 12 DFS: Tight End Report

Last week, the tight end position had a down week in scoring, leading to only eight players scoring over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats. Three of those tight ends (Josh Oliver – 14.70, Stone Smartt – 12.10, and Luke Schoonmaker – 10.30) were backup options on their teams. George Kittle (22.90) was the only difference-maker at tight end in Week 12. Travis Kelce (16.40) posted the second-best game. Here are the top five tight ends over 11 weeks ranked by scoring average:

• Travis Kelce (15.71)
• T.J. Hockenson (15.60)
• George Kittle (13.80)
• Sam LaPorta (12.52)
• Mark Andrews (12.31)

Here are the top plays this week via the Week 11 DFS: Tight End Report. Also, check out the Week 12 DFS: QB Report.

Elite Options

Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,300)

The Chiefs struggled to get Kelce the ball over the past three weeks (6/58, 3/14, 7/44/1 on 22 combined targets), putting the brakes on his rising stock from Week 5 to Week 7 (31/370/2 on 33 targets). Last year, he had 13 catches for 63 yards and four touchdowns on 15 targets in two games vs. the Raiders. Kelce has a floor of nine targets in seven of his nine starts.

Las Vegas sits 11th in tight end fantasy defense (55/481/3 on 68 targets), with no player gaining more than 70 receiver yards (Tyler Conklin – 7/70). Their higher ranking is helped by a favorable tight end schedule (DEN – 7/56, BUF – 8/53/1, PIT – 3/41/1, LAC – 2/9, GB – 8/65, NE – 5/50, CHI – 1/16, DET – 9/62/1, NYG – 3/43, NYJ – 8/76, and MIA – 1/10). 

Based on his salary, Kelce should be considered an elite WR1 in the DFS market. He needs 30+ fantasy points to fill his salary bucket which requires a 7/100/2 type outcome. The decision is whether Kelce can match the top running backs and wide receivers in Week 12. 

Mid-Tier Options

 

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2023  Jacksonville Jaguars Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence had a sensational three-year career at Clemson. He went 34-2, with his two losses coming in the national championship playoffs. Lawrence won the MVP and national championship in his freshman season in 2018. 

He finished his college career with 10,098 passing yards, 90 passing touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. His completion rate (66.6) improved each year (69.2 in 2020). Over his last two seasons, Lawrence scored 17 rushing touchdowns while gaining 766 yards on 171 carries. His value as a runner peaked in 2019 (103/563/9 – 5.5 yards per rush). 

Lawrence’s rookie hype/buzz ended after Week 1 (332/3). He threw seven interceptions over his first three starts, plus two lost fumbles. Over his final 16 games, Lawrence passed for over 300 yards in one other game (319/1) while averaging only 199 passing yards with nine touchdowns over his other 15 contests. He finished the year ranked 22nd in quarterback scoring (257.65) in four-point passing touchdown leagues, with 17.6% of his scoring coming via the run game (73/334/2). The Jaguars’ offensive line allowed 32 sacks.

Last season, Lawrence played at the level that Jacksonville envisioned when drafting him in 2021. He gained 4,404 combined yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His one lacking area was his yards per pass attempt (7.0). Lawrence gained more than 300 yards in six games, with his best play coming in Week 14 (386/4) and Week 15 (339/4). However, defenses held him to one passing touchdown or fewer in 11 of his 19 games (including the postseason). 

Fantasy Outlook: Lawrence finished last season 7th in fantasy scoring (354.05) in four-point passing touchdown formats. He posted between 20.00 and 30.00 fantasy points in nine starts while adding two impact showings (37.10 and 32.00) over 19 games. Lawrence ranks eighth at quarterback in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. His next step should be 4,800 combined yards with 30 passing touchdowns, thanks to Calvin Ridley being added to the wide receiver mix. He also should chip in with repeated success on the ground.

Other Options: C.J. Beathard, Nathan Rourke

— Running Backs —

Over the past three seasons, the Jaguars’ running backs have seen their yards per rush and yards per catch rise each year. A winning season and a new coaching staff led to 70 more rushing attempts than in 2021 but a minimal change in overall opportunity in the passing game. The latter was surprising, as I expected Travis Etienne to have a much better pass-catching opportunity. In the end, their running backs combined for 2,317 yards with 14 touchdowns and 64 catches or 22.34 FPPG in PPR formats.

Travis Etienne

After dominating in the run game for Clemson in 2018 (204/1,658/24) and 2019 (207/1,614/19) while averaging almost eight yards per carry, Etienne had a more challenging time finding open space at the second level of the defense in 2020 (168/914/14 – 5.4 yards per rush). He compensated for this shortfall by upping his value in the passing game (48/588/2). Over his final two years in college, he proved more than worthy as a pass-catcher (85/1,020/6). 

Etienne played in a high-scoring offense in college, allowing him to make big plays up the middle or outside. His vision and feel for play development helped him find the needed space to beat weaker defenses for long touchdowns. Etienne offered a drop step in the open field that led to catching some defenders flat-footed, creating the space to finish runs on the outside with touchdowns. Defenders had a tough time bringing him down with arm and half-body tackles. When turning up field, his speed is almost deceiving, letting Etienne blow by tacklers who take poor angles.

His next step in his development will be proving his worth in pass protection and showing the ability to make the proper reads on blitzes. In 2020, Etienne had a four-game stretch with a fumble (three lost), but he only had four fumbles over his previous three seasons in college (five in 2022 with the Jaguars with three lost). His speed projects to be close to 4.40 in the 40-yard dash.

After sitting out his rookie season with a foot injury, Etienne gained 1,441 combined yards on 255 touches with five touchdowns and 35 catches. He gained 5.1 yards per rush and 9.0 yards per catch, thanks to 11 plays gaining 20 yards or more. In addition, Etienne passed the 40-yard mark on four occasions. 

The Jaguars limited his chances over the first five weeks due to James Robinson out snapping him 175 to 159. Over this stretch, Robinson scored five times, while Etienne didn’t reach paydirt until his seventh game. He gained more than 100 yards from Week 7 to Week 9 (14/114/1, 24/156/1, and 28/109/2), but Etienne only had six combined catches for 51 yards over this span. After an early exit in Week 12 (2/3 on five snaps), Jacksonville gave him only 16.75 touches per game over his final eight starts (including the postseason), leading to 712 combined yards with two touchdowns and 17 catches.

Fantasy Outlook: Etienne ended the season ranked 17th in running back scoring (208.10) in PPR leagues, but he failed to be a difference-maker late in the year. In 2023, Etienne comes off the board as the 13th running back while needing to answer two questions about his ceiling. First, will Jacksonville give him more passing chances? And second, will the Jaguars give him more carries inside the 10-yard line (24 in 2022)? Also, incoming rookie RB Tank Bigsby could develop into a thorn at the goal line and steal some of Etienne’s chances in the run game. My early thought is 1,600 combined yards with about seven scores and 45 catches, making him a borderline top-12 back in PPR formats.

Tank Bigsby

Over his 35 games at Auburn, Bigsby rushed for 2,903 yards on 540 carries with 25 touchdowns. He added 62 catches for 448 yards on 89 targets. His best production came in 2021 (223/1,099/10 and 21 catches for 184 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: Bigsby has the talent to seize the Jaguars’ backup running back job, with a chance to get eight to 10 touches. Between James Robinson and JaMycal Hasty, they gained 703 yards with seven touchdowns and 32 catches. Bigsby ranks 50th at running back in the early high-stakes market. That gives him…

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE JAGUARS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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