Jaguar Lou’s Cheat Sheet – 1/22/18
Jaguar Lou’s Cheat Sheet – 1/22/18 Will be updated throughout the day If you’re not max entering GPP tournaments, I strongly recommend only playing single entry and 3-5 person leagues. Point Guard Elite PG Play: Damian Lillard & John Wall Mid-Range PG Play: Ricky Rubio & Eric Bledsoe GPP Value/Punt PG play: Jerian Grant Shooting Guard Elite SG Play: Andrew Wiggins Mid-Range SG Play: Wayne Ellington GPP Value/Punt SG Play: Justin Holiday & Kent Bazemore Small Forward Elite SF Play: T.J Warren Mid-Range SF Play: Josh Richardson & Harrison Barnes GPP Value/Punt SF play: Nemanja Bjelica Power Forward Elite PF Play: Ben Simmons Mid-Range PF Play: James Johnson PP Value/Punt PF Play: John Henson & Trey Lyles Center Elite C Play: Karl Anthony Towns Mid-Range C Play: Dwight Howard GPP Value/Punt C Play: Not paying down a Center tonight
Scouting the NBA 1/22/18
Plays of the Day Value: T.J. McConnell continues to provide solid lines for the Sixers and his path to playing time is quite secure with J.J. Redick (leg) ruled out over the next week or so. Memphis is no longer a defense to fear. Fade: Chris Paul had a monstrous game against the Warriors and remains a safe play in the upper-tier range, but he should start to share responsibilities with James Harden more as The Beard works his way back and draws a tough matchup tonight against Miami. Point Guards Eric Bledsoe – (8,200 DK/8,300 FD) His initial line left something to be desired on Saturday, but with Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) still out and Malcolm Brogdon (personal) questionable, Bledsoe remains a strong option to consider against his former team. He clearly ramped up when facing the Suns earlier this season, producing 30 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals in a “revenge game” and he should dominate his individual matchup once again. The Suns play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league and thusly give up the second-most SPG (8.7), while Bledsoe averages a team-high 2.2 swipes per game. T.J. McConnell – (5,000 DK/5,400 FD) McConnell remains a solid cash play right now as he seems to be the biggest beneficiary with J.J. Redick (leg) out. He’s averaging 14 PPG, 5.5 APG and 2.8 SPG over his last four appearances and faces a Grizzlies defense that’s far more vulnerable in the backcourt with Mike Conley (Achilles) inactive. Even though his usage doesn’t chance much with Redick out, increased playing time has led to solid lines from the Arizona product. Potential Value Ricky Rubio – (5,200 DK/5,400 FD) Rubio is a solid cash play in the same range as McConnell and he seems to be benefitting from the return of Rudy Gobert. Longshot Goran Dragic – (7,400 DK/7,200 FD) Dragic should return tonight from a knee injury and he could thrive in an uptempo matchup against the Rockets. Shooting Guards James Harden – (10,200 DK/10,300 FD) Play Harden while he’s relatively cheap, because he appears to be almost fully recovered from his hamstring injury. The Beard played 34 minutes in Saturday’s win over the Warriors even though he was expected to be limited to 30 and looked very sharp while nailing 5-of-9 attempts from long range with 22 points and eight assists. He’ll continue to knock off the rust and is definitely worth using at home against the injury-plagued Heat, a team that he averages 39 PPG, 12 RPG and 11 APG against over two meetings last season. Khris Middleton – (8,700 DK/8,600 FD) Middleton remains a recommended option with Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) ruled out because he’ll face the defenseless Suns rather than a defense that’s capable of slowing him down as the Bucks’ primary playmaker. Phoenix ranks 29th in defensive rating and gives up the most PPG (26.29) and most FPPG (46.27) to opposing SGs this season. Middleton dropped a season-high 40 points in his sole meeting with the Suns earlier this year and he’s played 40-plus minutes in three consecutives appearances for the shorthanded Bucks. Potential Value Denzel Valentine – (5,200 DK/4,900 FD) Valentine will play some point forward for Chicago and see more usage with Kris Dunn (concussion) out. Longshot Devin Booker – (8,900 DK/8,500 FD) Booker is a great correlation play on the Suns side of the ball if you’re using Bledsoe and/or Middleton. Small Forwards James Johnson – (5,600 DK/5,600 FD) Johnson’s playing time has been the shakiest aspect of his production, but the Heat roster is riddled with injuries and as a result he exceeded value with 22 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists in a narrow win at Charlotte Saturday. His playing time has stabilized around 27 MPG, but JJ could see more run than usual as Miami’s best defensive option against James Harden. He’s only a mid-tier tournament option, but his ability to pile up peripheral and defensive stats makes him worth a long look on FanDuel. Wesley Johnson – (4,400 DK/4,600 FD) Johnson has emerged as a great option while exceeding value in each of his last five appearances and he’s likely to remain reliable with DeAndre Jordan (ankle) out. He’s playing 27 MPG and has shot 22-of-46 (47.8%) from the floor during that span, while his length and athleticism allows him to produce solid peripheral stats as well. The potential return of Danilo Gallinari (hip) would limit his potential, but Gallo would be limited even if activated after a multi-month layoff. Potential Value Dillon Brooks – (4,500 DK/4,000 FD) Brooks is questionable with an illness, but if he’s active he’ll have a great chance to meet value with the Grizzlies shorthanded. Longshot Josh Richardson – (6,300 DK/6,300 FD) Richardson would become a virtual must play if Goran Dragic (knee) and Tyler Johnson (shoulder) remain out for Miami. Power Forwards Blake Griffin – (8,600 DK/8,400 FD) Seemingly hated throughout the NBA, Griffin is also a bit under priced on both main DFS sites as a reliable cash play with plenty of upside. Lou Williams is hogging a lot of shots, but the Clippers are still running things through Griffin. His 25.9 percent assist rate and 29.8 percent usage rate are both up from last year when Chris Paul was running the show and the Clips could get into another shootout against a Wolves team that ranks 23rd in defensive rating this season. Nikola Mirotic – (6,600 DK/6,500 FD) Kris Dunn had been carrying the Bulls offense lately with Mirotic as one of the supporting actors, so now the Croatian national might have to step into a leading role. He sees a 3.8 percent rise in usage rate with Dunn off the floor this season and he’s been solid lately with averages of 17 PPG and 6 RPG over his last four appearances. Obviously it’s tough to score inside against the Pelicans with Anthony Davis down low, but Mirotic has an above average perimeter
Scouting NHL DFS: Monday, 1/22
Monday, January 22nd Six games tonight in the NHL, lets keep a nice weekend streak rolling tonight. STACKS Flames … Mike Smith is going to be our chalk goalie tonight assuming he is in net for the Flames. But the real reason the Flames are heavy home favorites is because the Sabres can’t stop or beat anyone. Monahan-Gaudreau-Ferlund is my favorite multi-goal stack tonight. Islanders … The Isles continue to give us two lines that we can play each night and it is reaching the point where people are fading the Law Firm line of Tavares, Bailey and Lee simply because of their price and the discount you get with Barzal, Eberle and Beauvillier. Being on the road, I like the discounted price tag of the state appointed attorney’s, Barzal, Eberle and Beauvillier and will ride with them on my main lineup tonight. Wild … Koivu & Zucker… I don’t hate pairing Granlund if he plays (…he should play…) and Spurgeon or Suter in here to make it a 4 person stack, but since I like the Flames and Isles so much I’ll spread out the exposure most likely tonight. Leafs … Matthews & Nylander … With Kadri likely taking on the MacKinnon line I think Matthews and Willie could get some great chances tonight on home ice. CENTERS Nathan MacKinnon will likely draw Kadri’s line tonight in Toronto which bumps him down slightly. Matthews on the other hand will likely avoid MacKinnon which makes him a great one off play in that matchup which should be fun to watch. Eric Staal and the Wild are sneaky, I want exposure to them tonight. Tier 1 – Tavares, Eichel, Barzal, Stamkos, Matthews Tier 2 – MacKinnon, Staal, Monahan, Zetterberg WINGS A good spot to get some more Wild sneaky exposure with Granlund or Zucker paired with Koivu on the top line for the Wild. Granlund was under the weather and is listed as questionable, but should play. Johnny Gaudreau is my top one off stud winger tonight ahead of Kuch and Kane, who I both like but prefer Gaudreau’s multi-goal upside against Buffalo. No team is giving up more Goals per game to LW than the Sabres. Fire away Johnny G…. Tier 1 – Kucherov, P.Kane, Gaudreau, Hall, Bailey/Lee Tier 2 – Eberle, Granlund/Zucker, T.Johnson, Ferlund, Parise, Nylander, Stafford DEFENSE This is a mid-tier defenseman kind of night. With Erik Karlsson being the only real stud going that you want to pay up for and I don’t love his spot tonight. Get exposure to the Wild defenseman and look to pair a power play defenseman with any C-W stacks that you do. Tier 1 – Spurgeon, Suter, Ristolainen, E.Johnson, Giordano (*PP1 with Monahan/Gaudreau*) Tier 2 – Karlsson, Hamilton, Ekman-Larsson, Leddy GOALIES Clear cut there are two guys tonight who are heavy home favorites. That will be your chalk. Mike Smith (Calgary) … I expect Smith to be the highest owned in all formats tonight. The Sabres are bad but still can generate enough shots in this match-up to give Smith a nice save floor. Devan Dubnyk (Minnesota) … If anyone rolls a shutout tonight I think it would be Dubnyk, but the Wild should really dominate the Sens in this match-up so I worry about shot volume. Dubnyk is not starting tonight, Alex Stalock is in. Obviously I don’t like him as much as Dubnyk, but I do like the Wild to win still. Tournament Pivot Jaroslav Halak (Islanders) … I wouldn’t be shocked to see or hate the idea of pairing Halak with an Islanders stack. It’s a good tournament correlation and his salary discount gives you a huge savings over guys like Dubnyk tonight. LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Monahan-Gaudreau-Ferlund (Flames) ONE OFF STUD WINGER: Johnny Gaudreau (Flames) ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Drew Stafford (Devils) TOP DEFENSEMAN: Mark Giordano (Flames)
Jaguar Lou’s Main Slate Top Plays – 1/21/18
Jaguar Lou’s Cheat Sheet – 1/21/18 If you’re not max entering GPP tournaments, I strongly recommend only playing single entry and 3-5 person leagues. Point Guard Elite PG Play: No pay up options Mid-Range PG Play: Ish Smith & Darren Collison (GPP) GPP Value/Punt PG play: Jarret Jack & Tyler Ennis (Both Valuable) Shooting Guard Elite SG Play: Victor Oladipo Mid-Range SG Play: Jordan Clarkson GPP Value/Punt SG Play: Josh Hart Small Forward Elite SF Play: No pay up options Mid-Range SF Play: DeMarre Carroll GPP Value/Punt SF play: Lance Stephenson Power Forward Elite PF Play: LaMarcus Aldridge & Kristaps Porzingis *Both solid plays* Mid-Range PF Play: Rondae Hollis Jefferson & Tobias Harris PP Value/Punt PF Play: Larry Nance Jr. (GPP) Center Elite C Play: Andre Drummond Mid-Range C Play: Julius Randle GPP Value/Punt C Play: Pau Gasol
NFL Championship Weekend
Preview the AFC and NFC Championship Games for DFS this weekend.
Jaguar Lou’s Top Plays – 1/20/18
Jaguar Lou’s Top Picks for 1/20/2018 If you’re not max entering GPP tournaments, I strongly recommend only playing single entry and 3-5 person leagues. PG Eric Bledsoe – 7,000 FD & 7,600 DK With Giannis Antetokounmpo out for tonight’s game against the 76ers, usage/offensive production should simply shift to Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton. In a game that has the Bucks as underdogs by 7 points with a 213 over-under, Bledsoe and Middleton will be relied upon to carry the offense tonight. Normally I’d be nervous about the blowout without “The Greek Freak” but Bledsoe and Middleton have favorable matchups against whoever the 76ers throw at them, be it Covington, Simmons or McConnell. if you go the Bledsoe and Middleton route, I think it’s imperative to have Joel Embiid as well. Your hoping in this scenario the game stays close, that only happens if all three of these players I’ve mentioned perform well – and I do believe they all will hit value tonight at reasonable salaries. Other GPP PG Option(s): Dennis Schroder, Damian Lillard & Jerian Grant (GPP/Punt) SG Justin Holiday – 6,000 FD & 5,700 DK **All Day/Early** With Kris Dunn confirmed out for tonight’s game, Jerian Grant will be running the point for the Bulls. Although Grant has a slight chance of stealing the show (very slight), I believe the usage will go right to Justin Holiday. Zach LaVine is still easing his way back from a three-month hiatus which leaves Justin Holiday, a reliable fantasy player on the defensive and offensive side of the court. I don’t think Grant is very reliable tonight as I expect Dennis Schroder to keep him very busy. Holiday has been inconsistent as of late, but I believe with Dunn sidelined for tonight’s game against Atlanta, Justin Holiday has the best chance of reaching/exceed value at such a reasonable salary. Other GPP SG Option(s): Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson & Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (GPP) SF Robert Covington – 5,100 FD & 5,000 DK With Redick and Bayless out as well, I think this is the most stackable game of the night. Yes, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot could be a nice value play with the injuries but I think Covington is the one who benefits from these injuries the most. I’m expecting Covington to pick up the slack for a 76ers team who are slightly hobbled – Stacking 5-6 total players from this game could be very lucrative. Other Small Forward Option(s): Kevin Durant & Josh Richardson (If Tyler Johnson is out) PF John Henson – 5,200 FD & 4,600 DK As I’ve mentioned, Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for tonight’s game. John Henson is another Buck that should see an uptick in minutes, offensive usage, shot attempts etc. His price is low and if you’re hoping the game stays close I have no problem rostering all three Bucks in one lineup (the three being Bledsoe, Middleton and Henson). Other Power Forward Option(s): Anthony Davis C Joel Embiid – 10,500 FD & 10,400 DK Joel Embiid has too high of a ceiling to fade on FanDuel. With FanDuel changing their scoring rules this past year giving three points each for steals and blocks, players like Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis become extremely hard to fade. There is value on the slate tonight, rostering one/two elite players shouldn’t be hard to figure out. Other Center Option(s): Robin Lopez **Early/All Day** & Karl Anthony Towns
Scouting NHL DFS: Sat 1/20
Saturday, January 20th This write-up is covering the MAIN slate tonight at 7pm… Here’s a couple quick thoughts on the early 1pm/3pm games. Early — I love the Flyers early as a tournament stack. Couturier-Girioux-Ghost. The smart play in cash games is to get some exposure to MacKinnon and Rantanen for the Avs who are on a roll and at home versus a Rangers team who is giving up lots of production to opposing centers. Lehner is my goalie against the chalk option Lehtnonen. Both the Jets and Flames are coming off their BYE week but that game is the one to look at for one off options as it should have some scoring in it. MAIN SLATE STACKS Oilers … McDavid-Maroon-Draisaitl … I love Edmonton who is at home against Vancouver and the McDavid line is pretty much all their offensive production. Islanders .. Tavares-Bailey-Lee … New York vs Chicago is the game of the night for offense, the Isles arent even bothering anymore to play low scoring games and neither is Chicago. The goalies here are tournament options due to the pace and high shot volume, but both teams are two lines deep. Should be high scoring. Blackhawks … Schmaltz-Kane-Hartman … See above. Lightning … Point-Palat-Johnson … My sneaky bounce back team? Tampa. They’ve moved Namestnikov back up to the top line with Kuch and Stammer but the Point-Palat combination is a nice DFS play due to their price tonight. CENTERS Tier 1 – McDavid, Barzal, Bergeron, Toews Tier 2 – Point, Krejci, Stastny Brayden Point and Mathew Barzal are great options tonight to start your lineups with. Based on price and opportunity I like both to produce good returns. If you pay up, I would spend it on McDavid. WINGS Tier 1 – Marchand, Kane, Stone, Kucherov, Pastrnak, Tarasenko, Huberdeau Tier 2 – Kessel, Draisaitl, Granlund, Bailey, Hoffman, Boeser, Lee, Nylander Value – Keller, Heinen, Athanasiou, Sheary Getting exposure to either Patrick Kane or Vlad Tarasenko is a near must tonight in cash games. Both are at home where they should draw favorable matchups and I doubt either doesn’t score tonight. Consider Nylander or Athanasiou as one offs for value. DEFENSEMAN Tier 1 – Burns, Pietrangelo, Josi Tier 2 – Suter, Keith, Oesterle, McAvoy, Rielly Play Pietrangelo…. He is a lock for me tonight. GOALIES Cash – Rinne, Talbot, Allen GPP – Vasilevsky, FOrsberg, F.Andersen LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: McDavid-Draisaitl-Maroon (Oilers) ONE OFF STUD WINGER: Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay) ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Andreas Athanasiou (Detroit) TOP DEFENSEMAN: Alex Pietrangelo (St. Louis)
NBA Live at 5 with Willie Walls
Scouting the NBA 1/19/18
Plays of the Day Value: Jordan Clarkson struggled on Wednesday with Lonzo Ball out but now he could see a significant increase in run with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Achilles) also ruled out ahead of a plus matchup at home against Indiana. Fade: John Wall is coming off a rough shooting performance and is not the best high-priced option tonight against a Pistons team that defends the paint and begs opposing guards to shoot. Fade him and play more of a balanced lineup on this 7-game slate. Point Guards Goran Dragic – (7,500 DK/7,500 FD) Dion Waiters (ankle) and Tyler Johnson (ankle) are both expected to remain out tonight, making Dragic very reliable and increasing his upside as well. Since returning from injury on Dec. 23, he’s scored in double figures in 13 consecutive appearances while averaging 5.8 APG and 4.4 RPG during that span. Tonight the Heat face a Nets team that allows the fifth-most PPG (106.1) overall and the most 2PTM (63.5) per game this season, which bodes well for a guard in Dragic, who prefers to attack the rim more often than settling for jumpers. D’Angelo Russell (knee) is expected to return tonight for Brooklyn and he’s a poor defender who should be rusty after a long layoff. Jordan Clarkson – (5,200 DK/4,200 FD) Lonzo Ball (knee) is unlikely to play tonight, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Achilles) has been ruled out and Kyle Kuzma (finger) is questionable. Clarkson sees the greatest rise in usage (6.7%) to 35.2 percent of any Laker when those three players are off the floor this season. There is some concern that the Lakers won’t be competitive with three key players out, but they are at home and Clarkson should benefit from increased usage with two starting guards inactive. Potential Value Josh Hart – (4,600 DK/4,500 FD) Hart should also play an increased role with Ball and KCP out for the Lakers. Longshot Darren Collison – (5,600 DK/5,300 FD) Collison is a solid mid-tier play with more potential tonight since the Lakers PG defense diminishes when Ball is out. Shooting Guards Tyreke Evans – (8,800 DK/8,800 FD) Evans continues to dominate touches in the Grizzlies offense and he just went for 23 points and 10 assists against the Knicks Wednesday. He will become an even safer play if Marc Gasol (illness) or Andrew Harrison (ankle) is out tonight. Reke killed his former team with 26 points and 7 assists in a meeting with the Kings earlier this season, which is not surprising against a team that ranks 29th in defensive rating this year. Will Barton – (6,500 DK/7,700 FD) Barton was solid with 17 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists against the Clippers Tuesday and could keep rolling in a much better matchup tonight, especially if Jamal Murray (concussion) remains out. Phoenix ranks dead last in defensive rating and plays at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA, which plays right into Barton’s hands. He went for 17 points, six rebounds and six assists against the Clips and is rocking a 24.2 percent usage rate while averaging 1 FP per minute with Murray off the floor this season. Potential Value Bogdan Bogdanovic – (5,600 DK/6,200 FD) Bogdanovic has become the Kings most reliable scorer out of the backcourt. Longshot DeMar DeRozan – (8,300 DK/8,400 FD) DeRozan could have a huge game against the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard (quad) out indefinitely. Small Forwards Brandon Ingram – (6,100 DK/6,300 FD) Apparently Ingram could’ve returned from a mild ankle sprain to play in Wednesday’s blowout loss to the Thunder if it had not gotten so out of hand. So he should be good to go tonight against a Pacers team that’s far inferior defensively and shorthanded with Myles Turner (elbow) out and Lance Stephenson (illness) clearly diminished. Ingram’s going to have to carry a heavy load if Kyle Kuzma (finger) is out in addition to the Lakers starting backcourt of Lonzo Ball and KCP and there simply aren’t many other SFs on the board with upside tonight. Kelly Oubre Jr. – (4,500 DK/4,700 FD) If you want to afford one or both of those high-priced PFs tonight you’ll need to save at SF and Oubre Jr. offers a solid floor at a very reasonable price tag. He’s playing 29 MPG over his last six appearances despite coming off the bench and could continue to see increased run with Markieff Morris (ankle) clearly hobbled. The Pistons allow the tenth-most FPPG (42.03) to opposing SFs this season and could be without two good defenders in Avery Bradley (groin) and Stanley Johnson (hip) tonight. Potential Value Wilson Chandler – (4,300 DK/5,000 FD) Chandler has a good chance to meet value against a weak Suns defense tonight. Longshot Michael Beasley – (6,200 DK/5,600 FD) Beasley is capable of going off against any opponent and the Jazz has struggled to defend the perimeter this year. Power Forwards Kristaps Porzingis – (8,900 DK/9,400 FD) Rudy Gobert (knee) remains out and that leaves the Jazz quite vulnerable down low. Porzingis went for 22 points and eight rebounds in a meeting with Utah earlier this season and towers over natural PF Derrick Favors, giving him a decided advantage on jumpers against a Jazz team that ranks 29th in opponents 3PT shooting (.383%) this year. LaMarcus Aldridge – (8,600 DK/9,100 FD) An even safer play than Porzingis in the same price range, Aldridge is back to carrying the Spurs offense with Kawhi Leonard (quad) out indefinitely once again. He scored 59 points on 24-of-45 FG shooting over his last two appearances and will look to keep rolling on the road against a Raptors team that’s increased its pace of play and started giving up more FP production all around. His 36.3 percent usage rate when Kawhi, Pau Gasol and Rudy Gay (heel) are off the floor this season dwarfs that of any other Spur and Gasol could get some rest after playing 30 minutes in Brooklyn on Wednesday. Potential Value Skal
Jaguar Lou’s Cheat Sheet – 1/18/18
Jaguar Lou’s Cheat Sheet – 1/18/18 If you’re not max entering GPP tournaments, I strongly recommend only playing single entry and 3-5 person leagues. Point Guard Elite PG Play: Damian Lillard Mid-Range PG Play: Isaiah Thomas GPP Value/Punt PG play: Terry Rozier Shooting Guard Elite SG Play: Victor Oladipo Mid-Range SG Play: Evan Fournier GPP Value/Punt SG Play: Marcus Smart Small Forward Elite SF Play: Lebron James Mid-Range SF Play: Jaylen Brown GPP Value/Punt SF play: Luc Mbah a Moute Power Forward Elite PF Play: Aaron Gordon Mid-Range PF Play: Taj Gibson PP Value/Punt PF Play: Ryan Anderson Center Elite C Play: Joel Embiid Mid-Range C Play: Al Horford & Bismack Biyombo GPP Value/Punt C Play: Clint Capela
