Scouting The NBA – 2/27/18
Nate Weitzer scouts the NBA supplying his early morning picks
Scouting The NBA – 2/26/18
Nate Weitzer scouts the NBA supplying his early morning picks
Scouting NHL DFS: Sat 2/24
Saturday, February 24th I am completely focused on games that start at 7PM because I am at the DK Live Final. This means that the following games aren’t on my radar, so here’s my thoughts on them Isles @ Devils – This game was moved to 8pm because of a pre-game ceremony, and it was one that I was going to be all over. Hischier-Hall have been so consistent that you should really trust them on home ice against the worst defense in the league. For the Isles, try to get some top line exposure as I think we see a high scoring game here. Ducks @ Coyotes – On the main slates, I expect the Ducks to garner some ownership. Getzlaf-Rakell-Perry are in a great spot tonight. Oilers @ Kings – No love here for me. Koptiar will shutdown McDavid. Now, on with the fun games… STACKS Lightning … Point-Kucherov-Killorn Tampa 2 should be the popular chalk stack tonight. The Habs are starting Antti Niemi and also will be without third liner Tomas Plekanic as he is being held out due to a likely upcoming trade. Tampa’s in a great spot to shred the Habs poor defense. The Point-Kuch combination has been solid of late with Point doing the recent damage and because he’s a little under priced you can afford the full line. Don’t forget Stamkos as a one off. Capitals … Backstrom-Ovechkin-Wilson Is Ovi gonna score a goal? Probably. Will he get three? If so, I’m dead tonight. Because I don’t see the Caps shredding the Sabres and wouldnt be shocked to see this game go to OT 3-2. That said, if you want a single line to score a full strength goal. This is it. Stars … Seguin-Janmark-Klingberg Sneaky Stacks Columbus Blue Jackets – Dubois/Atkinson/Panarin Detroit Red Wings – Zetterberg/Nyqusti/Kronwall FAVORITE ONE OFFS / COMBOS Pierre-Luc Dubois & Cam Atkinson – CLB Brayden Piont & Nikita Kucherov – TB Nick Backstrom & Alex Ovechkin – WAS Sidney Crosby & Bryan Rust – PIT Henrik Zetterberg & Gustav Nyquist – DET David Krejci & Ryan Spooner – BOS TOP DEFENSEMAN John Klingberg – DAL Kris Letang – PIT Aaron Ekblad – FLA John Carlson – WAS Jeff Petry – MTL GOALIES Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa … Confirmed in goal tonight and a big favorite on the road against a bad Montreal team. Vas is my top guy tonight. Sergei Bobrovsky – Columbus …. The Blue Jackets are a sneaky good spot tonight at home versus Chicago who played last night and is playing 3rd in 4 nights tonight on the road. Columbus should win this easily and Bob is a nice pivot off Vas on DK. Philipp Grubauer – Washington … Grub’s is confirmed for the Caps in goal tonight. He rarely gets goal support but has been really good at home. On FanDuel he’s a great salary saver in goal tonight compared to the other guys. On DK though I can fade him — he shouldn’t see a ton of shots. LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Nico Hischier-Taylor Hall-Kyle Palmieri (New Jersey) … I was planning to play these guys coming into the live final and now they’re off the slate. So load em up on your main slates….. ONE OFF STUD WINGER: Alex Ovechkin (Washington) ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Tanner Pearson (Kings) TOP DEFENSEMAN: John Klingberg (Dallas)
Scouting NHL DFS: Fri 2/23
Friday, February 23rd 5pm Update – So much for fading the Wild and using Lundqvist. He’s OUT tonight. So, yeah. Get some Wild in and obviously dont roll with King Henry upset. STACKS Outside of the Knights who are going to be everyone’s top stack tonight, I don’t have a team that I feel is a must to stack. Consider going 2-man combo’s or even just nothing but one offs…. Golden Knights … Karlsson – Marchessault – Schmidt There’s not a bigger miss-match tonight than Vancouver going into Vegas to take on the Knights who have the leagues best PP% over the last three weeks and Vancouver is hovering around 25th in the league over the same span for their PK. The Knights top line is easily the top line to pay up for tonight and pairing them even with Nate Schmidt on defense is something to strongly consider today. James Neal skated in morning skate with the top line, so a Karlsson-Marchessault-Neal combination seems to be back in action today. Vegas’ second line this morning was Haula-R.Smith-Perron, so Tuch is back down on the third line. St. Louis Blues … Stastny – Tarasenko – Steen The other team I really would look to for upside tonight is the Blues. They had a sloppy game in their first game back after a 4 day layoff on Tuesday and will be facing Winnipeg who is coming off an insane TEN game homestand. The Jets are not the same threat on the road as they are at home but on paper I think many will shy away from the Blues because they have lost four in a row. This is the perfect spot to jump on them today and the Tarasenko line would be my pick. However, if you do have Vegas 1 exposure, you’ll likely have to consider cheaper options and Alex Steen would be the one off value play from the Blues. COMBO’S & ONE OFFS Based on the style of this slate I am finding that I want to build my main lineup tonight with only 1 core stack and then a bunch of one off’s off of that. So Here’s the top one off’s I like at each position tonight in different price ranges. Here’s the guys outside of the stacks mentioned above …. CENTER Geno Malkin (PIT) … Malkin today, Crosby tomorrow, book it. Erk Haula (VGK) Bo Horvat (VAN) Artem Anisimov (CHI) WINGS Sebastian Aho (CAR) Phil Kessel (PIT) … Been a decent week for the Kessel hockey players. Brock Boeser (VAN) Brandon Saad (CHI) Mikael Granlund (MIN) Pavel Buchnevich (NYR) TOP DEFENSEMAN Marc Edouard Vlasic (SJ) … Screw Burnsy Alex Pietrangelo (STL) Nate Schmidt (VGK) Jared Spurgeon (MIN) Colton Parayko (STL) Kris Letang (PIT) Jordan Oesterle (CHI) GOALIES Marc-Andre Fleury (Projected) … Safest bet to win tonight. I doubt he see’s a ton of shots and he’s expensive which makes picking him less than ideal for your roster construction, however the Knights at home versus Vancouver is about as safe of a lock as they come today (which makes Vegas your chalk fade if you like to fade chalk) Jake Allen (Confirmed) … I like the Blues and would only play Allen with a Blues forward stack tonight to ensure the win. Henrik Lundqvist (Confirmed) … Upset special of the night. King Henry has been terrible of late as have the Rangers as a whole, but with the Wild coming in on a B2B on the road I like the Rangers to pull the upset tonight. And we KNOW that he will see a ton of shots. LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Karlsson – Marchessault – Neal (Vegas) … March gets the first goal ONE OFF STUD WINGER: Sebastian Aho (Carolina) ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Pavel Buchnevich (Rangers) TOP DEFENSEMAN: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (Sharks) … I dont wanna pay up at D today.
Scouting NHL DFS: Thu 2/22
Prepare for an 11 game slate in the NHL with Steve Renner’s breakdown.
NASCAR XFINITY Atlanta Preview
NASCAR XFINITY DFS: Rinnai 250 DraftKings Preview The XFINITY Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend for the Rinnai 250, and it still feels good to be talking about NASCAR DFS and the XFINITY Series in the same sentence. It also feels good to get to some real racing at one of the best 1.5-mile ovals on the schedule after a wreck-filled opener at Daytona. Saturday’s race is also a companion even with the Cup Series, so that means there is going to be a few Cup regulars in the field. When setting your lineup at DraftKings, these Cup stars are the overwhelming favorites to win the dominator categories, and even though there are only 163 laps on tap, you still need to anchor your lineup with a couple of studs. Filling out the rest of your lineup will be the tricky part. There is usually a huge gap between the drivers from the top teams and everyone else, so quality sleepers are few and far between. Depending on how qualifying plays out, I may be tempted to punt a roster spot, especially if a quality driver ends up with a bunch of upside through place differential. Qualifying will be Saturday morning before the race, so make sure to check back for updated picks after the starting lineup is set. In the meantime, here is a closer look at the drivers I’ll be targeting ahead of Saturday’s Rinnai 250 at Atlanta. Must-Own Drivers Kevin Harvick Harvick led the most laps in this race last year and finished fourth, and he was a force whenever he raced in the XFINITY Series. He finished sixth or better in all six of his starts, and he led 50-plus laps in three of his four starts at intermediate ovals. Harvick has top-scorer potential written all over him. Joey Logano He is a threat to win whenever he races in the XFINITY Series, and in three starts at 1.5-mile tracks last year, he led 126 laps and picked up a win. Overall, he logged nine Top 10s and led 276 laps in 10 XFINITY starts, and Logano is in prime position to pile up dominator points in this one. Contrarian Dominators Christopher Bell Bell might be a rookie, but he is also one of the favorites for the championship. He made a few spot starts in the XFINITY Series last year, and in four starts at 1.5-mile tracks, he logged three Top 10s and picked up a win at Kansas. Bell has the talent and equipment to lead laps and contend for wins, even with a couple of Cup stars in the field. Cole Custer As a rookie last season, no driver scored more points at the 1.5-mile tracks last year than Custer. He finished in the Top 10 in eight of the 11 races while compiling a 7.9 average finish. More importantly, he had a dominating victory in the season finale at Homestead, leading 182 of the 200 laps. Even in a stacked field, Custer could provide some dominator points. Difference Makers Elliott Sadler He doesn’t have a lot of dominator upside, but Sadler can be a strong No. 3 driver in a DFS lineup because of his consistency. He has back-to-back Top 10s at Atlanta, and last year, he led all drivers with nine Top 10s in the 11 races at 1.5-mile ovals. With a short list of drivers who could realistically lead laps this weekend, the 30-plus points Sadler is likely to provide from his finishing position become a lot more valuable. Tyler Reddick Reddick is coming off a win at Daytona, but he is more than just a guy who got lucky at a plate track. In part-time duty last year, he cracked the Top 10 in five of his six starts at 1.5-mile tracks, closing the year with a win at Kentucky, a second-place finish at Kansas and a fourth-place finish at Homestead. Reddick is a dark horse to be the top series regular in Saturday’s race. Matt Tifft Although his 2017 season with Joe Gibbs Racing didn’t quite live up to expectations, Tifft found a bit of rhythm at the 1.5-mile tracks late in the year, reeling off six straight Top 10s. Tifft is no longer with JGR, but he still has quality equipment after joining Richard Childress Racing in the offseason. If he starts outside the Top 10, he could make a nice addition to the bottom of my lineup. Chase Briscoe He will be making his XFINITY Series debut this weekend, but Briscoe had an impressive season in the Truck Series last year, looking like the best driver in the series for stretches. He’ll drive for Roush Fenway Racing this weekend, so he has strong equipment, and I think he has Top 10 potential. If he has a little upside through place differential, I won’t hesitate to roster him. Kyle Benjamin While he doesn’t have a lot of experience, Benjamin has shown elite speed in the opportunities he has had, and he is driving for Joe Gibbs Racing. He made five XFINITY starts last year, finishing as high as second and leading 28 laps at Pocono and 52 at Kentucky. Benjamin is likely a boom-or-bust option, but he has the upside that could help you take down a big GPP. Sleeper Special Spencer Gallagher He won’t be fighting for wins or the series title this year, but Gallagher was sneaky effective at the 1.5-mile tracks last year. He compiled a 20.5 average, and he cracked the Top 15 five times. He could deliver 20-plus points on finishing position alone, and his value will only rise if he has some place differential potential after qualifying. Big Name to Fade Ty Dillon Dillon might be a Cup regular, but he doesn’t dominate when he dabbles in
Scouting NHL DFS: Tue 2/20
With one of the biggest slates of the year for NHL DFS, DK Live Finalist Steve Renner takes a look at the top stacks and plays for Tuesday’s slate.
Scouting NHL DFS: Sun, 2/18
Sunday, February 18th This write-up focuses on the 5 games starting at 5pm or later — which is the DK main slate. I will be doing another write-up that breaks down my DK Live Final Winning lineup from last night, likely doing that later today, so look for that tonight or sometime tomorrow morning…. STACKS Winnipeg Jets … Scheifele-Wheeler-Connor / Laine-Ehlers-Byfuglien Lots to love here with Winnipeg. First off, they’re home where they are one of the more dominant teams in the league. Second, they’re getting Florida on a road B2B and their 4th straight road game. Florida is playing in a ton of high scoring games lately and I think we see a let down from them tonight. Winnipeg should dominate here and I think you can legit consider both top lines for the Jets as well as Dustin Byfuglien on defense and Connor Hellebuyck in goal. Dallas Stars … Seguin-Radulov-Klingberg If you dont trust the Jets or you go with the cheaper Jets (Ehlers/Copp/Laine) then pivot over to Dallas top line. There’s a bunch of higher totals out there which will make the Stars top guys contrarian today, but I think they’re gonna have no issues putting pressure on the Sharks who continue to shuffle their defensive pairings around. VALUE STACK Winnipeg Second Line … Copp-Laine-Ehlers … Go here instead of the top line to save a little $ OTHERS Toronto … Matthews-Nylander-Hyman Columbus … Wennberg-Foligno-Bjorkstrand COMBO PLAYS Mark Scheifele & Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg) Auston Matthews & Willie Nylander (Toronto) Tyler Seguin & Alex Radulov (Dallas) Joe Pavelski & Timo Meier (Sharks) ONE OFFS Carolina – Sebastian Aho Columbus – Cam Atkinson & Josh ANderson Detroit – Anthony Mantha Dallas – Alex Radulov VALUE PLAYS Justin Williams (Carolina) Nick Foligno (Columbus) Timo Meier (San Jose) TOP DEFENSEMAN Brent Burns (Sharks) … Pivot to Vlasic to save a ton of $$ and I like him as well. Dustin Byfuglien (Winnipeg) … I have been saying for quite some time… Defenseman versus Florida. Feels like that works out well. Seth Jones (Columbus) Keith Yandle (Florida) Justin Faulk (Carolina) GOALIES Cam Ward (Unconfirmed) … The Devils have been great to me all year but this is their 3rd game in 4 nights and second on a B2B. I like the Hurricanes to win and Ward provides a nice value play. Connor Hellebuyck (Confirmed) … Should see a ton of shots and Jets skaters will give him plenty of goal support today. Ben Bishop (Unconfirmed) … Good DK play today to pair with a Stars stack. LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Scheifele – Wheeler – Connor (Jets) ONE OFF STUD WINGER: Sebastian Aho (Hurricanes) ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Tim Meier (Sharks) TOP DEFENSEMAN: Dustin Byfuglien (Jets)
NASCAR Daytona 500 DraftKings Plays
DFS NASCAR: Daytona 500 DraftKings Lineup Tips The Can-Am Duel qualifying races are in the books, and the starting lineup for the 2018 Daytona 500 is officially set. Young guns Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott picked up wins in the qualifying races, locking them into Row 2 behind pole winner Alex Bowman and Denny Hamlin. Starting position is crucial for determining a driver’s DFS value at any track, but most of the time, building a winning DFS NASCAR lineup means targeting a couple drivers starting up front and focusing on the laps led and fastest laps run categories. You can throw that strategy out the window this weekend, and at any restrictor-plate race for that matter. With the field bunched together in a giant pack, the fastest laps run category is effectively useless. Even the laps led category is greatly devalued. More importantly, the likelihood of a driver wrecking is so much higher at a plate track that a strong starting spot becomes a liability because of all the potential points to lose in the place differential category. On the flip side, drivers starting in the back actually have tons of potential because they have a bunch of differential points to gain. History says that stacking your lineup with drivers starting way in the back, even drivers from smaller teams that you would never consider at a typical oval, is the recipe for success. In last year’s Daytona 500, only one driver who started in the Top 10 finished in the Top 10, and only two Top 10 qualifiers finished in the Top 15. Meanwhile, six drivers who started 25th or worse ended up in the Top 10, including four who started 30th or worse. Yes, I’ll probably have a few lineups where I pick a driver starting up front. In these cases, I’ll be targeting drivers who have shown speed throughout the week and could end up leading 50-plus laps and winning the race. However, most of my lineups will be loaded with drivers starting outside the Top 25. The place differential category is the safest and most effective source of points this weekend. Build your lineups accordingly. Must-Own Drivers Brad Keselowski ($10,400) He cost a lot of people money when he crashed out of his qualifying race, but on the plus side, he is now in position to help you make a lot of money in the Daytona 500. Keselowski has been the most dominant driver at plate tracks, winning three of the last seven and leading 30-plus laps five times in that span. Starting 31st, Keselowski should exploit the place differential category to the fullest while potentially leading some laps. He’ll have a golden opportunity to be the top scorer Sunday. Kyle Larson ($9,300) It has been a rough start to Speedweeks for Larson, but don’t abandon him just yet. He’ll be starting way back in 38th, so among the drivers with a legitimate shot to win Sunday, he has the most upside through place differential. Larson has also been solid at the plate tracks recently, notching five Top 15s in his last six starts. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being the top scorer at DraftKings this weekend. Jimmie Johnson ($9,100) Johnson has been more bust than boom at the plate tracks recently, and he’s already wrecked two cars during Speedweeks and will have to start 35th. However, he also owns five wins at restrictor-plate tracks, including two in the Daytona 500. There aren’t many guys who have a legitimate chance of winning Sunday who also have a chance to earn 30-plus points through place differential. Aric Almirola ($7,700) He was the victim of Jimmie Johnson’s spin during the first qualifying race, but as far as I’m concerned, Almirola’s misfortune Thursday just makes him a no-brainer play Sunday. He’ll start 37th, but he has four straight Top 10s at plate tracks and owns a Daytona win. Almirola offers tons of potential for a great price. GPP Difference Makers Chase Elliott ($10,200) I won’t even consider most drivers starting up front, but Elliott is on the short list of guys I’d make an exception for this weekend. He clearly has one of the strongest cars, leading 17 laps in the Clash and winning his qualifying race. It’s also easy to forget that he was battling for the lead in last year’s Daytona 500 in the closing laps. It’s a risky play for sure, but if Elliott ends up leading the most laps and winning the race, the risk will be well worth it. I’ll have him in at least one of my lineups. Joey Logano ($9,600) The other driver starting in the Top 10 that I’ll probably have some exposure to is Logano. He has three plate wins under his belt, and he has six finishes of sixth or better in the last 10 plate races, leading double-digit laps in four of the last five. He’s also been strong throughout Speedweeks, finishing second in the Clash and in his qualifying race. Team Penske has looked strong as a whole, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Logano ends up leading the most laps and winning the race Sunday. Jamie McMurray ($8,000) If you are looking to go against the grain with a pick or two but don’t want to risk using drivers starting in the Top 10, McMurray is an interesting alternative. He starts 19th, and the mid-pack starting spot could help him fly under the radar a bit while still giving him some upside in the differential category. McMurray is also a four-time winner at plate tracks, so he always has a chance to make some serious noise at Daytona. William Byron ($7,300) The rookie’s introduction to plate racing at the Cup level didn’t go well, and Byron ended up spinning in his qualifying race after Ricky Stenhouse Jr. got him
Scouting NHL DFS: Sat 2/17
Saturday, February 17th Seven game main slate tonight. STACKS Tampa Bay Lightning … Stamkos-Kucherov-Namestnikov Expect this to be the chalk tonight. The Devils are starting Eddie Lack in goal on the road and Tampa is really hot right now. For high entry field tournaments I would pivot over to Point-Gourde-Johnson to get cheaper Tampa exposure with equal the upside. Boston Bruins … Bergeron-Marchand-Pastrnak/Krug The Bruins are back in action tonight and head out to Vancouver to face the Canucks who are doing a decent job actually of limiting opponents shot attempts but they’re facing a better team in the Bruins tonight who are coming in fresh and healthy with the top line fully in-tact. This is an expensive group but I fully expect them to produce tonight. Look to mix in Torey Krug instead of Pastrnak to change things up. New Jersey Devils … Hischier-Hall-Palmieri I broke down how the last time these guys met it was a 5-4 game on my podcast and I expect another high scoring affair this evening. Stamkos and Kucherov will draw tons of ownership on the Lightning side and rightfully so because Stammer has 17 goals and 29 points in 29 career games versus the Devils. But Taylor Hall is on fire with points in 9 straight games and with Hischier playing better of late these guys are a good contrarian pivot in this game. Florida Panthers … Barkov-Dadanov-Bjugstad Calgary Flames … Monahan-Gaudreau-Hamilton (I don’t mind the Calgary second line tonight either but this group should avoid Barkov). Washington Capitals … Backstrom-Ovechkin-Carlson TOP COMBO’S Lots of good options out there tonight, this is honestly where I start my lineup build process by locking in the combo’s that I really like and then determining if I want to make it a 3 or 4 player stack based on salary and match-ups. I have these guys ranked based upon their multi-goal upside. Steven Stamkos & Nikita Kucherov (Tampa) Sean Monahan & Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary) Sasha Barkov & Evgenii Dadanov (Florida) Willie Karlsson & Jonathan Marchessault (Vegas) … Vegas should dominate this game but I hate the 4PM local start in Vegas… Expecting a 3-1 type final. Auston Matthews & Willie Nylander (Toronto) Ryan Johansen & Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville) Nick Backstrom & Alex Ovechkin (Washington) … At some point the Blackhawks will start to play for pride. That some point isn’t for another week or two. Cheaper / Value Nico Hischier & Taylor Hall (New Jersey) Mikael Backlund & Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary) Bo Horvat & Brock Boesser (Vancouver) Brayden Point & Yanni Gourde (Tampa) Dylan Larkin & Tomas Tatar (Detroit) Lars Eller & Andre Burakovsky (Washington) ONE OFF VALUE WINGERS Connor Sheary & Zach Aston-Reese (PIT) … I am fading the Pens tonight but these guys are going to be a popular play today because they’re skating with Crosby Tomas Tatar (DET) Zach Hyman (TOR) Jake DeBrusk (BOS) Nick Bjugstad/Denis Malgin/Jamie McGinn (FLA) Michael Ferland/Michael Frolik (CGY) DEFENSEMAN Dougie Hamilton (CGY) P.K. Subban (NSH) Aaron Ekblad (FLA) Torey Krug (BOS) John Carlson (WAS) Victor Hedman (TB) VALUE / PUNT DEFENSEMAN Nate Schmidt (VGK – Monitor Shea Theodore status, Schmidt gets a boost with Shea out) Sami Vatanen (NJ) Dmitry Orlov (WAS) GOALIES Marc-Andre Fleury (Vegas) … If he faces more than 25 shots then consider that a win. He should win this game easily, but the upside is limited. Monteral isnt scoring because they cannot control the puck and thus they cannot shoot. It’s kind of hard to score if you cant shoot and they’re doing neither on the road these days. Fleury is a pretty safe bet for the win tonight, but doesn’t possess a ton of upside unless he can get the shutout bonus which is never something to chase. Juuse Saros (Nashville) … YES! It looks like Saros will draw the start over Rinne. So I don’t need to worry about a Rinne hedge stack lineup. I mentioned on my podcast how Detroit has done pretty well versus Nashville in recent matchups but on paper this looks like a total Predator domination tonight. Monitor his starting status — Nashville typically is known for not indicating their goalie until pre-game warm-ups. Goalies to consider in stacks — These are guys I would pair with skaters only tonight to play strictly for the win and higher save volume Frederik Andersen (Toronto) Braden Holtby (Washington) — Too expensive on FD. DK only. Roberto Luongo (Florida) — I don’t like that he is making his first start back tonight but he’s cheap and makes a nice correlation play with the Florida stacks. LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak (Boston) ONE OFF STUD WINGER: Taylor Hall (Devils) ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Tomas Tatar (Red Wings) TOP DEFENSE-MAN: Dougie Hamilton (Calgary) & PK Subban (Nashville)
