Dongers Club – Friday June 29th
INTRODUCTION Today is a 14 game main slate with lots of extreme heat heading into the 4th of July week. I suspect we see a boost in casual lineups around DFS over the next week or so but I also suspect we see some crazy shit in games everywhere. I want to first look back at last night though and draw something from it. We had four games on the slate, of which each kind of fell into a tier of its own with one at the top as a high chalk game simply because of a Vegas Run Total despite folks not being able to have a brain for their own and consider how the game could play out, another game in a tiny hitters park with mediocre pitchers (Brewers/Reds) and two other games with elite strikeout pitchers going against teams who are ice cold one of which was in a pitchers park. I highlight this because on a 14 game slate, we want to filter out the games based upon these tiers and then pick 1 game from each type of tier and use that to construct a lineup. Find the game that is drawing heavy chalk and then turn your brain on and make a decision on the game. I faded the Red Sox entirely last night and it didn’t burn me one bit. Folks continue to use the Vegas totals too much to make a decision on a game and if you turn that data off you’ll find that you should have a better success rate on picking the right teams. Lets look for teams in good matchups and good ballparks who are hot and are coming in with a good flow to the matchup. GAMES I CARE NOT FOR As of this morning when I am drinking my coffee and playing my normal approach I am going into no tournament with more than ~500 people in it tonight. It’s a 3-entry max tournament and thus I don’t need to worry about some 6-9 stack for a team in a pitchers ballpark who might go off against a terrible bullpen. I don’t need to hole out from the rough 250 yards out on my second shot on a par 5 to win my tournament — but I do need to make sure that I manage to get within range to get up and down in 2 to make par at worst here all the while giving myself a chance to hit that magical shot that drops right next to the hole for a double eagle on a par 5 which is far more impressive than a hole in 1. oh, right, right. you came here for Baseball talk. Yes, so these games are spots that on a 14 game slate, I am taking out the sharpie and just drawing a big X over them, I care not for them at all. These games dont matter tonight for hitting choices. Mets vs Marlins Astros vs Rays Rockies vs Dodgers Pirates vs Padres Now I am down to 20 teams left, lets cross of teams I just don’t wanna bother with Royals vs Mariners … Seattle is coming back after a long road trip and also played yesterday in Baltimore. They are a quieter offense at home and this is a good park for Ian Kennedy. Royals are sneaky/pesky but not even I can justify them on a main lineup tonight on a 14 game slate…. Cross em off then. Red Sox vs Yankees … I rarely deal with these jokers when they’re playing on a 14 game slate like this and as much as I wanna slap the piss out of E-Rod in 90 degree temps in Yankee Stadium, I will pass on a Yankee lineup without Sanchez and with a bunch of mediocre hitters (suck it)…. Side note, both teams struggled in their game before this series and it’s a lock that they lose their first game AFTER they play each other. Sweet, now we have eliminated 6 games and are down to 16 teams left, lets remove some of the teams that are in lopsided games in my mind. Oakland … They suck at home and are facing Bauer Detroit … I only use the Tigers against lefties I have now successfully narrowed my slate down to a 7 game slate. Pause right there. I just quickly turned a “massive” slate that some people struggle with down to a 7 game Monday or Thursday slate that many seem to love and do better on. All it took was me scrolling through the games and looking at who was playing where, who was pitching and what the weather was and knowing how teams were coming in (or going out at the end of the series). The 14-15 game slates are normally only on Tuesday’s and Friday’s which will usually have most of the games starting new series. You need to look at the teams and decide is this going to be a high scoring series or a low scoring series and start there. Every decision we make in DFS is going to be right or wrong, have some balls and make a choice and the best way to deal with a big slate is to remove the dead games….. “This guy here is dead” ………….. Now I have gotten down to 14 teams left that I might dig into, lets first look at these donkey run totals to see if there is any bad chalk to go against. Quick glance the Rangers, Angels, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Yankees, Brewers are going to be teams that optimizers and folks who really have no clue how to analyze Baseball will look at and think I should get players from these teams. My personal take here is that there’s plenty of teams on a big slate that we really don’t gotta worry about ownership. To me ownership only matters if you are rostering a bad
Fuego Steve’s MLB Plays of the Day
Fuego Steve’s MLB Plays of the Day Pitchers So, we have an interesting little four game slate tonight on both main sites. I see two different way to attack the slate. We can pay up for pitching, even both on DraftKings and fill out our lineup with lower priced bats. Or we can take a chance with one or two of these lower priced options and get some big bats in our lineup. I am leaning the latter, though makes me nervous. Aaron Nola pitched ok versus the Nationals last time out but still only had 37 Fanduel points and 18 DK points. He is $12,100 on DK and I really have no interest at that price. He is $9700 on Fanduel, $700 less than Lance McCullers. Reverse that on DK where Nola is $1000 more. If you want to pitch a high-priced pitcher I would go with McCullers versus Tampa Bay. That is my debate now, whether to roster him or go lower. The way pricing is though, it is still tough to get him in with more than one high priced bat, even on Fanduel. The second option is to take a chance on these pitchers and stack the Red Sox or get Trout and Betts in your lineup if you choose. Junior Guerra is my first choice of the other starting pitchers tonight. I don’t love any of them, but he has been the most consistent. I think he has some of the highest strikeout upside on the slate as well. After that it gets dicey. You have Tanner Roark who usually does well enough. Not huge ceiling but can pitch well. Problem is he only went four innings against the Phillies last time out. He should bounce back with a better game tonight. My risky choice is Anthony DeSclafani of the Reds versus the Brewers. This is more of an SP2 option on DK. If he can just keep the ball in the ballpark or give up only solo shots, he has a chance for 18-20 DK points which I would take. Ryne Stanek is your longshot pitcher of the night making his first start versus the Astros. He is only $4000 on DraftKings which is tempting. Favorite Stacks Boston Red Sox versus L.A. Angels – Vegas likes this to easily be the highest scoring game of the night and I agree. Will be chalky, but to get the bats will need to pay down for pitcher so maybe that lowers ownership. Position plays of the day Catcher – Tucker Barnhart, Evan Gattis, Christian Vasquez – value 1st Base – Mitch Moreland, Albert Pujols, Eric Thames, Brad Miller – value 2nd Base – Ian Kinsler, Jose Altuve, Cesar Hernandez, Brock Holt – value 3rd Base – Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, Maikel Franco – value SS – Xander Bogarts, Jose Peraza, Andrelton Simmons, David Fletcher – value Outfield – Justin Upton and all Angels, Chris Young is value, J.D. and all Red Sox, Christian Yelich, Odubel Herrera, Jesse Winker (value), Bryce Harper As usual hit me in Slack chat an hour before lock with lineup questions and updated weather
Dongers Club – Thursday June 28th (Early)
INTRODUCTION FanDuel is running a promotion today for their single game contests. Basically if you enter as many lineups as you want into the single game contests they’ll pull your highest scores and combine them into some leaderboard thing that could pay out a little bit of pocket change. Hey, if you are bored today then roll with it. I will give them full credit though for putting together a good ‘Early’ only slate which is rare for them. It includes every game and has some decent contests included in it. DraftKings be like … yeah, whatever, we’re forcing folks to play single game for the early game and only including 5 games in our slate…. WEATHER It’s fine. PITCHING FANDUEL Trevor Richards & Zack Greinke … It is dueling no hitters day in SouthBeach as we have the 4th game of a set between the Diamondbacks and Marlins. By now you should know my SouthBeach Theory which is visiting teams (especially ones who wear all white to celebrate Miami Vice on their annual trip to Miami — yeah the D’Backs) who only visit Miami once per year going out to SouthBeach … umm … “establishments” on their final night in town and then being really sluggish the next night. Well, as you saw last night we had an early south beach theory with this being a 4th game of the set and the D’Backs were cold offensively. Arizona got no hit last year in their final game in Miami and I circled this game as a 1-0 game at the start of the series so no reason to turn back now. Sadly, it’s not on DK because it would be a great gamestack SP game. For FanDuel purposes expect Greinke to be chalk and Richards to be a nice pivot. Also, if you are worried about Greinke being a party boy, dont be, that’s not exactly his personality. David Peralta on the other hand …………………….. DRAFTKINGS Jake Odorizzi … Holy hell pitching is a landmine on this early DK slate today. I’m basically looking for the guy who I think will go 5 innings and not get into massive trouble and that lands me on Jake ‘Eggs’ Odorizzi against the White Sox. Be sure to thank me later when he shits the bed. Jon Gray …. I’ll be honest, I am not using him on FD because I think it’s a bit of a trap game, butI trust him more than Stratton here on DK. Michael Fulmer … Well, I wanna be clear here that I don’t love the umpire he has and I think this is a spot he finally gets roughed up. But there’s really a lack of solid pitching choices in my mind and if anyone is gonna pull a rabbit out of their hat Chase Anderson style it’s Fulmer who is a bulldog and should manage to stay in the game even if he gets into some trouble spots. FADE Clayton Kershaw … I don’t play guys who only pitch 90 pitches and are the most expensive pitchers on the slate. STACKS DETROIT … This game is going back to the moon today. 80+ degree temps, a struggling Manaea and a wild umpire sets up this to be a good spot for the Tigers who hit lefties well. Goodrum, Candelario, Castellanos and ………… James F’n McCann on a Thursday Day Game at home versus a lefty! BALTIMORE …. Mike Leake is coming off a dominant performance. He sucks. Manny needs to get traded and has been told to shape the fuck up so they can deal him, he’s going on a tear. CHALK YOU CAN FADE IF YOU HAVE BALLS Seattle Mariners … They get to face JIMMY! … Here’s a list of the great Jimmy’s in American History So is Yacabonis be the next guy added to that list? I’ve had some success profiling teams based on how they do in certain spots and Seattle is playing the last game of a series and the last game of this long road trip as they head back home after this game. All signs here point to the Mariners coming out and putting up a goose egg against a spot starter 26 year old “kid” who in his limited time with the big league club has posted a massive ERA and has walked twice as many batters as he has struck out ….. So yeah, uhhh, the mariners might flop today…. yeah uhm, no. POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN CATCHERS James McCann Mitchell C. Garver III Willllllsssssoooooon Contreras FIRST BASE Matt Olson … Next question Anthony Rizzo Ian Desmond SECOND BASE Dee Gordon Yoan Moncada Day Game DJ LeMahieu THIRD BASE Jemeir Candelario Eduardo Escobar Justin Turner Kyle Seager SHORTSTOP Jean Segura … I don’t see him leaving Camden without a homer. Manny Machado … I don’t see him having an 0-fer day OUTFIELD – Tier 1 Krush ‘Kriss Kross’ Davis … Day game KD after a couple nights of chalk duds…. Nicky Castellanos Charlie Blackmon … It’s time to pass the ‘Stud NL hitter who is cold and needs a hot streak’ baton over to Chuck Nasty. Mitch Haniger OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Matt Kemp Adam Jones Eddie Rosario Nikko Goodrum OUTFIELD – Tier 3 Dustin Fowler Colby Rasmus Avisail Garcia Gorkys Hernandez DONGERS CLUB Khrush Davis – OF – Chairman Nick Castellanos – OF Matt Olson – 1B James McCann – C Jean Segura – SS Yoan Moncada – 2B Charlie Blackmon – OF Justin Turner – 3B BONUS ……………….. Manny Machado – SS
Fuego Steve’s MLB Plays of the Day – 6/27
Fuego Steve’s MLB Plays of the Day Pitchers – Best options With 11 games on the slate, you would think there would be at least one stud pitcher. Yet there is no pitcher over $10k on Fanduel and only two on DraftKings, who I don’t really consider studs now in Robbie Ray and Madison Bumgarner. Ray is coming off the DL and apparently a little earlier than expected. I don’t see him pitching too deep in to the game. Though it is the Marlins so he could be ok. But I don’t want to pay the extra price. MadBum definitely has upside, but not sure it’s worth the price tonight either. It’s one of those nights for pitchers. Lots of ok options, nothing great or standing out. Kyle Freeland, Ivan Nova, and Jack Flaherty are my favorite options. I don’t mind Kyle Gibson either as he has pitched well over the past month. Favorite Stacks Boston Red Sox – Righties, though Benny and Moreland are fine as part of a stack Seattle Mariners – Prefer the lefties, but I like this game to be high scoring Baltimore Orioles – 1-6 in the lineup St. Louis Cardinals – Prefer top of order Oakland A’s – I should just leave them in my Favorite Stacks permanently Position plays of the day Catcher – J.R. Murphy, John Hicks, Yadier Molina, Sandy Leon – value 1st Base – Matt Olson, Jose Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Santana, Joe Mauer – value 2nd Base – Dee Gordon, Yoan Moncada, Brian Dozier, Jonathan Schoop – value 3rd Base – Matt Carpenter, Jed Lowrie, Kyle Seager, Luis Valbuena – value SS – Manny Machado, Xander Bogarts, Tim Anderson, Ehire Adrianza – value Outfield – Mark Trumbo, J.D. Martinez, Manuel Margot, Matt Joyce, Dustin Fowler, Joc Pederson, Mookie, Adam Jones, Hunter Renfroe, Leonys Martin Lots of outfielders under $3k on Fanduel as usual, including half the ones I listed. As usual hit me in Slack chat an hour before lock with lineup questions and updated weather information.
PGA DFS Picks – Quicken Loans National Picks
Whats up ScoutArmy — it’s a quiet PGA DFS week but its a special tournament to me as the PGA is at the TPC Avenel this week in Potomac, MD. Prior to them re-doing the course I used to caddy there back in high school for the pro-am when it was the Kemper Open. And the pro the last year I did it won the tournament — Justin Leonard — so he always has a special place in my heart. Anyways, here’s some of the picks I have for this week’s field which is not that top heavy. CORE PICKS Rickie Fowler … Rickie is reportedly only here to honor a sponsorship commitment, but I still think he will play well and I prefer him over Woods in the higher priced tier this week. Jamie Lovemark … Has been consistent of late and will be a popular/chalk play this week. He’s a core chalk play for me this week. Beyong Hun-An … Beyonce as I call him is someone who feels like a boom or bust play, but I’ll have plenty of him/her this week. Vegas odds are good considering the DK price this week. OTHERS TO CONSIDER 10k+: Mac Leishaman, Kyle Stanley 8k – 10k: Kevin Streelman, Beau Hossler, Chesson Hadley < 8k: Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim, Sung Kang, Brian Gay, Jason Kokrak LONGSHOT WINNER PREDICTION Bill Haas … This is not a long course and Haas should play well here this week. In recent years this tournament always being after the US Open and before “The Open” it typically has drawn off the top tier winners and Haas is my guy in that spot this week.
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 6/27
Weather and Park Factors Mariners at Orioles – Rain in the forecast, this one we’ll have to monitor. Yankees at Phillies – Overcast and humid with a slight chance of rain. Pirates at Mets – Humid. Athletics at Tigers – Hot and humid. Indians at Cardinals – Very hot and humid. I’ll touch briefly on the early three-game slate for today before getting to the main slate for tonight. Early Pitchers Sean Newcomb (ATL) Although the strikeouts weren’t there in his last start (three), he did last seven innings against the Orioles allowing just one run on a solo home run. He faces the Reds for a second time this season and will look to avenge getting knocked around a bit by them on April 26th in Cinci. As long as Newcomb controls the walks, which he has done over his last three outings, his strikeout upside is solid against this Reds team and I only really see Geno Suarez potentially giving him trouble. Brent Suter (MIL) Suter is a value play against the Royals who were just dominated last night and have been a horrific offense for the majority of the season. Suter has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts which came against the Cardinals and Phillies with both games being at home. He’s struck out six batters in four of his last seven starts which has been adequate for a pitcher at his price. In this home start, expect Suter to pitch well enough at 7.1K on FD and 7.3K on DK to consider, even if his strikeout upside isn’t extremely high. Stacks Braves Inciarte, Albies, Freeman, Markakis. Castillo has struggled against lefties to the tune of a .383 wOBA against, 2.31 HR/9, 44 percent hard-contact rate, and a 42 percent fly-ball rate. In a park that caters to left-handed hitters, the Braves bats are in a good spot against a guy like Castillo, especially after being somewhat of a let down last night. Brewers Thames, Braun, Aguilar, Yelich, Villar (value). With Lorenzo Cain on the DL, these are the bats that will have to pick it up and they started last night against Jake Junis and a poor Royals bullpen. Duffy has given up a lot of power production to righties this season which brings Braun and Aguilar into play, as well as Jonathan Villar depending on his spot in the lineup at a good value. Thames hits lefties well and Christian Yelich is fairly split neutral. Seeing as how the Royals pen has been toasted, most of the Brewers are in play, but the guys I mentioned are my preferred options. Main Slate Pitchers Madison Bumgarner (SF) After three sub-par starts, for his standards, to start his season after getting injured in Spring Training, Bumgarner put forth a much better showing in his last start, albeit against the Padres. He faces the Rockies at home, a team he’s had success against in the past. In his last three starts against Colorado, Bumgarner has gone six innings in each, with at least six strikeouts, while allowing a total of four earned runs. I expect a big effort out of the Giants ace tonight at home where he’ll have a positive park shift in his favor. Zack Wheeler (LAD) Over his last four starts, Wheeler has pitched well with a poor effort against the Braves sandwiched in there. In two of those outings Wheeler pitched seven innings and in his last two starts, he had seven and eight strikeouts respectively. The Pirates offense is bad right now. I mean Steven Matz held them in check for the most part last night for fuck’s sake. Wheeler is a value arm on FD and a very cheap SP2 option on DK to build big bats around. Alex Wood (LAD) In case you haven’t noticed, the Cubs are one of the biggest groups of frauds going right now and Alex Wood is coming off a good start against the Mets. Even if the Mets suck, it still counts. The Cubs bats broke open last nights game against the Dodgers bullpen, but as a team had just eight runs in their last six games at Dodger Stadium. Some still are hesitant about attacking the Cubs, but until they start to prove that they can consistently put up runs, and last nights one-inning outburst isn’t enough for me, I’ll have no problem going after them. Jack Flaherty (STL) The Indians bats have been cold since arriving in St. Louis scoring just two runs in the first two games of this series. Flaherty is coming off one of his best starts of the season going seven innings and striking out 13 against the Brewers. While it’s a risky play rostering a pitcher against the Indians, consider that Flaherty has been very good in his last three starts and considering his salary (8.8K on FD, 9.3K on DK) on both sites, he should come in extremely low owned on a night where there are no top flight pitchers, outside of Bumgarner who’s still working his way back, to deal with. Nailing the pitcher tonight could be the difference in taking down a tournament as I don’t see anyone with massive upside. Flaherty could ride the momentum of his last start and keep the Indians at bay and be a huge difference maker tonight. Ivan Nova (PIT) Consider Nova an SP2 play tonight against the Mets who benefit last night from Chad Kuhl not being able to find the strike zone and have zero in-zone command. Nova is the complete opposite of Kuhl in the sense that he won’t be wild as he’s walked more than two batters in just one start all season. His strikeout upside isn’t incredibly high as, outside of three starts this season, he hasn’t racked up high strikeout numbers. However, on DK at 7K, he’ll limit the traffic on the bases and give the Pirates a chance to win which is what you want
Dongers Club – Tue June 26th
MLB DFS slate preview with Steve Renner for Tuesday, June 26th
Dongers Club – Mon 6/25
Monday, June 25th MLB DFS preview
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 6/25
Weather and Park Factors All games play, could see some passing showers in some spots but this is normal this time of year. Confirm weather closer to lock but as of now everything looks pretty good. Pitching Top Tier Mike Clevinger (CLE) FD or SP1 on DK Sunshine has been tremendously dependable for the Indians all season long, especially on the road. In 47.2 innings pitched in hostile territory, Clevinger has a 2.27 ERA, 43 strikeouts, and opponents are hitting just .183 against him. Some of the teams he’s shut down on the road include the Orioles (9 innings, no runs allowed, 2 hits against), the Yankees (7.1 innings, 10 strikeouts, 1 hit, two earned runs), and in his last start the White Sox (7 innings, 11 strikeouts, 5 hits, 1 earned run). Moving to an NL park, Clevinger will have a weaker bottom of the order to deal with, including the starting pitcher. The Cardinals strike out 23 percent of their plate appearances against righties, have a team ISO of .151 and wOBA of .308 against righties. I give Clevinger the slight edge over Snell simply because of the team he plays on. The Indians have a better chance of winning than the Rays do. Plain and simple. Blake Snell (TB) FD or SP1 on DK Snell is pitching like a top arm this season, one of the best in the American league in fact for one of the worst teams in baseball. He’s been dominant at home as over 37.1 innings pitched at Tropicana Field he has a 0.96 ERA, 31 strikeouts, 8 walks, and an opponents batting average of .202. Over his last six starts, Snell has been tremendous going 35.2 innings with 42 strikeouts, 17 walks, and six earned runs. A couple of outlying points there, however. Of the 17 walks allowed, seven came in one start, his last outing against the Astros. Also, of the six earned runs, four came two starts ago, three of those runs attributed to a mistake Snell made to Gleyber Torres for a three-run home run. The Nationals just played at home last night in the Sunday night game and now have to travel, although not very far, to Tampa to play tonight. They have struck out 22 percent of their plate appearances against lefties and face a strikeout arm in Snell. Justin Verlander (HOU) FD or SP1 on DK I like Clevinger and Snell over JV for a couple of reasons, the main one being the salary difference. JV is the highest priced pitcher on both sites and rightfully so. The Jays have a team strikeout rate of 23 percent against righties and JV has struck out 9, 7, and 10 respectively in his last three starts. There’s no doubt that JV is in play here, I’m just not as high on him as others may be tonight considering the value I can take advantage of elsewhere, but he’s number three for me. Mid Tier Vinnie Velasquez (PHI) FD or SP2 on DK First off, I’m not afraid of using pitchers against the Yankees like everyone else is. The Yankees have scored 11 runs in their last four games, three of which were against the Rays mediocre pitching staff with six of those runs coming yesterday. Vinnie has been good over the last seven weeks with the exception of a disastrous effort three starts ago against the Brewers. He’s bounce back nicely, though against the Rockies and Cardinals. Against the Rockies, at home, he went 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts and four earned runs (two of which were inherited runners that the bullpen allowed to score). Against the Cardinals, Vinnie went 6.2 innings with six strikeouts and two earned runs. He’s mid-tier pricing on FD but on DK he’s an SP2 play at a massive bargain. Yes he’s very boom or bust but no one will have him, people will be on the Yankees, and this is a good leverage play with upside as 6 innings with 10 strikeouts is absolutely not out of the question. Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) FD or SP1 on DK Folty returns after missing a start with triceps tightness after leaving a start in which he was cruising after five innings with just 76 pitches. Yes, there is a little bit of tilt there. Nevertheless, Folty is back and it appears that he is ready to roll without restriction. Normally I am hesitant to start pitchers in their first start back off of the DL, but in this case, I’m not worried as much. The Braves staff have been babying their pitchers for the last two years now to the point where former Braves pitchers have basically said it’s ridiculous. There is no way that they would let Folty go out there if he were to be limited or if they weren’t 100 percent sure he was good to go. With that said, Folty is a great value play on FD where he might be somewhat popular against a bad Reds team but on DK NO ONE will pay up for him as the second-highest-priced pitcher on the slate-making him a very contrarian SP1 play. He’s struck out at least seven batters in four of his last six starts while going six or more innings in three of his last five. Folty has been incredible this season, legitimately an All-Star candidate and his numbers at home alone reflect how good he’s been. In 40.1 innings at Sun Trust Park, he has a 2.23 ERA, 54 strikeouts, and a .197 opponents batting average. Value Jameson Taillon (PIT) FD or SP2 on DK I’m not sure what got into the Mets’ bats yesterday but they suck, so we can expect them to go back to scoring 2 to 3 runs top in each game for the next 2 weeks. With that being said, Taillon is a great value on FD if you’re looking to pay down or as an SP2 on DK. Taillon has pitched into the seventh
Dongers Club – Sat. June 23rd
MLB DFS preview with Steve Renner in the Staurday Dongers Club
