MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 7/11 – Main Slate
Weather and Park Factors All games play Yankees at Orioles – Very warm and humid, great hitting conditions in a great hitter park. Blue Jays at Braves – Very warm, some humidity, ball should be flying. *Real quick, let’s get something out of the way. There are a shitload of options tonight on the mound including some top-flight arms, as well as bats all over the damn place to look at, a lot of those which you won’t see in this article. There are too many people in this industry that continue to list every pitcher and position player on the slate night in and night out. It’s pathetic, in my opinion. If you list 15 pitchers and 4 of them hit did you really do a good job? “Here are 14 shortstops, pick one.” Good luck. With that being said, I narrow things down and try to make it as easy for you guys as possible giving you the plays that I have settled on. Now that I got that out of the way, here we go… Pitchers Top Tier Sale (BOS) It’s no surprise that Sale sits at the top tonight amongst the high-dollar arms. He’s facing a Rangers team who features six regular bats that strikeout over 23 percent of their plate appearances against lefties. The Red Sox ace has been rolling over his last four starts striking out 11 plus batters in each outing, completing seven innings in three of four appearances, and has allowed a total of three earned runs. He should get some run support as the Red Sox should beat the shit out of Bartolo Colon. Lance (HOU) McCullers continues to shine at home coming off of a seven-inning, 12 strikeout performance in his last start. While they’re a potent lineup, the A’s have some strikeouts in their lineup and do rely on the home run ball a ton. Lance has allowed just three home runs in 51 innings at home this season to go along with 28.6 percent K rate, 54 percent ground ball rate, and a 29 percent hard-contact rate against at Minute Maid Park this season. Top Tier Fade Carlos Carrasco (CLE) He sucks at home. I’ll continue to hammer this into your heads. This season alone, Carrasco has allowed a .353 wOBA, 1.69 HR/9, and has a 4.26 FIP at home this season. Lefties have hit him well this season, lefties hit in Cleveland (just as SD, he’ll tell you), and the Reds have some potent left-handed bats. Mid -Tier Vinnie (PHI) As of now, I haven’t seen anything about a pitch count on Vinnie. Furthermore, I would think that he is good to go considering that the All-Star break is a week away and it would be very easy to keep him on the sidelines until after the break. Meanwhile, the Mets suck. They are so fucking bad that I’m embarrassed. This team is lifeless, they’ve mailed it in (weeks ago), and it’s going to get a hell of a lot worse moving forward. They all strike out, Vinnie is a strikeout guy and has the luxury of pitching in a good pitchers park. The Mets don’t score as it is, but they really don’t score when Jacob deGrom is pitching. The win may be in doubt considering deGrom doesn’t give up anything these days, but Vinnie’s strikeout upside is sky high and he may sneak out a win here. Folty (ATL) In his last four home starts, Folty has struck out 31 batters and allowed just one earned run over 24 innings pitched against the Cubs, Nats, Reds, and Shitty Mets. Folty has been good at home all season, though with a .259 wOBA against, a 31.5 percent K rate, and a 2.81 FIP. The only issue with Folty is the walks he allows. The Blue Jays walk around eight percent of their plate appearances which should help Folty limit his walks tonight. Maeda (LAD) Maeda is one of these guys that go out there day in and day out and are boring as hell, similar to Kyle Hendricks. However, Maeda has pitched pretty well in San Diego in his last two starts there, a good pitchers park. His FIP is 2.89 which is great and his K/9 is sitting over 10. The Padres strike out a fair amount and Maeda is a solid sub-10K option on FD. Value and SP2 Options Luke Weaver (STL) I’ve been on the record saying that Weaver is a fraud, and I stand by that opinion to a degree. He’s not an elite young pitcher. He’s just not, so let’s stop saying that. He’s a young pitcher that’s got A LOT of room for improvement. So, for now, as long as he’s priced this low he’ll be in play against the shitty teams like the White Sox tonight. Chicago strikes out more than any team in baseball at 25.8 percent and walks just 6.7 percent of the time, the lowest mark of any team in the league. Weaver is fine as an SP2 on DK or a cheap arm on FD if you want to load up on bats. He WILL BE POPULAR though so keep that in mind. Freddy Peralta (MIL) Peralta is cheap on FD relative to his DK price and has a good matchup against the Marlins who will likely be without Jacob Tyler Realmuto again tonight. Peralta has six or more strikeouts in four of his six starts including a 10 and 13 strikeout performances. Like I said, he’s more of an option at 8.7K on FD. Also Consider Marco Gonzales (SEA) SP2 on DK, coming off of two good starts allowing two earned runs with 14 strikeouts over 16 innings pitched. Carlos Rodon (CWS) SP2 on DK, facing the Cardinals who went nuts last night against righty Dylan Covey. The Cards hit righties well as a team but strikeout 24 percent of the time against lefties, the fifth-highest mark in the majors. Favorite Stacks Indians Tyler Mahle
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 7/9
Weather and Park Factors All games play. Pitchers Top Tier Mike Clevinger (CLE) The Indians layed a big egg yesterday against Brett Anderson and the Athletics getting shut out at home, but tonight they’ll be ready to go against the Reds. More specifically, Sunshine will be ready to bounce back after two sub-par outings in a row. Clevinger has shown that he has the ability and the trust of his manager to go deep into games and throw a lot of pitches. He’s thrown over 100 pitches in 11 starts this season and has pitched into at least the seventh inning in 10 starts. In a game in which the Indians should provide some run support against a bad Reds team, Clevinger should provide a productive outing and come away with a win at a very reasonable price on both sites. Jose Berrios (MIN) I love the upside of Berrios, as always, but particularly in this spot against the Royals who are not the team that we’re used to seeing over the years. Berrios has been dominant at home this season with a 10.61 K/9, 31.2 percent K rate, and has allowed just .55 HR/9/ Over his last three home starts, Berrios has gone 22.1 innings, struck out 28, walked just five, allowed 14 hits and just three earned runs. The Royals rank near the bottom in virtually every offensive category against right-handed pitching and Berrios should have no problem carving through them tonight. Also Consider Gerrit Cole (HOU) – I don’t like him to pay off his salary on either site tonight against a dangerous A’s offense who are especially good on the road. Top Tier Pitcher to Fade Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Until I see a Kershaw-esque performance, I’ll have a tough time paying up for him, especially when he’s going to be popular, and even if it’s against the fucking Padres. Mid-Tier, Value, and SP2 Options Chase Anderson (MIL) Anderson has been good in three of his last four starts after going through a dreadful three-outing-stretch from the end of May until the second week of June. The Marlins have been a major pain in the ass lately but they’re due for a letdown game and to be shut down by a pitcher that nibbles around the strike zone and induces a good amount of soft contact and ground-balls. That’s what Anderson does and he’ll get a chance at home. I prefer him on FanDuel as a mid-tier play simply because on DraftKings he may be too cheap to fit in one of the guys up to with him. Andrew Suarez (SF) Over his last two starts, Suarez has performed well pitching in Coors Field and in Arizona going 13 innings with 11 strikeouts and just two runs allowed over that span. He faces the Cubs tonight at home, a ballpark that’s great for pitchers with the Cubs coming off of productive offensive homestand due for a letdown series because I simply don’t think they’re that good. At 8K on DK, he’s a reasonably priced SP2 option and on FD as a very inexpensive play that’ll allow you to pay up for big bats. Also Consider Ivan Nova (PIT) – Nova pitches well at home and faces but faces a Nats team that is hot offensively. At his salary on DK, you won’t need much from him to pay off his price tag and I think he keeps the Nats in check here. This could be a bit of a leverage play as well with the Nats likely drawing some decent ownership. Pitcher to Fade in this Tier Francisco Liriano (DET) First off, he’s going to be chalk on DK because of his salary. That alone makes me want to run and hide because Liriano is hot garbage. The Rays are not as much of a pushover as everyone seems to think. They just got finished beating the shit out of the Mets in their last series and they have some guys like Cron, Ramos, Robertson, and even Jake Bauers that hit lefties well. No Liriano for me. Favorite Stacks Twins The Twins bats woke up yesterday against the Orioles and it was a welcome site. Their offensive explosion could’ve been more substantial if not for two balls that were just missed for home runs; one by Dozier and one by Rosario. I’m loving the righties here against Duffy who gives up a ton of power production to the platoon split. Target Field favors right-handed hitters so guys like Dozier, switch hitters Eduardo Escobar, Robbie Grossman, and Jorge Polanco all line up as plays to consider. Mitch Garver is a cheap catching option on DK as well. Indians Cleveland didn’t show up yesterday against Brett Anderson putting them in a great spot to get back on track tonight. Anthony DeSclafani takes the mound and has struggled against lefties over his career. The Indians feature some potent left-handed bats with Frankie Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez at the top of the price chain. Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis slide in as value lefties to look at in a good left-handed hitters park. Brewers The park shift is a factor to consider with the Brewers here playing in pitcher-friendly Marlins park. If they were at home I’d like them a lot more. With that said, Jose Urena has given up a lot of production to lefties and the Brewers feature three key left-handed bats in Eric Thames, The Mayor, and Christian Yelich who makes his triumphant return to Miami. Jonathan Villar is a value option as a switch hitter as well as the recently acquired Brad Miller. Jesus Aguilar from the right side is having a career year and worth a look as well. Hitters by Position Wilson Ramos (TB) – Crushes lefties and faces a bad one in Liriano. Yaz GranDong (LAD) – Has good numbers in PETCO Park and against the Padres in general. Also, in a limited sample is 4-14 with two home runs against PerDongo.
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 7/7 – Main Slate
Weather and Park Factors Weather looks good everywhere, Warm again in Los Angeles and the roof will be closed in Arizona. Pitchers Max Scherzer (WAS) Let’s not overthink this one. He’s been one of, if not the best pitcher in the National League this season. Let’s throw out the stats and data for a second and look at the Nats last two games. On Thursday they came back from nine runs down to win 14-12. Last night, Mark Reynolds hit a walk-off home run. Before Thursday’s game, Max led the charge in holding a team meeting and to me, it’s no coincidence that they’ve turned things around after losing 17 of their previous 22 games. Max is one of the most emotional pitchers I’ve ever seen and he leads by example. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the Nats take off from here until the all-star break and that starts tonight with a dominant performance from their ace. David Price (BOS) Price looked like absolute shit in his last start which spoiled a stretch of five straight good outings, but I’m willing to give him a pass. He’s never pitched well against the Yankees and he ran into a lineup that was hitting everything in site. The Royals were dominated last night by Chris Sale and as I mentioned in yesterday’s Pitcher Breakdown article, have been one of the worst teams in baseball against lefties. If you’re not willing to pay up for Max, Price is the guy that I favor over…. Robbie Ray (ARI) I like the Ray upside each time he takes the mound. I like the matchup here for him, for the most part. I don’t love the idea of Ray, a guy that walks hitters and gives up home runs facing a Padres team that has some guys that can hit tanks. If Ray gets in trouble with free passes, which he’s held in check over his last two starts, things can get ugly fast with guys like Renfroe, Villanueva, Myers, and Margot; guys who hit lefties well and with power. There’s nothing wrong with Ray, he’s third on my list, but there is some risk here. Expect him to be the second-highest owned arm behind Max. Favorite Stacks Dodgers The Dodgers were a bit of a let down last night in great hitting conditions against a right-handed pitcher with minimal experience. So, the script is set again. It’s going to be very warm in L.A. as the Angels host the Dodgers and Deck McGuire will be making his second start of the season. Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger; likely the one through four hitters in the Dodger lineup are the four bats that I love here. All four of them hit right-handed pitching very well and these hitting conditions, along with the gametime (4:00 pm local time) should help the ball carry a bit. Diamondbacks Much like the Dodgers, the Dbacks did not perform to the level that some expected them to last night, and for that matter over the last two nights. Tonight they are facing Tyson Ross, who pitched well against them in Arizona on April 20th, and he is due to get smacked around. Jake Lamb and Goldy are the big bats that I want to lock in here, along with AJ Pollock as a third high-priced option. As far as value goes, Steven Souza and Jon Jay are value guys to consider with Jay likely leading off and Souza likely in the five hole. Don’t forget about David Peralta who would likely play if Souza does not and would likely slide into the five-hole. Nationals Right-handed bats are where I’m mainly looking here. Chen has been throttled by righties this season and the few notable right handed bats on Washington hammer lefties. Rendon, Trea, Mark Reynolds, and even Michael A. Taylor are all in play with Reynolds and Taylor serving as value bats to fit Max in. Hitters by Position Catcher Austin Hedges (SD) – Good value if you need it to fit Max in. Sandy Leon (BOS) – Hitting the ball hard with a 95 mph average exit velocity over his last six games and gets you cheap Red Sox exposure. First Base Mark Reynolds (WAS) – Big walk-off dong yesterday, lefty who sucks against righties. Reynolds should get the start at a great value on both sites. Cody Bellinger (LAD) – 52 percent fly-ball rate with a 50 percent hard-hit rate over his last 14 games. Second Base Max Muncy (LAD) – On FD he’s a second baseman. Easily the best play at a shitty position. Whit Merrifield (KC) – Hits lefties well, one of the two bats that scare me against Price. Eduardo Nunez (BOS) – Red Sox exposure, cheap on both sites. Third Base Anthony Rendon (WAS) – Love the one-off play here against Chen. Rendon hits lefties very well and has been hitting the ball hard over his last 14 games. Raf Devers (BOS) – I have no idea why he’s $2,700 on FD, but if you’re paying down at this spot, he’s the guy to look at. Shortstop Xander (BOS) – Kills the Royals and is three for his last six with two home runs. Chris Taylor (LAD) – Eight for his last 16 with a double, triple, and home run. Outfield Matt Kemp (LAD) – McGuire has some reverse-splits history, Kemp is eight for his last 17 with two doubles and two home runs. Joc Pederson (LAD) – Over a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Over his last 12 games, he has an hard-hit rate of 48 percent, a fly-ball rate of 52 percent, and should lead off. Steven Souza (ARI) – Very cheap on both sites considering he hasn’t done shit this season. Has good reverse-splits power and should hit fifth in the lineup. Make sure to check the lineup, though, as we may have a platoon situation on our hands with a
Dongers Club – Saturday July 7th (Early)
Saturday afternoon MLB DFS preview with Steve Renner in the Dongers Club. Top pitchers, top stacks and of course — the guys who are gonna go yard.
MLB DFS: Pitcher Breakdown – July 6th
Top Tier Lance McCullers (HOU) McCullers has always been a great pitcher at home and this year is no different. He’s surrendered a .249 wOBA, has a 9 K/9, 25.6 percent K rate and a 53 percent ground-ball rate. In his last three starts overall, McCullers has gone seven innings in two of those (19 innings in total) with 25 strikeouts and just six walks and five earned runs. The matchup for McCullers is a favorable one as the White Sox as a team has struck out 24 percent of their at-bats and walked just 5.1 percent of their plate appearances over the last two weeks. Furthermore, some of the White Sox regulars have astronomical strikeout totals against righties on the season, including Yoan Moncada (35 percent), Tim Anderson (26 percent), Matt Davidson (37 percent), and Daniel Palka (32 percent). Lance is the arm that I’m leaning towards in a very crowded top tier. Chris Sale (BOS) There’s not much to say here about Sale that you don’t know already, so I’ll focus on the Royals’ struggles against left-handed pitching. As a team, K.C. has a .293 wOBA, .131 ISO, and 83 wRC+ against southpaws, all of which rank among the five worst in baseball. The Royals have lost six games in a row and have scored just 14 runs over that span. It goes without saying that you’ll have to pay up for Sale as he’s 14K on DK and 12.5K on FD; both of which are the highest of all pitchers. He has the highest floor of all arms on the hill tonight. Jacob deGrom (NYM) deGrom has been the one bright spot for a putrid Mets team this season. He’s been masterful with an 11.24 K/9, 31.5 percent K rate and just a 6.6 percent walk rate. deGrom’s hard-contact rate against is just 29 percent which is well below league average. The Rays had been very pesky, especially early in the month of June but over the last two weeks, they’ve come back down to earth. Over that span, they have the third-highest strikeout percentage (24.6 percent), a .305 wOBA, and just a .110 ISO. deGrom has gone at least six innings and struck out six batters while allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of his last nine starts. At home he’s a worthwhile pivot off of Sale, however, there is always the risk that the Mets won’t provide him with run support and/or the bullpen will blow the win for him. Also Consider Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) – Folty is more of a FanDuel play for me against a strikeout-prone Brewers team where he’s just 8.8K. Folty has had issues with walks as he’s in the top ten in walks per start which is a big reason as to why I prefer him on FD seeing as how you don’t lose points for walks. The other reason is simply the price; on DK Folty is 10.5K and I don’t see a need to pay for him at that price. Mid-Tier, Value, and SP2 Options Zack Godley (ARI) The Padres scored some runs last night but outside of Wil Myers, who rakes in Arizona, no one really hit the ball well. They benefit from scoring three ones in one inning which was aided by a Nick Ahmed error. Long story short, the Padres are nothing that should scare you off of Godley who has shut them down in each of his last two home starts against them. He’s 8.2K on FD where I prefer using him as I simply don’t like paying up for him on DK to pair him up with a top-tier arm. He’ll get his ground balls, get some strikeouts, and should come away with a win provided that the DBacks bats wake up after a poor showing last night. Sonny Gray (NYY) Sonny is back pitching in Toronto, a stadium in which he’s always had success. Over seven starts in Toronto including 43 innings, Sonny has a 1.88 era and 47 strikeouts. In two games (12 innings) in Toronto this season, Sonny has 16 strikeouts and one earned run allowed. On the road this season, Sonny has been a different pitcher with a 9.26 K/9, 24.7 percent K rate, and just a 6.6 percent walk rate along with a 52 percent ground ball rate. He’s my preferred SP2 play on DK tonight at 6.8K as he should get some run support and walk away with a win. Trevor Williams (PIT) Williams will benefit from pitching at home where he’s coming off of two good starts against the Brewers and Diamondbacks. Over those two outings, T-Will has gone 13 innings with 13 strikeouts with just two walks and three earned runs allowed. The Phillies offense is dangerous, but they are much better at home. PNC Park is a positive park shift for Williams who is another SP2 option on DK. Jordan Zimmermann (DET) Zimmermann has often been a guy to pick on in DFS and is still known to have a blow-up game from time to time. He, like many other pitchers, for example, C.C. Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, and others has had to re-create himself a bit as he no longer throws in the upper 90’s as he did when he was a prized arm for the Nationals years ago. It’s taken him some time, but if his recent production is any indication, Zimmermann has refined his game. Over his last five starts, spanning over 29 innings, Zimmermann has allowed just five earned runs while walking five and allowing 17 hits. He’s racked up 23 strikeouts over that span which is about the norm for him as he’s never been a high volume strikeout arm. Facing the Rangers at home, though, should aide his strikeout upside as Texas has struck out 25.2 percent of the time against righties, the fourth-highest mark in baseball this season. Limiting the home-run ball is key against the Rangers and Zimmermann has done that over his last five starts
Dongers Club – Thursday, July 5th
It’s a fantastic day after holiday MLB DFS slate and Steve Renner strongly feels there’s some lock plays tonight that you will want to focus on for your lineups. Check it all out in the Dongers Club today, July 5th.
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 7/4 – Early Slate
Happy Fourth of July, everyone. In this article, I’ll cover the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. games. Naturally, FanDuel’s early slate is only three games as they’ll an afternoon slate later on as usual. DraftKings’ early slate features all seven early games. Weather and Park Factors It’s hot. There’s your weather report. Roof’s in Miami, Milwaukee, and Seattle should be closed. Pitchers Aaron Nola (CIN) This is a good slate for pitching in my opinion and Nola is at the top of the list for me pitching at home against the Orioles. In Philly this season, Nola has a .227 wOBA against, 29.7 K rate, 54 percent ground ball rate, 5.2 percent walk rate, and 10.13 K’s/9. The Orioles have been a disappointment all season long, outside of Manny Machado and have a lineup that is full of strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Sign me up for Nola at home this afternoon. Jose Berrios (MIN) While the Brewers are a dangerous team hitting in a good ballpark at home, their lineup has been susceptible to the strikeout going down 25 percent of their plate appearances against righties by way of the K. Berrios has been a bit erratic at times but has also had some incredible starts. He has high strikeout upside as he’s struck out 10 or more hitters four times and has the ability to go deep into his starts throwing at least seven innings in nine of his starts. Berrios is a high upside play. Sean Manaea (OAK) Manaea has looked better in his last three starts after a rocky stretch since throwing his no-hitter. The Padres offense is one that we can pick on and thus Manaea is worth a look. He’s $1,000 less than Aaron Nola and $300 more than Jose Berrios on DK putting him right in the middle and likely with less ownership. In a good pitchers park against a bad offense, this is a good spot for a dominant performance from Manaea which would be his first since going 7.1 innings against the Royals on June 10th. Jose Urena (MIA) There’s nothing special about Jose Urena but he’s in play as an SP2 on DK at just $6,900. He doesn’t post high strikeout totals but he gets a ton of ground balls, over a 50 percent rate in fact. This Rays team is pesky but at his salary, Urena will serve as a viable SP2 value option. Also Consider: Chase Anderson (MIL) – As an SP2 against an inconsistent Twins team. Favorite Stacks Phillies Yefry Ramirez makes his third start for the Orioles after going 4.1 innings in his first and 5 innings in his last. The Phillies are a team that hits much better at home and will get to face Ramirez and the putrid Orioles bullpen. I’m looking at the top four hitters for the Phillies as usual; Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins Willie Mays Hayes, and Carlos Santana. Nick Williams and Scott Kingery will serve as value bats to look at in a great hitting environment. Athletics Luis Perdomo was called up from triple-A to make this start for Jordan Lyles who is on the DL. Perdomo has been around for a while and he’s nothing special. The A’s lineup is dangerous and they’ve hit a ton of home runs this season. A day game at home with warm weather should mean a high-scoring day against Perdomo for the A’s. There are four A’s with large sample sizes against right-handed hitters that have ISO’s of .200 or better; Khris Davis (.283), Matt Olson (.262), Jed Lowrie (.243), and Matt Chapman (.207). Oakland is very boom or bust as they live and die with the home run ball and I think they put up some runs in this spot. Tigers I’ve been very vocal about how much I hate Jose Quintana and how much I think he sucks. When he had his ONE good year with the White Sox he was literally the biggest fraud going. In 18 starts against the Tigers, who he obviously saw a lot as a White Sock, Quintana has a 4.37 ERA and has allowed 130 hits and 11 home runs in 111.1 innings pitched. The Tigers have some guys that can hit lefties well, including Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, and James McCann to name a few. Some will roster Quintana on DK as an SP2 play thus making the Tigers come in way low owned. I like the upside here. Hitters by Position Catcher Willson Contreras (CHC)-.443 wOBA and .261 ISO over his last six games. Kurt Suzuki (ATL) – Good production against Sabathia lifetime going 11/39 with three doubles and four home runs. First Base Matt Olson (OAK) – Over his last 13 games, Olson has a 55 percent hard-hit rate and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. Logan Morrison (MIN) – Cheap power-upside in a good park for lefties. Has a 62 percent fly-ball rate over his last 10 games. Second Base Cesar Hernandez (PHI) – He’s been on base in seven straight games, has power upside, and should score some runs today. Jed Lowrie (OAK) – Scorching hot over his last six games with a .591 wOBA, .450 ISO, and 47 percent hard-hit rate. Third Base Matt Chapman (OAK) – Great reverse-splits power, good salary on both sites. Christian Villanueva (SD) – .469 wOBA and .466 ISO against lefties. 11 of his 16 home runs have come against southpaws. Shortstop Addie Russell (CHC) – Hitting the ball hard of late and always hits lefties well. Jorge Polanco (MIN) – He’s played two games since returning from a PED suspension. He’s priced well at a shitty position in a great hitters park. Outfield Khris Davis (OAK) – Massive power vs righties, day-game weather, he homers. Nicholas CasteDongos (DET) – Hammers lefties, has a .407 ISO in his last seven games, has good numbers against Quintana, no one will roster him Ian Happ (CHC) – Hit a home run against a lefty the other day
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 7/2
Weather and Park Factors All games play. The weather is still very hot and humid in some spots, specifically on the East coast. It is July, after all. Expect the roof’s in Toronto, Milwaukee, and Arizona to be closed. Pitchers The Aces Tonight two of the, what I consider, aces of the league are going. On a slate with some great hitting environments with high priced bats, including Coors Field, decisions where to spend your salary will be a bit more tricky than usual. Corey Kluber (CLE) I’m leaning Kluber over Max for a few reasons, one of which is the matchup for Kluber who faces the Royals, a team that is just a couple of weeks from trading off guys, most notably Mike Moustakas. The Royals have the worst team wOBA (.254), fourth-worst team ISO (.107), and eighth-highest K rate (24.2 percent) in baseball over the last two weeks. Kluber has been bad in two of his last three starts with his last outing being the worst of his career. He will bounce back to start off what has been one of his best months over his career. In July, Kluber has a 2.52 ERA and a 10.1 K/9, the second-highest of any month over his career. Against the Royals he has a 2.82 career era, 138 strikeouts, and has allowed just 119 hits over 137 innings pitched, spanning over 21 starts. Kluber bounces back in a big way tonight. Max Scherzer (WAS) Max is one of the best pitchers in baseball and you don’t need me to tell you that. Obviously, he’s worth rostering any time he takes the mound against whomever he’s facing. With that said, I am personally favoring Kluber over Max tonight with Max facing the Red Sox, an offense that is one of the most formidable in baseball. He should be lower owned than Kluber, who could see some heavy ownership, but this matchup just isn’t one that I want to mess with given the option of going Kluber over him. Mid-Tier Alex Wood (LAD) Wood has been good in his last two starts, one of which came against the Mets and the other coming against the Cubs. The Pirates come into town to face Wood who has allowed just nine earned runs and struck out 34 batters in his last 28.1 innings pitched against them spanning over five starts. On DK he’s salary is a bit hefty, but on FD I think 8.3K is a fair price for him if you want to look into the mid-tier. Nate Kingham (PIT) Wood’s counterpart, Kingham is an arm that’s in play for me on DK, not so much on FD, in a game that I suspect to be low scoring. He’s pitched into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts striking out five-plus batters in three of those starts. The Dodgers have been doing most of their damage with the home-run ball of late after a historic month of June hitting dongs so if Kingham can limit those, which I think he will, he should prove to be productive. Value and SP2 Plays Brent Suter (MIL) Suter has pitched well, well enough at least to consider at SP2 on DK for just 6.5K. The lefty has gone at least five innings in each of his last nine starts while allowing three or fewer runs in seven of those nine outings. While the Twins enjoyed a massive offensive output in Chicago this weekend, I’m still not sold that their offense is back and awake. Much of that production was aided by extremely warm weather and massive winds pumping out at Wrigley, where wind plays the most substantial role of any stadium in the league (file that away). With the roof closed in Milwaukee, offense generally increases, but this Twins team, who will lose the DH is still to for me to worry about. Suter is a good pivot off of Luis Castillo who will likely be the chalk SP2. James Shields (CWS) In a way, Shields is a leverage play against the Reds but he’s actually pitched well throwing at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 starts with three or less earned runs allowed in all but three. While his strikeout upside isn’t very high, his salary on DK isn’t either and that’s exactly where I like him. On DK as an SP2 with Kluber or Max; whichever you decide on. Pitcher To Fade Luis Castillo (CIN) Number one, he’ll be popular on DK with the Castillo truthers jumping all over him taking on the White Sox. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last six starts and has completed six innings in just one of those outings. I won’t go anywhere near Castillo tonight. Favorite Stacks Braves I love the Braves in this spot, especially with this Loaisiga fraud on the mound. These Yankee fans act like this guy is here to save their pitching staff and it’s comical. He’s pitched well thus far, but he’s due for some serious regression and with the Braves offense coming to town in that ballpark they jump off the page to me. Freddie and Ozzie are the first two bats to plug in here with Ender and Acuna my next two preferred options. If you simply want to go one through four, moving Nick Markakis in isn’t something I would argue against. In 55 games played in Yankee Stadium, he has a .327 average with 10 home runs. Dansby Swanson and whoever catches (Kurt Suzuki or Tyler Flowers) could serve as some salary relief for a Braves team that is expensive. Indians Speaking of expensive, have you seen some of the prices on these Indians bats? Jesus. Lindor and Jose Ramirez are going to very tough bats to fit in, thus making them fairly contrarian. If you have the guts to fade the top arms, they won’t be a problem to fit in. I’m looking at some of
Sunday Dongers Club – July 1st
INTRODUCTION & WEATHER Welcome to July. It’s hot and we have wind + heat in Wrigley Field. Actually, they’ve had it the last few days but those games werent really on a main slate so most people weren’t paying attention to them. I was, I saw the weather and expected high scoring games so far, and we got them. That game is going to dictate the entire slate today. On Sunday we get different sized slates when the Rockies and Rangers are at home and we have the Rangers at home so DK has one extra game — Chicago (Lopez) @ Texas (Hamels) PITCHING It’s Sunday and I don’t like much of anything today. J.A. Happ and Steven Matz appear to be the chalk combination on DK and I don’t love Happ’s matchup against the Tigers who really hit lefties well but Happ has always pitched decent on Sunday’s and the Jays are gonna win today. My guys to get weird today are …. Freddy Peralta … No Scooter here for the Reds really boosts Peralta up for me today. I’d rather have him than Snell against those dangerous Astros 1-4 hitters right now. Dan Straily … South beach theory, but there’s very little upside. Conforto will take him yard and then he’ll settle in and pitch decent. Jake Arrietta … Phillies win, but it’s Jake f’n Arrieta in 97 degree temps. Use with caution HITTING TARGETS CATCHERS Mitchell C. Garver III … Seriously, he’s 2800 compared to Gattis at 4100 and Garver is in conditions that make me in Coors look like a good pitching choice while Gattis plays in ole Tropicana Field after a Saturday night in Tampa? Evan Gattis … It’s Sunday Russell Martin … Thanks to Geriak for reminding me he is the Canadien on team on Canada day. FIRST BASE Tony Rizzo in the Hizzo … Lets not over think this on main lineups today. Jose Abreu … One of these days he’s gonna explode for 2 HR. Joey Votto … Just a dumb narrative. SECOND BASE Brian Dozier … So I have a rule about young hitters homering off young pitchers and old hitters homering off old pitchers and bad hitters homering off bad pitchers and elite hitters homering off elite pitchers. Well, this doesn’t really fit any of these except the old vs old, but this is what I consider douche vs douche home run. Javy Baez Jose Altuve … Snell is 6’5 Ryne Sandberg Kolten Wong THIRD BASE Alex MVP Bregman Travis Mayor Sundays Shaw Yangervis Solarte Luis Valbuena SHORTSTOP Manny Machado Ariana Grande What are we doing here? Play Manny. OUTFIELD – Tier 1 Adam Jones Teoscar Hernandez Tommy Pham Ryan Braun Eddie Rosario … Questionable. OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Mike Trout … Teams have tried to pitch Trout up in the zone more. I would love to see Gausman try to do that today, he can’t. He’ wont. Nick Castellanos Rhys Hoskins Kyle Schwarber OUTFIELD – Tier 3 Curtis Granderson Robert Grossman Jason Heyward Aaron Altherr Trey Mancini Ian Happ STACKS THE GAME OF THE DAY Wrigleyville … This series has been going off with the warm temps in Chicago and it’s 90 again today with heavy winds blowing out and two donkey arms on the hill. Lance Lynn is heavy splits BAD against lefties and lets check, yeah the Cubs have some guys who can go out of the park from that side of the plate in Rizzo, Schwarber and Heyward/Zobrist donkey plays. The Twins on the other hand should NOT be ignored against Lester. Love Dozier and Robbie Grossman today and if Eddie Rosario is in we gotta roll him on a Sunday as well despite the LvL matchup. MY FAVORITE PIVOT (not really a pivot, get wrigley exposure in my mind) Orioles … I think they’re overlooked today despite facing a no-name pitcher who is from Richmond, VA… We’re in a trend right now of teams being in good spots but around 8-10% owned going off for double digit runs and Baltimore is my team today. The Angels pen is a little worn down and when they have to come in today during the third inning the Orioles will continue to have fun playing home run derby in Camden Yards and then go back to sucking the rest of the week. Manny, Jones and whoever Buck Showalter puts in the six hole. Even if it’s Chris Davis. CHALK VALUE STACK Blue Jays … Rays and Jays Sundays! It’s Canada Day! And it’s Jordan Zimmermann due to get blown up day. Expect the Jays to be a little chalky with higher priced SP lineups with Granderson leading the charge here. Russ Martin is the Canada Day narrative and Teoscar is their best player. MY SNEAKY STACKS Phillies … Screw Gio, it’s almost 100 degrees here and this game feels like a 3-0 game that turns into an 8-1 lopsided final and I think folks are gonna ride on the Nats side and I just hate going against the Phils at home on Sunday’s. Screw Gio. Rhys & Alther are gonna go yard here today. White Sox … They’ll be low owned on DK with the Wrigley game and the Rangers taking the ownership here. White Sox win today. LONGSHOT SNEAKY Astros … Snell is 6’5, Bregman is on fire, and Gattis is there to clean it up. FADES Nationals Rangers/White Sox DONGERS CLUB Manny Machado – SS – Chairman Adam Jones – OF Aaron Altherr – OF Anthony Rizzo – 1B Kyle Schwarber – OF Brian Dozier – 2B Mitchell C. Garver – C Travis Shaw – 3B BONUS ………………. Jose Altuve – 2B
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 6/30 – Early Slate
Weather and Park Factors All games play. Very warm temperatures on the East coast which will benefit offenses. The Mets at Marlins game will have a closed roof. Pitchers Jacob deGrom (NYM) deGrom was scratched from last nights start due to a family issue but is slated to start tonight against the Marlins in Miami. He’s faced the Marlins twice this season and has seen mixed results. In his last outing, which came at home a little over a month ago, deGrom went seven innings with eight strikeouts and no earned runs. I think we see a similar line this afternoon; seven innings, seven to nine K’s and a run or two. The question is whether or not the Mets bullpen will be able to hold a lead if he gets one from the piss poor Mets offense. In that last start against Miami, he was NOT rewarded with a win. Justin Verlander (HOU) JV has been great all year, but I’m not so high on him here. For whatever reason, the Rays have been a major pain in the ass whenever they’ve faced good pitchers and good teams in general. On paper, the Astros should beat the piss out of the Rays, but who the hell cares about paper? In the last two nights, the Rays have given the Astros everything they have and have split losing 1-0 on Thursday and winning 3-2 last night. Gerrit Cole was not on top of his game last night, due in part to the peskiness of the Rays. JV is a fine option to consider, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, if I had to choose between him and deGrom tonight, I’d lean deGrom. Vinnie Velasquez (PHI) Vinnie has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts with strikeout totals of seven, eight, and six respectively allowing two or fewer runs in two of those three outings. He faces the Nats who, if you hadn’t heard by now beat the shit out of Nick Pivetta and the Phillies pen last night. For that reason, no one will go with Vinnie today. I will, though, especially on FD at 8.2K which will allow me to get the big bats that I want in. If the Nats go bananas again, I’ll take my L, but I don’t see it happening and Vinnie has looked confident and determined in his last three starts against the Yankees, Cardinals, and Rockies which all came at home. Tyler Skaggs (LAA) Skaggs is expensive on both sites sitting at 9.8K on FD and 11.1K on DK. He’s been pitching out of his mind over his last four starts going at least seven innings in three of those outings with eight strikeouts in three and allowing a total of two earned runs. The Orioles have been a team that has struggled with left-handed pitching all season long and Skaggs, who has made his last three starts on the road, will look to continue his good fortune away from home. Favorite Stacks Angels Andrew Cashner is due to get destroyed and this game, at home, in the heat, against the Angles is where he gets rocked… again. Trout (no shit), Upton, and Kinsler are the three big bats that I like here. Also look at Albert Pujols and if Kole Calhoun leads off again he’s a good value piece with some power, as well as Martin Maldonado on DK at catcher. The Angels will benefit from getting a guaranteed ninth-innings at-bat and facing a bad Orioles bullpen. Phillies Overshadowed by the Nationals 17-run explosion, the Phillies scored seven runs last night giving them 14 runs in their last three games. The Nats are tossing Jeremy Hellickson out today who is making his first major league appearance since June 3rd. The top four of the Phillies have all been productive of late; Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Willie Mays Hayes (who’s cooled off a bit but profiles well here), and Carlos Santana. You can consider Scott Kingery and Maikel Franco at value pieces to fit into this stack, but I wouldn’t avoid the top four unless you absolutely can’t fit them in. Brewers The top/middle of the lineup hasn’t done much for the Brewers in this series, yet, outside of a three-run home run by Thames against the bullpen on Thursday as well as a solo shot by Aguilar in the first inning of that same game. I love Thames again who has killed the Reds over the last two season. Aguilar is red-hot overall and has hit for big-time power against righties. Ryan Braun is the guy we have to wait and see on. He left last nights game early and since he’s basically an old man now, he likely won’t play which really fucking sucks, especially since Christian Yelich is already out. Reds starter Tyler Mahle has been rocked by lefties this season which makes Travis Shaw and Johnny Villar come into play. Assuming that Braun and Yelich are out, Thames, Shaw, Villar, and Aguilar are my top bats with Manny Pina and Keon Broxton serving as value options. Hitters by Position Catcher Tucker Barnhart (CIN) – Chacin struggles against lefties, has allowed nine earned runs and two home runs in his last 10 innings in Cinci, and Barnhart has been hitting second. Roberto Perez (CLE) – Value bat that gives you Indian exposure. First Base Eric Thames (MIL) – .338 average and 13 home runs in 20 games lifetime against the Reds. Justin Bour (MIA) – Contrarian play that has hit deGrom very well. Second Base Johnny Villar (MIL) – Great price on FD as a one-off or part of a Brewers stack. Cesar Hernandez (PHI) – He’s been on base in nine of his last ten games. Third Base Geno Suarez (CIN) – Hitting the ball hard with an average exit velocity of 98 miles-per-hour over his last 13 games. Alex Bregman (HOU) – No one hotter than him right now
