MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Building Blocks – 8/17
In this article, I’m going to lay out the groundwork to build off in three to five entry max contests. When playing these types of contests, I find that I have the most success when I have a core, (generally one pitcher on FD and two on DK with a three-player stack and one to two one-off bats) that will find their way into 100% of my lineups. The idea of locking in a core is to limit, for lack of a better term, “randomness” across our lineups. By mixing and matching a few bats around our core across all lineups, we’re able to rule out some tough lineup decisions we may face while not getting completely overwhelmed with a large pool of players. Below I’ve outlined the pitchers, stacks, and one-offs that I’m considering incorporating into my core for tonight. Top Pitchers Max Scherzer (WAS) Scherzer is the clear-cut top arm tonight against a watered-down Marlins lineup. The Nats have had a dreadful, underachieving season but none of that has translated to Max; he’s been great. I won’t go digging into numbers and bore you to death with the analytics here. Sometimes the best play is the obvious play, and tonight if you want to pay up (I think you need to for at least one arm on DK) Max is the guy. End of story. Robbie Ray (ARI) Ray has had a very up and down season with injuries and inconsistent play. One thing that has been consistent this season is how bad the Padres have been and will continue to be until the campaign comes to a close. His last two starts against the Padres have been sub-par, at best, but the three previous outings against them were dominant. He’s got extremely high strikeout upside, faces a team that doesn’t walk which will help Ray’s struggles in that regard, and the park shift is in Ray’s favor. At 8.3K on FD Ray is a great value if you prefer to spend up on bats. James Shields (CWS) As an SP2 on DK, I like Shields’ salary and spot a ton against the Royals, a team he has had success against this season. In two starts against Kansas City, Shields has a combined 15 strikeouts and six earned runs over 13.2 innings pitched. At his salary of 6.3K, Shields allows you to pay up for your SP1, ideally Max, while getting a good mix of bats to feel very good about. Core Stacks Indians Yonder Alonso, Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis I know I keep going back to this train but as long as the Tribe keeps facing shitty pitchers I have no reason to not take advantage of the value bats from Cleveland. Alonso, Cabrera, and Kipnis have all been playing well and should take advantage of David Hess. Hess has had issues all season long, especially with lefties, and, you know… lefties in Cleveland? Yeah. Thank SD for that one. Hess has allowed a .372 wOBA, 2.43 HR/9, and a 48 percent fly ball rate to lefties this season. He sucks. The Orioles bullpen sucks. The Indians score ten. Rangers Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo The weather is great, the ballpark is great, and the Angels pitching is horrific. Odrisamer Despaigne hasn’t pitched in the major since the end of May and unfortunately walks into Texas against a team that has scored 31 runs in their last six games. Odor, Mazara, and Gallo are a value stack with high upside, especially on FanDuel where it’s easy to fit Max in with them. Odor has hits in six of his last seven games, Mazara returned off the DL last night and homered, and Gallo has been hitting the ball hard including a home run and a double last night. The ball was flying out of Texas last night and will be again tonight for the Rangers against Despaingne and poor Angels bullpen. Top One-off Bats More often than not these are value/underpriced high upside bats, otherwise, they could be bats that I simply have to have in all of my lineups. At times they’ll serve as salary relief allowing you to mix and match some exposure with higher-priced bats throughout our lineups. Anthony Rizzo (CHC) Rizzo has owned PNC Park and the Pirates for years now. In 56 games played in Pittsburgh, Rizzo has a .322 batting average with 19 doubles and 14 home runs. In the Cubs’ previous series in PNC, Rizzo went five for ten with a double and two home runs. Over his last 12 games, Rizzo has posted a 92 mile-per-hour average exit velocity with a 42 percent fly ball rate. At 4K on FD and 4.8K on DK, Rizzo is the fourth-highest and fifth-highest priced first baseman respectively. He homers tonight. Miguel Sano (MIN) Sano had a big night last night and has been swinging the bat much better after his demotion all the way down to single A before the All-Star break. Over his last six games, Sano has gone nine for 24 with a double and three home runs. Over his last 11 games, Sano has posted a 56 percent hard-hit rate gets a good matchup at home where right-handed power hitters are at an advantage.
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Building Blocks – 8/15
In this article, I’m going to lay out the groundwork to build off in three to five entry max contests. When playing these types of contests, I find that I have the most success when I have a core, (generally one pitcher on FD and two on DK with a three-player stack and one to two one-off bats) that will find their way into 100% of my lineups. The idea of locking in a core is to limit, for lack of a better term, “randomness” across our lineups. By mixing and matching a few bats around our core across all lineups, we’re able to rule out some tough lineup decisions we may face while not getting completely overwhelmed with a large pool of players. Below I’ve outlined the pitchers, stacks, and one-offs that I’m considering incorporating into my core for tonight. Top Pitchers Gerrit Cole (HOU) Cole is right at the top of my list tonight against the Rockies, who outside of a Nolan Arenado flick-of-the-wrist opposite field home run against Justin Verlander last night were dominated to the tune of six innings and 11 strikeouts. Colorado ended up adding some on against the Astros bullpen which has been their Achilles heel all season long. However, the Rockies play on the road has been an issue all season, which is to be expected. Colorado has a 24 percent K rate, .161 ISO, and .299 wOBA on the road. To tack on to the Rockies’ inefficiencies on the road, Cole has been lights out pretty much all season, especially at home. Cole has a .248 wOBA against to go along with a 36 percent K rate, 12.56 K/9, and a 2.68 FIP. Cole faced Colorado in Coors Field on July 24th going 6.1 innings with nine K’s with five hits and two earned runs allowed. Expect a similar outing tonight, at least from Cole with a victory to go along with it. Zack Wheeler (NYM) Wheeler comes in red-hot over his last three starts and faces an Orioles team that have a team wOBA of .308, ISO of .170, and a strikeout rate of 24 percent against righties. Wheeler over his last three starts has gone seven, seven, and six innings respectively with 24 strikeouts, three walks, and two earned runs allowed. With a lineup now without Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop in it, Wheeler is a more than fine option on either site, especially on DK at $1,400 less than Cole. Dylan Bundy (BAL) As an SP2 play, it’s very hard to overlook Bundy facing Wheeler and the Mets at 6.5K on DK. While others may look to Felix Pena (6.6K) and Robbie Erlin (4.9K) as options, I trust Bundy more than either one of them. Bundy had a horrid stretch from July 6th through July 20th, had two very good starts after, and now is coming off of a start against the Red Sox in which the Sox just bull rushed him. Bundy has had a few horrid starts this season and has been beaten by the home run ball. The Mets HR/FB rate against righties is just 11.5 percent, 20th in the majors which should help Bundy bring down his high home run total on the season. Bundy’s 24 percent K rate is respectable against a team that strikes out a ton and his seven percent is very good. The Mets were impressive against Severino the other night, but they are not a good offensive team. Plain and simple. I expect Bundy to dominate them tonight. Core Stacks Braves Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte I know what you people are wondering. How the hell can I not have Ronald Acuna in this core? Well, a couple of things here. First of all, you can’t play everyone at the top for the Braves because of their salaries. Second of all, this is about finding a core to build around because, believe it or not, based on salary again, you need to be able to afford eight hitters and a pitcher or in the case of DK two pitchers. With all of that being said, Jose Urena, the Marlins starter has had a hell of a time against the Braves and specifically against lefties all season but has done well against righties. He’s surrendered a .336 wOBA and a 45 percent hard-contact rate to lefties and as we know, Sun Trust Park is a park that caters to lefties. Freddie and Ender have good numbers against Urena and Albies is coming in off of a day off (which I love) and has multiple hits in four of his last five games. In good weather against the Marlins who are going to really fall off a cliff, in my mind sooner than late, the Braves should throw plenty of runs up on the board tonight. Indians Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis I’ve been riding these guys for a few days now and with Cleveland facing horrific pitching in a good hitters park it just makes sense. Robert Stephenson gets the start for the Reds who, let’s be honest, have NO PITCHING to speak of. In a similar situation to the Braves, we won’t be able to get the top bats from the Tribe like Lindor and Ramirez so we’ll have to look to some of the guys that are priced well in a good spot to succeed. Brantley is the guy for me at the top. He’ll more than likely be hitting second in between Lindor and Ramirez and is as solid as they come day in and day out. Alonso and Kipnis have been hitting well in the four and six spots respectively. Alonso has a .341 wOBA and .213 ISO against righties this season. Brantley and Kipnis both have a 42 percent hard-hit rate over the last two weeks and over their last four games are a combined 15 for 33 with four doubles and a home run. Cleveland continues to take batting practice at the Great American Ballpark tonight.
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Building Blocks – 8/12
In this article, I’m going to lay out the groundwork to build off in three to five entry max contests. When playing these types of contests, I find that I have the most success when I have a core, (generally one pitcher on FD and two on DK with a three-player stack and one to two one-off bats) that will find their way into 100% of my lineups. The idea of locking in a core is to limit, for lack of a better term, “randomness” across our lineups. By mixing and matching a few bats around our core across all lineups, we’re able to rule out some tough lineup decisions we may face while not getting completely overwhelmed with a large pool of players. Below I’ve outlined the pitchers, stacks, and one-offs that I’m considering incorporating into my core for tonight. Top Pitchers Mike Clevinger (CLE) I like the salary cap flexibility that Clevinger brings to the table as he’s less expensive than guys like Severino, deGrom, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw tonight in a good matchup. Outside of really three guys (Votto, Suarez, Scooter), the Reds’ lineup is lacking any sort of a punch, evidenced by their .140 team ISO against righties this season. Sunshine’s numbers are slightly better on the road than they are at home and in the road matchup he’ll have the luxury of facing the pitcher with this series being in the Great American Ballpark. Luis Severino (NYY) For his second start in a row, Severino finds himself in a great spot as he looks to move forward after a rough stretch in July. The Mets come in with a 22 percent K rate and .159 ISO as a tea, against right-handed pitching this season. With a 27 percent K rate, six percent walk rate, and 3.02 FIP, Severino is the type of pitcher that should carve the Mets up. He has a tough counterpart in Jacob deGrom putting the win in doubt slightly, but considering that the Mets never give deGrom run support, I like Severino’s chances of pulling off out a W. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather here, though as I’ll update as best I can as we get closer to game time. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) With rain in the forecast in the New York area (It’s pouring where I am, about 40 minutes north of Yankee Stadium), the game is in jeopardy of a delay and even a postponement. The easy pivot off of Severino on both sites is Kershaw who is due for a vintage performance tonight against the Giants, a team he has seen a lot of over the years. The Giants have struggled over the last two weeks with a .125 team ISO, .302 wOBA, and 21 percent K rate. On the season, San Fran has just a .135 ISO and .302 wOBA with a 21 percent K rate against southpaws. Kershaw, much like every other team in baseball, has handled the Giants over his career, especially at home. Coming off of a bad outing against the A’s it seems to perfect for Kershaw to be in a great spot tonight. Outside of Buster Posey who has hit him well and Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria who hit lefties well, the Giants’ projected lineup doesn’t seem to have much to offer against Kershaw, who could possibly be leaned on to go deep into this game with the recent struggles of the Dodger bullpen without Kenley Jansen. Reynaldo Lopez (CWS) With a lot of low-dollar options for SP2 tonight, the guy that I’m looking to lock in is Lopez at 6.3K against the Tigers. Lopez has back to back seven-inning outings under his belt totaling 10 strikeouts, four walks, and three earned runs allowed. The Tigers offense has been lacking against right-handed pitching all season long with a .283 wOBA, .132 ISO, 23 percent K rate, and 6 percent walk rate. In his three starts against the Tigers this season, Lopez has logged 20 innings (seven innings in two starts), 11 strikeouts, and five earned runs, one of which was a run let in by the bullpen. His salary allows for a lot of flexibility with bats and he’s one of the only guys in this price range to feel good about. Core Stacks Diamondbacks Paul Goldschmidt, AJ Pollock, Steven Souza I’ve been riding the Diamondbacks for a couple of days now and I don’t see any reason to stop as they head into the heat of Texas to take on Bartolo Colon and the shitty Rangers’ bullpen. Colon has had trouble against both sides of the plate this season, but the righties are the ones that have produced the most power against him. The veteran has allowed 2.56 HR/9 to righties, more specifically 20 dongs on the season. After a weekend in which I was locked in on the Dbacks lefties, I’m shifting my way over to the righties. Paul Goldschmidt, AJ Pollock, and Steven Souza are the three bats that I love here. All have good reverse-splits ability, have power, and have the ability to steal bases. We should get them all in correlating batting order spots and the chances of them getting pinch hit for later in the game is slim to none. Keep riding the snakes until they stop, which won’t be tonight. Indians Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera (FD) This just in: Homer Bailey sucks. The Indians bring their heavy bats into Cinci and will look to beat the shit out of Donger Bailey and the chances of it happening are high. Over his last 40.2 innings pitched, this gas can has allowed 63 hits and nine home runs. You can’t go wrong with any of the Indians bats but most of them are expensive. Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, and Michael Brantley are the three that I’m leaning on from Cleveland. Alonso has been all over the baseball of late, including having what would have been a three-run
MLB DFS: Rob’s Building Blocks – 8/10
In this article, I’m going to lay out the groundwork to build off in three to five entry max contests. When playing these types of contests, I find that I have the most success when I have a core, (generally one pitcher on FD and two on DK with a three-player stack and one to two one-off bats) that will find their way into 100% of my lineups. The idea of locking in a core is to limit, for lack of a better term, “randomness” across our lineups. By mixing and matching a few bats around our core across all lineups, we’re able to rule out some tough lineup decisions we may face while not getting completely overwhelmed with a large pool of players. Below I’ve outlined the pitchers, stacks, and one-offs that I’m considering incorporating into my core for tonight. Top Pitchers Blake Snell (TB) In his last start, Snell was on a pitch count coming off the DL when he faced the White Sox giving me the indication that he’s all systems go tonight against Toronto. A lot of people point out Snell’s road splits as being a wart in his numbers but part of that perception, I believe is that he’s so dominant at home that his road numbers “look” pedestrian at best which is not the case. In fact, Snell’s K/9 (11.09), K rate (29.9 percent), and groundball rate (51.3 percent) are all better away from from the Trop. Snell will be low-owned considering that people will see his recent game logs and that the Jays had a hot offensive series against the Red Sox. The fact is that the Jays lineup, deep down, is not one that scares me whatsoever, especially against a high-level lefty like Snell. Zach Eflin (PHI) Eflin should be a trendy play on both sites and most of that ownership will be tied to the putrid Padres offense and the beneficial park shift that Eflin has in front of him, along with his cap-friendly salary on FD and DK of 8.5K. The former first-round pick looks to be coming into his own as he’s having his best season. He’s posted a 22.5 percent K rate to go along with a 5.2 percent walk rate with a respectable ground ball rate. The Padres offense has been dreadful all season long, especially against righties with a 25.8 percent K rate, .123 ISO, and .285 wOBA as a team. Ervin Santana (MIN) Santana is the SP2 pitcher I’m locking in tonight on DK at 6.4K. He faces the Tigers who have struggled against righties all season long with a 22.6 percent K rate, 6.9 percent walk rate, .130 ISO, and .282 wOBA as a team. Santana has made three starts this season after spending most of the campaign on the DL. He lasted just 4.1 innings in his last outing after getting into some trouble in the fifth but in reality, he didn’t pitch badly before being pulled after just 78 pitches. Santana has had success over the years against the Tigers and specifically in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park and is simply priced to well for me to pass up tonight. Core Stacks Diamondbacks David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar, AJ Pollock Anthony DeSclafani takes the mound for the Reds in one of the better hitting parks in baseball against one of the better lineups top to bottom in the National League. Good Luck. DeSclafani, in my opinion, could become a good pitcher down the line, but right now he is NOT that guy, and pitching in Cinci isn’t doing him any favors. He has a 5.69 FIP, has allowed 2.45 HR/9, and has a 24.7 percent HR/FB rate at home this season. His struggles are magnified against lefties whom against overall he’s surrendered a .411 wOBA and 3.41 HR/9. Peralta has a 54 percent hard-hit rate over his last 10 games, Eduardo Escobar has great power numbers against righties this season, and AJ Pollock has very good reverse-splits numbers to go along with stolen base upside in the middle of the order. DeSclafani is a sinker-slider pitcher and these three Dbacks have shown to handle both of those pitches extremely well with Peralta posting a .372 wOBA, Pollock a .353, and Escobar a .378. Furthermore, Peralta and Pollock have shown good power against the slider with .257 and .235 ISO’s against that pitch respectively. The Dbacks should take advantage of the Great American Ballpark and the poor pitching of the Reds tonight and a Peralta, Pollock, Escobar stack is where I would start. Cardinals Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina Carpenter is on fire and Ozuna, along with Molina slide in as good reverse splits guys in the middle of a Cardinals lineup that will look to beat up on Burch Smith and a bad Royals bullpen. Smith has been essentially splits-neutral allowing a .392 wOBA to lefties and a .329 wOBA to right-handed batters. An outlier that sticks out if the propensity of Smith to allow the long ball to lefties (2.33 HR/9) which further emphasise the Carpenter play. Righties have posted a 48 percent hard-hit rate against Smith and Ozuna (44 percent hard-hit rate over his last 13 games) and Molina (40 percent hard-hit rate over his last 13 games) have been locked in of late. With good weather and bad pitching, the Cardinals are in play as a high-upside stack tonight. Top One-off Bats More often than not these are value/underpriced high upside bats. At times they’ll serve as salary relief allowing you to mix and match some exposure with higher-priced bats throughout our lineups. Rougned Odor (TEX) Odor is locked in right now with a .530 wOBA and .540 ISO over the last two weeks. In a matchup with Tanaka, Odor profiles well against the repertoire that Tanaka features. The Yankee righty throws his slider 34 percent of the time and his splitter 31 percent of the time. Over his last three seasons, Odor had a .380 wOBA and .412 ISO
MLB DFS: Rob’s Building Blocks – 8/7
In this article, I’m going to lay out the groundwork to build off in three to five entry max contests. When playing these types of contests, I find that I have the most success when I have a core, (generally one pitcher on FD and two on DK with a three-player stack and one to two one-off bats) that will find their way into 100% of my lineups. The idea of locking in a core is to limit, for lack of a better term, “randomness” across our lineups. By mixing and matching a few bats around our core across all lineups, we’re able to rule out some tough lineup decisions we may face while not getting completely overwhelmed with a large pool of players. Below I’ve outlined the pitchers, stacks, and one-offs that I’m considering incorporating into my core for tonight. Top Pitchers These are the two arms I’m back and forth between on FD and DK as my SP1. Tonight, I don’t have a clear-cut SP2 on DK that I love, so I will more than likely mix and match a couple of them. Mike Clevinger (CLE) Sunshine has been dealing with some horrific luck over his last four starts failing to pick up a win in any of those outings while pitching well enough to do so. Over that span, he’s tossed 23.2 innings (at least six in three starts) with 29 strikeouts, six walks, and 11 earned runs. The home run ball has plagued him a bit as he’s allowed five home runs over that span but otherwise, he’s been pitching lights out. His 25 percent K rate and five percent walk rate at home work well in his favor against a Twins team that is without two of their better hitters in Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar after trading them away. Expect Clevinger to go at least six, earn a quality start, and pick up a victory with some run support from his offense. Luis Severino (NYY) On the surface, Severino has been atrocious in his last five starts. However, much of his issues have stemmed from BABIP numbers that are through the roof, specifically in three of those starts (.500, .563, .389). He’s limited his last two opponents (Kansas City and Boston) to hard-contact rates of 26 percent and nine percent respectively after allowing such rates of 55 percent (Cleveland) and 44 percent (Tampa Bay) in his two previous outings. Also, Severino’s groundball rate has regressed back to the mean in his last two outings hovering right at 40 percent in each start. It’s impossible for me to look past this matchup against the White Sox for Severino, a team that strikes out 25.5 percent of their plates appearances while walking just 6.9 percent of the time. Severino hasn’t been this cheap on FanDuel (9.4K) all season and I’d expect him to draw a pretty good amount of ownership in a great spot. Core Stacks Indians Frankie Lindor, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso Odorizzi will see the Tribe for the fourth time this season and things haven’t gone all that well for him to this point. He’s surrendered hard-contact at a 40 percent clip over his 13.2 innings of work against the Twins’ division rival along with five home runs and 15 earned runs. Frankie is the high-dollar bat that I must have from Cleveland as he’s had success against Odorizzi this season, has a 40 percent hard-hit rate over his last 12 games and hits in each of his last five with a home run and two doubles over that span. Brantley slides in, more than likely in the two-hole behind Lindor as a solid DFS play day in and day out for one of the better offenses in baseball. His salary is not at all prohibitive and he’s as consistent as they come. The last leg that I’m locking in is Yonder Alonso, especially at the value, he brings to the table, especially on FD at 3.1K. The former Miami Hurricane (shameless plug) has a .345 wOBA and .210 ISO against righties this season. Furthermore, he’s posted a 21.1 percent HR/FB rate against righties at home and has a 38 percent hard-hit rate over his last 12 games. These three bats from the Indians offer enough salary flexibility and upside to build around tonight. Red Sox J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers The Red Sox elite offense gets a crack at career minor leaguer Mike Hauschild and the shitty Blue Jays bullpen whom they beat up on last night. J.D. has been tearing the cover off of the ball all year long with a 47.7 hard-contact rate, 33 percent HR/FB rate, and a .317 ISO (second in the league). There isn’t much to say about J.D. Xander is a good value on both sites and fits in well in the middle of the Red Sox order as one of the two shortstops I love tonight (see Frankie above). To this point, Xander has posted career highs in both wOBA (.359) and ISO (.234), both of which are fourth amongst major league shortstops. Raffy Devers is due to be activated from the DL tonight and, as usual, his price on FD is a joke at 2K. He’s fairly priced on DK at 3.7K and fits in nicely with J.D. and Xander as some salary relief. The second-year pro has definitely gone through some growing pains this season but still has posted a respectable .202 ISO and 36 percent hard-hit rate against righties. Top One-off Bats More often than not these are value/underpriced high upside bats. At times they’ll serve as salary relief allowing you to mix and match some exposure with higher-priced bats throughout our lineups. Joc Pederson (LAD) It seems that Joc has turned a corner in some respects this season by simplifying his swing and being more selective at the plate. The numbers prove that Joc has improved and he’s flourished against right-handed pitching. He’s posted a .308 ISO (.319 on the road),
MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 8/6
Weather and Park Factors Reds at Mets – Temps reaching 90 with humidity and some wind blowing out to left. Twins at Indians – Temps in the mid-80’s with some humidity. Mariners at Rangers – Hotter than hot with temps over 100. Yankees at White Sox – Temps in the low to mid 80’s, but very humid. Cubs at Royals – Temps in the 90’s. Phillies at Diamondbacks – Roof closed. Pitchers Charlie Morton (HOU) Morton is the guy for me tonight pitching in the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball with the weather in his favor, temps in the low 60’s by the bay in San Fran. The Giants have been sluggish over the last two weeks with a 22 percent K rate, 6 percent walk rate, and a .131 team ISO. Morton got back on track in his last start in Seattle after a poor showing against the Athletics and a decent effort in Colorado against the Rockies. In that outing against the Mariners, Morton posted a 33 percent K rate, 4 percent walk rate, 47 percent ground ball rate, and allowed hard contact at just a 26 percent clip. His 13.3 percent swinging strike rate was the second-highest over his last four outings after posting a 13.7 percent mark in his last start suggesting that he’s regained some command issues that had plagued him earlier in July. Noah Syndergaard (NYM) There are a couple of issues I have with Thor. First, the Mets fucking suck, meaning who the hell knows if they can give him any run support. Secondly, he’s making just his second start since July 20 after a short DL stint. Thor wasn’t dealing with an injury at all, but he wasn’t particularly sharp in that outing against the Nats and has not been generating the strikeouts that we’re used to seeing. In his last three starts spanning over 17 innings, Thor has just 11 strikeouts. One benefit that could come into play is that Joey Votto may not play in this game or at all this series. I still lean Morton over Thor at this price point, but I won’t talk you off of Syndergaard. Cole Hamels (CHC) Hamels should get a lot of attention, especially on FanDuel at 8.5K. After getting into some early trouble and elevating his pitch count in his first start with the Cubs, Hamels ended up going five shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Pirates. In a spot where Hamels should be in line for a victory facing a poor Royals lineup, he shapes up as a safe option tonight. SP2 Options Lance Lynn (NYY) I thought it was a stupid move when it was made trading Tyler Austin for Lynn at the time and still feel that way. There’s nothing special about Lynn. He’s always been “just a guy” but he’s definitely fallen into a good situation with the Yankees. The Yankee offense was silent against the Red Sox this past weekend but that won’t be the case moving forward suggesting that Lynn should get decent run support in this spot and be in line for a win. The White Sox lineup has some pop but overall they’re trash. At 7.1K on DK, Lynn won’t kill you as SP2 options are not exactly appealing tonight. Matt Boyd (DET) Boyd is another guy that’ll get you off of the, what I believe will be, Luke Weaver chalk. Boyd’s FIP in his last three outings in 1.96, 0.83, and 1.79 in starts against the Red Sox, Royals, and Reds. Over that span his K rate’s were 28.6, 28, and 25 percent with around a four percent walk rate. A major key here is whether or not Mike Trout play as he’s missed the last four games with a wrist injury. Either way, I like Boyd here but if Trout is out that’s obviously a plus…. No shit, Rob. Jake Arrieta (PHI) Arrieta has re-invented himself as a guy that has learned how to “pitch” rather than a guy that just rears back and fires. He’s the kind of guy that can give a lineup fits just as he did in his last start against the Red Sox. Over his last two starts, Arrieta has posted K rates of 25.9 and 25 percent while limiting hard-contact to less than 26 percent in three of his last four outings. He won’t blow you away with upside, but he’s good enough to provide a solid output at hardly any ownership. Arms I’m Fading Trevor Bauer (CLE) I don’t see any reason to pay up for him on either site tonight. Luke Weaver (STL) Luke Weaver chalk? No thanks. Let the “Luke Weaver people” chew on it. Favorite Stacks Mariners It’s going to be 800 degrees in Texas and Martin Perez is going to get destroyed. This game will draw a good bit of attention but with a lot of *good* hitting spots tonight, we may be able to sneak some of these guys in under the radar. Kyle Seager and Nellie Cruz both have had some success against Perez. Perez has allowed 2.27 HR/9 to righties putting Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger in good spots to do some damage. On the lower end of salaries, Mike Zunino is an option behind the plate on DK. Indians Kyle Gibson is due for a bad outing and the Indians are the team that will knock him around as they have some hitters who are hot and who’ve had some success against Gibson in the past. Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, and Yan Gomes have all had success against the AL Central counterpart in the past. Jose Ramirez is having a monster season and is coming out of a bit of a slump in a big way. Frankie Lindor has a 42 percent hard-hit rate over his last 12 games and newcomer Leonis Martin has hammered right-handed pitching all year long. There are a lot of ways to lock in the Tribe here with the top
The Fuego Pit – MLB Plays – 8/1
Fuego Steve’s MLB Plays of the Day I have to run out unexpectedly but wanted to get this up. I will fill in commentary when I get back shortly, but this should be enough to get you started. Pitchers – Best options Rich Hill Anibal Sanchez Favorite Stacks L.A. Dodgers Atlanta Braves Kansas City Royals The Chicago White Sox, or at least the righties, are going in the Fuego Pit today. They have let me down when I have played them recently and think Junis does enough to keep them down. I understand if you want to go there in a team stack, but I am not tonight. I would maybe consider the lefties, Daniel Palka, Yolmer Sanchez or Nicky Delmonico. Position plays of the day Catcher – Yadier Molina, Salvador Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Perez – value 1st Base – Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Jakob Bauers, Jose Martinez (check lineup), Justin Bour – value 2nd Base – Ozzie Albies, Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist – value on Fanduel 3rd Base – Matt Carpenter, Manny Machado, David Freese – value on Fanduel, Yolmer Sanchez- value SS – Chris Taylor, Paul DeJong, Dansby Swanson – value Outfield – Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis, Joc Pederson, Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Kevin Kiermaier, Alex Gordon – value Some people have asked for me to narrow down my choices. This can be hard to do especially on larger slates when there are so many options. I don’t want to say, here is my lineup this is what I am playing. However, I will give you a couple of examples on how to set lineups and let you fill in the rest. Hit me in Slack chat with questions and I can specifically help with a lineup. Fanduel – Sanchez, Braves, one-offs Fanduel – Sanchez, Dodgers, one-offs Fanduel – Hill, Sal Perez and Gordon, Freeman and Acuna, fill in rest DraftKings – Hill and Sanchez, Joc and Manny, Molina, Gordon, fill in rest DraftKings – Hill and Sanchez, Braves, one-offs Hit me in Slack chat between 6-7 pm with lineup questions
The Fuego Pit – MLB Plays of the Day – 7/29
Fuego Steve’s MLB Plays of the Day As usual, the Rockies game is only on the DraftKings slate. You can play them or the A’s on the other side of the ball if you want. You may actually get them at little lower ownership than a normal slate. Pitchers – Best options J.A. Happ – Welcome to New York J.A. Happ. First, he goes from a below .500 team to the second-best record in the majors. Next, he makes his first start against the team that has scored the least amount of runs in all of baseball. Not to mention he has pitched well against them as a team in the past. He has 20 K’s over 72 at bats allowing only a .181 batting average. I am slightly nervous of Sal Perez, who is hot, but he only has four hits over 15 ABs with no homers against him. I am using him on Fanduel today. Corey Kluber – I am not loving the pitching options on today’s slate. This looks like a high scoring Sunday to me. We have a few high-priced options like Kluber, Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers. Kluber is my favorite option of the three facing off against the Tigers today. McCullers has not pitched well at all recently and not well against the Rangers. Berrios faces the best team in the league in the Red Sox. Kluber himself hasn’t been great of late, but he should have a nice bounce back game against one of the worst offenses in the league. I am putting Berrios and McCullers in the The Fuego Pit today. They are full fades for me. Pitchers – Next best options; Yonny Chirinos – He pitched well in his first start and that was against the Yankees. Today he gets to face the paltry Orioles offense. He is only $5900 on Fanduel and $5100 on DraftKings where he would be my choice for SP2. Nathan Eovoldi – Another pitcher who went from a not so great team to a contender. He will make his Boston debut today at Fenway. He should have a decent game versus the Twins. Favorite Stacks Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees – expensive and popular but I like them today L.A. Dodgers – mostly the righties Nationals – mostly the lefties Chicago White Sox – sneaky I hope Pittsburgh Pirates – should be lower owned than the big boys Position plays of the day Catcher – Jorge Alfaro, Kurt Suzuki, Tucker Barnhart, Evan Gattis – value on Fanduel 1st Base – Yonder Alonso/Edwin Encarnacion, Freddie Freeman, Jose Abreu, Matt Adams, J.D. Davis – value 2nd Base – Scooter Gennett, Asdrubal Cabrera, Daniel Murphy, Jason Kipnis, Lourdes Gurriel – value 3rd Base – Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Manny Machado, Eugenio Suarez, Colin Moran- value SS – Chris Taylor, Didi Gregorius, Tim Anderson, Xander Bogarts, Elvis Andrus, Jorge Polanco – value on Fanduel Outfield – Gregory Polanco, Michael Brantley, Matt Kemp, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Randal Grichuk, George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton Value OFs – Austin Meadows, Melky Cabrera, Mason Williams Leury Garcia, Yasiel Puig, Jackie Bradley Some people have asked for me to narrow down my choices. This can be hard to do especially on larger slates when there are so many options. Not to mention I am a tinkerer and may not be set on a lineup until close to lock. However, I will give you a couple of examples on how to set lineups and let you fill in the rest. Hit me in Slack chat with questions and I can specifically help with a lineup. Fanduel – Happ, Indians, Dodgers, Daniel Murphy one-off Fanduel – Happ, Yankees, Abreu, Anderson, Moran, Polanco DraftKings – Chirinos and Happ, Rockies righties, Nationals lefties DraftKings – Happ and Chirinos, Indians and one-offs
MLB DFS: 7/28 Short Slate Breakdown
Today’s early slate features three games on both sites. What a novel idea. I’ve broken down and will mention plays to consider from each game including pitchers, stacks, and individual hitters. Pitchers Mike Clevinger (CLE) Sunshine faces the Tigers for the second time in Detroit this season with his first outing in Comerica coming on June 2nd. In that start, Clevinger went 6.2 innings with five strikeouts and two earned runs. Clevinger is among the league leaders in pitches thrown per outing and shapes up as the top play, and most popular option on this slate with a solid floor and very good upside. He’s the highest priced arm on each site but should pick up a win and pitch well enough to earn a quality start at the least. Vinnie Velasquez (PHI) As always the upside with Vinnie is sky high, especially in the strikeout department. He’s had seven outings with seven or more strikeouts this season and faces a Reds lineup that strikes out 21 percent of the time against righties including three regular bats in Geno Suarez (23 percent), Adam Duvall (27 percent), and Billy Hamilton (24 percent) that lead the team. Even in a ballpark that caters to hitters, Vinnie stands out as a high upside option with his 28 percent K rate and 3.68 FIP. Games at a Glance Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – 4:05 EST Quintana vs Mikolas Hitters to Target Cubs – Rizzo, Schwarber, Baez Cardinals – Carpenter, Pham, Martinez, Fowler, DeJong, Molina *Game Notes – Fowler has decent numbers against Quintana is a short sample size. Pham, Martinez, and Fowler are priced down, especially on FanDuel with all three price at 3K or less. Rizzo, Schwarber, and Baez all have high hard-hit rates over the last week but have dealt with some bad luck. Rizzo hit a walk-off home run the other day and Baez went yard yesterday. Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers – 6:10 EST Clevinger vs Hardy Hitters to Target Indians – Lindor, Ramirez, Encarnacion, Gomes/Perez, Guyer Tigers – Goodrum, Castellanos Favorite Stack – Lindor, Ramirez, Encarnacion *Game Notes – I love Sunshine in this spot on the road where he’s pitched great this season. The Indians righties are where I’m looking against Hardy who struggles with the platoon. Lindor, Ramirez, and Encarnacion are the top three bats for me on the slate and will bring heavy ownership. If fading Clevinger, Goodrum and Castellanos who should hit two-three are a good leverage mini-stack to consider at a low salary. Phillies @ Reds – 6:40 EST Velasquez vs Harvey Hitters to Target Phillies – Hernandez, Hoskins, Herrera, Santana, Franco, Williams Reds – Votto, Gennett Favorite Stack – Hernandez, Hoskins, Herrera, Santana *Game Notes – Votto and Gennett could be a pain in the ass for Vinnie but other than those two, I don’t see him having much trouble with this lineup as he matches up well with them. I love the Phillies in this spot. Harvey, although he’s pitched well, has allowed hard-hit rates of 58 and 43 percent over his last two starts and a .364 wOBA to lefties to go along with a 1.97 HR/9. Top Bat – Lindor Value Bat – Guyer Home Run Call – Schwarber Arm to Fade – Quintana Bat to Fade – Ozuna
MLB DFS: Pitcher Breakdown – 7/27
It’s Friday and we have a full slate of games with a bunch of studs on the mound. There are five guys on FanDuel priced over 10K and four over 11K on DraftKings (What I consider the “high-dollar” range on those respective sites). On nights like tonight when we have top-tier guys like Sale, Scherzer, Greinke, Bumgarner, Kershaw, Carrasco, Archer, etc, guys that have 50 point upside on FD and 30 point upside on DK, I have a tough time not rostering a top-tier arm on FD and at least one on DK. For that reason, I’ll keep it simple and as always give you guys the info as if I were doing the analysis for myself. There will be two sections; Top Tier and SP2 plays on DK. I’ve sorted through everything you need to know and narrowed down the options to my preferred plays rather than listing all 30 pitchers on the slate and wishing you luck like some of these other sites out there. So, without further ado, here we go. Top Tier *I’m comfortable with these four guys on both sites in any format. Chris Sale (BOS) The narrative of Sale struggling against the Twins was one that was real before he became a member of the Red Sox and even reared its ugly head a couple of times once he arrived in Boston. All of that has seemingly vanished as Sale continues to be one of the best in baseball and has figured out the Twins. Over his last three starts against them he’s thrown 19.1 innings, allowed 11 hits, seven earned runs and struck out 30 batters. The Twins, a very helter-skelter offense all year long have had serious issues with lefties. As a team, they strike out 23.5 percent of the time against southpaws which is the fifth-most in the league. To go along with that, they have just a .120 ISO and .298 wOBA; both of near the bottom of the league. Sale is close to a slam dunk play tonight with the only factor working against him being Joe West, known for being a hitter-friendly umpire, penciled in behind the plate. Chris Archer (TB) *Rain could be an issue here Archer’s numbers in Camden Yards are fucking horrific, this much I know. However, this Orioles team has been awful all season, they’ve traded their best player in Manny Machado because they couldn’t afford him after giving Chris Davis all of the money that should’ve come Manny’s way, they traded Britton, they’re talking about trading Adam Jones and others, and their manager is in the last year of his contract (thank god), as is their GM. Otherwise, all is well in Baltimore. The Orioles strikeout 24.4 percent of the time against righties have a team ISO of .161 (16th), and a team wOBA of .283 (27th), while walking just seven percent of the time. Archer, who is being talked up as trade bait himself, is coming off his best start of the season after going six innings with 13 strikeouts against a pesky Marlins team. On the surface, Archer hasn’t had a good year but once you dig in a bit more you’ll see that he’s actually been good but dealt with a lot of bad luck. His BABIP against is .347 which is astronomically high. While his ERA sits at 4.30, his FIP is actually at 3.51 which shows a big discrepancy. His K rate is 26 percent which is very solid, his swinging strike rate is 13.5 percent which is the best of his career and his O-swing percentage is 32.1 which is also the highest it’s ever been. Archer is due to regress back to the norm and he’s should produce against a Baltimore team that has basically quit. I love Archer tonight. Zack Greinke (ARI) Greinke has seen a lot of PETCO Park in his career and he’s dominated while visiting there. In 11 starts in San Diego, he’s thrown 74.1 innings, allowed just 49 hits, thrown two complete games, allowed just four home runs, and has a 1.82 ERA. Over his last three starts there, his numbers have stayed true with 21 innings pitched, 21 strikeouts, and just five earned runs. The veteran comes into this start after two dominant outings against the Rockies and Braves. Over those two starts, Greinke totaled 15.2 innings, 20 strikeouts, and one earned run which came on a home run. The Padres offense has obviously struggled most of the season ranking in the bottom third in most offensive categories against right-handed pitching including sporting the highest strikeout rate at 25.8 percent. Greinke will also have the luxury of pitching in one of the better pitchers parks in baseball. Madison Bumgarner (SF) Bumgarner is coming off of a rocky outing against the Athletics who have been beating the piss out of everyone of late. Even with allowing four earned runs in his last outing, he simply wasn’t himself as he walked six batters and last just four innings. Bumgarner gets a major park shift in his favor playing at home in a night game with cooler temperatures dipping into the high 50’s. While the Brewers offense is good, Bumgarner being a lefty should be able to handle them well as they have just a .300 wOBA and .150 ISO against southpaws. Top Tier Fade Max Scherzer (WAS) It’s simple here for me. I like Sale and Greinke more in terms of expected production and salary. I don’t like targeting the Marlins, I don’t care who the pitcher is. Max has been bad in his last two starts against the Marlins, one of which came in Miami. I mean, really bad. Over 13 innings during that stretch he struck out just seven batters and allowed four home runs. The Nats seems like a flat team overall, last night aside, and this game smells like a trap to me after they threw up 10 runs last night. SP2 Plays on DK Marcus Stroman (TOR) The
