MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/29
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Top Pitchers Blake Snell (TB) There isn’t much that needs to be said for me to endorse Snell in this spot. The park shift is great for Snell who’s been dominant at home this season with a 38 percent K rate vs just a six percent walk rate along with a 2.97 FIP. Toronto comes in with a 25.7 percent K rate, .277 wOBA, and .134 ISO against lefties this season. Plugging in Snell and moving on seems to be the easy play here. Walker Buehler (LAD) Buehler’s last four starts have been great as he’s shut down the Braves, Nationals, Reds, and Pirates over that stretch going six or more innings with at least six strikeouts over those four outings while allowing a combined five earned runs. The Mets lineup is in shambles right whether it be due to injury or just poor play overall. Don’t let the results of the Mets beating up on bad teams last week fool you. This offense is vulnerable and Buehler should have his way with them tonight. Kevin Gausman (ATL) Before being let off the hook last night by some control issues late and the piss poor Braves bullpen, the Nationals offense did not look particularly good against Max Fried. Tonight, Gausman faces them and the righty has been good at home with a 3.34 FIP, 26 percent K rate, and 49 percent ground ball rate. In the mid-range, Gausman is the play for me if you decide to not go up top with Snell, Buehler, or others. Pablo Lopez (MIA) Outside of a leadoff home run last night by Joe Panik, Trevor Richards was in cruise control against this poor Giants lineup. Lopez is coming off of a bad start in Washington but, to not many people’s surprise, he’s pitched much better at home in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. At $6,600 we can expect him to be a pretty popular play but it’s hard to argue that he’s not the right play as an SP2 tonight. In his last three home starts combined against the Cubs, Mets, and Braves, Lopez has compiled 18 innings and 19 strikeouts while allowing just two earned runs. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. Freddie Freeman (ATL) Tonight is the return of Anibal Sanchez and I expect nothing more than for the Braves to beat the hell out of him and the Nats pen after a tough matchup against Stephen Strasburg last night who was locked in. Sanchez has allowed a .401 wOBA and 2.60 HR/9 to lefties this season. Freeman has always been a Nats killer and despite a hefty price tag tonight, it’s hard for me to overlook him as my top bat on the slate. Austin Meadows (TB) Trent Thornton is not a good pitcher, no matter how many people may try and tell you otherwise. The Rays exposed him on April 12th in Toronto and lit him up like a Christmas tree cracking three home runs against him, two of which came off the bat of Austin Meadows. All in all this season Thornton has allowed a .343 wOBA, seven home runs, and nearly a 40 percent hard contact rate to lefties. Meadows comes in after homering yesterday and now has home runs in each of his last three games and has been on fire going 12-23 with three doubles and three home runs over his last five games. Trevor Story (COL) This isn’t exactly groundbreaking stuff here mentioning Story at home against a lefty. In fact, Story’s success against Robbie Ray hasn’t been overwhelmingly great, at least not to the level of success that Nolan Arenado has had against him. However, at a tough position tonight, I’m leaning towards paying up with Story rather than dropping down to a value option on the board. Ray hasn’t been a susceptible to the home run ball against righties this season as he has been in season’s past, but the fact that he’s allowed a 40 percent fly ball rate and 43 percent hard contact rate to righties this season will not play well in Colorado. Despite only a .161 ISO against lefties to this point, Story has generated a 50 percent hard-hit rate against southpaws along with a 45 percent fly ball rate. This matchup plays well into Story’s favor and it better for the price tag that he comes with tonight. Andrew McCutchen (PHI) Genesis Cabrera is slated to make the start for the Cardinals tonight and I hope this is a scenario in which he’ll go a few innings rather than be pulled after one or two in an “opener” type of scenario. At triple-A, this season Cabrera has been tortured by righties allowing 10 home runs in 31.2 innings pitched against the platoon, granted those numbers are in the band-box ballparks in the PCL. McCutchen has a .388 wOBA and 143 wRC+ against lefties this season. As the leadoff batter, there’s a real possibility that we see five at-bats from Cutch suggesting that the Phillies put up a crooked number tonight with the veteran being the centerpiece of the production. Quick Hits Favorite value bat(s)
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/27
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Happy Memorial Day which is always a good day for baseball, beer, and more beer (depending on how our DFS lineups do today. Considering that this is a bit of a different slate than normal with a lot of day games on a Monday, I’ve always found Memorial Day to be tricky. With all of that being said, it’s a very good slate of games and the weather everywhere looks to be good or very good with Chicago being the one exception. Have a great Memorial Day!! Top Pitchers Max Scherzer (WAS) Of the three arms up top (Max, Cole, Castillo), Max is the one the I have the most confidence in, mainly given the matchup. The only issue with Max this season has been the fucking Nats bullpen and a low amount of run support from the offense. Despite having a 2.34 FIP, 30 percent K rate, five percent walk rate, 16.4 percent swinging strike rate, and 32 percent O-Swing rate, Scherzer has only two wins, which brings me to my final point. At Scherzer’s price ($11,100), you really want to lock in the win from him in this spot, but the bullpen is always a liability. I think Max will take matters into his own hands today, though and give us a classic Max dominant game. Aaron Sanchez (TOR) I have not been an Aaron Sanchez fan at all, mainly because he came up with so much hype and he’s never been able to consistently be effective, mainly because of injuries. This is a tough matchup, no doubt about it against the Rays who are dangerous and can pile up runs in a hurry. However, they can also pile up strikeouts and they’ve done so 23 percent of the time this season against right-handed pitching. Strikeouts are a strength for Sanchez and if he can command his off-speed pitches he’ll be just fine against the Rays and I think he will. Chris Bassitt (OAK) Bassitt has quietly pitched really well for the A’s this season, but he’s been a bit lucky to this point, mainly when looking at his .213 BABIP against. His other peripherals look solid, though including his 30 percent K rate which is elite, however his walk rate is a tad high. This matchup against the Angels isn’t one that should cause too much concern, especially at home where Bassitt has been great in two starts. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. Matt Chapman (OAK) The park shift might not be the best but the matchup looks to be great for Chapman who is hitting the ball extremely well and his price is great at $3,900. It looks like Trevor Cahill will be starting here for the Angels and he’s been hit hard by righties this season to the tune of 2.86 HR/9. Chapman comes in with home runs in back to back days and has a .351 wOBA, .204 ISO, and 42 percent hard-hit rate against righties this season. He’s also victimized the Angels this season going 6-13 in four games against them. Juan Soto (WAS) Soto has multiple hits in four of his last six games including two doubles, a triple, and two home runs as he starts to heat up. Jose Urena has allowed a .344 wOBA to lefties this season to go along with a 45 percent hard contact rate. After a slow start, Soto has been great during the month of May with a .438 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 175 wRC+. Even if he’s benefiting from some good luck with a high BABIP, his hard-hit rate is up eight percent from what it was over the first six weeks of the season. Nick Castellanos (DET) Everyone hits when they go to Camden Yards this season and starting tonight the Tigers get to feast on the pathetic Oriole pitching. Castellanos is coming off a good day yesterday and productive series overall this past weekend against the Mets as he gets closer and closer to likely being traded around the July 31st deadline. It’s been a bit of a down year for Castellanos offensively, especially against righties as he had always handled the reverse-split well going into this season. With that being said, there’s nothing like a day game in Camden Yards against some terrible pitching to get yourself going, and at a reasonable salary on top of it. Manny Machado (SD) While the Padres had a pretty loud weekend with the bats in Toronto, Machado was a bit quiet but today plays his first game in Yankee Stadium since signing with the Padres. This opener shit is really starting to be annoying as the Yankees are the latest team to starting introducing the “flavor of the month.” The good news here is that the Yankees and their pitchers haven’t exactly mastered this routine yet and they’ve called up a kid from triple-A who is expected to be the long man out of the bullpen. Machado is a great value eligible at third base or shortstop for $4,000 and I expect a good series in the Bronx, ballpark he’s very familiar with. Quick Hits Favorite value bat(s) Jason
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/24
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Top Pitchers Jose Berrios (MIN) The White Sox head to town after an impressive series in Houston winning two out of three including beating Gerrit Cole up pretty good on Wednesday. The Twins are coming back home after a series in Los Angeles against the Angels which included a ton of home runs and “Drainage-Gate”, an event that I’ll never forget. Moving right along, Berrios toes the rubber tonight after a start in Seattle that started out promising before some runs were scored on him and his pitch count became elevated. This has always been a good matchup for the Twins ace against Chicago, especially at home. In his last four home matchups against the Sox, Berrios has compiled 30 innings pitched and 40 strikeouts while allowing just three earned runs. Chicago strikes out 26 percent of the time against righties while walking just seven percent of the time as a team. Berrios is due for a big-time start and tonight it comes at home. Noah Syndergaard (NYM) Thor has been underwhelming so far but positive regression is due to come for him and against the Tigers we should see some better results. Syndergaard has seen his O-swing percentage drop from 37 percent last year to 29 percent this year a well as his swinging strike rate come down from 13.6 percent to 11 percent. With a respectable 3.53 FIP, Thor has actually pitched better overall than his fraudulent 4.50 ERA will show. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last four starts, despite being knocked around in one of those outings by the Padres. Detroit comes to New York with a 26 percent strikeout rate, .273 wOBA, .135 ISO, and loses the designated hitter this weekend. Thor and Berrios are as close to each other at the top tonight as could be. Joey Lucchesi (SD) Lucchesi is priced well tonight in a good matchup, albeit on the road against Toronto. The Blue Jays have struck out 25 percent of the time against lefties while walking just seven percent of the time, posting a .278 wOBA, and .123 ISO. Lucchesi has pitched very well this season despite some bad luck including a .305 BABIP against and a 4.26 ERA, the lefty has a 3.33 FIP. Lucchesi has struck out 22 percent of the batters he’s faced while walking just six percent and inducing a 53 percent ground ball rate. Lucchesi has shown the ability to get hitters to chase out of the zone (33 percent O-swing rate) and generate swings and misses (10.6 percent) at a solid rate and I expect some of that tonight against an impatient Toronto squad. Drew Pomeranz (SF) There isn’t much about Pomeranz that leaps off the page to me besides his salary and park shift at home against the Diamondbacks. Arizona has been respectable against left-handed pitchers this season but they haven’t had to deal with the park shift of San Francisco enough to scare me off of Pom here. At $7,200 if Pomeranz can control the walks, which have been a bit of an issue this season, and keep the ball on the ground (he comes in with a respectable 42 percent ground ball rate) I like the chances of him pitching well in a low-scoring affair. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. *NOTE: I’m not going to bother mentioning the Rockies here because that won’t be very helpful. Obviously the Rockies are in play; past, present, and future Rockies. However, there are 14 games on the slate and plenty of bats to look at ALONG WITH the Rockies tonight. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) Goldy had an atrocious road trip collecting just two hits over six games, three in Atlanta and three in Texas which if you would’ve have predicted beforehand I would’ve probably laughed at you. Two great hitters parks and he went completely silent. I expect him to bounce back with a good homestand starting tonight against our boy Folty and the still piss poor Braves bullpen. Starting the season hurt, Folty has come back and not looked sharp like he did for a good stretch last season and it’s showing in the production he’s allowed to righties. Right-handed hitters have posted a .456 wOBA, six home runs (4.26/9), and a 46 percent hard contact rate. Again, this is over a relatively small sample size but still concerning nonetheless. In comparison, Folty allowed just six home runs all of last season to righties, so something is clearly not right here. Goldy has a 52 percent hard-hit rate and close to a 40 percent fly ball rate against righties this season with a .347 wOBA at home against the reverse-split. Furthermore, Folty throws his sinker around 20 percent of the time, a pitch that Goldy has handled to the tune of a .425 wOBA and .232 ISO over the last two-plus seasons. The Cards first baseman offers some salary relief tonight in a great spot against Folty and the Braves bullpen. Eddie Rosario (MIN) The Twins got tuned up for this homestand yesterday against the Angels and that includes Rosario who went 3-6 with a home run. Tonight he
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/22
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Top Pitchers Jacob deGrom (NYM) deGrom pitched liked absolute shit in his last start which came against the Marlins in Miami. Looking to bounce back after that disaster, Jake faces the Nationals at home, a team he has dominated over the past couple of seasons, including once already this year. In his last three starts against Washington, dating back to last season, deGrom has totaled 20.1 innings, 30 strikeouts, and allowed just four earned runs. It looked like the Mets were dead last night, twice, but they came back to pull off a come from behind win in extra innings; their second win in as many nights against Washington. It’s a tough matchup for deGrom seeing as how Max Scherzer will be on the mound for the Nats but at this salary, I like the upside for deGrom in this matchup and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him outpitch Max and earn a win. Gerrit Cole (HOU) The only reason I don’t have Cole at the top is his salary. He has one of, if not the best matchups tonight against the White Sox who are still striking out against Justin Verlander I think. Cole has been great this season, there’s no doubt about it with a 38 percent K rate to a six percent walk rate. His O-Swing rate and swinging strike rate are both up from last year; 35 percent from 32 percent and 16 percent from 14 percent respectively and the White Sox are striking out 26 percent of the time against right-handed pitching while being one of the most impatient teams in baseball as far as pitches per plate appearance go. With all of the being said is Cole worth the price tag? Absolutely. Am I running to pay for him with guys like deGrom, Scherzer, and Rich Hill (AHAHA, I’m kidding) on the slate? not necessarily. Max Fried (ATL) This kid is good. Don’t let any other clueless content providers tell you otherwise. Fried’s demeanor on the mound for such a young kid (25 years of age) and his control (5.4 percent walk rate) is very impressive let alone the stuff he has coming from the left side. At this point his K rate is at a very respectable 22.4 percent and his 54.5 percent ground ball rate has kept him out of trouble in some of the better hitters parks in the league, including at home, in Arizona, and in Colorado. Tonight he faces the putrid Giants offense (24.7 percent K rate, .111 ISO, .265 wOBA, 65 wRC+ against lefties) in the best pitchers park in baseball and is sitting at $8,500. I’m in. Daniel Norris (DET) In a game with two bad offenses, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of people look here for a cheaper SP2 option. I’ll lean on Norris in this spot at home against the Marlins who, while they don’t strike out a ton against lefties (19 percent) the other numbers are terrible with a .264 wOBA, .098 ISO, and 67 wRC+ against southpaws. Nothing about Norris blows you away, however, at $6,900 in a good park shift against a bad offense, he’s not going to kill you if you decide to save at pitcher. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. Gary Sanchez (NYY) Gary is out of his mind right now and will continue to beat up on the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Sanchez has his 12 of his 14 home runs against righties this season (eight of which have come against the Orioles) and has a .413 wOBA and .381 ISO against the reverse-split. Much like last night’s O’s starter David Hess, tonight’s starter Dan Straily is terrible. But, more specifically, he’s been hammered by righties this season allowing a 478 wOBA, 3.60 HR/9, and 50.8 percent fly-ball rate. Sanchez and the rest of the Yankees will be popular tonight but it doesn’t matter to me here. I wouldn’t look at anyone else behind the plate. Michael Brantley (HOU) Another team in a great spot tonight is the Astros, especially after a letdown performance last night against Dylan Covey of all people. While the ‘Stros have a couple of their stars banged up in Jose Altuve and George Springer, Brantley has remained a constant and has been hitting the ball well of late with a 94 mile per hour average exit velocity and 47 percent fly-ball rate over his past 12 games. Chicago’s starter tonight, Ivan Nova has allowed lefties to post a .435 wOBA with nearly two home runs per nine innings against him. Brantley’s bat to ball skills continue to be excellent and hitting in the middle of the Astros order he will continue to hit with traffic on the baseball and has flourished in such situations. With runners on, Brantley has a .368 wOBA and .213 ISO and those numbers improve with runners in scoring position to the tune of a .459 wOBA and .325 ISO. Jorge Polanco (MIN) Matt Harvey pitched pretty well in his last start against the Royals, but the Twins are not the Royals. Minnesota has been one of the more powerful offenses this season
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/20
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Top Pitchers Patrick Corbin (WAS) Corbin has faced the Mets three times already this season and has pitched well against them in each start with the best performance coming last week when he went eight innings. struck out 11, and allowed one earned run. The Mets are a trainwreck right coming off the heels of being swept in Miami as the offense has gone to sleep suddenly after a good stretch. They strike out a ton against lefties (around 29 percent) and seem completely lifeless right now. While being reasonably priced at home, Corbin should be a popular play but one that is extremely tough to ignore. Chris Paddack (SD) Paddack took a bit of a beating in his last start against the Dodgers, the rookies worst outing of his young career. Outside of that, Paddack has been one of the best pitchers in the National League and he will benefit from a very good park shift tonight at home against the Diamondbacks. Arizona has a 23.7 percent strikeout rate on the road against right-handed pitching while posting a low 7.4 percent walk rate. As far as Paddack goes, his numbers have been remarkable to this point. The Texan has posted a 28.5 percent K rate, 43 groundball rate, and minuscule 6.4 percent walk rate which may be the most impressive factor. While Paddack has an 11.7 swinging strike rate and 34.2 percent O-Swing rate, his numbers are due to come back down to earth as he’s been living pretty lucky with a .172 BABIP. However, I don’t expect a letdown tonight. J.A. Happ (NYY) Baltimore struck out 72 times yesterday as they were shut down and dominated by Shane Bieber. Happ saw the Orioles last week at home and was not overly impressive. He was also $9,500 in that start rather than 8K like he is tonight. Look for Happ to get some run support and for him to be pretty popular in the mid-range as far as salary goes. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. Eddie Rosario (MIN) The Twins, one of the better lineups in baseball to this point are second in the league as a team with 68 home runs against right-handed pitchers. Taylor Cole is expected to open the game for the Angels and will be followed by Felix Pena. Pena has allowed 2.08 HR/9 to lefties this season and Rosario has hit righties very well with a .252 ISO, .330 wOBA, and 47 percent fly ball rate against them. There has been a lot of traffic on the bases of late for the Twins and I expect Rosario to have plenty of RBI chances tonight. Joey Gallo (TEX) Gallo and the Rangers face off against Mike Leake and Seattle’s shitty bullpen tonight at home where they just completed a weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Mariners come into Texas after allowing 35 runs over a four-game home series against the Twins. Gallo has averaged 98 miles per hour of exit velocity over his last 10 games along with a 42 percent fly ball rate, 52 percent hard-hit rate, two home runs, and seven doubles. Leake has allowed lefties to post a .328 wOBA this season and I expect him and the M’s bullpen to be hit hard tonight against Texas in a good hitting environment. Trea Turner (WAS) Turner has been a pain in the Mets’ ass over the last two seasons compiling a .303 average, 13 doubles, five home runs, and 20 stolen bases over that span. Trea returned to the lineup on Friday for the first time since April 2nd and made an impact right away knocking two hits and stealing a base. As I mentioned above, the Mets are in shambles right now and that means the pitching as well. The Nats should put some runs up tonight as they are a much better offensive team when Trea Turner is in the fold. Bryce Harper (PHI) It’s back to back day now with a home run for Harper as he looks like he’s getting locked in. The weather is not great at Wrigley tonight but Harper is simply to cheap to ignore tonight at 4K. Yu Darvish looked dominant in his last start striking out 11 and walking none over 5.1 innings pitched. That’s great, but I’m not going to look at one start and say “Yu’s back”. He’s still a walk machine, still gives up home runs, and still doesn’t go deep into games. With Harper looking great at the plate over the weekend and the inconsistency of Yu and the Cubs bullpen, this is a good spot to take Bryce at a major discount. Quick Hits Favorite value bat(s) Bryce Harper (PHI), Yonder Alonso (CWS) Low owned home run Yoan Moncada (CWS) Position that is weakest/has the most value Second Base: Jonathan Schoop (MIN), Brian Dozier (WAS), Rougned Odor (TEX) GOOD LUCK!!
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/18 – Main Slate Special Edition
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted Hey guys, special Saturday edition of the Daily Diamond as I fill in for SDChickens covering the Saturday night slate which consists of seven games. A good sized slate with some good overall games to look at and I’ll cover it all below from pitchers, stacks, and my top positional bats. Weather All games play. Warm temps in Washington (vs. Cubs) and Atlanta (vs. Brewers). The Roof in Arizona should be open with mild it being mild in the mid 80’s in the desert. Top Pitchers Jose Berrios (MIN) The Mariners have been struggling of late losing seven of their last ten games and in the past two nights have been handled by Twins starters Michael Pineda and Martin Perez. Berrios will come in looking to bounce back after a horrific start against the Angels in a game where he had absolutely no in-zone command and was whacked around the yard to the tune of 12 hits and five earned runs over 5.1 innings. The Mariners, while being dangerous offensively, do have some strikeouts in their lineup which will aid Berrios who’s K’s have been down to this point this season. The bright spot is that his walk rate is down to four percent from seven percent last season and he seems like he’s just a tick off overall. This is a good spot for him to have that seven inning, 10 strikeout, one or two earned run performance that we’ve been waiting for since opening day when he mowed through the Indians. Griffin Canning (LAA) Matt Harvey pitched well last night, which I still can’t wrap my fucking head around. Nevertheless, Canning faces the same Royals that Harvey shut down last night and he’s shown some strikeout upside in his first two starts. After cruising through the minors, Canning looks like he’s here to stay with a 30.7 percent K rate in his first two starts. There are a few areas of concern though, however, mainly with walks and a high flyball rate. He’s your classic fastball, slider guy with good enough velocity to get by but like anyone else, if you leave enough pitches up in the zone and are already prone to a lot of flyballs, everything can go to shit for you quick. With all of that being said, in his price range ($8,000-$8,500) he’s the one arm of the three that interests me tonight. As long as Canning can limit the walks, I expect a good output from him tonight. Nick Margevicius (SD) If you read some of the content from yesterday, it was noted the Pirates have struggled all season against lefties, specifically in the power department while striking out a ton. Margevicius, another one of the young Padre arms comes in at a favorable $6,900 price tag but isn’t going to wow you with upside. He’s a strike thrower but not a strikeout pitcher, at least at this point, however, the K’s could bump up a bit with the Pirates aforementioned struggles in that regard. The rookie southpaw has gone at least five innings in all but one of his starts this season, will enjoy a nice home park shift, and offer plenty of cap relief tonight. Pitcher to Fade Stephen Strasburg (WAS) – Maybe the most overrated starting pitcher in baseball, in my eyes, I don’t see a reason to pay for him, especially if he happens to leave the game with a lead only to likely see the shitty Nats pen throw batting practice for three to four innings and blow it. Favorite Stacks Minnesota Twins The Twins have beaten up on most pitching staffs this season and have hammered lefties to this point posting a .357 wOBA (third-best) and .218 ISO (fifth-best) as a team against southpaws. Wade LeBlanc struggled against both lefties and righties looking back to 2018’s numbers to get a more accurate sample size… yeah. That. Sample size. While LeBlanc may get knocked around a bit, the Mariners putrid bullpen is sure to give up some middle to late inning fireworks to the team that is third in the majors in home runs. Favorite Bats: Eddie Rosario (.357 ISO, .435 wOBA against lefties), C.J. Cron (.417 ISO, .448 wOBA against lefties) Value Bats: Jonathan Schoop, Marwin Gonzalez Houston Astros The Astros underwhelmed last night against Rick Porcello who had the fraudulent Cy Young magic working against the team that has been hitting the shit out of the ball over their recent stretch of games, notably nine straight win, and who destroyed the baseball last year when they came to Fenway. I expect the ‘Stros to come out against Hector Velazquez and put up a crooked number tonight. Favorite Bats: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley Value Bats: Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel Milwaukee Brewers The Brew Crew has been rolling offensively in their last five games, four of which came in Philadelphia and last night in Atlanta. They’ve scored 34 runs over that span and should continue to swing the sticks in Sun Trust tonight with nice warm temps to enjoy and a shitty bullpen to continue beating on after putting eight runs on them last night. Gausman goes for the Braves and he’s been ok, but like I said, he’s not the primary target. He’ll give up his three to four runs (note that he struggles against the reverse split, thus righties are definitely in a spot to do damage here against him) but I expect the floodgates to open when we see guys like Josh Tomlin and Johnny Venters jog into the game. Yikes. And by the way, I’m not going to bother typing ‘Christian Yelich’ below. That would be worthless to all of you. Favorite Bats: Mike Moustakas, Ryan Braun Value Bats: Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain Positional Breakdown Catcher Yasmani Grandal (MIL) – Home runs in two of his last four games and has produced a 51
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/17
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Top Pitchers Jacob deGrom (NYM) There isn’t much to think about here, folks. deGrom who has always pitched well against the Marlins and has dominated them twice already this season is easily my top arm on the slate. While he may be expensive, locking in a shutdown arm on these big slates is imperative, especially when you consider that there is plenty of value spread around as far as bats go. Max Scherzer (WAS) The Cubs offense doesn’t scare me, first and foremost as in my mind they’re one of, if not the biggest collection of frauds in the majors. Max is coming off an outing against the Dodgers in L.A. in which he ended up pitching well on a night where he clearly didn’t have his best stuff. He struggled with his in-zone command, worked into a lot of deep counts, and still finished off seven innings allowing just two earned runs against one of the more potent offenses in the N.L. to this point. With all that being said, back home against the Cubs who are coming in after a game yesterday, which included nearly a two-hour rain delay and a series in a hitters park in which they scored just 10 runs in three games, Max has seven innings, 10 strikeouts, and one earned run, likely a solo home run to whoever Joe Maddon decides to hit seventh tonight, written all over him. Max has gone at least seven innings in all but one home start this season and has 12, 9, 7, 10, and 8 strikeouts in his five starts in D.C. Frankie Montas (OAK) Montas matches up with the Tigers who’s lineup is full of strikeouts and bad hitters, part of the reason he’s priced up to $8,800 tonight. The other reason is that he’s pitched very well this season, specifically over his last two starts, one at home and one on the road. While Montas’ strikeout rate may not be through the roof (22.9 percent), he brings with him a low walk rate, around five percent, as well as an impressive 33.9 percent O-Swing rate, 10.9 percent swinging strike rate, and very good 52 percent ground ball rate. The Tigers and their 26.3 percent strikeout rate against righties (third-highest in the league) should aid Montas and his upside tonight in a good pitching environment. Joey Lucchesi (SD) Lucchesi is in a good spot at a nice salary at home tonight against the Pirates who offensively are challenged to say the least against left-handed pitchers as we saw throughout most of last night’s game against Eric Lauer. The Pirates have a 28.2 percent K rate, 5.7 percent walk rate, .091 ISO, and .266 wOBA against lefties this season. Lucchesi has pitched very well at home this season with the exception of one start against the Rockies and ironically he’s coming off a good outing in his last start against those Rockies in Colorado of all places. Weird. Either way, with the matchup and park shift I’ll look at Lucchesi who carries a very nice salary with him. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. Joc Pederson (LAD) As is generally the case when the Dodgers face a righty, Joc is a prime bat to consider, especially against a pitcher who struggles against lefties. Anthony Desclafani has been hit hard by lefties this season allowed a .380 wOBA, 55 percent fly ball rate, and 44 percent hard contact rate. For the hardos out there that are worried about sample size, over his career Desclafani has allowed a .359 wOBA to the platoon along with a 40 percent fly ball rate. Joc, who continues to mash righties has posted a .420 wOBA, .440 ISO, a 44.7 percent fly ball rate, and 50 percent hard-hit rate resulting in all 13 of his home run. With a great park shift and matchup, Joc is someone worth locking in tonight. Eduardo Escobar (ARI) Escobar has been hitting the ball well of late with a 94 mile per hour average exit velocity and 56 percent fly ball rate over the past two weeks resulting in two doubles, a triple, and four home runs over that span. Facing Jeff Samardzija tonight at home, Escobar and the Dback lefties have a good matchup as Samardzija has allowed a .357 wOBA and 52 percent hard contact rate against the platoon this season. Eligible at shortstop and third base on DK, Escobar gives you a bit of flexibility hitting in the middle of the lineup in a spot where the Dbacks should have plenty of traffic on the bases. Matt Carpenter (STL) I could really put any Cardinal in this spot facing a piss poor pitching staff for the Texas Rangers. Carp, though, comes in at a nice value at 4K one night after hitting a home run in Atlanta and coming in with a 95 mile per hour average exit velocity and 51 percent fly ball rate over the past two weeks. While the Rangers will use an “opener” tonight, it really doesn’t matter who they throw out on the mound of late. In a good hitters park against a bad staff,
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/15
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Top Pitchers Justin Verlander (HOU) There’s one clear cut ace on the slate tonight and that’s JV who heads into Comerica Park to face the Tigers for just the second time since being traded to Houston late in 2017. In that start, which came in September of last season, JV went seven innings, struck out 10, and allowed two earned runs. Is that relevant for tonight? No, not necessarily but what is worth noting is the fact that the Tigers offense is nothing to be scared of these days and this is a very good park shift for Verlander. This is a very easy decision tonight, guys. Lock in JV and move on against a Tigers team that strikes out 26 percent of the time and have a team wOBA of .284 and ISO of .141 against righties this season. Matt Strahm (SD) Strahm is definitely priced up a bit against a good offense in the Dodgers on paper. However, the Dodger are showing that they’re still susceptible to lefties outside of a couple of guys in the lineup. Even with Strahm having a bit of a reverse-splits issue, he’s pitched well going at least six innings in each of his last four starts with seven, six, eight, and five strikeouts respectively. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game and quite honestly you can go with either Strahm or Maeda here and I wouldn’t argue with you. I’ll lean Strahm for the slight discount and for how well he’s pitched of late. Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) I’m pretty sure the Rockies are still striking out against Chris Sale. E-Rod should be a pretty popular play tonight at just $8,200 and honestly, I can’t argue with it. Does that mean that I’m overly enthusiastic about potentially using him? No fucking way. However, given the options that we have in front of us, It’s tough to look past the lefty facing a team that just struck out a million times against a southpaw last night. Make no mistake about it, E-Rod is NOT Chris Sale. But, the Rockies propensity to strike out makes him a more than viable option at his price tag. Jalen Beeks (TB) Normally, I’m not one to go grab a “bulk arm” for a team but in this case, I’ll consider because the Marlins are so fucking bad. All reports that I’ve seen point to Beeks following up Ryne Stanek tonight in the “bulk” role. At $7,600 he’s well underpriced as a pitcher who can go deep against the Marlins. Like I said CAN go deep. In his last appearance, he went just 3.1 innings against the Diamondbacks. In his appearance before that, he went 6.2 innings against the Royals with six strikeouts and a win. All I can say here is buyer beware. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) Over his last 12 games, Acuna JR. has been hammering the baseball with an average exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, a hard-hit rate of 63 percent, and a fly-ball rate of 47 percent. He’s looked much more comfortable since being moved up into the leadoff spot and draws a good matchup against Michael Wacha, a righty who has always had trouble with the reverse-split. This season, righties have posted a .374 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9, and a 23.8 percent HR/FB ratio against Wacha. In a good park in good hitting conditions, Acuna Jr. should thrive. George Springer (HOU) I’m not exactly sure who the hell is pitching for the Tigers tonight but it looks like it could be Gregory Soto who made his debut a few days ago coming up from Double-A and it went about as well as you could expect. He got destroyed by the Twins. However, if it’s not him, it’s more than likely a poor arm that isn’t ready to pitch in the majors. So, let’s trot him out there against the Astros. Great idea. Regardless of the pitcher he’s facing, George Springer has been a man possessed fresh off of winning AL Co-player of the week, he’s right back at it with back to back two-hit efforts with a home run last night. That gives Springer six home runs in his last nine games and he also has multiple hits in six of his last nine contests. It’s no secret that Springer and the Astros are in play but sometimes we have to take the obvious plays and go. Springer seems too obvious to me tonight. Manny Machado (SD) Machado continues to hurt the Dodgers as he hit his fourth home run in four games against them last night. We could easily look at Carlos Correa ($4,800) after a big night last night and a great matchup tonight, but we’ll need some value on a night where we’re likely paying up for pitching and some other bats. This is a good opportunity to use some of that value on Machado (also third base eligible on DK) at $4,100 in a matchup against Kenta Maeda and a shaky Dodgers bullpen that doesn’t scare me one bit. Over his last 12 games, Manny has an average exit velo of
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/13
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Top Pitchers Robbie Ray (ARI) While the hitting conditions might be great here, the Pirates are one of, if not the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching. As a team, they strike out 28.5 percent of the time, walk just 5.1 percent of the time, have a .092 ISO and .259 wOBA. That low walk rate should help Ray who can be erratic at times, go deeper into this start as he’s failed to complete six innings in each of his last three starts. However, over those starts, he’s struck out 11, seven, and seven batters respectively and has a 29.7 percent K rate on the season. Jose Berrios (MIN) Berrios has pitched well in each of his last four starts pitching into the seventh inning in three of those starts and allowing a total of six earned runs with 25 strikeouts in 26.2 innings. The strikeouts haven’t been there with regularity this season for Berrios as his K rate is sitting at 24.5 percent but he’s also not waking anyone posting just a 3.9 percent walk rate to this point. The Angels aren’t exactly an easy team to pick on right now, however, Berrios is one of the better young pitchers in the game and the Angels are coming off a series against the Orioles who feature some of the worst pitching in baseball. At $9,400 I really like Berrios at home tonight. Brad Peacock (HOU) Peacock is in a good spot against the Tigers who 26 percent of the time against righties while walking just 7.8 percent of the time with a .141 ISO and .289 wOBA. Pitching in Detroit, the park shift will favor Peacock in this matchup and he’s pitched well this season striking out batters at a 24.7 percent clip and limiting walks to 6.5 percent which is down fro 7.4 percent last year. One of the reasons I don’t often run to roster Peacock generally is because his ground ball rate is below 40 percent and I generally look for guys that go deep and get ground balls. However, in this spot and this slate Peacock should be considered. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. David Peralta (ARI) Nick Kingham was in and out of trouble against the Rangers in his first and only start of the season thus far. Peralta and the Dbacks, especially the lefties should take advantage of his inability to get them out at a high rate. Last season, considering a larger sample size than his one start this season, Kingham allowed a .400 wOBA and 2.55 HR/9 to lefties. Peralta has destroyed righties this season with a .405 wOBA, .268 ISO, and 42 percent hard-hit rate against them. The Freight Train has multiple hits in four of his last five games and I expect a productive night from him. Francisco Lindor (CLE) Outside of a stretch of three really good starts (two against the Tigers, one against the Royals), Reynaldo Lopez has continued to struggle at the big league level and especially against lefties. Lindor comes into tonight’s game with hits in seven straight games including multiple hits in each of his last two. Lopez has allowed a .444 wOBA, 45 percent fly ball rate, and 38 percent hard contact rate to lefties this season. Shortstop is pretty deep tonight but Frankie is the guy for me. Rhys Hoskins (PHI) Hoskins and the Phillies are back home after a six-game road trip and welcome in the Brewers who are given the task of playing after playing the Sunday night game on the road in 40-degree temps in Chicago. Fun. Rhys has been crushing the ball over his last 11 games with a 97 mile-per-hour average exit velocity, 38 percent fly ball rate, and 57 percent hard-hit rate. Hoskins has some significant home/road splits including a whopping .508 wOBA and .469 ISO at home this season while hitting eight of his 13 home runs at the bank. Quick Hits Favorite value bat(s) Jason Kipnis (CLE), Marwin Gonzalez (MIN) Low owned home run Mike Moustakas (MIL) Position that is weakest/has the most value Second Base: Jason Kipnis (CLE), Jonathan Schoop (MIN), Jurickson Profar (OAK) Favorite Stacks Diamondbacks: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte Indians: Frankie Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez GOOD LUCK!!
MLB DFS: The Daily Diamond – 5/10
*All pricing references are based on DraftKings unless otherwise noted This article is designed to give you a head start/a brief look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate from a cash game and single entry contest point of view. Obviously, you’re not going to put together a full lineup from the players listed below but that’s not the idea. The idea is to give you an early look and to point you in the right direction. Combined with all of the other articles and resources we have here at FullTime DFS, collectively we’ll have you in a great spot to cash! Top Pitchers Luis Castillo (CIN) Castillo has nasty stuff and it looks like he’s putting everything together this season. Over his eight starts, this season Castillo has a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. He’s facing a bad Giants team who is coming home after a series in Colorado in which they scored some runs but everyone scores in Coors, of course. On the season, San Fran has a 23 percent K rate, 7.8 percent walk rate, .291 wOBA, and a .162 ISO against right-handed pitching. In a great pitchers park against a piss poor offense, Castillo is my top arm on the night. Zack Wheeler (NYM) At a bit of a discount off of Castillo, Wheeler comes into tonight with 10 or more strikeouts in two of his last three starts and faces the Marlins at home who strike out third-most in the league against right-handed pitching (26.6 percent) while carrying the leagues lowest team wOBA (.264) and team ISO (.093) against righties. Wheeler has the benefit of a good park shift but not as good as the one Castillo gets to enjoy making Wheeler a close second on my list tonight. Jake Odorizzi (MIN) The Tigers offense has been putrid this season which doesn’t come as a surprise to most considering the low level of talent that they’re trotting out to the field on a day to day basis. The Tigers strike out at a 26.4 percent clip against righties while posting a .140 ISO, .291 wOBA, and middle of the road 8.5 percent walk rate. Odorizzi has been a welcome surprise for the Twins this season with a 26.6 percent K rate but still is walking more batter than he should be; close to four per nine innings. His ground ball rate isn’t as high as I would normally prefer from arms but against a bad Tigers team, I expect a solid effort and some run support for Jake here en route to a win. I prefer Jake over Eduardo Rodriguez who is the same price as I would expect more people to jump on the E-Fraud train after seeing the Mariners struggle against J.A. Happ last night. I think that’s a bad idea considering that the Mariners offense has been one of the best against lefties this season. Dereck Rodriguez (SF) D-Rod should be one of, if not the highest owned SP2 tonight at home against the Reds. Rodriguez comes in at a great price in a pitchers ballpark against a poor offense, no matter what anyone says about this Reds team, they’re bad. Overall, the Reds are 11th in the league with a 24 percent strikeout rate against righties while posting a .281 wOBA and .166 ISO. I like D-Rod much more in this spot at home, especially at this price. Now, consider that D-Rod faced these Reds in his last start and got hit pretty hard, but that game came in the hitter-friendly park in Cincinnati. Bats to Build Around My top bats on the slate. Not to say that you should force all of these guys into your lineup(s), simply said, these are my favorite bats considering a number of variables. Joc Pederson (LAD) The Dodgers were shut down by Patrick Corbin last night which wasn’t much of a surprise considering how much they tend to struggle against lefties. However, L.A. will have their top lineup in order tonight as they face Anibal Sanchez and that includes Joc Pederson in the leadoff spot. Joc has destroyed right-handed pitching this season, especially at home. He has a .405 wOBA (.436 at home), .402 ISO (.453 at home), and a 159 wRC+. Sanchez comes in allowing a .388 wOBA to righties with a 20 percent home run to fly ball rate to the platoon. With Sanchez and the poor Nats bullpen, I like Joc and the Dodgers a ton tonight. Matt Carpenter (STL) Carpenter and a few of the other Cardinal bats come in underpriced tonight against Trevor Williams who hasn’t been terrible but does tend to struggle with left-handed bats. After looking bad at the plate in his previous three games, Carpenter’s at-bats looked a lot better last night as he turned him two hits and two walks in a trouncing of the Pirates. In his career, Carpenter is 8-19 with two doubles and three home runs against Williams and being eligible at first and third base on DK with a sub-4K price, he offers good cap flexibility in a good spot tonight. Nelson Cruz (MIN) The Tigers pitching staff has been knocked around a bit lately and that includes allowing 13 runs to the Angels yesterday. Cruz comes in with a .379 wOBA, .253 ISO, and six of his seven home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. Tyson Ross, tonight’s starter for Detroit has struggled with the reverse-split allowing righties to generate a .420 wOBA and 40 percent hard contact rate against him. Ross has given up 14 hits and nine earned runs in his last two starts spanning over 6.1 innings pitched. On April 13th in Minnesota against the Twins, Ross allowed four earned runs while walking four over six innings. All the Twins bats are in play tonight but I like Cruz the most out of the bunch considering that we can expect some traffic on the bases in front
