A key piece of advice for winning in fantasy football is to be proactive, not reactive. Staying ahead of your league mates can help you identify the breakouts and sleepers before they happen. You can also win by recognizing which players are poised to bounce back, like our choice for FullTime’s Comeback Player of the Year.

FullTime Fantasy’s world-famous Fantasy Football Draft Kit is loaded with exclusive content. This includes our unique Preseason Pro series that dives deep into the minds of some of the most successful high-stakes veterans and fantasy experts in the world. Part of the Preseason Pro includes players that are in a position to rebound in 2023.

That veteran wide receiver in 2023 is FullTime’s Comeback Player of the Year…

WHO IF FULLTIME FANTASY’S 2023 COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR?

 

2023 Deep Sleeper Tight Ends

Each fantasy football season, a tight end or two will emerge from the back end of the pool. For someone cheating the tight end position, an open mind and a quick trigger after Week 1 can sometimes lead to a helpful player.

After presenting my 2023 fantasy football tight end values, here are my best 2023 Deep Sleeper Tight Ends to target on draft day this summer. 

Isaiah Likely (Baltimore Ravens)

The success of Likely in his rookie season (36/373/3 on 60 targets) almost makes him a must-handcuff to Mark Andrews. I’m a fan of Charlie Kolar (who missed most of his rookie year), so the usage of both players will be critical to securing the next tight end on the depth chart in Baltimore.

Likely fits a big wide receiver profile (6’4” and 240 lbs.) with two impressive games (6/77/1 and 8/103) already on his NFL resume. The Ravens feature the tight end in their power run game, pointing to fewer targets for Baltimore’s secondary wide receivers. Likely is the 22nd-ranked tight end in late July. In his final year at Coastal Carolina, he caught 59 of his 78 targets for 912 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE 2023 DEEP SLEEPER TIGHT END TO TARGET DURING YOUR DRAFT OR AUCTION?

To read Shawn’s favorite deep tight end sleepers…

 

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Top Five Running Back Sleepers

 

There are some strategies that advocate targeting running backs early and often. However, many other #ZERORB drafters bypass early RBs altogether. Regardless of your approach, running backs remain a pivotal focus in fantasy football.

By in large, top-tier running backs will accumulate the most points in fantasy lineups. That makes them an integral part of each and every lineup. Knowing which mid-to-late-round running back sleepers to target can make all the difference between a middling roster and a real championship contender.

Here are the Top Five Running Back Sleepers to target in your 2023 fantasy football draft or auction.

Breaking Down The Field

I researched the running back outcomes in 2022 to keep the same theme with the quarterback and wide receiver week-to-week data. Over 18 weeks, running backs scored 30 fantasy points or more in PPR formats in 26 games. Four of these scores reach the 40-point mark (Joe Mixon – 55.10, Alvin Kamara – 42.80, Christian McCaffrey – 40.60, and Josh Jacobs – 48.30). Austin Ekeler (4) and Josh Jacobs (4) posted the most impact games.

The top 12 running backs posted 17 of the 26 games with more than 30 fantasy points, compared to five by RB2s. Backs scored between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points 107 times, with RB1s accounting for 51 of those showings. They finished with a 106:67 boom or bust ratio (15 fantasy points or more/fewer than 10.00 fantasy points). The second 12 running backs had a much weaker ratio (58:100).

Austin Ekeler scores 20 or more fantasy points in nine games, giving him a 52.9% win rate in his impact ratio. Christian McCaffrey (8) and Derrick Henry (8) finished tied for second in this area. 

The highest floor ratio (76.5) went to Christian McCaffery (13 games), followed by Austin Ekeler (12) and Saquan Barkley (12), then Derrick Henry (10) and Nick Chubb (10).

After Week 10, only three back scores ranking outside the top 38 scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game (Brian Robinson – 20.50, JaMycal Hasty – 20.50, and Zack Moss – 21.10). 

Here’s a look at the top 24 running backs from last season with their highlighted week-to-week scores…

WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE RUNNING BACK SLEEPERS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?

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2023 Fantasy Tight End Values

It seems like tight ends are becoming more valuable as each fantasy season arrives. Much of that value can be attributed to the lack of depth available throughout the position. Also, many leagues have begun to mitigate that weakness by rewarding bonus points for tight end receptions.

Regardless of your league’s settings, securing a reliable weekly tight end is a huge advantage in fantasy football. And since there are so few elite options, most fantasy football managers will be searching for the top 2023 fantasy tight end values to target on draft day.

Here are the top-5 2023 fantasy tight end values that you should consider when assembling your roster this summer.

Last year, Travis Kelce (317.3 fantasy points) dominated the tight end pool. He had more than a 100-point edge over the second-best option (T.J. Hockenson – 216.40 fantasy points) while doubling the output of the sixth-ranked (Tyler Higbee – 152.00 fantasy points). Kelce had a floor of 15 fantasy points in 12 of his 17 starts, doubling the second-highest player (George Kittle – 6) in this area. Only three running backs and three wide receivers outscored Kelce in 2022 in PPR formats.

Eight tight end games with 30-plus fantasy points came from the top 12 best players. The TE1s scored between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points 17 times (12 by the top four tight ends). The other remaining options delivered just nine outcomes in this category.

During the year, there were 210 games by tight ends with a floor of 10 fantasy points. Here’s the breakdown by groupings:

• TE1 – 96 
• TE2 – 56
• TE3 – 38
• TE4 – 14
• TE5 – 6

Below the top 18 tight ends last season, there were only four games with more than 20 fantasy points – Jordan Akins – 25., Mike Gesicki – 24.9, Mo Alie-Cox – 26.5, Shane Zylstra – 25.6, and Trey McBride – 20.8). 

Here’s a look at the week-to-week scores by the top 24 tight ends in 2022…

WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE 2023 FANTASY TIGHT END VALUES TO TARGET DURING YOUR  DRAFT OR AUCTION?

To read Shawn’s favorite tight end values…

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Top 10 Fantasy Football Handcuffs

No position is as volatile or susceptible to injuries as running backs. Part of building a competitive fantasy football roster is to include an insurance policy. Targeting those handcuff running backs is a viable strategy and safety net.

With so many teams employing committee backfields, selecting your early-round running back’s direct backup makes sense. Whether you play in redraft, bestball, or in high-stakes leagues, knowing the fantasy-relevant handcuff running backs is crucial.

Here are the top 10 fantasy football handcuffs to target in the 2023 draft season.

David Montgomery (Detroit Lions)

With Jahmyr Gibbs added to the Lions’ offense, Montgomery tends to be an afterthought as an RB3 (ranks 29th) in the high-stakes market. Despite being listed as a handcuff back, he will be the early down back for Detroit with value in scoring and catches. Detroit’s running backs gained 2,795 combined yards with 29 scores and 82 catches (31.5 FPPG in PPR formats) in 2022.

Montgomery projects to be a better option than Jamaal Williams (262/1,066/17 with 12 catches for 73 yards) this season. I don’t expect as many touchdowns. But Montgomery will be more active in the passing game. At the very least, Montgomery is a cheat RB2 who should outperform his ADP in 2023.

Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders)

Gibson ended up being a fantasy disappointment in 2022 due to the emergence of Brian Robinson. He rushed for more than 60 yards in only one (18/72) of his 15 matchups while offering only two showings (7/72 and 7/58/1) with more than three catches.

Despite his shortfall, Gibson finished 28th in running back scoring in PPR formats. A new offensive coordinator (Eric Bieniemy) invites more chances for Washington’s running backs in the passing game. Gibson will be a rotational player on early downs, with most of his action coming in the passing game. Pass-catching backs tend to have a higher floor, giving Gibson RB3 status this year…

WHAT OTHER RUNNING BACK HANDCUFFS SHOULD FANTASY DRAFTERS TARGET IN 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?

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Top Five Wide Receiver Sleepers

Today’s high-octane NFL offense has led to an explosion in popularity for wide receivers. As #ZERORB drafting has become all the rage in fantasy football, young wide receivers have developed into the most valuable commodity in many leagues and formats.

It only takes one mock draft to see just how impactful young, productive wideouts have become. However, not all receivers are created equally. Knowing which young pass catcher has the potential to develop into the next elite fantasy WR1 or WR2 is crucial for compiling a championship roster.

Here are the top five wide receiver sleepers that have the potential to break out in 2023.

Anatomy Of A Sleeper WR

In this year’s draft class, many NFL teams scoured the talent pool at wide receiver looking for the next quick undersized player looking for the next Tyreek Hill (5’10” and 185 lbs.), Antonio Brown (5’10” and 195 lbs.), or even DeVonta Smith (6’0” and 170 lbs.). The goal is to find a difference-maker with the talent to force a defense to defend the whole field.

Identifying these budding superstar wideouts has never been more important to succeed in fantasy football. Here are some quick data to show the wide receiver dropdowns from 2020 to 2022:

Note: The above data is from PPR formats.

Each NFL season, there is a fluctuation of touchdowns scored either via the pass or the run. In 2020, receivers caught 871 touchdowns (most in NFL history), with a pullback to 840 scores in 2021 despite each team playing one more game. Subsequently, last season, scoring was down across the board, leading to only 750 passing touchdowns. This regression came from 15 teams tossing 20 or fewer scores. 

Also, here are the running and passing stats from 2010 to 2022…

WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE WIDE RECEIVER SLEEPERS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?

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Top Five Fantasy Quarterback Values

No position is as important in fantasy football as the quarterback. In non-Superflex leagues, QBs tend to be available quite late. However, the top-tier signal-callers can still command a hefty price on draft day.

Knowing how to appropriately value quarterbacks can be a huge edge on draft day. Targeting the best value on the board while loading up on skill position depth is a surefire way to assemble a championship squad.

Here are the top five fantasy quarterback values to target in your 2023 fantasy football draft or auction.

What We Learned in 2022

In 2022, in four-point passing touchdown leagues, Patrick Mahomes (7), Josh Allen (7), and Jalen Hurts (8) scored 30 fantasy points or more in their 48 starts. The top 12 quarterbacks posted 40 of the possible 52 impact games, with Joe Burrow (4) and Daniel Jones (3) ranking third and fourth. There were eight quarterback scores higher than 40 fantasy points – Josh Allen (40.40), Joe Burrow (44.05), Tom Brady (42.00), Justin Fields (43.95 and 42.05), Tua Tagovailoa (45.55), and Lamar Jackson (45.80 and 42.60).

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (no game in Week 17) scored 20 or more fantasy points in 30 of their 33 starts, giving them a high floor in 90.9% of their starts. Jalen Hurts finished with the highest impact ratio (53.3% – he scored more than 30 fantasy points in eight of his 15 matchups). 

Eight quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 29.99 fantasy points in at least eight games. Kirk Cousins led the way with nine, but he posted only one impact game (39.00). Derek Carr was the lowest ranking (16th) in this grouping. 

Joe Burrow had a 20-point floor in 75.0% of his 16 starts (canceled game in Week 17) while playing without his top two wideouts for the better part of six games. 

Eighty-three of the 173  quarterback scores (48%) between 20 and 29.99 fantasy points came from the top 12 ranked quarterbacks.

Here’s a look at the data for the top 24 quarterbacks in 2022…

 

WHO ARE THE TOP FIVE VALUE QBS TO TARGET IN YOUR 2023 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFTS?

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