Dongers Club 2019 Preview: Attacking Frauds
Batting Second … Attacking Fraud Players Pitchers in MLB DFS Welcome to the #2 hole in the Dongers Club 2019 Season Preview, where we dig into identifying, and attacking Fraud Players and how to avoid them as traps in DFS. So let’s first recap what the definition of a fraud is in the context of what I’m saying here … Fraud (noun) … a person or thing intended to deceive others, typically by unjustifiably claiming or being credited with accomplishments or qualities. THOSE NEW SHINY PITCHING FRAUDS This is exactly the description that comes to mind when we get into the day-to-day routine of looking at who’s Pitching and who’s batting where and in what situation for the purposes of DFS analysis. Suddenly we will find ourselves in Mid May or early June and not only are certain players 40% owned but they are being referenced as these new found elite talents that are going to be future super-stars in the league. There is this fascination among DFS analysts to be “first” much like reporters and insiders in the news cycle want to be the first one with a story to get the credit, everyone in DFS suddenly thinks that they are the smartest person in the room if they can find some young player at value and hit them before the whole world is on top of them. With all of that we get what I call the perfect DFS shit storm and a player like Caleb Ferguson is 60% owned in cash games making his major league debut on the road. Ferguson made his first start on Wednesday, June 6th at Pittsburgh. He lasted 1 2/3 Innings on his way to giving up 4 ER off 2 hits, 3 walks and striking out only 3 on 57 pitches. All of this for $7,400 on DraftKings. Ferguson would go on to make two more starts for the Dodgers going 4 IP against the Rangers and then 5 IP against the Giants (both at home). In neither contest did he A: Win, B: Strikeout more than 3 batters or C: Help anyone win a damn thing in DFS. Ferguson moved into the bullpen for the Dodgers for the rest of the year where he managed to appear in a total of 29 games and bring his ERA down to 3.49 while posting a nice 10+ K/9 ratio and gradually settling into a nice middle relief bullpen arm for the Dodgers on their way to another World Series appearance. But Ferguson is the epitome of a DFS Fraud. If you played DFS on that day and poked around the MLB DFS Industry you likely heard insane claims such as “This kid is a future star”, or “he has had serviceable numbers in the minors so far this season” or my favorite “I researched this kid all day, he did a great job limiting his walks in the minors and he’s going to be a future All-Star.” …….. It’s no shocker that the folks who were on Ferguson quickly shifted their attention to hyping up their NFL product or some other excuse as to why they couldn’t provide MLB analysis any further for the season. Picks like Ferguson are the lazy approach to picking players. Now, I know what you are thinking. Am I simply bashing every new player? At some point we have to get on these guys before their prices catch up to the skill set, no? Absolutely we do, and without looking into the Caleb Ferguson’s of the world we wouldn’t trust guys like Walker Buehler, Joey Lucchesi, Trevor Richards, Andrew Suarez, Ryan Yarborough, Domingo German, Shane Bieber, Brad Keller, etc… All arms who at some point during the 2018 season became new faces to use and trust. So what’s the difference? How do we try to identify someone like Ferguson or Jacob Faria — who was also hyped up like he was the next coming of Jesus at times in 2017 — but not miss out on the likes of Joey Lucchesi or Trevor Richards? Is Ryan Borucki good? What about Jalen Beeks? There’s a few check boxes that you should be trying to check when you hear a new name pop up and most apply to both pitchers and hitters. 1) Where did this prospect rank at the beginning of the season? Below are where some notable pitchers ranked at the beginning of the 2018 season, as per Baseball America, these guys were all in the Top 100… 11. Michael Kopech 13. Walker Buehler 27. Mike Soroka 53. Jack Flaherty 61. Brandon Woodruff 90. Tyler Mahle But out of 30 teams, there’s a good chance that one teams top prospect may not find their way into the Top 100 of a particular scouts list, and so we want to dig into the actual teams farm system to find out what the future path of the player coming up is. Domingo German was one of the Yankees better pitching prospects who was ready to come up last year. Shane Bieber was on record as having been labeled to be groomed as the next Corey Kluber and Trevor Richards although ranked as low as 18 even within the Marlins farm system had quickly been ascending up the ranks. The point here is that, we want to know about these players BEFORE they come up to the big leagues. More often than not you are going to get burned by a new pitcher who has no pedigree or hype associated with them before they arrive in the big leagues and you certainly do not need to take a risk on chalky young starting pitchers. They flop way more than they succeed. Kerry Wood aint walking through those doors. There are plenty of other reasons these guys turn into Frauds however if they do come up and appear to stick with the big leagues. 2) The Popular Organization Hype Simply put. If the player is on the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs
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