The Dongers Club – Thu, Aug 20th
SLATE INTRO I did my weather analysis too early yesterday and with lots of site migrations going on it was a challenge for me to get the update in that the ATL/WAS game was likely going to get PPD. I got this update into the SLACK channel but even then it came very late for a lot of folks. The issue here remains that both FD and DK have not built into their sites the ability for a game which never starts to unlock. I understand that they have this 2016 brain lock mentality that ownership % is so important that you cannot show player ownership and then allow someone to change off that player to another spot. Normally I would agree, but in the case where the player isn’t playing at all then the point about ownership % being important is completely lost. It doesn’t matter. The player is getting a 0. Of course you want to swap off them… It’s bad customer service and design and leaves a poor taste in the users mouths while also making the competitiveness of the product far less. WEATHER I believe we should be all clear today. This is a very good pitching slate and I envision there being only a couple automatic spots for offense tonight. So it’s telling me that our lineup construction today allows for some ole “DFS Game Theory” (a term I hate) tonight when it comes to blindly picking your pitchers. So follow along good friends, follow along… Jose Berrios He is my top and favorite arm on both sites. He has the same upside that Bieber has and the Twins are not losing this game to the Brewers. I joked last night that as Milwaukee was hitting more and more homers that we had concluded our one day for 2020 of using Brewers hitters and now we must refresh our memory that they’re terrible against RHP and all those guys who had big games last night (Braun, Avisail specifically) are going to go back to sleep tonight. Berrios has fallen into that ‘Bauer’ category that I labeled on Trevor last season when he started to see the AL Central teams far too much. Berrios is a very talented arm but at times struggles with knowing how to pitch out of trouble and so far this season he has faced the Royals twice and two other AL Central teams (White Sox/Indians) which have made him not look so great. But the swing and miss stuff was there last game and facing a team in Milwaukee which doesn’t know him very well is a prime spot to get Berrios going. Clayton Kershaw Ho-hum. Another 7 inning, 3 hit, 5 strike out performance from Kershaw tonight. The Mariners have been a little pesky and you must not come into this play with blinders thinking Kershaw puts up a ridiculous score against them. But he won’t get blown up and he won’t lose tonight. Sonny Gray I’ll make this short and sweet. When I rank Berrios-Kershaw-Gray in terms of is most likely to strike out 10 batters, Gray is #1. When I rank them in terms of who could get into trouble and struggle to get through 5 with a win, Gray would rank #3. So that’s why I am not leading with him today, but Berrios-Gray combination on DraftKings is very ideal today. Outside of the Box Trevor Williams Not only am I not looking at Bieber tonight, but I am not using the Indians bats against Williams. He’s really become a one trick pony and that one trick is that only RH bats hit him hard. The entire Cleveland lineup is full of switch hitters and the Indians haven’t exactly been the most consistent hitting team this season. In a park that isn’t favorable to RH bats (granted, Franmil can hit a ball out of Australia) we can take a gamble on Williams as a ‘darkhorse’ type SP2 on DraftKings. The thing is, I don’t know that you’ll need his price discount today though. So it’s merely a play if you are going for an expensive 5 man stack on DK. Guys I am not on. Shane Bieber – Josh Bell takes him deep. Boston Red Sox Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley Jr. This is the game of the day and the Orioles certainly look tempting as Anthony Santander continues to make his case for AL MVP honors (Psst. He won’t get it). But it’s the Boston side which I am interested in today. Baltimore has once again struggled to pitch at home this season and while I expect them to split or win this series overall, I don’t see Asher Woj keeping the ball in the park tonight as Boston looks to maybe have a little road success in a spot where they have hit well in the past. Oh look, JD Martinez might actually care about playing tonight – but don’t necessarily just focus on the “known” Boston guys because it’s JBJ in Baltimore time. Oakland Athletics Marcus Semien, Roman Laureano I don’t look at VEGAS totals when determining pitchers or hitters. Nor the odds on games. But I was shocked after I looked closer that this game has a nice 9 total. It makes sense because the inter-league games have been fairly good for offense in this weird season and Alex Young does not have enough quality pitches to sustain as a starter. CATCHER Chance Sisco … As long as Baltimore has him leading off at home and he is under 4k on DraftKings he is your top play. Austin Barnes FIRST BASE Mitch Moreland Josh Bell Austin Slater SECOND BASE Chad Pinder Jake Cronenworth This position. It blows. THIRD BASE Great position to day. Justin Turner … Normally good versus fastballs, Turner has been struggling with them this year. Today he gets Kikuchi and he will kick one out of
The Dongers Club – Wed, Aug 19th
SLATE INTRO 11 games today, both sites lock at 7:05. I have been really bad on DK lately. I am focusing to clean up the pitching plays there for everyone. They sometimes have been good but not in the right range given the bats I like and honestly trying to like a play one site versus another is very challenging with the way pricing is. It will clean up going forward. WEATHER No issues except for the fact that supposedly California is on fire and the smoke/air quality is bad. Awesome. Gerrit Cole I really thought his last start was the one where he would come out and reach over 60 points on FanDuel and quite honestly he almost got there. Today’s a far better strikeout spot so with him being at home and getting very comfortable this season he’ll likely dominate the Rays today and be a lock FD SP1 even though there are some affordable second tier options. Cole wont burn you and you can find some cheap bats on FD to go with him. He’ll beat deGrom — again! (I’m cheating because last time deGrom got scratched). I am locking in Cole on both sites today once again because there’s value in the bats. Casey Mize / Jesus Luzardo – DK Combination I don’t roster rookie pitchers making their debuts, and I am really stretching it here to allow myself to break that rule as there’s only one other current young pitcher I’ll consider it for. Mize to me has as much upside today as someone like Paddack who is coming off a bad start and is in my mind not going to break the slate. Mize says he is ramped up to go a full outing and he is one of those special arms who has the ability to deliver a Strasburg like debut performance in his first start. Chicago will strikeout against RHP at a good clip and even though he’s on the road, he doesn’t exactly have road fans to deal with or anything. Luzardo does not have a great K% upside against the Diamondbacks, but he has good ballpark on his side and he’ll not have to be forced into a rush start like he was over the weekend. His price point is appropriate considering Oakland pitchers (and young guys like him) don’t go deep. But if we’re gonna go young, lets do it with both these guys on DK. If Luzardo is out because of air quality then on DK consider Pablo Lopez … Outside of the Box Lance Lynn Lynn is your pivot away from Paddack in a game that Texas will sneak up and win today. Lynn struggles with LH bats and the Padres bats are Cronenworth, Girsham and Hosmer. So yeah, Hosmer might be a problem but otherwise, Lynn will have a very solid performance and makes a nice low owned DK play today. Guys I am not on. Chris Paddack Tyler Glasnow – What? No. deGrom – Prefer Cole given deGroms injury challenges and I KNOW the Yankees will win tonight, cant say that about the Mets. Washington Nationals Trea Turner, Carter Kieboom, Juan Soto, Luis Garcia Happy Trea Turner day. They will win running away tonight. Milwaukee Brewers Ryan Braun, Justin Smoak, Keston Hiura, Christian Yelich, Manny Pina Sometimes you gotta write up a bad offense in a great spot and Milwaukee/Minnesota tonight is one of my favorite landing spot games. Coming off 8 innings of not hitting anything Maeda threw they get Rich Hill making his 2020 debut in Target Field tonight. If you want to roll with Cole on DK, the Brewers are in play. Good ole Jedd Gyorko batting cleanup at $2200 on FanDuel today. Teams to keep on your radar LA Dodgers: The only thing that could make me consider these punks is if they got to face a RHP who throws nothing but fastballs. And son of a gun that’s exactly what they have today in Taijuan Walker. Loaded bonus is the Mariners bullpen. The only downside here is that they’re heavy in prices but worth it when they rake. Minnesota Twins: This is better spot for Sano than Cruz or Garver IMO. Sano and Buxton are the plays. Oakland Athletics: Canha, Olson, Chapman Atlanta Braves: Ozuna/Duvall CATCHER Yan Gomes Austin Barnes FIRST BASE Ryan Braun Miguel Sano Eric Thames Matt Olson – Oakland if they play will get to Kelly, just dont know that you need them today with some value spots elsewhere. SECOND BASE Rougned Odor Luis Garcia Garrett Hampson THIRD BASE Nolan Arenado Carter Kieboom Justin Turner Jedd Gyorko – Ugh… But yeah, he’s got a good spot today SHORTSTOP Gimme all the Trea day. Trea Turner Corey Seager OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Outfield isnt great today, get yourself one stud, two values and load up on Cole. Juan Soto Roadie Bellinger Christian Yelich Avisail Garcia Outfield – Tier 2 Mark Canha George Springer Kyle Tucker Outfield – Value Adam Duvall Adam Eaton Trea Turner – SS – Nationals – Chairman of the Dongers Club Ryan Braun – 1B – Brewers Avisail Garcia – OF – Brewers Nolan Arenado – 3B – Rockies Roadie Bellinger – OF – Dodgers Yan Gomes – C – Nationals Rougned Odor – 2B – Rangers Mark Canha – OF – Athletics BONUS ………………….. Adam Duvall – OF – Braves
The Dongers Club – Tue, August 18th
SLATE INTRO So much for me starting things off with “hey, we have 15 games and no 7 inning games and everything seems fine”. Royals and Reds game is PPD to tomorrow out of caution and that removes a good
The Dongers Club – Mon, August 17th
SLATE INTRO Update – Ignore everything I wrote below about this slate not having any site issues. FanDuel is absolutely clueless as they are releasing some update today to sync betting accounts for users in PA and NJ and it
The Dongers Club – Sun, August 16th
SLATE INTRO So here’s something you don’t see every day. It looks like DK might have hired FD people to run their site because they only went with 8 games on the MAIN slate today (I have a theory on
The Dongers Club – Sat, August 15th
SLATE INTRO I’ll spare you the entire rant I have about the incompetence we see daily with DK and FD and just say that FD at least made right by their users with full refunds due to site outages yesterday. They still have 100 other issues that are just inexcusable but at least they did right there. 7PM lock (one of my big gripes for today) with only a few games on it. WEATHER I just want to point out KC and MIN could have very easily played last night. That is all. Washington @ Baltimore – Large PPD Risk here. This slate sucks and off last night and all the issues I outlined above (which was only 50% of them) I am almost tempted to not even play this horrific slate of games. Fear not, I am playing… Walker Buehler Walker is VERY close to breaking out with a huge game and I have already looked ahead at his next projected start. We will be 100% on Buehler then. But today I don’t think he has a smash game, however he’ll be good relative to the rest of the arms going on this slate. James Paxton Boston has more dangerous hitters vs LHP for the first time in a while — but that’s mostly due to their team sucking offensively. Paxton had great velocity in his last start and so naturally he’ll probably die somewhere in the third inning tonight and go on the IL. But if he manages to not injure himself, he’s gotta be on your radar. Outside of the Box Asher Wojciechowski There’s not much in the way of getting weird tonight and lots of the Nationals should be chalky if the game plays. This is a leverage pivot where I don’t see Washington doing much outside of Soto/Thames being logical plays for obvious reasons. Guys I am not using Patrick Corbin … Like the Os to win. Cristian Javier … Too shaky. Oakland Athletics Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Khris Davis Park is playing better for homers this season and mid-day game should help that out as well. Gausman is coming off a really good start but the Athletics hammer split finger pitches, specifically Canha-Olson-Chapman and Piscotty. Like Khris Davis as a good value HR play. San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers San Diego has to be a top betting play today. They got shut down last night in what was a very snooze-fest type game but it’s Tatis-Machado-Myers who are mashing LHP this season and should have a great game in a park where you simply don’t see LHP do well. Houston Astros Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman Looks like at home they have their heads out of their behinds and are beating up on the lowly Mariners. Seattle has a terrible pen and Margevicius is a profile Houston has done well against. CATCHER Martin Maldanado Austin Hedges FIRST BASE Renato Nunez Yuli Gurriel SECOND BASE Jose Altuve Ketel Marte THIRD BASE Pay up here Matt Chapman Alex Bregman Manny Machado SHORTSTOP Pay up here as well… Trevor Story Fernando Tatis Jr. Gleyber Torress – Signs of life. Maybe he is only good without Stanton/Judge? OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore George Springer Mike Trout Joey Gallo Kole Calhoun Outfield – Tier 2 Yordan Alvarez Starling Marte Stephen Piscotty/Mark Canha Thomas Pham Outfield – Value Khris Davis Wil Myers BEST CONTEST REFRESHER These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds: 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it’s the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what’s the point? These type of contests usually aren’t as common and they’re a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They’re smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these. Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better. Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren’t about making money. Sorry. Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you’re in a slump, play one of these. Matt Chapman – 3B – Athletics – Chairman of the Dongers Club Trevor Story – SS Joey Gallo – OF Wil Myers – OF Jose Altuve – 2B George Springer – OF Renato Nunez – 1B Austin Hedges – C BONUS ……………….. Cody Bellinger – OF
The Dongers Club – Fri, August 14th
SLATE INTRO I consider yesterday a great success. You know why? We got the dumb Mookie 3 HR game out of the way on a spot where nobody cared because everyone in the world had a gazillion points. Even those
The Dongers Club – Thu, August 13th
SLATE INTRO Thursday’s are the worst. Today only has six games scheduled for all of MLB, largely due to the Cardinals being morons in regards to COVID but also because MLB built today in as a day off for everyone
The Dongers Club – Wed, August 12th
SLATE INTRO Mid week shorter slate with only 8 games on the docket tonight. For those who want the early slate action of Royals-Reds, Coors Field and the Blue Jays in Buffalo, go time travel back to 3PM and set
The Dongers Club – Tue, August 11th
SLATE INTRO Thank you Oakland. Thank you. The Athletics absolutely came through late last night unlike the Dodgers. So in today’s “Dongers Club Thought of the Day” we find that there’s a rumor going around about humidors being placed in Boston, Seattle and NY Mets stadiums for this season and it’s having an impact on those games. Nonsense. First off, it’s just a rumor and it’s spun off from an article which is wondering why hitting is down. As you know, we already have been ahead of this on the theories (even though I was wrong in saying the hitting would be coming out stronger than pitchers to start). Bullpens was one thing, but the other is the incredible BABIP drop we have seen and there was some good logic put into why that is happening from Sam Fuld of all people — who is now the “Director of Integrative Performance” for the Phillies. He had this to say about the impact of shifts and defensive alignments … Quite accurate. Coming into last night Jon Gray had an insane BABIP through his first two games compared to prior seasons and that like always is the case with BABIP started to adjust. I sense things will adjust in many places and we’re starting to see offense go up – although my personal opinion is that we don’t quite have an explosion DFS slate today. Keeping in line with the nugget of the day (and week really), here’s who in my mind is below and above expectations offensively so far this season. These are based off my expectations, which I trust more than anyone else’s. Teams exceeding expectations … Orioles — Specifically they have a .285 BABIP and only 21% K rate. Both will change negatively for them. Cubs Mets Teams below expectations … Indians — Until Lindor moves out of the 3 hole this will remain true. Blue Jays — About to sky rocket Diamondbacks — Also climbing very rapidly Twins — Mitch Garver having a massive back to earth season and Josh Donaldson not being healthy have hurt them. They’ll be fine though. I am also very heavily looking at pitchers who have so far exceeded expectations as guys who are about to get lit up and guys who are far below expectations as being good players to take chances on. P.S. BABIP is vastly overrated when viewed by itself but it’s relevant in the context of the quote from the article above so that is why I referenced it. WEATHER Humid but quiet and clear of any PPD risks So far through one game the roof opening in Texas most definitely has helped out hitters, but the ball still tends to die a little bit and the wind almost has no impact. Tonight features quite a few potential options, but what drives me nuts is the pricing on these guys is almost all identical. So you would think just take the best one and move on right? Well, not so easy…. Zack Wheeler It certainly feels like this is the first time all year we have been able to consider Wheeler in his new Phillies uniform. He has made two starts in the home ballpark (one as the road team) against the Marlins and the Yankees and he’s carried things over quite well in both games. The Orioles lineup has scattered annoying home runs in it at times, but despite Wheeler having very low K totals in his first two games, this is the spot to see a boost from him as the back end of their lineup should be SO-SO-SO-SO….. Max Scherzer I did not want to use him initially but seeing how I was not heavy on Coors Field tonight and didn’t see stacking heavy on other teams I don’t see why I don’t just play Max + Zack Wheeler on DK and then mix in some value bats (i.e. Tampa) elsewhere. The price difference isn’t that much either and Max going 6 innings and getting you 9 or 10 strikeouts isn’t asking for much. He’ll give you a high floor and we can focus then on mixing the CORE bats with value bats effectively to day. Max bounces back after that 1 inning game. He’s fine but won’t dominate with an insane score. Mike Minor Game log watchers will see that Mike Minor had two insane games against the Mariners last season, but their lineup has changed enough to throw some of that out. I still believe this ballpark is pitcher friendly even with the roof open and will go back here again without concern. Minor’s price on FD today is extremely cheap for the upside he brings. Outside of the Box Zac Gallen Nobody will have him and I think that’s a mistake. The Rockies have just seen about 5 straight games facing a LHP and now will get to face one of the best underappreciated arms in the NL West. Not only has he managed the Rockies in the past, Gallen has faced three teams this season and thrown 16 IP, allowed 5 ER and struck out 21 batters. Those three teams??? Padres, Dodgers and Astros. Not exactly cupcake lineups to walk through. Gallen’s proven enough and while he probably does give up a solo HR to Daniel Murphy, he will still pitch better than expectations given that he is in Coors tonight and Colorado can still produce favorable strikeout upside. Cheapest SP on the board worth using: Marco Gonzales Guys I am not using Ross Stripling … Seeing the same lineup two starts in a row. Fade for that reason to me. But logically he makes sense. Dylan Bundy … Sometimes you just have to pass on a game entirely and not provide a take on a player. That’s what I am doing here. No comment. There’s about half a dozen teams I could mention as oh hey, they probably do well, here and there