Scouting The NBA – 10/23/17
Plays of the Day Value: Dillon Brooks followed up his breakout game with a solid line (9 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, steal, block) over 32 minutes against the Warriors despite battling foul trouble. Clearly the rookie’s role is secure ahead of a matchup against similarly fast-paced Houston. Fade: James Harden is quite expensive once again and might not be worth the money in a brutal matchup against the defensively sound Grizzlies. He’s averaging 19.2 PPG in his career against Memphis and will see tons of attention in PnR sets while elite defender Marc Gasol prevents him from throwing easy lobs to Clint Capela for assists. Point Guards Steph Curry – (8,700 DK/9,200 FD) – He’s far more appealing at a very reasonable price tag on DK, where you also get a bonus for each 3PTM. Curry really started to heat up late on his way to a game-high 37 points on 9-of-17 FG shooting (6-of-11 from 3PT range) in a loss at Memphis on Saturday and that was enough for him to exceed value. He remains quite cheap ahead of a matchup against undersized guards J.J. Barea and Yogi Ferrell or a hobbled Dennis Smith Jr. (knee), making the former MVP well worth the investment. Mike Conley – (7,700 DK/7,900 FD) -With Patrick Beverley in a Clippers uniform and Chris Paul (knee) on the shelf, Houston’s soft perimeter defense is much more vulnerable and a capable PG like Conley should carve them up in a fast-paced contest. Houston ranks 29th in opponent’s 3PT shooting (.440%) and has given up the third-most APG (24) in the NBA thus far, so Conley will likely find shooters all evening while improving on his own scoring line after struggling with his shot in a win over Golden State on Saturday. Potential Value Jerryd Bayless – (4,000 DK/4,300FD) – Bayless is getting starters’ minutes while rookie Markelle Fultz learns the ropes and is making the most of his opportunities thus far. Longshot Reggie Jackson – (5,800 DK/6,800 FD) – Jackson is still a bit underpriced given his high-usage role as a creator for the Pistons. Shooting Guards Bradley Beal – (7,300DK/8,000FD) – The Wizards offense clearly runs through Wall and Beal, while the latter remains the more affordable at a more difficult position to fill. He’s dropped 25 points in consecutive games to open the season and is surprisingly contributing defensively with 10 boards, 4 blocks and 3 steals during that span. Tonight he’ll face a Nuggets team that’s allowed the third-most FPPG (42.72) to opposing SGs over the last two seasons and Beal averaged 24.5 PPG over two meetings with Denver last year. At the very least, he’s a high-floor play worth deploying in cash games. J.J. Barea – (5,000DK/5,000FD) – He’s not a great consideration and a stacked PG position on FanDuel tonight, so perhaps Wes Matthews ($4800) is the preferred choice at SG on FD, while Barea can plug into your lineups at either guard spot on DK. The Mavs are banged up with Seth Curry (leg) out, while Dennis Smith Jr. (knee) and Devin Harris (personal) are questionable, leaving Barea and Yogi Ferrell to log the bulk of minutes in the backcourt. Ferrell is getting more run, but the veteran is far more trustworthy in a matchup against the defending champs since he’s so experienced and never backs down from a challenge. With 28 points, 13 dimes and 4 3PTM over 2 appearances since Smith Jr. became inactive on Friday, Barea’s established a solid floor. Potential Value Marco Belinelli – (3,900 DK/3,900 FD) – Belinelli is a sharpshooter, who just needs an opportunity to fire away and the Hawks are giving him one this season. Longshot Devin Booker – (6,800 DK/7,200 FD) – Booker has tremendous upside in a battle between inept defensive teams out in Phoenix, and he could lead a Suns team that will rally around an interim coach after Earl Watson’s quick firing. Small Forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo – (10,900 DK/12,200 FD) -Giannis is leading the NBA at 38.3 PPG and filling up the stat sheet as per usual with 29 boards, 15 assists and 8 steals (also a league best) through 3 games. He was clutch down the stretch in a win over Portland on Saturday and faces a Hornets team tonight that will be without top defender Nic Batum (elbow) and young wing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (personal). Antetokounmpo averaged 20.3 PPG on 57.8% FG shooting over 3 meetings against Charlotte with Batum in the lineup last year and Charlotte’s struggling to defending opposing centers so far, indicating a lack of length that will make it tough to stop the rangy and versatile young stud. Dillon Brooks – (4,600 DK/4,400 FD) – Brooks continued his solid NBA debut by fearlessly attacking the rim, defending and going toe-to-toe with the defending champions to help Memphis earn a home win over Golden State on Saturday. Grizzlies HC David Fizdale is giving him such steady run because the rookie’s been such a pleasant surprise and Brooks followed up his breakout game with a solid line (9 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, steal, block) over 32 minutes against the Warriors despite battling foul trouble. Clearly his role is secure ahead of a matchup against similarly fast-paced Houston. Potential Value Kelly Oubre Jr. – (4,200 DK/5,300 FD) – Oubre is often the first man of the bench for Washington and he’s seeing heavy usage with the Wizards second unit. Longshot Tobias Harris – (6,200 DK/6,800 FD) – Harris bounced back in a plus matchup against the Knicks on Saturday and he’s in an even better spot tonight at home against the Sixers. Power Forwards Ben Simmons – (7,700 DK/8,000 FD) – Simmons and Giannis are both pricey on FanDuel (and only available as PFs) for good reason, as they’ve been consistently piling up peripheral stats and can’t shoot jumpers anyways, so there’s no real concern about a cold shooting night destroying their value. The Sixers rookie is averaging 15.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 6 APG
Jaguar Lou’s Cash Play’s – 10/21/17
PG D.J Augustin – 3,000 FD & 3,100 DK Okay, so this is more of a risky cash play but at such cheap salaries, rostering D.J Augustin allows for flexibility when making the rest of your lineup. Elfrid Payton sprained an ankle last night and will be benched for tonight’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With Derek Rose doubtful for tonight’s game, Augustin will be matching up against another back-up point guard, Jose Calderon – a matchup I’m not afraid of. The over-under in this game remains at 215 despite the absence of both starting point guards. My only worry is that Orlando will be blown out – Vegas has Cleveland at 11.5-point favorites. Despite Vegas’ line, I believe Orlando makes this a game factoring in the mismatch at point guard. D.J Augustin is a younger, faster and overall better player than Jose Calderon, if given the minutes I expect Orlando’s backup point guard D.J Augustin to capitalize off increased usage/playing time and exceed value tonight at minimum salaries around the industry. **Monitor Aaron Gordon’s injury, if he’s out usage goes through the roof for Augustin, Vucevic and Fournier – I have no problem playing all three if Gordon is ruled out** Other Cash PG Option(s): Kyle Lowry (If DeRozan is out), Eric Bledsoe & Mike Conely SG Norman Powell – 5,000 FD (Not on DK slate) **Play contingent on DeMar DeRozan not playing (Illness GTD)** DeMar DeRozan is the safest shooting guard play on the slate as he matches up against the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers have had trouble guarding opposing shooting guards so far, this season, allowing 45 Fan Duel points to Beal in their first game of the season. If DeRozan is out due to illness lock and load Norman Powell (AND Lowry for that matter) The absence of DeMar DeRozan would mean increased usage rates for the guard positions and considering how poor the 76ers play against opposing point guards/shooting guards, fantasy goodness is likely. The Toronto Raptors are favored by 9.5 points in a 217 over-under. Other Cash SG Option(s): Evan Fournier & Victor Oladipo SG/SF Wesley Matthews – 5,400 FD & 5,200 DK Wesley Matthews will be matching up against James Harden all night against a “Chris Paul-less” Houston Rockets team. Since Chris Paul’s injury it should come as no surprise that James Harden has taken control of Houston’s offense. With these added responsibilities, I am expecting Wesley Matthews to significantly benefit on the defensive side of the court with rebounds, steals and blocks. While I expect Harden to put up the usual, in the process, Wesley Matthews should benefit from the fact that he’s the only Maverick that can guard James Harden – a player that will be on the court for 35+ minutes. Matthews is very capable and involved on the offensive side of the court as well. Expect Wesley Matthews to slowly but surely reach value in the 33+ minutes I’m expecting him to play. The Dallas Mavericks are underdogs at +12 with a 215 over-under. Other Cash SF Option(s): Kevin Durant & Lebron James PF Kristaps Porzingis – 8,600 FD & 7,900 DK The Knicks are favored by 2 in a 206 over-under for their Home Opener against the Detroit Pistons. Madison Square Garden will be electric (or as electric as it could get considering the Knicks stink) and Porzingis will want to show up for the Knicks fans tonight. Kristaps Porzingis matches up against Tobias Harris, a 6’9’’ tall 235 lbs power forward. Kristaps Porzingis is a 7’3’’weighing 240 lbs and has a killer three-point shot. In my mind, there’s no question Porzingis will win this matchup. With a 206 over-under, Porzingis will run this offense benefiting off points, rebounds, blocks and steals – a variety of stats allowing me to project a 35+ FD point floor with a 50-point ceiling. Other Cash PF Option(s): LaMarcus Aldridge C Kevin Love – 7,600 FD & 7,500 DK Kevin Love is a safe play on tonight’s slate for a reasonable salary. The only thing that worries me about this play is the blow out potential but I have no doubt that if given the minutes Love will produce! With no real point guard tonight, this offense will be running through Lebron James and Kevin Love. I don’t think / I know Calderon won’t be the GPP pick of the night, so where does Vegas have their 113-point implied team total coming from? It’s no secret! Lebron James and Kevin Love will be putting the team on their backs and exploiting an Orlando Magic team that is NOT known for their defense, racking up all the fantasy goodness. Invest in shares of Kevin Love and LeBron James, just do it! Other Cash Center Option(s): Clint Capella
Jaguar Lou’s Cash Plays – 10/20/17
Point Guard PG D’Angelo Russell – 8,000 FD & 7,300 DK D’Angelo Russel will be running a Nets offense that is favored in the highest over-under on the slate. Between his favorable matchup with Elfrid Payton and his prominent role in Brooklyn’s offense, I’m expecting a safe 35 FD point floor with a ceiling of 50. With an over-under of 226.5, Vegas’ is expecting this to be a back and forth shootout, who better to benefit from this type of game than D’Angelo Russell – a long range, three-point specialist who thrives in the transition game. The Brooklyn Nets are favored at -1.5 with a 226.5 over-under. Other Cash PG Option(s): Elfrid Payton & Eric Bledsoe Shooting Guard SG Victor Oladipo – 7,100 FD & 6,900 DK With Myles Turner in the NBA concussion protocol, the Indiana Pacers will need to find a way to compensate for his massive offensive presence. Two players I believe will benefit from the absence of Myles Turner are Victor Oladipo and Thaddeus Young. Victor Oladipo had an impressive fantasy performance in his first game with the Pacers posting 22 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. Now, without Turner, Victor Oladipo will be depended on much more and should see an uptick in usage. I’m predicting a 25+ point night with 5+ assist/rebounds paired with 3+ steals and/or blocks – I’m expecting a big game for Victor Oladipo. The Indiana Pacers are underdogs at + 5 with a 224 O/U. Other Cash SG Option(s): Devin Booker Small forward SF T.J Warren – 5,200 FD & 5,000 DK With a 218 over-under as a 3-point favorite, the Phoenix Suns look to improve on their horrific first game. T.J Warren benefits off almost every stat as he is a talented all-around player. With Alex Len limited and Alan Williams out, the Suns big man depth is diminishing – T.J Warren is a Forward that can help with that problem. I see him getting extended minutes and helping the Suns take advantage of a Lakers team that is on the back end of a back to back. Other Cash SF Option(s): Robert Covington Power Forwards PF Thaddeus Young – 6,300 FD & 5,800 DK Thad Young is the other player who should benefit from the absence of Myles Turner. Besides Domantas Sabonis, Thad Young is Indiana’s only other big man – and between the two, he’s the only one capable of putting up real fantasy points. Thad Young will benefit from more rebounds and shot attempts without Myles Turner. Assuming the game stays close, this could be a great game stack, investing in shares of players on both Indiana and Portland. The Indiana Pacers are underdogs at + 5 with a 224 O/U. Other Cash PF Option(s): Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Center C Nikola Vucevic – 8,400 FD & 7,600 DK Nikola Vucevic had a great showing in his first game of the season posting 19 points, 13 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks and 2 steals against Hassan Whiteside and the Miami Heat. Vucevic will matchup against Timofey Mozgov tonight in the highest over-under on the slate at 226.5. Aaron Gordon is a GTD, if he’s out, this could potentially be a massive game for Nikola Vucevic. Even with Gordon playing, I will be investing in shares of Vucevic simply because of his usage in the highest over-under of the night. Nikola Vucevic exhibits a safe floor while simultaneously carrying GPP upside at reasonable prices around the industry. The Orlando Magic are slight underdogs at +1.5 in the highest over-under of the night at 226.5. Other Cash Center Option(s): Al Horford
Scouting The NBA – 10/20/17
Plays of the Day Value: Trevor Booker went for 20 points and 10 boards over just 27 minutes off the bench in a shootout at Indiana on Wednesday and draws another plus matchup tonight against a Magic team that’s given up the eighth-most FPPG (47.6) to opposing PFs over the last two seasons. Fade: Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler both struggled for the new-look Wolves on Wednesday and they won’t find the sledding much easier tonight against Utah’s reigning top-ranked defense. Towns will face off with Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and might not be worth his lofty price tag. Point Guards Elfrid Payton – (7,300 DK/7,500 FD) – Tonight and likely for the rest of the season, you’re going to want to target the Nets defense relentlessly. Brooklyn led the league in pace while ranking 29th in defensive rating last year and is off to a similar start after coughing up 140 points to the Pacers on Wednesday. A whopping eight different players scored in double figures for Indy and if the Magic duplicate that spread production, Payton will almost certainly flirt with double digit assists and perhaps rebounds as well. Dennis Smith Jr. – (6,600 DK/6,500 FD) – FanDuel quickly adjusted the rookie’s price tag after starting Smith as a true value play and watching him post the first point-assist double double in a rookie debut since Jason Kidd. He’s being forced into a starring role for a Mavericks team that struggled to find offense last year and is without Seth Curry (leg) for the first couple weeks of this season and Smith Jr. should keep rolling tonight against a Kings team that ranked 25th in defensive rating last season. Potential Value Terry Rozier – (4,200 DK/4,600FD) – Rozier is one of the best per-minute players on the Celtics through two games and a candidate to see heavy run against the guard-heavy Sixers tonight. Longshot Dennis Schroder – (7,600 DK/8,100 FD) – Schroder attempted 26 shots from the field in his first game of the year and appears to be the Hawks primary offensive weapon. Shooting Guards Devin Booker – (7,000DK/6,700FD) – A pure scorer with little upside in terms of peripheral stats, Booker should still be able to get enough buckets to meet or exceed value in this matchup. He mildly productive during the worst loss in Phoenix franchise history two nights ago, managing 12 points over 27 minutes and averaged 22.8 points per 36 minutes last year, which is closer to what his playing time should be with the Suns (-3) favored at home and the Lakers on the second half of a B2B set. Booker averaged 25 PPG on 46.9% FG shooting over 4 meetings with the Lakers last year and faces an inexperienced backcourt led by an apparently hobbled Lonzo Ball. Jaylen Brown – (5,500DK/6,200FD) – Brown still exceeded value with 18 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists despite fouling out over 28 minutes in a tough matchup against the lengthy Bucks on Wednesday. Now he gets the vulnerable Sixers defense and an opportunity to play a full slate of minutes while piling up peripheral stats against a team that turned it over the most times per game (16.7) in the NBA last year. The Celtics rotation isn’t very deep with Gordon Hayward (ankle) done for the season and Marcus Morris (knee) still out, so JB could be looking at closer to 40 minutes this evening. Potential Value Buddy Hield – (5,200 DK/5,000 FD) – Hield is likely to see heavy usage for a Kings team that’s definitely rebuilding around him and young big man Willie Cauley-Stein. Longshot Terrence Ross – (4,300 DK/5,100 FD) – Ross is a good fit in Orlando’s system and he faces a Nets team that’s been providing DFS gold for the past couple of seasons. Small Forwards LeBron James – (10,500 DK/10,900 FD) – Despite their impressive season openers, I’ll take LeBron over Giannis Antetokounmpo in this matchup since he’s more of a legitimate triple-double threat with consistent assist numbers. Now that Kyrie Irving is out of the picture, LeBron is on a mission and back to playing like a true point forward and he . He averaged 27.3 PPG on 52% FG shooting over 4 meetings with the Bucks last year and should do his part to slow down Giannis defensively. Allen Crabbe – (4,800 DK/4,600 FD) – Jeremy Lin’s unfortunate season-ending injury opens up more minutes for Crabbe, who impressed with 12 points and decent peripheral stats over 26 minutes off the bench on Wednesday. He could start at SG now with D’Angelo Russell sliding over to the point and be free to fire against an Orlando team that ranked 24th in opponents’ 3PT shooting (.367%) last year. Brooklyn’s ridiculous pace of play gives this contest the highest Over/Under (225.5) on the slate and makes it well worth targeting. Potential Value Jayson Tatum – (5,800 DK/6,500 FD) – Tatum is no longer a true value, but he remains a good bet for a double double and matches up well against the young Sixers frontcourt. Longshot Tobias Harris – (5,900 DK/6,800 FD) – Harris was fantastic in his season debut and could vastly outperform the cost of his price tag once again. Power Forwards Anthony Davis – (10,600 DK/10,900 FD) – Draymond Green (knee) is doubtful to suit up this Friday, leaving rookie Jordan Bell to start and he’s not remotely capable of containing Anthony Davis defensively. The Brow went for 33 points and 18 rebounds over 40 minutes in a tough matchup at Memphis on Wednesday and was battling an illness to boot. He averaged 35.3 PPG on 60% FG shooting over 4 meetings with Draymond and the Warriors last year, and this contest has a 220-point Over/Under in New Orleans. Trevor Booker – (4,700 DK/5,400 FD) – The Nets have very options in the
Jaguar Lou’s Cash Play’s – 10/19/17
Notes about tonight: · With Blowouts expected in two of the three games tonight, lineups must be constructed considering that most of your most expensive players could be sitting the entire fourth quarter. · Due to Bobby Portis’ altercation with Nikola Mirotic the Bulls are dealing with a make shift lineup. (suggested fade) PG Russel Westbrook – 11,800 FD & 11,000 DK Despite the realistic chances that Russel Westbrook will be sitting in the fourth quarter, on a small 3-game slate I don’t think you can afford to fade him. Plus, the Knicks could make it a game…Right? Probably not but either way Westbrook’s usage is just too high, on a three-game slate raw points become something you have to prioritize when guaranteed production is limited. Although I see Carmelo and George limiting Westbrook’s shot attempts, there will be more than enough fantasy stats to go around. I don’t know if I will be doing many lineups including all three of OKC’s big 3 (Carmelo, George and Westbrook) but I will be investing of shares in each of the big 3, just not altogether. My favorite combination is Russel Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony. The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored with a spread – 12.5 with a 215.5 O/U. **If the Knicks somehow make this a game, having shares of Westbrook will be imperative** Other Cash PG Option(s): Patrick Beverly, Kyle Lowry & Lonzo Ball (GPP) SG DeMar DeRozen – 8,800 FD & 8,300 DK DeMar DeRozen and Kyle Lowry are a two-man team in Toronto. DeMar DeRozen and Kyle Lowry will be taking roughly 60-70 % of the shot attempts in tonight’s game favoring Toronto by 13.5 points with a 207.5 O/U. Rostering Lowry and DeRozen for your cash games becomes an obvious call. Once again, my main concern is the blow out potential but like I said before, on a night like tonight there’s something to be said for raw points. Other Cash SG Option(s): Tim Hardaway (Safer GPP Play) SF Danilo Gallinari – 6,800 FD & 6,200 DK Danilo Gallinari has a nice matchup against a Lakers team notorious for allowing major points to the Small forward position. Gallinari will be matching up against 32-year-old Luol Deng. With a Lakers team that will be franticly trying to contain DeAndre Jordon, I believe Danilo Gallinari has the opportunity to make a splash in his first game with the Clippers, while maintaining a solid floor due to his various statistical abilities. The L.A Clippers are favored at – 6 with a 217 O/U. Other Cash SF Option(s): Paul George SF/PF Carmelo Anthony – 8,000 FD & 7,200 DK The Revenge narrative of a lifetime. Carmelo Anthony faces the New York Knicks in his first game with the Oklahoma City Thunder. I won’t go through the whole history of this relationship but just know that there is bad blood between Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks (and New Yorkers in general for that matter). Carmelo should be matching up against Porzingis all night. Despite the length that Porzingis carries on the defensive end of the court, I truly believe Carmelo will have no problem scoring on the 7-foot 3-inch Power Forward/Center (On the off-chance Hardaway guards Melo, I like this play even more). Beside the fact that Carmelo will undoubtingly want to show up his old team, the matchup is favorable – The perfect storm. I am slightly concerned simply because we have yet to see how this new Oklahoma City squad play’s together but I think it’s safe to say pairing Melo’s favorable matchup/usage rate with the revenge narrative, you can’t go wrong. The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored with a spread of -12.5 in a 215.5 O/U. Other Cash PF Option(s): Serge Ibaka & Kristaps Porzingis **Michael Beasley – if Porzingis in out** C DeAndre Jordan – 8,200 FD & 7,500 DK Brook Lopez is a very poor defender. The Brooklyn Nets allowed the most fantasy points to opposing Centers last season due to Brook Lopez’ defensive limitations. Tonight, he faces a true Center in DeAndre Jordan who should have absolutely no problem producing against Brook Lopez. With Chris Paul and J.J Redick gone, the L.A Clippers need to find players who will step up and fill the void. I’m expecting DeAndre Jordan to be the focal point of a game where the Clippers are favored at – 6 with a 217 O/U. In addition to his 20+ projected points, Jordan will benefit from massive rebound/block production – I fully expect him to reach value at such reasonable salaries. Other Cash Center Option(s): Jonas Valanciunas & Enes Kanter (Revenge/Garbage time)
Scouting the NBA – 10/19/17
Plays of the Day Value: Milos Teodosic is an exciting talent and worth rooting for by inserting him into DFS lineups tonight. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll be facing a Lakers team that’s given up the most APG (10.26) to opposing PGs over the last two years. Fade: Paul George may need time to integrate into a team rather than serving as the man in Indiana. His teammate, Carmelo Anthony, would certainly hope to put on a show in his season debut against his former team tonight, so perhaps PG is a little too passive offensively to meet the value of his price tag. Point Guards Russell Westbrook – (11,000 DK/11,800 FD) – The Thunder added a couple of volume shooters in Carmelo Anthony and Paul George and those guys will subtract from Westbrook’s ridiculous usage rate last season, but they’ll also improve his assist numbers and keep him fresh down the stretch, which was a huge issue in regards to his shooting percentage in the fourth quarter. Tonight he’ll face a Knicks team that’s given up the seventh-most APG (9.06) to opposing PGs over the last 2 seasons and allowed Westbrook to post triple doubles in consecutive meetings last year, as well as a lightning quick triple double on Christmas Day a few years ago when KD was still playing alongside Russ. Potential Value Milos Teodosic – (4,900 DK/5,300FD) – Along with Patrick Beverley, Teododosic is in line to meet value in a plus matchup against the Lakers. Teodosic has good upside as a veritable triple double threat if given a full slate of minutes Longshot Lonzo Ball – (6,800 DK/6,800 FD) – Lonzo has filled up the stat sheet at every level so far in his basketball career. There’s a decent chance that trend continues when he makes his NBA debut Shooting Guards DeMar DeRozan – (8,300DK/8,800FD) – He’s probably the only SG you’ll want to use in cash games tonight since every other option is a bit of a risk. DeRozan was old reliable while pouring in 27.3 PPG last season and he draws a great matchup in his first game of the season against the inexperienced and injury-depleted Bulls. He averaged 32 PPG over 3 meetings with Chicago when Jimmy Butler was guarding him and facing Justin Holiday or Denzel Valentine is a far easier prospect Potential Value Jerian Grant – (5,300 DK/6,600 FD) – Grant is likely to see heavy minutes with other Bulls guards injured Longshot Tim Hardaway Jr. – (5,800 DK/5,500 FD) – Hardaway will be a gunner for the Knicks this year and should get into a high-scoring battle with the Thunder. Small Forwards Carmelo Anthony – (7,200 DK/8,000 FD) – How perfect is this? Carmelo Anthony’s Thunder debut will come against the franchise that kicked him on the way out the door this offseason. That’s just about all the motivation he’ll need to mix it up on the boards and focus on his outside shots in a potential revenge game. The Knicks ranked 26th in defensive rating last year and the Thunder should run a much more efficient offense that will generate open looks for Melo. Potential Value Paul Zipser – (4,800 FD/4,200 DK) – Zipser is a solid cash game play to consider with the Bulls shorthanded. Longshot Danilo Gallinari – (6,800 FD/6,200 DK) – Gallo’s been banged up this season but is capable of lighting it up from the perimeter with his new team. Power Forwards Kristaps Porzingis – (8,200 FD/7,700 DK) – If he matches up against Anthony or Paul George, Porzingis will be able to use his length down low and he’s a bit too versatile for Steven Adams to handle on the perimeter. Any way you script this game going, the Unicorn will likely leave a huge imprint across the stat sheet, as he’s clearly demonstrating a willingness to take over as the primary option for the Knicks. As long as he avoids foul trouble, which he’s been able to do while still blocking shots with his 7-foot-3 frame, Porzingis is going to be worth his price tag. Potential Value Lauri Markannen – (6,500 FD/5,600 DK) – Markannen is expected to start for the Bulls with Nikola Mirotic (face) out and Bobby Portis being disciplined for knocking him out. Longshot Julius Randle – (6,300 FD/5,800 DK) – When healthy, Randle is a triple double threat and we know Blake Griffin can show defensive indifference at times. Center DeAndre Jordan – (8,200 FD/7,700 DK) – Brook Lopez has been consistently hobbled by foot injuries over the last two years, so it’s no coincidence that the Nets coughed up the third-most FPPG (53.62) and fifth-most PPG (22.74) to opposing centers during that span. A far superior leaper to Lopez, Jordan averaged 14 PPG and 18.5 RPG over 2 meetings with Brooklyn and 13.5 PPG and 13.5 RPG over 4 meetings with Lakers last season. He’s as good a bet for a double double as there is tonight. Potential Value Cristian Felicio – (3,500 FD/4,000 DK) – Longshot value to consider if you think Robin Lopez might struggle to defend Jonas Valanciunas Longshot Guillermo Hernangomez – (5,600 FD/5,000 DK) – Hernangomez is looking at extended run with Joakim Noah suspended tonight.
Jaguar Lou’s Cash Picks – 10/18/17
Point Guard PG Damian Lillard– 8,800 FD & 10,400 DK With C.J McCollum sidelined due to a one- game suspension for his actions in a pre-season altercation, expect Damian Lillard’s overall usage to go through the roof. Vegas has the Portland Trail Blazers favored by 1.5 points with a 217 O/U. These projected points need to come from somewhere. Portland’s offense over the last few seasons has been reliant on the C.J McCollum/ Damian Lillard duo – beside recently acquired Jusuf Nurkic, Portland does NOT have an excess of offensively capable players. I fully expect the Portland Trail Blazers to be carried by two players tonight, Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. Both players are at reasonable industry salaries considering their expected usage in close game with a 217 O/U. Other Cash PG Option(s): Kemba Walker & Eric Bledsoe Shooting Guard SG Bradley Beal – 7,300 FD & 7,000 DK Bradley Beal has a very favorable matchup tonight against the always vulnerable Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers were in the bottom five percentile in points allowed to opposing shooting guards throughout the 2016-2017 season. Let’s not get too tricky here. Bradley Beal is one of the best guards in the league facing either Jerryd Bayless or J.J Redick – neither of whom have a chance at containing Beal. The Washington Wizards are favored at – 6.5 with a 217.5 O/U. Other Cash SG Option(s): James Harden (If Chris Paul is out James Harden is a Lock on all formats) Small Forward SF Robert Covington – 6,400 FD & 5,000 DK Covington is a three-point shooting, rebounding/assist/steals/blocks monster. Covington might be one of the best all-around players in the East in terms of racking up a variety of stats. The 76ers have a young and inexperienced team and will be looking to the veteran in Robert Covington to lead the “Process”. While the 76ers are young and inexperienced, they’re extremely talented and capable of running with any team in the league. Covington should be matching up against Otto Porter tonight but that’s not what I’m targeting, I just think Robert Covington’s overall involvement in the game makes him a safe cash play, especially for the reasonable salaries of 6,400 on Fan Duel & 5,000 on Draft Kings. The Philadelphia 76ers are underdog’s at + 7 with a 217.5 O/U. Other Cash SF Option(s): Maurice Harkless & Jimmy Butler Power Forward PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge – 7,000 FD & 7,300 DK With Kawhi Leonard out the San Antonio Spurs have a major void in their offense. The question is, who benefits from the absence of such an impactful player like Kawhi Leonard? The Answer, LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge is a consistent veteran who Coach Gregg Popovich loves to let loose in situations where injury changes their normal game plan. With 21 year old Dejounte Murray running the point tonight, I would assume Popovich gets the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible and into the post allowing Aldridge to take advantage of the mismatch of either Taj Gibson or Karl Anthony Towns – both poor matchups against the 6 foot 11 inch, 260 pound big man. This will be a close battle and San Antonio will need LaMarcus Aldridge on the court if they’re going to beat a Timberwolves squad let by 2016’s Rookie of the Year, Karl Anthony Towns. The San Antonio Spurs are favored at -1.5 with a 205.5 O/U. Other Cash PF Option(s): Rondae Hollis-Jefferson & Jason Smith (Value GPP/ Cheap Cash play) Center C Jusuf Nurkic – 7,500 FD & 7,500 DK As I mentioned in the Damian Lillard write-up, tonight’s offensive output by the Portland Trail Blazers is dependent on two players, Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. Nurkic fully showcased his abilities for the first time last season on Denver and Portland (later in the season). Make no mistake about it, last year was not a fluke. Jusuf Nurkic is capable of pulling down 15+ rebound on any given night, pairing that with his blocking abilities AND the extra usage he’s going to see with McCollum out, Jusuf Nurkic is a lock for me at such reasonable salaries. Other Cash Center Option(s): Myles Turner
Scouting The NBA – 10/18/17
Point Guards John Wall – (9,800 DK/10,000 FD) Wall’s been extremely efficient while showing off an improved jumper before resting in the final game of the preseason. Now he draws a juicy matchup in his regular season debut against a Sixers team that improved last year, yet still gave up the seventh-most PPG (108.1). Wall averaged 23.4 PPG and 10.8 APG at home and 27 PPG and 9 APG over 3 meetings with Philadelphia last year. Look for him to dictate the action in the Wizards home opener. Damian Lillard – (10,400 DK/8,800 FD) With C.J. McCollum suspended for the Blazers opener, Lillard will be a very popular play and justifiably so. He averaged 1.36 points per minute with a 2.2% increase in usage rate with CJM off the floor last year and should be able to dissect a Suns team that’s given up the third-most FPPG (49.67) and most PPG (26.01) to opposing PGs over the last two seasons. Lillard torched the Suns to the tune of 33.8 PPG on 47% FG shooting over 4 meetings last year and he has a great new running mate at the center position in Jusuf Nurkic. Potential Value Dennis Smith Jr. – (6,800 DK/4,300FD) Dennis Smith Jr. is extremely cheap on FanDuel to open the season given his upside as the floor leader for Dallas. Longshot Kyrie Irving – (8,500 DK/8,200 FD) Kyrie Irving is going to hoist a ton of shots for the Celtics after Gordon Hayward’s season-ending injury and Terry Rozier ($3800/3100 as SG) should see more run as a result. Shooting Guards D’Angelo Russell – (6,600DK/6,600FD) The Nets offense will likely run through Russell this year, making him an appealing early-season target until his price tag adjusts to his new usage rate. He was restricted by Byron Scott’s old school antics two years ago and bogged down in a deep Lakers rotation last year, but now he’ll start at SG on a team with only Jeremy Lin and Allen Crabbe as alternative scoring options. Brooklyn led the league in pace last year and the Pacers middling defense should become far worse with Darren Collison taking over for the much more athletic Jeff Teague at the point. Jaylen Brown – ($3,900 DK/$3,700 FD) It doesn’t matter of Brown is close to 90% owned tonight, you’re going to want to play the Celtics budding star at this ridiculously low-price tag. Minutes are money in NBA DFS and Jaylen played 40 minutes in the season opener due in part to Hayward’s season-ending injury. He didn’t shy away from big moments, taking and making huge shots down the stretch and guarding LeBron James, and draws another big challenge tonight with Giannis Antetokounmpo coming to town. The only way Brown fails to meet value is an injury or continuous foul trouble. Potential Value Rodney Hood – (5,800 DK/4,500 FD) Rodney Hood is bound to see an increase in usage with Gordon Hayward no longer in a Jazz uniform and Ricky Rubio looking to feed the sharpshooter. Longshot Victor Oladipo – (6,800 DK/6,100 FD) Victor Oladipo will be the man in the backcourt for Indiana as they look to replace Paul George’s production. Small Forwards Rudy Gay – (5,500 DK/5,500 FD) With Kawhi Leonard (quad) expected to miss at least opening night and possibly more games, the Spurs should immediately look to utilize their new acquisition. Gay has been accused of playing selfish basketball at times, but chances are Gregg Popovich and his staff have already coached him up during training camp and will help him fit within their system. With LaMarcus Aldridge struggling to close the season and set to match up with the Wolves formidable front court, Gay could be the Spurs main source of offense at home in a winnable matchup against pure scorer Andrew Wiggins. Jayson Tatum – (3,500 FD/4,100DK) Tatum would’ve been a great value at PF regardless because Marcus Morris (knee) is still about a week away from returning, but Gordon Hayward’s season-ending injury forces him into must-play consideration along with Jaylen Brown. The rookie impressed tremendously with 10 points, 14 rebounds and 3 assists while playing 37 minutes and there’s been no time for his price tag to adjust, so you almost have to use him due to the Celtics suddenly shallow rotation. Potential Value Jeremy Lamb – (3,500 FD/5,700 DK) Jeremy Lamb should soak up minutes over the next couple of months with Nicholas Batum out. Longshot Otto Porter – (5,800 FD/5,700 DK) Otto Porter has a great floor-ceiling combination in a plus matchup against the Sixers at home. Power Forwards Anthony Davis – (10,800 FD/10,500 DK) If you go cheap at SG and SF tonight, as makes sense, you’ll have enough money to insert AD at PF without much issue. He’s not expected to be limited by an illness in any way, but that questionable tag combined with a perceived tough matchup at Memphis should lower his ownership rate. Marc Gasol can only guard one of Davis of DeMarcus Cousins and that would leave AD to work against young PF JaMychal Green. Aaron Gordon – (6,900 FD/6,300 DK) Gordon flashed a much-improved shooting touch from the outside this preseason and is expected to make a leap in his fourth NBA season. If he can supplement his inside prowess with a perimeter game, the sky is the limit for a player with even more athleticism than Blake Griffin when he came out of school. Along with Elfrid Payton, he’s poised to lead a young Magic team that is flush with young talent and he should be able to bully Miami’s smaller frontcourt while Nikola Vucevic and Hassan Whiteside tangle. Potential Value Jason Smith – (4,000 FD/3,900 DK) Jason Smith will likely start for Washington with Markief Morris (abdomen) out. Longshot James Johnson – (5,500 FD/5,500 DK) James Johnson is expected to come off the bench with Kelly Olynyk starting for Miami,
NBA Opening Night – Jaguar Lou’s Cash Plays
Welcome to another NBA Fantasy Season! Before I give my cash picks for tonight’s games, I just wanted to make a couple points about NBA DFS strategy that you should know if you expect to win any tournaments – GPP or Cash. Make sure you monitor all lineups until they are confirmed. A simple last-minute lineup change can alter usage numbers creating a play that is cheap and obvious. For example, five minutes before lineup lock the Cavs confirm that Lebron is not playing, this is important not only because you’ll have to remove Lebron from your lineups but also because the game usage for Kevin Love will undoubtingly go through the roof! Adjustments like this take your DFS game to the next level. Correlations are important to recognize. Kill two birds with one stone, if you know two guys who play well off each other, play them together. Beware of the blow out! Just remember, teams sit their starters in games where they’re getting blown out. Your starters can’t get points if they’re on the bench! On two game slates like tonight make more than one lineup! You can limit your risk by investing in just a few extra lineups, hedging one lineup off another. PG Kyrie Irving – 8,200 FD & 8,300 DK Kyrie Irving is starting the 2017-2018 season against his old team the Cleveland Cavaliers – a team he demanded to trade him just a few months ago. Putting aside the fact that he’s matching up against an aging Derrick Rose, this is a spite game for Kyrie. This is a narrative play by all accounts but logical as well. Kyrie should benefit off assists and possibly some rebounds to along with 25+ points. I do think this game stays close and Irving will be a big part of that. Assuming Jaylen Brown and/or Marcus Smart are responsible for guarding Lebron James, Boston’s offensive production should really boil down to three main players: Kyrie Irving, Al Horford and Gordon Heyward. Out of these three players Kyrie would be my most confident pick, making him my lock of the day. Containing Lebron James will not be easy but that’s Brown/Smart’s problem, Kyrie’s responsibility is to keep the Celtic’s in the game, a task that I’m confident he completes tonight in a stadium full of Cleveland fans who will likely be fueling his rage by booing his name all night long. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash PG Option(s): Derrick Rose SG Klay Thompson – 6,800 FD & 6,200 DK Some might say this is more of a GPP play but I disagree. Klay Thompson will be guarding James Harden. Everyone know that James Harden kills it on the offensive end of the court but the fact is, he’s allowed a ton of points on the defensive end of the court. Klay Thompson will not only benefit from Harden’s inconsistent defense, he will also benefit from the guaranteed 35+ minutes he will see on the court as he should be guarding James Harden for the entire game. Assuming Klay Thompson stays out of foul trouble, I believe this matchup creates an opportunity for a big game from Klay as well as maintaining a solid floor for cash games. At such reasonable salaries around the industry, Klay’s chances of reaching value are very good. The Golden State Warriors are favored at – 9.5 with a massive 229.5 O/U. ** Draymond Green is dealing with back problems and is currently a GTD, continue to monitor! ** Other Cash SG Option(s): Dwayne Wade & James Harden SF/PF Jae Crowder –4,500 FD & 4,300 DK **This play is contingent on Jae Crowder starting** If the projections are correct Jae Crowder will be starting tonight and matching up against Jayson Tatum – the rookie that ultimately replaced him. Similar to the Kyrie narrative, Crowder is going to want to show up and prove to the Celtics what they gave up. Also, similar to the Kyrie narrative, Crowder exhibits a favorable matchup in both size and skill. In his first game with the Cleveland Cavaliers look for some hustle out of Crowder and with Rookie Jayson Tatum guarding him, beware of a potentially big game for Jae Crowder. Not to mention, Crowder racks up a variety of stats, which is the best kind of fantasy player to roster for cash games. If this game stays close, I can see Crowder putting up 10/5+/5+ considering he should be heavily involved in Cleveland’s offense. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash SF Option(s): Lebron James, Gordon Heyward & Kevin Durant PF/C Kevin Love – 7,000 FD & 7,800 DK Regardless of if Lebron James suits up or not (I don’t see him missing this game), Kevin Love is in a nice matchup against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics had significant problems protecting the rim last season, ranking 26th allowing an average of 44.5 rebounds per game. Boston specifically struggled protecting their own basket allowing an average of 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, ranking the Celtics 5th worst in the league. Al Horford is a very talented Center but in my mind, is no match for Kevin Love. Current projections have Love playing Center and Jae Crowder playing the 4, either way I don’t think the Celtics have the personnel to hold down Kevin Love. I do think this is the game to target on tonight's two game slate – It should be a close, high scoring affair filled with emotion. The question is, what is the right combination of players to have full exposure to this game? Start by locking in Kevin Love at a very reasonable salary on both Fan Duel and Draft Kings. The Cleveland Cavaliers are favored at -3.5 with a 212.5 O/U. Other Cash PF Option(s): Draymond Green & Ryan Anderson (more of a GPP play but plausible) C Clint
Scouting the NHL: Sat 10/14
UPDATES as of 4pm EST in RED HUUUUGE 14 game slate this evening … Tonights B2B Teams Might be early in the year for this to be clicking as we saw the Red Wings go off late last night,