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Batter and Pitcher Splits in MLB DFS

One of the most important methods to analyzing player metrics in Baseball is by looking at a players splits. The most common form of batter and pitcher splits are referred to as platoon splits; essentially targeting hitters facing opposite-handed pitchers and while attacking pitchers …

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NASCAR DFS: Pennzoil 400 Preview

NASCAR DFS: Pennzoil 400 Preview Fresh off a trip to Atlanta Motor Speedway, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is back at a 1.5-mile oval this weekend. Las Vegas Motor Speedway will host Sunday’s Pennzoil 400, the first leg of a three-race West Coast swing. Although Vegas isn’t a carbon copy of Atlanta, it does tend to follow the same trends that we see at other 1.5-mile tracks, with drivers starting up front leading a lot of the laps. Last weekend at AMS, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch all led more than 30 laps, combining to lead 271 of the 325 laps. All three started seventh or better. Last year at Vegas, Martin Truex Jr. and Keselowski combined to lead 239 of the 267 laps, and they both started on the front row. In fact, the driver who has led the most laps at Las Vegas has started 11th or better in five of the last six seasons. Starting off with at least one dominator is a given, but the rest of my lineup will depend on how qualifying pans out. If a couple of bigger names end up starting in the back, I’ll be willing to punt my final roster spot to afford both a dominator and grab some exposure to the place differential points. If there are aren’t any obvious plays starting in the back, I’ll be more likely to go with a balanced approach. Two dominators and a mixture of mid-priced plays could get the job done. Make sure to check back after Friday’s qualifying session or my updated picks and lineups strategies. In the meantime, here is a closer look at my top options at DraftKings for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas.   Must Own Drivers Martin Truex Jr. ($10,500)  I’m not worried that he didn’t have a dominant run at Atlanta last weekend. Last year, Truex didn’t lead a lap and finished eighth at AMS, but he turned around and led 150 laps and won at Las Vegas. More importantly, he went on to lead at least 49 laps in the other 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks, winning seven times. I’m expecting plenty of dominator points from the defending champ in this one. Kevin Harvick ($10,300) A cut tire sent him into the wall and out of the race at Vegas last year, but Harvick has led laps in his other three starts at the track with Stewart-Haas Racing, including 142 in a win in the 2015 race. Throw in the beatdown he put on the field at Atlanta last weekend, and Harvick looks like one of the best bets to earn some dominator points Sunday.  Brad Keselowski ($9,400) Keselowski has the setup figured out at Vegas. Over the last five races, he has a series-best 3.4 average finish and hasn’t finished worse than seventh. He also has two wins during that stretch and has led laps in all five races, leading 89 laps here last year. Overall, he ranks third in both dominator categories at Vegas, and only Jimmie Johnson has a higher percentage of laps led and fastest laps run at the track. I love him at this price. Joey Logano ($9,300) He’s coming off a solid run at Atlanta, and Logano has been a force at Vegas since joining Team Penske. He has a 6.4 average finish in five starts at the track, leading 40-plus laps three time and recording 14 or more fastest laps in all five races. I could see myself stacking the Team Penske guys this weekend.    Value Plays Ryan Blaney ($8,700)  Blaney is quickly becoming one of the better drivers at the 1.5-mile tracks, and he has already amassed a solid resume at Las Vegas. He has a 10.7 average finish in three starts here, finishing sixth in 2016 and seventh last year. Blaney showed some dominator potential at the mile-and-a-half tracks last year, so whether he starts up front or deeper in the field, he is going to have great upside for the price this weekend. Clint Bowyer ($8,100) He notched a Top 10 at Vegas last year, and while he was more of a Top 15 driver at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2017, you have to be intrigued by his strong third-place run at Atlanta last weekend. If he shows muscle in practice again this weekend, Bowyer could end up being a mid-priced gem. Daniel Suarez ($7,300)  Suarez tends to torpedo his own value with excellent qualifying efforts, but he has a Top 15 floor and Top 10 potential. You can’t ask for much more at this price. If Suarez happens to have an average qualifying run or worse, he’ll become one of the bargains on the weekend. Paul Menard ($6,900) He is coming off a decent outing at Atlanta, and I really think the move to Wood Brothers Racing is going to help Menard this year. He has quietly been one of the better sleepers at Las Vegas, and his 11.8 average finish over the last five races here ranks eighth in the series. Menard has an average place differential of +6.4 during the same stretch, and I’ll be all over him as a cheaper play if he starts in the middle of the pack or worse. Trevor Bayne ($6,300) Bayne’s mostly been a mid-pack performer at Vegas, but he’s been so bad in qualifying that he could have some potential this weekend. Over the last five races, he has a 20.2 average finish and an average place differential of +10.4. He has gained at least seven spots in every race in that span, gaining double-digit spots three times. If he struggles in qualifying again Friday, he should be a safe source of cap relief.   Sleeper Specials A.J. Allmendinger ($6,000) I don’t like to make a habit of trusting Allmendinger at intermediate ovals, but he has managed decent numbers at Vegas with JTG Daugherty Racing, posting a 15.5 average finish in five starts. He’ll also free up a bunch

NASCAR XFINITY Atlanta Preview

NASCAR XFINITY DFS: Rinnai 250 DraftKings Preview   The XFINITY Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend for the Rinnai 250, and it still feels good to be talking about NASCAR DFS and the XFINITY Series in the same sentence. It also feels good to get to some real racing at one of the best 1.5-mile ovals on the schedule after a wreck-filled opener at Daytona.   Saturday’s race is also a companion even with the Cup Series, so that means there is going to be a few Cup regulars in the field. When setting your lineup at DraftKings, these Cup stars are the overwhelming favorites to win the dominator categories, and even though there are only 163 laps on tap, you still need to anchor your lineup with a couple of studs.   Filling out the rest of your lineup will be the tricky part. There is usually a huge gap between the drivers from the top teams and everyone else, so quality sleepers are few and far between. Depending on how qualifying plays out, I may be tempted to punt a roster spot, especially if a quality driver ends up with a bunch of upside through place differential.   Qualifying will be Saturday morning before the race, so make sure to check back for updated picks after the starting lineup is set. In the meantime, here is a closer look at the drivers I’ll be targeting ahead of Saturday’s Rinnai 250 at Atlanta.   Must-Own Drivers   Kevin Harvick   Harvick led the most laps in this race last year and finished fourth, and he was a force whenever he raced in the XFINITY Series. He finished sixth or better in all six of his starts, and he led 50-plus laps in three of his four starts at intermediate ovals. Harvick has top-scorer potential written all over him.   Joey Logano   He is a threat to win whenever he races in the XFINITY Series, and in three starts at 1.5-mile tracks last year, he led 126 laps and picked up a win. Overall, he logged nine Top 10s and led 276 laps in 10 XFINITY starts, and Logano is in prime position to pile up dominator points in this one.   Contrarian Dominators   Christopher Bell   Bell might be a rookie, but he is also one of the favorites for the championship. He made a few spot starts in the XFINITY Series last year, and in four starts at 1.5-mile tracks, he logged three Top 10s and picked up a win at Kansas. Bell has the talent and equipment to lead laps and contend for wins, even with a couple of Cup stars in the field.   Cole Custer   As a rookie last season, no driver scored more points at the 1.5-mile tracks last year than Custer. He finished in the Top 10 in eight of the 11 races while compiling a 7.9 average finish. More importantly, he had a dominating victory in the season finale at Homestead, leading 182 of the 200 laps. Even in a stacked field, Custer could provide some dominator points.   Difference Makers   Elliott Sadler   He doesn’t have a lot of dominator upside, but Sadler can be a strong No. 3 driver in a DFS lineup because of his consistency. He has back-to-back Top 10s at Atlanta, and last year, he led all drivers with nine Top 10s in the 11 races at 1.5-mile ovals. With a short list of drivers who could realistically lead laps this weekend, the 30-plus points Sadler is likely to provide from his finishing position become a lot more valuable.   Tyler Reddick   Reddick is coming off a win at Daytona, but he is more than just a guy who got lucky at a plate track. In part-time duty last year, he cracked the Top 10 in five of his six starts at 1.5-mile tracks, closing the year with a win at Kentucky, a second-place finish at Kansas and a fourth-place finish at Homestead. Reddick is a dark horse to be the top series regular in Saturday’s race.   Matt Tifft   Although his 2017 season with Joe Gibbs Racing didn’t quite live up to expectations, Tifft found a bit of rhythm at the 1.5-mile tracks late in the year, reeling off six straight Top 10s. Tifft is no longer with JGR, but he still has quality equipment after joining Richard Childress Racing in the offseason. If he starts outside the Top 10, he could make a nice addition to the bottom of my lineup.   Chase Briscoe   He will be making his XFINITY Series debut this weekend, but Briscoe had an impressive season in the Truck Series last year, looking like the best driver in the series for stretches. He’ll drive for Roush Fenway Racing this weekend, so he has strong equipment, and I think he has Top 10 potential. If he has a little upside through place differential, I won’t hesitate to roster him.   Kyle Benjamin   While he doesn’t have a lot of experience, Benjamin has shown elite speed in the opportunities he has had, and he is driving for Joe Gibbs Racing. He made five XFINITY starts last year, finishing as high as second and leading 28 laps at Pocono and 52 at Kentucky. Benjamin is likely a boom-or-bust option, but he has the upside that could help you take down a big GPP.   Sleeper Special   Spencer Gallagher   He won’t be fighting for wins or the series title this year, but Gallagher was sneaky effective at the 1.5-mile tracks last year. He compiled a 20.5 average, and he cracked the Top 15 five times. He could deliver 20-plus points on finishing position alone, and his value will only rise if he has some place differential potential after qualifying.   Big Name to Fade   Ty Dillon   Dillon might be a Cup regular, but he doesn’t dominate when he dabbles in

NASCAR Daytona 500 DraftKings Plays

DFS NASCAR: Daytona 500 DraftKings Lineup Tips   The Can-Am Duel qualifying races are in the books, and the starting lineup for the 2018 Daytona 500 is officially set. Young guns Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott picked up wins in the qualifying races, locking them into Row 2 behind pole winner Alex Bowman and Denny Hamlin.   Starting position is crucial for determining a driver’s DFS value at any track, but most of the time, building a winning DFS NASCAR lineup means targeting a couple drivers starting up front and focusing on the laps led and fastest laps run categories. You can throw that strategy out the window this weekend, and at any restrictor-plate race for that matter.   With the field bunched together in a giant pack, the fastest laps run category is effectively useless. Even the laps led category is greatly devalued. More importantly, the likelihood of a driver wrecking is so much higher at a plate track that a strong starting spot becomes a liability because of all the potential points to lose in the place differential category.   On the flip side, drivers starting in the back actually have tons of potential because they have a bunch of differential points to gain. History says that stacking your lineup with drivers starting way in the back, even drivers from smaller teams that you would never consider at a typical oval, is the recipe for success.   In last year’s Daytona 500, only one driver who started in the Top 10 finished in the Top 10, and only two Top 10 qualifiers finished in the Top 15. Meanwhile, six drivers who started 25th or worse ended up in the Top 10, including four who started 30th or worse.   Yes, I’ll probably have a few lineups where I pick a driver starting up front. In these cases, I’ll be targeting drivers who have shown speed throughout the week and could end up leading 50-plus laps and winning the race. However, most of my lineups will be loaded with drivers starting outside the Top 25. The place differential category is the safest and most effective source of points this weekend. Build your lineups accordingly.   Must-Own Drivers   Brad Keselowski ($10,400)   He cost a lot of people money when he crashed out of his qualifying race, but on the plus side, he is now in position to help you make a lot of money in the Daytona 500. Keselowski has been the most dominant driver at plate tracks, winning three of the last seven and leading 30-plus laps five times in that span. Starting 31st, Keselowski should exploit the place differential category to the fullest while potentially leading some laps. He’ll have a golden opportunity to be the top scorer Sunday.   Kyle Larson ($9,300)   It has been a rough start to Speedweeks for Larson, but don’t abandon him just yet. He’ll be starting way back in 38th, so among the drivers with a legitimate shot to win Sunday, he has the most upside through place differential. Larson has also been solid at the plate tracks recently, notching five Top 15s in his last six starts. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being the top scorer at DraftKings this weekend.   Jimmie Johnson ($9,100)   Johnson has been more bust than boom at the plate tracks recently, and he’s already wrecked two cars during Speedweeks and will have to start 35th. However, he also owns five wins at restrictor-plate tracks, including two in the Daytona 500. There aren’t many guys who have a legitimate chance of winning Sunday who also have a chance to earn 30-plus points through place differential.   Aric Almirola ($7,700)   He was the victim of Jimmie Johnson’s spin during the first qualifying race, but as far as I’m concerned, Almirola’s misfortune Thursday just makes him a no-brainer play Sunday. He’ll start 37th, but he has four straight Top 10s at plate tracks and owns a Daytona win. Almirola offers tons of potential for a great price.   GPP Difference Makers   Chase Elliott ($10,200)   I won’t even consider most drivers starting up front, but Elliott is on the short list of guys I’d make an exception for this weekend. He clearly has one of the strongest cars, leading 17 laps in the Clash and winning his qualifying race. It’s also easy to forget that he was battling for the lead in last year’s Daytona 500 in the closing laps. It’s a risky play for sure, but if Elliott ends up leading the most laps and winning the race, the risk will be well worth it. I’ll have him in at least one of my lineups.   Joey Logano ($9,600)   The other driver starting in the Top 10 that I’ll probably have some exposure to is Logano. He has three plate wins under his belt, and he has six finishes of sixth or better in the last 10 plate races, leading double-digit laps in four of the last five. He’s also been strong throughout Speedweeks, finishing second in the Clash and in his qualifying race. Team Penske has looked strong as a whole, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Logano ends up leading the most laps and winning the race Sunday.   Jamie McMurray ($8,000)   If you are looking to go against the grain with a pick or two but don’t want to risk using drivers starting in the Top 10, McMurray is an interesting alternative. He starts 19th, and the mid-pack starting spot could help him fly under the radar a bit while still giving him some upside in the differential category. McMurray is also a four-time winner at plate tracks, so he always has a chance to make some serious noise at Daytona.   William Byron ($7,300)   The rookie’s introduction to plate racing at the Cup level didn’t go well, and Byron ended up spinning in his qualifying race after Ricky Stenhouse Jr. got him

Scouting The NBA – 2/14

Nate Weitzer scouts the NBA supplying his early morning picks

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