NHL DFS: Point Shot Cheat Sheet – 8/12
CENTERS WINGS DEFENSE TOP $ Nathan MacKinnon (COL) Elias Pettersson (VAN) Alex Ovechkin (WSH) Alex Pietrangelo (STL) Shea Weber (MTL) Alex Edler (VAN) MID $ Bo Horvat (VAN) Nazem Kadri (COL) Brendan Gallagher (MTL) Taylor Hall (ARI) Vlad Tarasenko (STL) Quinn Hughes (VAN) Jeff Petry (MTL) VALUE $ Brayden Schenn (STL) Nick Suzuki (MTL) Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NYI) Jakub Vrana (WSH) Jonathan Drouin (MTL) Clayton Keller (ARI) Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI) Justin Faulk (STL) Ian Cole (COL) Favorite Line Stacks *Note: Lines are subject to change depending on morning skate lines. Revert to the chat and/or look for updates here for any impact they may have. New York Islanders Lee – Barzal – Eberle St. Louis Blues Schwartz – Schenn – Tarasenko Montreal Canadiens Tatar – Suzuki – Gallagher Value Line Stacks Arizona Coyotes Garland – Stepan – Keller Washington Capitals Vrana – Backstrom – Oshie Top Goalies Carey Price (MTL) – As Price goes, the Canadiens go and he was dominant in the qualifying series against Pittsburgh. We’ve seen it time and time again in the playoffs if you can get a hot goaltender you have a very good chance to go far and that’s what the Habs have right now. Jordan Binnington (STL) – Much like most of the other teams during the round-robin, St. Louis basically sleepwalked through three games and Binnington was not good. Plain and simple. I expect him and the Blues to be much better as they’ve clearly been battle-tested while the younger Canucks might not be quite ready. Semyon Varlamov (NYI) – I like the Isles chances to hang with Washington and potentially upset them in this series. A lot of that will depend on the opening contest here tonight and Varlamov at $7200 brings some solid value. GOOD LUCK!!
The Power Fade – Wyndham Championship
The Power Fade – PGA DFS By: Mark Farris Tournament: Wyndham Championship Course: Sedgefield Country Club (Par 70 – 7,100 Yards) Location: Greensboro, NC Corollary Courses: Harbour Town (RBC Heritage) Well, last week was a helluva tournament to
Burning Edge – 2020 Wyndham
The Burning Edge Congratulations are in order for Mr. Morikawa before we get started. The kid is ELITE. Now vaulting himself to 5th in the world rankings, everyone will now take notice of the new wave of golfers we have
The Dongers Club – Tue, August 11th
SLATE INTRO Thank you Oakland. Thank you. The Athletics absolutely came through late last night unlike the Dodgers. So in today’s “Dongers Club Thought of the Day” we find that there’s a rumor going around about humidors being placed in Boston, Seattle and NY Mets stadiums for this season and it’s having an impact on those games. Nonsense. First off, it’s just a rumor and it’s spun off from an article which is wondering why hitting is down. As you know, we already have been ahead of this on the theories (even though I was wrong in saying the hitting would be coming out stronger than pitchers to start). Bullpens was one thing, but the other is the incredible BABIP drop we have seen and there was some good logic put into why that is happening from Sam Fuld of all people — who is now the “Director of Integrative Performance” for the Phillies. He had this to say about the impact of shifts and defensive alignments … Quite accurate. Coming into last night Jon Gray had an insane BABIP through his first two games compared to prior seasons and that like always is the case with BABIP started to adjust. I sense things will adjust in many places and we’re starting to see offense go up – although my personal opinion is that we don’t quite have an explosion DFS slate today. Keeping in line with the nugget of the day (and week really), here’s who in my mind is below and above expectations offensively so far this season. These are based off my expectations, which I trust more than anyone else’s. Teams exceeding expectations … Orioles — Specifically they have a .285 BABIP and only 21% K rate. Both will change negatively for them. Cubs Mets Teams below expectations … Indians — Until Lindor moves out of the 3 hole this will remain true. Blue Jays — About to sky rocket Diamondbacks — Also climbing very rapidly Twins — Mitch Garver having a massive back to earth season and Josh Donaldson not being healthy have hurt them. They’ll be fine though. I am also very heavily looking at pitchers who have so far exceeded expectations as guys who are about to get lit up and guys who are far below expectations as being good players to take chances on. P.S. BABIP is vastly overrated when viewed by itself but it’s relevant in the context of the quote from the article above so that is why I referenced it. WEATHER Humid but quiet and clear of any PPD risks So far through one game the roof opening in Texas most definitely has helped out hitters, but the ball still tends to die a little bit and the wind almost has no impact. Tonight features quite a few potential options, but what drives me nuts is the pricing on these guys is almost all identical. So you would think just take the best one and move on right? Well, not so easy…. Zack Wheeler It certainly feels like this is the first time all year we have been able to consider Wheeler in his new Phillies uniform. He has made two starts in the home ballpark (one as the road team) against the Marlins and the Yankees and he’s carried things over quite well in both games. The Orioles lineup has scattered annoying home runs in it at times, but despite Wheeler having very low K totals in his first two games, this is the spot to see a boost from him as the back end of their lineup should be SO-SO-SO-SO….. Max Scherzer I did not want to use him initially but seeing how I was not heavy on Coors Field tonight and didn’t see stacking heavy on other teams I don’t see why I don’t just play Max + Zack Wheeler on DK and then mix in some value bats (i.e. Tampa) elsewhere. The price difference isn’t that much either and Max going 6 innings and getting you 9 or 10 strikeouts isn’t asking for much. He’ll give you a high floor and we can focus then on mixing the CORE bats with value bats effectively to day. Max bounces back after that 1 inning game. He’s fine but won’t dominate with an insane score. Mike Minor Game log watchers will see that Mike Minor had two insane games against the Mariners last season, but their lineup has changed enough to throw some of that out. I still believe this ballpark is pitcher friendly even with the roof open and will go back here again without concern. Minor’s price on FD today is extremely cheap for the upside he brings. Outside of the Box Zac Gallen Nobody will have him and I think that’s a mistake. The Rockies have just seen about 5 straight games facing a LHP and now will get to face one of the best underappreciated arms in the NL West. Not only has he managed the Rockies in the past, Gallen has faced three teams this season and thrown 16 IP, allowed 5 ER and struck out 21 batters. Those three teams??? Padres, Dodgers and Astros. Not exactly cupcake lineups to walk through. Gallen’s proven enough and while he probably does give up a solo HR to Daniel Murphy, he will still pitch better than expectations given that he is in Coors tonight and Colorado can still produce favorable strikeout upside. Cheapest SP on the board worth using: Marco Gonzales Guys I am not using Ross Stripling … Seeing the same lineup two starts in a row. Fade for that reason to me. But logically he makes sense. Dylan Bundy … Sometimes you just have to pass on a game entirely and not provide a take on a player. That’s what I am doing here. No comment. There’s about half a dozen teams I could mention as oh hey, they probably do well, here and there
NHL DFS: Point Shot Cheat Sheet – 8/11
CENTERS WINGS DEFENSE TOP $ Patrice Bergeron (BOS) Brayden Point (TB) David Pastrnak (BOS) * didn’t practice, expected to play Nikita Kucherov (TB) Shea Theodore (VGK) Seth Jones (CBJ) MID $ William Karlsson (VGK) Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ) Brad Marchand (BOS) Jonathan Marchessault (VGK) Cam Atkinson (CBJ) Torey Krug (BOS) Nate Schmidt (VGK) VALUE $ Boone Jenner (CBJ) Joe Pavelski (DAL) Kirby Dach (CHI) Reilly Smith (VGK) Nick Foligno (CBJ) Justin Williams (CAR) Duncan Keith (CHI) Erik Gustafsson (CGY) Calvin De Haan (CHI) Brandon Carlo (BOS) Favorite Line Stacks *Note: Lines are subject to change depending on morning skate lines. Revert to the chat and/or look for updates here for any impact they may have. Boston Bruins Marchand – Bergeron – Pastrnak Tampa Bay Lightning Palat – Point – Kucherov Vegas Golden Knights Marchessault – Stastny – Smith Value Line Stacks Columbus Blue Jackets Nyquist – Jenner – Foligno Boston Bruins Debrusk – Krejci – Kase Tampa Bay Lightning Killorn – Cirelli – Johnson Top Goalies Marc-Andre Fleury / Robin Lehner (VGK) – I like whichever Vegas netminder we get in this game against the Blackhawks. Chicago played extremely well in their qualifying series against the fraudulent Edmonton Oilers and have the playoffs pedigree with Toews, Kane, Keith, and Crawford leading them. With all of that being said, in a game that should see some up and down action, I expect either MAF or Lehner to see a lot of work in net and be equal to the task; MAF with plenty of playoff experience and Lehner, a goalie who thrives with the more pucks he sees. Tuukka Rask (BOS) – Rask should bounce back after losing two games in the round-robin series when he faced Tampa and Washington respectively. Carolina is a solid team but they do lack consistent scoring and quality scoring chances at times but do get pucks to the net. I’ll back Rask here and expect Boston to get their act together after an overall piss-poor showing during the round-robin series losing all three games. GOOD LUCK!!
The Dongers Club – Mon, August 10th
SLATE INTRO Tough way to end the week with the pitching debacles and injuries that we had yesterday and I take full blame for not rolling out a GIFtastic article last Friday like I should have. That’s on me. One continuing piece of advice is to note how many teams are using DEEP bullpens right now and the hitters have no clue what these guys are throwing most of the time. The Indians/White Sox game is a great example and here’s a list of the White Sox bullpen arms who had pitched in the 5 days leading up to last nights game: That’s a crap ton of arms. So this idea that you shouldn’t have looked at at 7 inning only game yesterday gets a little diminished when you consider how random the bullpen variance is right now, no? At any rate, it will settle out at some point but we gotta remain focused on two things. Who is locked in right now and thus players we are seeing consistently get on base or have good At Bats. Who has no clue right now, but when they might be showing signs of breaking out. These are your daily hitting choices and you MUST be looking at things through the lens of an entire series. Honestly, that part is no different than any other season. Worst bullpens on this slate as of right now: Seattle San Diego (strength is in the back end, this should change though) SF Giants Texas NY Mets Best bullpens on this slate as of right now: Dodgers Athletics … Dominant Rockies Tampa Bay Milwaukee WEATHER Quiet and clear This is a very mediocre pitching slate today. Nobody who pops out as a clear cut must own but lots of guys who are kind of right down the middle in terms of being able to offer some value. A good evening to take a risk or two for those of you on DraftKings with your SP2. Kyle Gibson After getting destroyed early in his last game against Oakland he settled down and got through 6 solid innings with 9 strikeouts mid last week before his bullpen blew the game late. The Seattle Mariners come to down and they are near the bottom statistically in most categories when we sum things up. It is only 91 today which makes me wonder if they’ll ever open the roof down there. I doubt it. Well shit. They just opened the roof. All in fellas. All in. Let’s see how this plays out.. Dallas Keuchel Maybe Keuchel is just an AL guy? He’ll be getting a Detroit team who had two magical days in Pittsburgh and then cooled off as expected yesterday. Keuchel is good at getting a ton of ground balls and the Tigers will gladly give him all of those today. Never a huge strikeout pitcher he is coming off an impressive 8K performance against the Brewers last week and that will give some folks hope. Don’t fall into that trap, if you get 5K from him you’ll be happy, but 7 Innings is a strong possibility and he’s a fantastic DK play today sitting at $7800. Outside of the Box Logan Webb Houston obviously is struggling having just played the Athletics in Oakland, but with Springer banged up and still no Yordan Alvarez the luster that they have as an offense does have to settle in as losing a hit does it not? At only 6 foot tall, Logan Webb does a very good job of mixing up his pitches and that’s a major plus for the pitcher when the opponent doesn’t know you very well. I expect the Astros struggles to continue and will be playing the Giants to win this game as well. Really expect Logan Webb to have a nice sneaky performance and would look at him as a third option today. Guys I am not using Dustin May: Yeah, you go right ahead and use him against Tatis and company. Randy Dobnak: Sorry but he feels like his first name should be Larry. Anywho, the Brewers look Verrrrry tempting to pick on every day but this is not a game I would touch Dobnak in. The bats… The bats are waking up. We have two PRIME hitting spots tonight, mostly Coors Field but a couple others which leap out. These four teams are not ranked necessarily in order and I continue to promote spreading out ownership across 3 to 4 teams ( not 8 one offs) but each lineup should be about 3 teams as the core. Trust the rankings by position at the bottom for my preference at each spot. L.A. Dodgers Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger Mookie is feeling it quite well right now and it’s only a matter of time until Bellinger had a stud game. But when we see Luis Perdomo on the slate the players I love to use are RH bats who are sitting between two lefties. What would be an ideal lineup to me today is some form of L-R-L-R-L-R, but good ole Dave Roberts probably doesn’t do that. The reason for this with Perdomo is everyone see’s he struggles with getting hammered by LH bats, but after he gives up a double to one and has another on deck, he’ll be shitting his pants having flashbacks of Nolan Arenado beating the shit out of him while Justin Turner steps in and hammers a 2-0 slider out into the parking lot. Worth noting: The Padres bullpen is very good on paper but carries a high 5+ ERA coming into this game. Most of their strength is on the backend, so if it gets out of hand early they could punt it. Arizona Diamondbacks Starling Marte, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar The rule I have the most success when it comes to Coors Field is play 0 to 4 batters there and not more when we have a normal
The Dongers Club – Sun, Aug 9th
Hey Tampa, try getting your lineup out a little earlier next time… Thanks. SLATE INTRO This is a 7 game common-game slate with each site having a different 8th game on them. FanDuel will lock early today at 12:35 as
The Dongers Club – Sat, Aug 8th
SLATE INTRO Hang on, I have to remove my nuts from my gut after Derek Holland’s first inning on the afternoon slate. OK. That hurt. Eight games on both sites tonight with three games starting at 9:10 PM ET. Lots
NBA DFS DROPPIN DIMES 8/8/2020
Lookin At a 5 game slate starting at 1pm today. The Suns and Blazers still have something to play for today, so they should run the starters. Focus game Blazers/Clippers Blazers need to continue to win in order to keep the playoff dreams alive. Damian Lillard has already started stepping up along with the rest of the team. Kawhi Leonard is sitting out today’s game which will open up usage and minutes for a few other players. Paul George becomes a bette play, JaMychal Green should see an increase in minutes and is a great value play. Ivaca Zubac is in a very good spot as well. Utilize the Heat fro value today. (V)= Value Play POINT GUARDS Mike Conley In the past two games Conley has averaged 34 minutes, 23.5 points and 7.5 assists. Conley is starting to play well as it gets closer to the playoffs. Today he gets the best matchup for a point guard as the Nuggets have been the worst team in the bubble allowing close to 60 FPs. They have been with out Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Wil Barton in the bubble and it has hurt them defensively as well as on the offensive side. This is another good spot for Conley and his price is still reasonable on both side giving him some upside around 7x. OTHER OPTIONS Damian Lillard(Looks like he is going on a tear again. The Blazers need to win in order to pick up the 8th seed. Lillard will do all he can to get them there). Ricky Rubio, Lou Wiliams(No Leonard SOs should get extra run).Monte Morris & Donte DiVincenzo SHOOTING GUARDS Devin Booker The Suns need to win today so we can see Booker play at least 30 minutes and ball out. The Heat have been a tough defense this year, but right now they are a bit beat up. Can expect Booker to go all out today to keep the Suns playoff dreams alive. He has been taking 20+ shots in 3 of the 4 games and assisting at a higher clip than average(9.5 last 2). OTHER OPTIONS Duncan Robinson, Tyler Hero, Andre Iguodala, Dion Waiters SMALL FORWARDS Gary Trent Jr. Trent Jr in the bubble is averaging 30 FPs and playing over 30 minutes a game. Taking over 10 shots a game, getting boards adding a few assist. Kid is doing what he can to help his teAm in the playoff run. Just dropped 43 FPs last game and gets a Clippers team without their best player. OTHER OPTIONS Paul George(No Kawhi Leonard , Jae Crowder. Royce O’Neale POWER FORWARDS Kyle Kuzma Kuzma is starting get some extra run with the Lakers holding on to 1st place and starting to rest players or limit minutes. Should see close to 30 agains and the Pacers have not been the same defensively with some injuries. OTHER OPTIONS JaMychal Green,Michael Porter Jr., Marcus Morris, Zach Collins CENTER Ivaca Zubac The Clippers have been with out Montrezl Harrell in the bubble and have been utilizing Zubac a bit more. Over the past three games he has played at least 24 minutes and returned a minimum of 27 FPs(above value at his current price). In that time frame Zubac has posted back to back double/doubles with a 44.5 FPs high. The last two games with averaging 24% usage rate and 1.65 FPPM. Well above his year average of 16% usage and 1.2 FPPM. Today the Clippers will need his size to complete with Nurkic and the other Blazer bigs, so we should see similar minutes if not a small increase. This is a good spot for Zubac as the Blazers have not done well defensively against the center position this year. OTHER OPTIONS Kelly Olynyk (continues to play at a high level. Still no Butler so he should continue to get his shots), Jusif Nurkic, DeAndre Ayton
The Dongers Club – Sat, Aug 8th – Early
SLATE INTRO Congrats to anyone who had the lock bet of me not holding to my “I won’t be doing two articles per day on split slates” this season bet. To make matters worse the ‘Early’ slates are only 4