NFL Week 1 Panthers at Falcons: DFS & Fantasy Preview
NFL Week 1 Panthers at Falcons: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Falcons – 3 Over/Under: 42 Last year, the Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts, leading to 2,718 yards and 17 scores on the ground. The addition of Bijan Robinson bodes well for repeated success running the ball, but Atlanta needs Desmond Ridder to prove he can move the chains with his arm. Carolina opens up the season with a rookie quarterback (Bryce Young), who had plenty of success in his time in Alabama. The Panthers don’t have a true WR1, with multiple options vying for targets each week. In 2022, they ran the ball 483 times (12th), leading to a fast-moving clock. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Atlanta Falcons Desmond Ridder Over his first four NFL starts, he went 2-2 while averaging 177 passes. He has two career passing touchdowns (none on the ground). I expect him to be active in the run game. He must snipe a rushing score to support his lower-tier salary. The Falcons only have one competitive receiving option (Drake London) in Week 1, as I expect the Falcons to limit the snaps of Kyle Pitts early in the season. A Ridder/London requires about 42.00 points at DraftKings and 38.00 at FanDuel to be in play. I need to see Ridder have success passing the ball before riding in the daily games. Bijan Robinson He has the fourth-highest running back salary at DraftKings and sixth at FanDuel. For the running backs on the main slate in Week 1, Robinson has the highest rating in FP/1000 (2.55) at FanDuel while ranking well at DraftKings (2.68). I view him as a strong play in Week 1. He offers three-down ability with a high probability of scoring vs. the Panthers. With a pair of touchdowns, Robinson has a good chance of being on the winning ticket in his first NFL start. Must start in all formats in the season-long games. Tyler Allgeier Last year, he played well over the final four games (79/431/2 with six catches for 52 yards). The Falcons will rotate him on about 35% of their plays, but Allgeier needs a blowout game to be a viable option at his current price point. Drake London In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, London is the 24th wideout off the table. He played well in his rookie season (72/866/4 on 117 targets), highlighted by his final five starts (6/95, 7/70, 7/96, 5/47, and 6/120). The last four outcomes came with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. London needs a 6/90/1 game to fill his salary bucket. I’m starting London in all leagues that use three wide receiver slots in their starting lineup. Mac Hollins In his fifth season in the NFL, Hollins posted his best year (57/690/4) with the Raiders. Over his previous 65 games, he only had 56 catches for 750 yards and six touchdowns. Hollins had one impact game (8/158/1) in 2022. I don’t see a high volume of targets requiring him to hit on a long score to pay off. Kyle Pitts In his rookie season (68/1,026/1 on 110 targets), Pitts was a big part of the Falcons’ offense. Atlanta threw the ball 573 times in 2021, compared to 415 last season (a drop of 27.6%). Based on this path, Pitts would have finished with 49 catches for 744 yards with the same opportunity in 2022. I don’t see a significant jump in pass attempts for the Falcons this year, and Pitts is coming off a significant knee injury. I expect him to be limited out of the gate, but his salary is low enough to be in play with a 3/40/1 game. Coin toss only while waiting for an update on his role/opportunity in Week 1. Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Carolina Panthers Defense. 18th vs. the run in 2022 with 17 rushing touchdowns 23rd against the pass with 25 scores, 10 interceptions, and 35 sacks Weakness on the defensive line, with the linebacking corps being a strength. Their secondary has some question marks coming into 2023. Carolina Panthers Bryce Young First NFL start after tossing 79 touchdowns and 12 interceptions over his final 27 games at Alabama. He won’t be a significant player rushing the ball. To reach a playable number at DraftKings and FanDuel, Young needs at least 250 passing yards and two scores with some value on the ground. His receiving lacks a star out of the gate, leading to him spreading the ball around to multiple receiving options. Miles Sanders In both formats, Sanders needs about 22.00 fantasy points to fill his fantasy bucket. He reached that level (29.60, 31.00, and 28.50) three times in 202s, helped by scoring six of his 11 touchdowns in those matchups. The Panthers will rotate in a second running back, requiring Sanders to be more active in the passing game (28, 26, and 20 catches over the past three seasons) to post a winning score. He can sometimes hit on a long TD, keeping him alive in some matchups if Carolina can play from the lead. I view him as overpriced in the daily games in Week 1. Chuba Hubbard Hubbard had three catches in three of his final five games in 2022. He led the Panthers in running back snaps from Week 15 to Week 18 last season. His best two games (18.90 and 15.30) in fantasy points in PPR formats barely support his opening salary while taking a back seat in touches
Fantasy Playoff Schedule: Teams to Target
Fantasy Playoff Schedule: Teams to Target Analyzing the schedule is just a small part of a winning fantasy football draft strategy. Fortunately, at FullTime Fantasy, our Strength of Schedule Tool is an invaluable resource for identifying value throughout the season.
Analyzing the schedule is just a small part of a winning fantasy football draft strategy. Fortunately, at FullTime Fantasy, our Strength of Schedule Tool is an invaluable resource for identifying value throughout the season. Of course, winning is paramount. So the Fantasy Playoff Schedule: Teams to Target dives deep to show you which units have the most favorable slate in the crucial Weeks 14-17.
Sometimes potentially treacherous winter weather can be an ally for defenses. Other times, it’s friendly matchups that look appealing. In order to make good on a successful regular season, knowing what teams to target in the fantasy postseason can give you a huge edge in those must-win playoff tilts.
2023’s Top Postseason Schedules
There are two components to winning an overall championship in the high-stakes market. The first is surviving the first 14 weeks to make the postseason. The next step is having your team play at the highest level from Week 15 to 17.
Looking at the schedule late in the year can help a fantasy manager game plan before a draft, but there is no guarantee that an NFL team play up to or down to their expectations.
WHAT TEAMS HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE SCHEDULE IN 2023?
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Week 4 NFL DraftKings Bargains
Oftentimes we build that monster Draftkings lineup for Sunday and the most challenging final roster spot is the cheap or undervalued flex position. When it comes to season-long leagues, you might be the team with Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, and Dalvin Cook and need to play your bench options now. That’s not an issue in DFS games. Let’s look at Draftkings pass-catchers priced at $4000 and under that could be difference-makers. Don’t underestimate ten points when trying to win a Draftkings contest or a seasonal head-to-head game. This week you’ll see many opportunities and values with tight ends, an emerging position in NFL play-calling, but still quite affordable pricing on Draftkings. Wide Receivers Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Tennessee Titans) $3200 – Would you be surprised if Ryan Tannehill features the second-year WR against a raw Jets defense? His underrated Week 3 stat line (4/56/1 on 4 targets) can’t be ignored in this particular matchup vs the Jets. The chunk yards and red-zone looks along with the $3200 price make Westbrook appealing. Westbrook picked up via high-stakes waivers from many successful players so sometimes you should follow the trail. Van Jefferson (Los Angeles Rams) $3900 – Van Jefferson’s DNA bolds well for success given the fact his father (an NFL wide receivers coach for 10-plus years) and he’s finally getting significant playing time. I’ve heard a lot of enthusiasm from players who hold large shares of Jefferson in high stakes. This game should be loose with Stafford vs. Kyler Murray potential and Jefferson could surprise. Coming off of a game where he played 77% of his team’s snaps, Jefferson is in a great spot to produce for minimal cost. K.J. Osbourne (Minnesota Vikings) $3700 – Keep an eye on the injury to Vikings’ tight end Tyler Conklin. In Week 3, Minnesota found a hole in the Seattle secondary and exposed it with Conklin, who took opportunities away from Osborne. Conklin has been dinged up this week. I think the Browns, roster-wise, trump the Vikings and envision Cousins playing catch up. That should lead to ample targets for Osbourne, and a profitable return on investment. DeSean Jackson (Los Angeles Rams) $3800 – In Week 3, Matthew Stafford missed D-Jax twice on long throws that could have been TDs or huge gains. On one of the misconnections, Jackson burned Tampa’s secondary, confirming he still has world-class speed left in his game. Stafford finally connected for a 75 -ard TD and the veteran WR ended with a solid 3/120/1 line. If your league rewards long TDs or you seek the upside DK player in your lineup, roll the dice on D-Jax Braxton Berrios (New York Jets) $3700 – If you like the targets, then Berrios could be a crafty play, especially if Jamison Crowder is out. Throw away last week’s game vs Denver and Berrios is averaging six targets from rookie Zach Wilson. Couple this with a Tennessee pass defense that distinctly ranks in the bottom-4 worst defenses vs. opposing wideouts with 680 yards surrendered so far, and you might have a solid sleeper here in Berrios. Tight Ends Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) $4000 – If you look into Giseicki’s games from last year, you’ll notice he was quite streaky. This week you’ve probably seen Twitter blowing up with “Jacoby Brissett feeds tight ends” examples. The veteran Brissett prefers the check-down game and Giseicki’s 12 targets from Week 3 could be in play, plus Giseicki has a history of big home games. Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills) $3600 – For just $3600, you should put some thought into inserting Knox into your lineups versus Houston. Only Baltimore and Miami have allowed more yards to TEs and the Texans’ 21 receptions to the position thus far is tied for second-most. With thunderstorms expected at Highmark stadium, I think this gives Knox an advantage to the TE who has scored TDs in two straight and his a ripe matchup. Austin Hooper (Cleveland Browns) $3700 – At the conclusion of the 2020 season, when the Browns were thin at WR, Baker Mayfield started to lean on Austin Hooper and that formula is back in play in Week 4. Once again these types of player selections have a goal of 10-plus points, which can be the difference. Hooper has hit this mark consecutive weeks and the matchup with the Vikings bolds well, as Minnesota has allowed 222 yards to TEs, 7th most. Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles $3500 – Ertz is coming off a Week 3 performance that demonstrated his potential in three phases: targets (7), yards (53), and a touchdown. When considering a lower-end TE, not being TD-dependent helps mitigate risk. Kansas City has allowed 232 receiving yards to TEs through three games, fifth-most in the league. If you value game script data, then Ertz is also appealing. The matchup with the Chiefs should see plenty of scoring potential and has an over/under of 54.5, the highest of the Week 4 slate. Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys) $3400 – For my money, Dalton Schultz was definitely keyed in with Dak Prescott in his Monday Night Football breakout game- an outing that won people lots of money. Talk about riding the hot hand as Schultz emerged as one of Dallas’ main receiving threats in the absence of Michael Gallup. Both Dallas and Carolina are hot and have aggressive play-calling, which gives the game a leg up in terms of desired players in specific matchups in Week 4. The $3400 price is kinda disrespectful to boot. The 2021 NFL season is well underway but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates. JOIN OUR MAILING LIST! GET THE LATEST ARTICLES & UPDATES Subscribe to our FREE newsletter – Breaking Fantasy news & site
MLB DFS – Lineup Construction
MLB DFS expert Steve Renner gives an overview on one method used to build a solid main lineup