2025 Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview
2025 Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview Preceding Washington, head coach Dan Campbell showed how much difference one person can make in reinventing a franchise. The Lions’ 2025 offseason was a calculated effort to build on their 15-2 season and NFC No. 1 seed, despite a playoff loss to the Commanders. Camebll and GM Brad Holmes prioritized depth to address 2024’s injury-plagued defense (ranked 18th in EPA/play), while new offensive coordinator John Morton replaced Ben Johnson, bringing a less trick-play-heavy scheme (10.8% play-action rate). With $40M in cap space, Holmes made strategic signings, re-signings, and drafted seven players, focusing on the defensive line and secondary. Key losses like Carlton Davis and Za’Darius Smith were offset by health recoveries (Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill) and additions like D.J. Reed. Jared Goff is locked in as the starter, with a 69.2% completion rate and 7.8 yards per attempt. He comes off a career-best 4,629 passing yards and a 37-touchdown season. It resulted in an overall QB9 finish. But losing Johnson is a concern. Goff should be viewed as a borderline fantasy QB1, but expect some regression. RBs Jahmyr Gibbs (1,929 total yards, 20 TD) and David Montgomery (1,076 yards, 11 TDs) form an elite tandem. The unit’s 4.9 yards per carry (6th in NFL) thrives in Morton’s zone-heavy run game, with Gibbs’ 5.4 yards after contact driving explosiveness. The Lions are expected to stick with their successful rotation, with Gibbs having an outside shot at repeating last year’s overall RB1 finish. Montgomery is a solid RB2 who comes with a significant discount. Amon-Ra St. Brown saw his targets and catch numbers dip, but retained top-5 value thanks to a career-best 12 touchdown grabs. With two straight overall WR3 finishes and a WR7 showing in 2022, St. Brown is one of the safest first-round bets in all of fantasy. Jameson Williams was the subject of trade rumors but will be back as the club’s No. 2. Williams broke 1,000 yards and ranked 12th in yards after catch despite ranking just 51st in target share (18.9 percent). Second-round pick Isaiah TeSlaa will push Tim Patrick for WR3 duties. Whoever wins that job has sneaky late-round sleeper appeal. Under Johnson, Detroit ranked third (32.2 percent) in utilizing 12 formations. However, Sam LaPorta is the real star here, ranking 6th in receiving yards (726), 3rd in deep targets (9), and 5th with 19 red-zone targets. LaPorta didn’t replicate his rookie totals, but is still an elite option who will come with a discounted price. Fantasy Grade: A QB Goff, Jared, DET [QB1] Everything peaked for Jared Goff last year, but the loss of OC Ben Johnson complicates his chances of matching his career-best numbers. Goff ranked 6th in QBR (68.4) and 3rd in red zone attempts per game, benefiting from Detroit’s aggressive offensive scheme. While he offers minimal rushing upside, his consistency is bolstered by elite weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. The Lions’ 2025 QB strength of schedule ranks 17th, suggesting a neutral but manageable slate. Despite the departure of Johnson, Goff remains a reliable weekly starter in most formats. ADVICE: Unlikely to repeat last year’s numbers, but capable of being a low-end QB1. RB Gibbs, Jahmyr, DET [RB1] It was Jahmyr Gibbs, not Saquon Barkley, who led all running backs in total fantasy points. Gibbs produced 1,912 scrimmage yards and led the league with 20 total touchdowns. With David Montgomery sidelined, Gibbs feasted in Weeks 16-18, accumulating 487 scrimmage yards and scoring six touchdowns to secure countless fantasy championships. Montgomery will be back, but Gibbs scored more than 12 fantasy points in every game, giving him the highest floor of any player. That makes him, arguably, the safest bet to warrant consideration for the fantasy 1.01. ADVICE: The reigning RB1 is poised to post top-3 fantasy numbers once again in his third season. RB Montgomery, David, DET [RB2] David Montgomery delivered a strong 2024 campaign, finishing as the RB18 in PPR formats despite missing three games due to a torn MCL. He accumulated 775 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 185 carries, complemented by 36 receptions for 341 yards, averaging 15.8 PPR points per game, which ranked 16th among running backs. Montgomery’s role as Detroit’s primary goal-line back remained secure, even with Jahmyr Gibbs’ increased involvement. The Lions’ high-powered offense, averaging 32.8 points per game, provided ample scoring opportunities. With a full recovery expected for 2025, Montgomery should continue to be a reliable RB2 option, particularly in non-PPR and half-PPR formats. ADVICE: Steady producer who remains a strong RB2. WR St. Brown, Amon-Ra, DET [WR1] St. Brown delivered another incredible season in 2024. He was the WR3 in total and per-game scoring while also leading the NFL in red-zone receptions. However, his target share dipped to 23 percent over the final seven games. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left for Chicago, and that could be cause for concern. Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta pose significant threats to St. Brown’s target share in 2025, possibly capping upside. St. Brown is talented and has a rapport with QB Jared Goff that is undeniable, and that should be enough to keep him in the elite WR1 conversation. ADVICE: Reliable WR1–Look to draft in the late first/early second. WR Williams, Jameson, DET [WR2] There were rumors that Jameson Williams was on the trade block, but returning to the Lions keeps the fourth-year speedster in the upside WR2 conversation. Williams broke out in 2024 (58 receptions, 1,001 yards, eight total TDs in 15 games). His 17.3 yards per catch and 21-percent target share (post-suspension) highlight elite efficiency, ranking 3rd in YAC per reception. Despite a crowded offense with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, new OC John Morton projects a “huge” season. Williams’ boom-or-bust nature (seven top-24 weeks) and a potential role shift under Morton make him a WR3 with WR1 upside. Draft as a top-30 wideout in 2025. ADVICE: High-upside weekly WR2/3 with potential to score from anywhere on the field. WR TeSlaa, Isaac, DET [WR3] A
Saturday Playoff Preview
Saturday Playoff Preview The NFL Divisional Round kicks off Saturday with a pair of high-profile matchups. FullTime Fantasy‘s Saturday Playoff Preview breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective. And just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean the fun is over. FFWC Playoff Fantasy Football is a great way to extend the fantasy fun and win amazing prizes! Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) Time: 4:30 Eastern Line: Chiefs -9 Total: 41.5 Money Line: Houston +395, Kansas City -500 Texans Offense Houston’s offense has been stagnant for a while. However, DeMeco Ryans’s D stepped up huge in the Wild Card round, leading the Texans to a 20-point victory. Things won’t be as easy in the Divisional round, as a trip to frigid Missouri to face the defending champs is on deck. It will take a near-perfect game from C.J. Stroud to give the Texans any chance. Stroud and company played in this building five weeks ago, and Stroud threw a pair of interceptions in a 27-19 loss. His play has regressed in Year Two, and facing a well-rested KC defense will be tough in freezing conditions. Although there is some optimism about Houston covering, Stroud is a lesser option in this four-game slate. RB Joe Mixon has cooled after a torrid start. He did rush for 106 yards and a score last week against a formidable Chargers defense. However, facing the Chiefs will be much more difficult. Opposing running backs averaged a league-low 16.2 fantasy points per game versus Kansas City. Mixon will play a high snap share and can contribute as a receiver but he’ll have to score a touchdown to pay off as a DFS option. It’s Nico Collins or bust at receiver for Houston. Collins has an over/under of 83.5 yards and is +180 to score per Vegas. However, our RDA* projections have Collins as the WR3 in this slate thanks to volume. Also, if Houston falls behind by multiple scores, that only favors Collins. Additionally, the Chiefs were below average in terms of surrendering fantasy points to enemy wideouts, so we’re signing off on Nico. After that, Houston offers up little more than DFS dart throws. Robert Woods caught three balls for 19 yards against KC in Week 16. John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson also don’t inspire a ton of confidence and Jared Wayne was just called up from the practice squad. At tight end, Dalton Schultz had a nice game against KC, snagging five balls for 45 yards and a touchdown. And only three teams allowed more fantasy points to the position than the Chiefs, so our RDA* projections (4.6/43/.33) have Schultz as a top-4 PPR option in Week 20. Chiefs Offense Houston ceded the sixth-fewest passing yards in 2024 and they did a solid job on Patrick Mahomes in Week 16. In that contest, Mahomes threw for 260 yards and one touchdown. However, Mahomes did run for 33 and an additional score to post good fantasy numbers. Vegas has Mahomes projected to total 277.5 yards (23.5 rushing) and he’s -144 to go OVER 1.4 touchdowns. KC’s backfield has resolved into a frustrating committee. However, there is a chance that the club has been saving Isiah Pacheco for another Super Bowl run. Vegas has Pacheco projected to produce 51.5 scrimmage yards and he’s +150 to score. However, our RDA* projections have Pacheco at 62 yards with a 37% chance of hitting pay dirt. Kareem Hunt will also be involved. However, the question remains how much? Hunt out-touched Pacheco against Houston previously and found the end zone. But Vegas has Hunt projected to have fewer yards and be less likely to score than Pacheco. Xavier Worthy has been Kansas City’s leading receiver, including catching a team-high seven balls (11 targets) for 65 and a TD versus Houston last month. Our RDA* projections are just under that but Worthy remains a solid start in Playoff Fantasy Leagues. Week 16 was Hollywood Brown’s first game with the club and he immediately commanded a healthy eight targets. As good as Houston’s pass defense was, they did allow opposing wideouts to score 21 touchdowns, so we like Brown and DeAndre Hopkins as quality options. Houston also allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends. While Travis Kelce has been quiet of late (at least by his standards), he tends to show up big in the postseason. Our RDA* projections have Kelce posting 14.2 PPR points, putting his as the TE2 in the slate. Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2) Time: 8:00 Eastern Line: Detroit -9 Total: 55.5 Money Line: Washington +400, Detroit -550 Commanders Offense The AFC kicks off the day but it’s the NFC game that has the fantasy appeal. The upstart Commanders fly into Detroit to take on the conference’s top seed. And Vegas is expecting fireworks with that outrageous 55.5-point total. That puts Jayden Daniels near the top of the Week 20 QB rankings. However, that is not exactly new territory for Daniels, who finished his rookie season as fantasy’s QB5. Detroit has had issues slowing down opposing QBs all season. The Lions allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position, including the fourth-most rushing yards (454) and second-most rushing TDs (6). Therefore, Daniels is our QB3 for the week and worth every bit of his lofty DFS price tag. The matchup for the ground game isn’t as appealing. Detroit surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs even with myriad injuries. Washington will utilize two backs, but it’s Austin Ekeler who leads the way in RDA* projections, mainly due to his pass-catching prowess. Brian Robinson can also factor in as a receiver and is just as likely to punch in a short-yardage score. However, Vegas projects Ekler to have one more scrimmage yard, 51-50. Proceed with caution. As explosive as Washington’s offense is, Terry McLaurin has been the only reliable wide receiver. McLaurin posted WR7 numbers in the regular season, averaging 15.9 PPR points per contest.
Monday Night Preview
Monday Night Preview: Lions vs. 49ers There is one final game left on this Championship Week 17 slate. And from a fantasy football perspective, it’s a huge one. The Detroit Lions are traveling to San Francisco to face the 49ers and the rosters are loaded with fantasy talent. However, with rumors that the Lions could rest starters in the game, the fantasy title implications are huge. Although the 14-2 Vikings have temporarily moved into first place, the NFC North title will officially be on the line Sunday night when Minnesota travels to Detroit. The winner of that game will secure the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. That makes next week’s primetime contest a must-see TV event for football fans. However, it will also impact tonight’s game. This game is largely meaningless for Detroit. Additionally, the Niners have already been eliminated from postseason contention. Therefore, there are rumors that Dan Campbell could elect to sit his key starters at some point tonight. That will greatly impact any remaining fantasy championship games that are still to be decided by this final contest of the week. Of course, Campbell is known for being unconventional and could easily choose to keep his foot on the gas. It all adds some intrigue to a game that was already vital. Here are some thoughts on how fantasy managers could approach this Monday Night Preview between the 49ers and Lions San Francisco 49ers The formula for the Niners is simple. Eliminated from the playoffs last week, San Francisco is playing for pride. Kyle Shanahan will not rest starters and will look to conclude a disappointing campaign on a positive note. Expect the starters to play their normal roles and allotment of snaps. QB Brock Purdy will be a QB1 facing a defense that is allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Additionally, Detroit’s defense has been decimated by injuries. Also, if Campbell does limit his defensive starter’s snaps, Purdy could rack up some solid production. There is also good news in the backfield as starter Issac Guerendo is expected back after missing Week 16. Guernedo (hamstring/foot) was removed from the injury report. Detroit’s elite run-stopping defense is starting to fall apart. That sets up Guerendo to see a lot of volume as a strong RB2 play. Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel are also strong options against a defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position. Both are solid top-20 options in our Week 17 projections. And at tight end, George Kittle remains an every-week elite starter. However, no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to tight end than these Lions, so expectations should be somewhat tempered. Fanduel line: 5/65 (11.5 pts.) Detroit Lions Things are more complicated for fantasy managers who have been riding Detroit players to their fantasy championship matchup. Unfortunately, unless you have pivots on San Francisco’s roster, there isn’t a lot you can do. However, daily fantasy players might want to take note of some of the recent player lines and odds movements. QB Jared Goff doesn’t run much and avoids hits. He has less chance of getting hurt and could easily play the entire game. Especially if Campbell stays true to his aggressive nature and wants to exact some revenge for last year’s NFC Championship Game defeat at the hands of Shanahan and the Niners. Goff’s passing line (247.5) hasn’t decreased notably and he is still -192 to go OVER 1.5 touchdown passes. At running back, Jahmyr Gibbs‘s rushing prop has dropped five yards down to 79.5. He remains an elite option and can make an impact in just a half. Even if there is some risk of Gibbs being limited, fantasy managers have no choice but to stick with a top-3 back in this slate. Even if Gibbs was limited, there isn’t much clarity behind him. Craig Reynolds is the next man up but isn’t anywhere near the talent that David Montgomery was. Reynolds has some size and could be used in short-yardage, but he has only recorded one catch all season. Fanduel line: 83 rushing yds., 4/22 receiving (14.5 pts.) After Reynolds, Sione Vaki has mostly played special teams and has nine touches all season. Jermar Jefferson out-touched Vaki last week and could be an interesting (and inexpensive) DFS dart throw. Amon-Ra St. Brown is too good to sit. Even if there were viable replacements. St. Brown’s receiving prop has only dipped three yards, down to 73.5. Fanduel line: 7/71 (14.1 pts.) Jameson Williams also remains a decent option but the matchup isn’t great. San Francisco plays disciplined defense and has surrendered just 12 touchdowns to enemy wideouts all season. Fanduel line: 4/52 (9.2 pts.) If available, Tim Patrick would make a savvy waiver add as insurance to St. Brown or Williams. Allen Robinson and Tom Kennedy are next in line but are well off the fantasy radar except as DFS dart throws. Tight end Sam LaPorta has been hot lately and has a fantasy score prop line of 11 PPR points. That puts him in TE1 range. Fantasy managers looking for other options could consider Brock Wright, who has flashed some red-zone chemistry with Goff. TL;DR – We’re skeptical that the Lions will rest starters enough to justify taking your studs out of championship lineups. Thanks for reading our Monday Night Preview! The 2024 NFL season is almost over but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord! All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates. JOIN OUR MAILING LIST! GET THE LATEST ARTICLES AND UPDATES Subscribe to our FREE newsletter – Breaking Fantasy news & site updates! Like and share our new Facebook page! Be sure to pay attention to our giveaways for your shot at some sweet prizes!
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14 The fantasy postseason push opens with a premiere game between NFC North contenders. Coincidentally, both teams played last Thursday and come off a full allotment of rest. This should be an exciting game, loaded
The fantasy postseason push opens with a premiere game between NFC North contenders. Coincidentally, both teams played last Thursday and come off a full allotment of rest. This should be an exciting game, loaded with fantasy-relevant players. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 14 covers all fantasy-relevant for the game.
The Green Bay Packers have won three straight and sit at 9-3. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 4-1 on the road but has struggled against NFC North foes, posting a 1-2 record in divisional play. One of those defeats came one month ago against these same Lions. Evening the score is crucial for the Packers to remain in the hunt for the top overall seed.
Meanwhile, the Lions keep rolling. Detroit has won 10 consecutive games and leads the NFL in scoring. The Lions have been particularly potent at home, where Dan Campbell’s team is averaging over 35 points per game.
Vegas is predicting a good one. Detroit is favored by just 3.5 points and the total of 51.5 is the highest figure of the Week 14 slate.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| Detroit Lions | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
These two NFC North rivals are closely matched. They have evenly split their last 10 meetings. Both teams are top-3 in overall offense, top-5 in rushing, and are among the three most potent big-play units.
They are also fairly even on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions allow the second-fewest points per game while Green Bay is 10th. Both squads are top eight against the run, which is a fascinating dynamic with both teams running the ball exceptionally well on offense.
In fact, in their last 10 matchups, these two teams are separated by just .1 yards per rush.
Green Bay and Detroit have a combined record of 30-6. Half of those losses came to NFC North foes.
Green Bay won 29-22 at Ford Field last season and the Lions are looking for payback in a statement game.
Should be a good one.
Green Bay Offense
The Packers lost at home to Detroit last month 24-14. However, the Packers largely beat themselves with a pick-6, six drops, and…
How will Thursday’s Packers vs. Lions game go?
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🦃 Thursday Football Preview: Week 13 🦃
Thursday Football Preview: Week 13 Happy Thanksgiving! It’s hard to believe we’ve already reached Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season. The holiday slates are always wonderful, with a day filled with family, food, and football! FullTime Fantasy’s Thursday Football
How will Thursday’s Thanksgiving games go?
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Oddsmakers List Veteran WR To Lead NFL In Receptions
Oddsmakers List Veteran WR To Lead NFL In Receptions The latest in our series of highlighting players that are witnessing noteworthy recognition by oddsmakers results in focusing on an emerging fourth-year wideout who is shockingly being predicted to lead the NFL in receptions in 2024. SERIES: Big Expectations For Rookie RB | Elite RB Vegas is Fading | RB Ascending Up Early Draft Boards | WR Who May Struggle To Fulfill ADP value A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model back in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook. The Best of the Best Despite being listed by oddsmakers in the top two spots to lead the league in receiving yards (1,375.5) and touchdowns (9.5), CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill do not hold that honor in the receptions market. Instead, that distinction belongs to Lions star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown. Fresh off career highs in receptions (119), yards (1,510), and touchdowns (10) the talented wide receiver is being power-ranked by oddsmakers stunningly ahead of both Lamb and Hill. Brown, who finished tied for second last season with Hill hauling in 119 receptions, owns the highest betting projection for catches in 2024 at 107.5. Lamb, who led the NFL last season with 135 catches, is listed at 105.5 followed by Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson all owning a betting demand of 100.5. AMON-RA ST. BROWN 70-YARD TD 📺: #MINvsDET on FOX 📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/rUyhJjUi0c — NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024 Obviously, fantasy managers are high on the high-powered Lions offense investing premium draft capital in ASB in early FFWC drafts. The elite WR1 owns an ADP of 5.3 / WR4 never coming off the board lower than 1.8. ASB, a near consensus Top 5 pick in re-drafts, as well as New York Jets star wideout Garrett Wilson, joined exclusive company after impressive 2023 campaigns. Prior to last season only four wide receivers since 2000 had recorded 175-plus catches and 2,000-plus receiving yards across their first two seasons: Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr, Michael Thomas, and Jaylen Waddle. It should be no shock to see both ASB and Wilson come off the board early in the first round of drafts. VEGAS ODDSMAKERS PREDICTING ELITE PRODUCTION A deeper dive reveals that ASB scored double-digit fantasy points in 16 of 17 regular season games last season on the strength of nine 100-plus yard receiving efforts as well as 13 games of six-plus receptions. Only one word describes that: ELITE. Oddsmakers, who initially installed ASB with a receiving yards betting projection of 1200.5, have adjusted the 24-year-old wideout up to a betting demand of 1250.5 at DraftKings. While only moving his projection minimally, the most highlighted move involves listing ASB ahead of Lamb, Hill, and Chase in the overall receptions betting market at 107.5. “Anytime a player is listed above the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase, in any betting market, fantasy managers need to take note.” – Frankie Taddeo While ASB has displayed he can “flip or leap” defenders on the field, he still has not been able to leapfrog Lamb or CMC in any recent Circa Championship draft this summer – finding a peak of 1.3 overall. Amon-Ra St. Brown flips his way to a three-possession lead ‼️ 📺: #DENvsDET on @NFLNetwork 📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/kw1DwqjVEs — NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023 ASB has proved to be extremely durable playing at least 16 games in all three of his seasons in the NFL and his production has increased every year. His receptions have improved from 90 to 106 to 119, his yards from 912 to 1,161 to 1,515, and his receiving touchdowns from 5 to 6 to 10. That trajectory tells us Jared Goff’s top target is primed for new career highs especially if he receives 145-plus targets for the third straight campaign. ASB (28.6%) led the team in target share followed by tight end Sam LaPorta (20.9%). After those elite receiving weapons there was a massive drop off as no other Lions player finished above 12%. That trend should continue again in 2024 as the current Detroit wideout depth chart consisting of Kalif Raymond, Jameson Williams, Tre’Quan Smith, and Donovan Peoples-Jones pose no real threats to derail his alpha target demand. Last season the Lions ranked 5th in points scored (461), 3rd in total offense (6,712 yards), 2nd in offensive touchdowns (57), and fourth in points per drive (2.42). Fantasy managers, picking in the middle of the first round of drafts, should invest in shares of ASB as he will be playing in a prolific Top 5 NFL offense in 2024 – more importantly, owning the majority of the target share. For the past 15 years, Football Contest Proxy has provided the leading service to submit picks in major Las Vegas football contests from anywhere in the world and built FootballContest.com into the top online destination for football contest info. All you need to do to enter is sign up in person sometime before football season kicks off. FCP does the rest as your proxy – it really is that easy. Simply plan your trip to Vegas and schedule a time with FCP to get signed up for whatever contest(s) you want to enter. As a proxy partner of FullTimeFantasy, you can also SAVE $50 through September 2 by clicking here. Just enter promo code FANTASY at checkout for instant savings, so make your best pick and go with the pros at FootballContest.com!
2024 Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview
2024 Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview In Detroit, the ‘Lovable Losers’ moniker has been replaced by a sense of bravado courtesy of head coach Dan Campbell. Last season, the Lions maintained a three-score lead at halftime of the NFC title game
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Conference Championship Playoff Preview
By the time Sunday evening rolls around, we will know who will play in Super Bowl LVIII. In the AFC, Kansas City tries to repeat as the champions but must go through the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens. Meanwhile, in the NFC, Detroit hopes to make their first Super Bowl appearance by upsetting the San Francisco 49ers. Our Conference Championship Playoff Preview looks at the games from a fantasy and sports betting lens. Using our RDA* projections, we can break down each game to find the statistical edge that can give us a leg up in playoff fantasy and daily fantasy lineups. Also, we can determine the best bets to make. Before you place those winning bets, our partner Edge Boost can help you double your entries and payouts! Click below to increase your winnings today. Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) at Baltimore Ravens (14-4) Time: 3:00 Eastern Line: Ravens -3.5 Total: 44.5 Money Line: Chiefs +170, Ravens -220 Kansas City Offense The defending champs got by the Bills despite being out-gained and losing the time-of-possession battle 37-22. Patrick Mahomes compiled a 131.6 QB Rating in Buffalo, throwing for 215 and a pair of scores. Unfortunately for Mahomes, this Baltimore defense is much more formidable. The Ravens boasted the top-scoring defense in football and ranked third in limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks. Additionally, the Chiefs still haven’t gotten much out of their wide receivers and Baltimore has surrendered just nine touchdown passes in 10 home games. Of course, you never count out Andy Reid and more Mahomes magic. Despite the tough matchup, Mahomes is still a viable option as a four-point underdog. RB Isiah Pacheco ran for 97 yards and a score in Buffalo. Although the Ravens have the NFL’s top run defense, Baltimore allowed a 100-yard rusher in four of their last five regular-season games. Also, Pachecho played 72% of KC’s snaps last week and is a capable receiver. Pacheco’s volume looks good, but the potential absence of Joe Thuney is worrisome. Rashee Rice has become the only reliable wideout in Kansas City’s offense. Baltimore allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the position and will undoubtedly make Rice a priority, as the Bills did last week. Rice is the only wideout in Kansas City that can be viewed as better than a low-cost dart throw. Those boom-or-bust options (with much more emphasis on BUST) for the Chiefs include Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman. MVS and Watson play far more snaps. Kadarius Toney is OUT. The only other viable pass-catcher for the Chiefs is TE Travis Kelce. Kelce broke out of this slump in Buffalo, snagging a pair of scores and carrying fantasy playoff leagues. Baltimore only surrendered three touchdowns to tight ends this season and Kelce had his lowest TD output in four years. However, he’s by far the safest bet for fantasy managers looking for a KC stack. Baltimore Offense As clutch as Kelce was last week, his performance pales in comparison to what Lamar Jackson did against Houston. Overcoming a bland 10-10 tie at halftime, Jackson rushed for 100 yards and totaled four touchdowns to carry fantasy lineups and his Ravens to victory. However, the Chiefs present a tougher challenge. KC ranked second in the NFL in defense this season, including fourth versus the pass and second in points allowed. The modest over/under of 44.5 in an AFC Championship is indicative of the kind of battle this game is projected to be. Jackson remains the best bet to lead the Ravens in rushing. Gus Edwards is the de facto starter. But Edwards isn’t much of a factor in the passing game and is highly touchdown-dependent. Justice Hill led the backfield in snaps (39) last week and could factor in as an outlet receiver. Dalvin Cook only played in garbage time. But Cook has three-down ability and looks like a sneaky DFS punt play. Only two teams allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than Kansas City. CB L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed is one of the top coverage corners in football and will pose a major problem for Zay Flowers. Sneed’s stellar play was integral in the Chiefs’ ability to consistently shut down opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Houston was able to limit Flowers to 8.1 fantasy points last week. Facing a far superior KC secondary, expecting a rebound seems like a tough proposition. Odell Beckham only played 20 snaps last week. He was out-snapped and out-targeted by Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor. If Mark Andrews can return, he’ll be a top-3 tight end in this slate. However, Isaiah Likely has fared very well in relief and is more than capable of making an impact. Projecting the Chiefs to slow down Baltimore’s wideouts makes both Baltimore tight ends viable plays in this game. The Ravens have won seven of eight and their strengths match up well with Kansas City. I’m not sure that the Chiefs will be able to score enough points in this one. It feels like Lamar Jackson is finally poised to win the big one. Ravens -3.5 Detroit Lions (14-5) at San Francisco 49ers (13-5) Time: 6:30 PM Eastern Line: San Francisco -7 Total: 51.5 Money Line: Lions +270, 49ers -340 Detroit Offense This is Detroit’s first road trip since Week 17 when they lost in Dallas by a controversial single point. We’re all aware of the home/road splits for Jared Goff. They were not as pronounced in 2023, but Goff must overcome that narrative if he hopes to keep Deroit’s season alive. Overall, San Francisco ranked eighth in defense and 14th versus the pass. The Niners picked off a league-leading 22 passes. However, a lot of that was gamescript-related. The 49ers allowed the third-most attempts due to playing with a lead often. Our RDA+ projections have Goff as the lowest-scoring signal-caller this week. But he makes an interesting option as a contrarian DFS option. Detroit will attempt to establish their running game to set up play-action opportunities downfield. However, San Francisco ranked third against the run. Expect David Montgomery to get the first drive and act as Detroit’s power back. The Niners did not allow a
Jody Smith’s Rankings: Conference Championship
Jody Smith’s Rankings: Conference Championship FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is the home
FullTime Fantasy has been synonymous with accurate fantasy football rankings for years. Our rankings have garnered numerous industry accolades, with several top-5 finishes in season-long, weekly, and even sports betting accuracy. This is the home of our FullTime Fantasy Football Rankings: Conference Championship.
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Fantasy Football Rankings: Conference Championship
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Division Round Playoff Preview: Sunday
By the time this slate is over, we will know which two teams will battle it out for their respective conference championships. Our Division Round Playoff Preview: Sunday looks at the Bucs vs. Lions and Chiefs at Bills contests from a fantasy football and sports betting lens. Using our RDA* projections, we can break down each game to find the statistical edge that can give us a leg up in playoff fantasy and daily fantasy lineups. Also, we can determine the best bets to make. Before you place those winning bets, our partner Edge Boost can help you double your entries and payouts! Click below to increase your winnings today. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) at Detroit Lions (13-5) Time: 3:00 Eastern Line: Lions -7 Total: 49.5 Money Line: Buccaneers +250, Lions -300 Tampa Bay Offense Few people projected the Buccaneers to be playing in Week 20 when Tampa was sitting at 5-7. However, behind a strong defense and the heady play of QB Baker Mayfield, the Bucs rallied to win six of their last seven games and earned their spot into the divisional round of the NFC postseason. Their reward is a trip to Detroit to take on the surging Lions. Detroit boasted the league’s No. 2 run defense in 2023. Meanwhile, Tampa ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing. Subsequently, don’t expect a big rushing performance out of RB Rachaad White. However, White ranked fourth among all running backs with 64 grabs, so he’s plenty capable of producing PPR points in a game with a solid over/under of 49.5 The matchup is much more appealing for the receivers. Mike Evans led the league with 13 touchdown grabs but went scoreless in Week 6 against this secondary. Chris Godwin fared better in that game, snagging 6-of-7 targets for 77 yards. Both are solid options in a game where Tampa is projected to score over 21 points. Our RDA* projections have Tampa’s dynamic duo as top-5 wideouts this week. WR3 Trey Palmer was out-snapped by David Moore last week against the Eagles. Both have some appeal as cheap DFS options against a defense that yielded the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers per FullTime Fantasy’s points-allowed tool. Tight end Cade Otton saw a career-high 11 targets last week. He won’t play that big of a role against a Detroit defense that is more credible defending tight ends. However, all four of Otton’s touchdowns this season came on the road, which gives him some appeal as a low-cost flex option in daily lineups. Detroit Offense We all know Jared Goff tends to play better at home. However, Goff’s season-high total of 353 passing yards came back in Week 6 against the Buccaneers. Except that game was in Florida. Our updated RDA* projections for Week 20 predict Goff to have the most passing yards (268) of any signal caller this weekend. This game should feature a fearsome battle in the trenches. Detroit ranked fifth in rushing. Meanwhile, the Bucs ranked fifth against the run. Regardless of the imposing matchup, we’re not shying away from inserting Jahmyr Gibbs into our lineups. Gibbs has produced seven touchdowns in Detroit’s last six games. Additionally, both of his 100-plus yard rushing efforts came in this building. David Montgomery is also a top-4 play in our RDA* projections. But, it should be noted that Montgomery did nothing against Tampa Bay in their previous meetings- a game where Gibbs didn’t play. Our No. 1 wide receiver this week in full PPR formats is Amon-Ra St. Brown. With 18-plus PPR points in five straight, St. Brown is on a heater. Also, he destroyed the Bucs back in Week 6, snagging 12-of-15 targets for 124 yards and a score. With Kalif Raymond ruled OUT, Josh Reynolds will act as Detroit’s safety valve. Jameson Williams also has appeal as the Lions’ big-play threat. TE Sam LaPorta is questionable but played just fine last week. Only Denver allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than Tampa this season, so LaPorta looks appealing once word breaks that he is good-to-go. Many of the defenders who helped the Buccaneers win a title just three years ago make up the core of a Bucs’ defense that allowed the seventh-fewest points in football this season. Tampa ranked fifth against the run and the Buccaneers were a sparkling 8-1 against the spread on the road. Subsequently, I think they can keep this to a one-score game. Bucs +7 Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) at Buffalo Bills (12-6) Time: 6:30 PM Eastern Line: Buffalo -3 Total: 45.5 Money Line: Chiefs +130, Bills -150 Kansas City Offense The 2023 Chiefs are a long way off from last year’s championship roster. While the defense has more than lived up to the billing, it’s surprisingly been the offense that has regressed. Kansas City fell to ninth in yards and 15th in scoring. QB Patrick Mahomes had his worst fantasy season and tossed a career-high 14 picks. Also, this will be the first road playoff game of his career and it comes against a red-hot Buffalo team eager to avenge recent postseason losses to Mahomes. RDA* projections expect a big game out of Isiah Pacheco. The sophomore sensation is projected to have the second-most rushing attempts this week and comes in as our No. 2 running back. Pacheco ranked 19th with 4.5 yards per carry and should be able to find plenty of running room against a Bills’ defense that was 27th in that category. As has been the case all season, the receiving corps is uncertain. Rashee Rice has been the only dependable option for Mahomes. Meanwhile, Buffalo ranked seventh against the pass. Rice is a solid option, but KC’s other wideout are all gambles with extremely low floors. Buffalo allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Plus, with Travis Kelce‘s struggles, it’s not the best matchup. Kelce’s DFS salary makes him a cost-prohibitive choice, even if he is one of the safest starts of the slate. Buffalo Offense Only three teams allowed fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks than Kansas City. However, Josh Allen has been matchup-proof. Particularly at home. Allen has scored