2024 Tennessee Titans Fantasy Preview

A new era dawns in Tennessee. The Titans’ surprising dismissal of Mike Vrabel opens the door for Brian Callahan to begin his NFL coaching career. It’s a daunting challenge for Callahan, who takes over a team that bottomed out in 2023. Tenneesse ranked 29th in passing last season and allowed their star RB to leave.

The process begins with sophomore signal caller Will Levis.”My relationship with (Will), his relationship with me and Nick (Holz) and (QBs coach) Bo (Hardegree) is going to be really a critical factor in our success,” Callahan said about Levis. Having the confidence of your new head coach is promising, but Levis struggled as a rookie.

After a monumental NFL debut, Levis went 2-6 as the starter, averaging 207 passing yards per game. Levis completed just 58.4% of his attempts and tossed four touchdowns in his final seven starts. These weren’t unexpected growing pains for the 2023 second-rounder, but Levis has a lot to prove before he becomes a fantasy option.

Fortunately, the Titans made significant investments to surround their young QB with a talented supporting cast. The biggest splash was signing WR Calvin Ridley to a four-year $92 million deal. Ridley (76/1,016/8) was a top-20 fantasy wideout last season and gives Tennessee a pair of outstanding perimeter wideouts with DeAndre Hopkins.

Callahan’s offenses in Cincinnati were productive enough to field a pair of solid receivers annually. If Callahan can coach up Levis, Hopkins, and Ridley should each command a target share north of 25% and contend for WR2 numbers.

Treylon Burks has been limited to 22 games in two seasons and his career arch is trending toward bust. Only 31% of Burks’s routes came from the slot in 2023, making it hard to envision him making an impact there. Kyle Phillips (89% slot rate) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 52%) will mix in as auxiliary pieces.

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo ranked 15th with 54 grabs a year ago. However, Okonkwo was featured far closer to the line of scrimmage and only scored one TD. His volume should be fine but the third-year tight end is merely a solid TE2 for fantasy purposes.

With Derrick Henry in Baltimore, the Titans signed Tony Pollard to take over. Pollard was a significant disappointment in 2023 and it is difficult to foresee him improving his fantasy output behind a transitioning offensive line. Additionally, Pollard will split touches with second-year runner Tyjae Spears, who ranked ninth at the position with 70 targets last season in a reserve role.

Tennesse’s rebuild is just beginning and Will Levis is still a major question mark. Despite the presence of some solid players, that makes the Titans a risky bet on draft day.

Quarterbacks

QB WILL LEVIS – BYE WEEK FILL-IN

Outside of his monumental debut in Week 8, Will Levis had a forgettable rookie season. In his other eight starts, Levis threw for four touchdowns, four interceptions, and finished outside of the weekly top 20 five times. The good news is that the Titans have fully invested in Levis as their starter and spent significant draft capital and free-agent money surrounding him with supportive talent. Levis led the NFL with an 11.1 average depth of target, so expect the new regime to scheme up ways to improve his efficiency. Tennessee has a favorable schedule, so a Year Two jump isn’t out of the question. However, Levis is well off the fantasy starting radar. ADVICE: Low-end QB2…

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9

Last week’s game was better than advertised, as the Bucs hung with the Bills. However, the Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 9 offers up a pair of underperforming offenses that will be hard-pressed to be as entertaining.

Of course, that doesn’t mean this game has no headlines. Will Levis gets his first road start after an historic NFL debut. But, the Titans face a tough task traveling on short rest to take on the Steelers.

As for the Steelers, they face their own quarterback questions with Kenny Pickett’s health.

Both offenses have struggled in 2023, so we have an unusually low total of 36.5 points.

The Steelers are favored by just 2.5 points. That line tells us that Vegas thinks the Titans are the better team on a neutral field. But, are they?

Matchup 

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
Tennessee Titans	27	30	13	14	23
Pittsburgh Steelers	32	25	28	27	29

It has been a struggle for the Titans and Steelers to score points all season. Pittsburgh enters Week 9 with the league’s worst offense. The Steelers also rank last in the league with a 26.3% first-down rate and enter this game with only six touchdown passes in eight games.

Meanwhile, the Titans have the fewest pass attempts in football. Only the Jets and Browns have fewer passing yards than Tennessee’s 1,442. Tennessee is an old-school offense that churns out rushing yards, controls the clock, and is a top-5 unit in converting fourth downs.

Also, Tennessee has the edge defensively. The Titans boast the NFL’s 13th-ranked stop unit. They rank 13th against the run and in points allowed. Plus, the Titans are top-10 in sack rate.

Pittsburgh’s defense had dropped off. The Steelers have the fifth-worst run defense through eight weeks. That’s a mismatch against a Titans offense that wants to run the ball 30-plus times.

This game opened with the Steelers favored by 3.5 and a total of 37.5. However, both of those numbers have dipped by one point.

Tennessee Titans Offense 

Will Levis made headlines in his first NFL start, throwing for 238 yards and 4 touchdowns. Levis made some excellent throws. However, he also was lucky and the Falcons

How will Thursday’s Titans vs. Steelers game go?

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NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Saints – 3

Over/Under: 41.5

After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored).  The Titans have a better foundation for their passing attack by signing DeAndre Hopkins. Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Ryan Tannehill the tools to have a rebound in his passing stats. Derrick Henry remains a beast, and Tennessee looks to have hit on an upside back running back option (Tyjae Spears) in this year’s draft class.

New Orleans will have the best overall offense in the NFC South if Michael Thomas regains his previous form and stays healthy all season. Derek Carr has sneaky upside, thanks to Chris Olave and the potential growth by A.T. Perry. There have been positive reports about the play of Juwan Johnson in training camp. The combination of Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Williams points to solid production on the ground.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill

• Tannehill comes off down seasons (2,536/13) while missing five games with an ankle injury. He averaged only 27.1 pass attempts.
• The addition of DeAndre Hopkins gives him a trusted WR1 with change-mover ability and scoring upside. 
• The Titans still want to run the ball and play good defense, but teams will have success passing the ball against them. If Tennessee falls behind early, they will be forced to move the ball via the pass.
• New Orleans had the second-best pass defense (3,413/7 with 48 sacks) in the league.
• Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Tannehill big-play threats.
• I’m in the camp that this matchup could be higher scoring than expected, giving Tannehill a chance to pay off handsomely in the DFS market. He’s far from a lock, but ownership should be an edge if his ticket comes in.

 

Derrick Henry

 

• Over his last 40 games, Henry averaged 129.2 yards, 1.1 touches, and 1.75 catches on 25.4 touches (21.27 FPPG in PPR formats). 
• His yards per carry (4.3 and 4.4) came in well below 2019 (5.1) and 2020 (5.4) due to a step back in play by his offensive line and fewer threats in the passing game.
• The Titans will get Tyjae Spears involved in some way, but I don’t expect him to be a significant factor in Henry’s role in this matchup.
• New Orleans had a sharp regression in their play defending the run in 2022 (4.5 yards per carry, leading to 2,218 yards and 14 touchdowns). Offenses ran the ball 28.9 times a game against them.
• Henry won’t catch many balls, so he needs multiple scores of a long run to post a winning score for his salary. 

 

DeAndre Hopkins…

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2023  Tennessee Titans Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Tennessee Titans Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Ryan Tannehill

Since arriving in Tennessee in 2019, Tannehill has a 36-19 record with three playoff appearances. The injury to Derrick Henry in 2021 led to him seeing a slight bump in pass attempts (531) from 2020 (481). 

Last season, he missed five matchups with an ankle injury, leading to regression in his role in the run game (34/98/2). Tannehill averaged only 27.1 passes, but 16.5% of his completions gained 20 yards or more. He threw for fewer than 200 yards in six games. His only outcome of value came in Week 11 (330/2). Tannehill has been sacked 80 times over 29 starts in 2021 and 2022. 

Fantasy Outlook: With a questionable offensive line and below-league-average receiver options, Tannehill falls to the have-nots area of fantasy drafts at the quarterback position. He tends to be better than a game manager when on his game, but this offense appears to be moving in the wrong direction. At best, 3,500 passing yards with about 25 combined scores and some help in rushing stats.

Will Levis

Over his last two seasons at Kentucky, Levis completed 65.7% of his 5,232 yards with 43 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He rushed for 376 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021 in 107 carries, but his value as a runner was severely diminished last year (72/-107/2). 

After passing for more than 300 yards in three of his first four games in 2022, the rigors of the SEC led to him failing to gain more than 230 yards via the air in his next seven starts while averaging only 23.7 pass attempts.

Fantasy Outlook: Levis should have the inside track to win the backup quarterback job based on his ability to move the chains with his arm. He’ll also have a closer skill set to Ryan Tannehill, making it easier for Tennessee to run the same offense with him behind center. 

Malik Willis

In the new age of the NFL, more teams are looking for a mobile quarterback who offers a run/pass option to their game. Over two seasons at Liberty, Willis rushed for 1,922 yards on 338 carries with 27 rushing touchdowns. However, his completion rate (62.4) needs work, and interceptions (12) were an issue in 2021. He gained 8.5 yards per pass attempt, leading to 5,107 passing yards with 47 touchdowns over his final two seasons in college. However, over his last three games in 2021, Willis completed only 49.0% of his 104 passes for 698 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions while facing Louisiana, Army, and Eastern Michigan. He also struggled to run the ball over his final six starts (72/223/4 – 3.1 yards per rush). 

Willis can drive the ball when given a clean pocket, thanks to his plus arm strength. He also showed touch on deep passes. His challenge at the next level is reading defenses and making throws on time under duress. Willis needs plenty of work on his mechanics. NFL defense will force him to beat them via the pocket, where tips balls and his inaccuracy will become a problem early in his career. When given a chance to run, Willis will be dangerous in the open field. However, I expect him to struggle with passing touchdowns in the red zone. 

In his rookie season, he completed 50.8% of his passes for 276 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Willis gained 123 yards on 27 carries with one score. 

Fantasy Outlook: Willis looks more like a project, with the keys to his development coming from improved footwork in his setup when passing the ball and learning to read defenses. I’m also concerned about his long-term durability due to his expected high number of runs. In 2023, he’ll battle Will Levis for the backup quarterback job.

— Running Backs —

The rushing output by the Titans’ backs has declined in back-to-back seasons while maintaining a high floor in touchdowns (19, 18, and 18). Last year, they had a three-year low in rushing attempts (415 – 756 fewer than in 2021). On the positive side, the Titans have featured their running backs more in the passing game over the past two years (81/622/1 and 70/680/3).

Derrick Henry

The mystique of delivering a second great season after rushing for over 2,000 yards continued with Henry in 2021. He was well on his way to another productive year (1,091 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 18 catches) over eight starts while still having a shot at 2,000 rushing yards (219/937/10). Unfortunately, a foot injury put him on the shelf for his final nine games. Tennessee worked Henry early and often, leading to him receiving 29.6 touches per game. He was on pace to catch 38 balls for 327 yards, which would have been career-highs in both areas. The only strike for Henry was his drop in yards per rush (4.3) and lower number of big plays (three runs over 20 yards – 16 in 2020).

Last season, he was on pace to set a career-high in touches (382 – 23.9 per game) if Henry didn’t sit out Week 17 with a hip issue. The Titans had him on the field for 62.5% of their plays, compared to 66.4% in 2020. He rushed for more than 100 yards in nine starts, highlighted by another monster game vs. the Texans (32/291/2). Henry set a new top in catches (33) and receiving yards (398) despite having no catches over his first two contests. He finished with six plays gaining 40 yards or more. 

Fantasy Outlook: Henry ranked fourth in running back scoring (305.80) in PPR formats with at least 22.00 fantasy points in eight matchups. Over the past four seasons over 55 games, he rushed for 6,042 yards and 56 touchdowns on 1,249 carries, with 88 catches for 872 yards and two scores. Henry comes off the board this year as the seventh running back with a late second-round ADP in 12-team formats. His bump in value in catches helps his floor, and no other back in the NFL should get more touches. I don’t like his offensive line, but Henry remains a beast with the ball in his hands. Let’s go with 1,700 combined yards with 16 touchdowns and a chance at 40 catches. 

Tyjae Spears

In his second senior year at Tulane…

 

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE TITANS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

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