Breaking Down Committee Backfields
In today’s NFL, it seems like there are fewer three-down feature backs than ever. With more teams employing rotations, breaking down committee backfields is an important part of fantasy draft preparation. It also can lead to an opportunity to exploit value for those that can stay ahead of predicting how these committee backfields will play out, which opens up a variety of different draft strategies. Let’s look at some of the confusing backfields of 2021 and how fantasy football fans should approach them Miami Dolphins There are plenty of teams in today’s NFL that have at least a split-back system. However, in this article, I will try to focus on the teams that are expected to split touches at least three ways. That being said, the Dolphins may have the busiest running back room in the entire league as touches may be split between four backs weekly. New head coach Mike McDaniel had a history of using multiple runners during his stint as offensive coordinator in San Francisco. However, they also often struggled with injuries which leaves the question, was the multi-back system more based on design or necessity? Regardless, I do believe we will see a lot of rotation in this backfield. The four backs I’m projecting to be in that rotation are Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel, and Myles Gaskin. I anticipate Edmonds leading this backfield in touches. He’s probably the most versatile of the backs being that he can run inside, outside, and catch passes. Mostert is in that conversation as well, but Edmonds is much more durable. At his current ADP Edmonds is being selected as the RB35. He’s an absolute steal there in McDaniel’s zone-blocking, run-heavy system. Mostert is the wild card as he’s not only the most dynamic and dangerous back on the Dolphins, but he’s one of the most explosive players in the entire league. He’s a big play waiting to happen. The concern is that he isn’t durable enough to give a ton of touches too. He is more of a best ball option for me. As dynamic as he may be his upside is capped by the fact that he maxes out at about 6-8 touches per game. Michel projects to be the short-yardage and goal-line guy. However, I believe he’s the least talented back in this backfield. While in theory, he should have touchdown upside I believe he eventually loses his role and becomes an afterthought by Halloween. Gaskin is an interesting case. Many predict he could be cut, but he’s never anything short of spectacular in camp every summer. I do believe he will earn a roster spot and with Mostert’s fragility could end up with a significant role in the likely scenario that Mostert misses time. We have seen him put up monster games on bad offenses. He should be monitored on the waiver wire in 2022 despite starting the season as the Dolphins’ fantasy RB3 due to Mostert’s big-play upside. New England Patriots The Patriots are a habitually confusing backfield year after year. This year it’s more important than ever to decipher because the backs they have are extremely talented. The only saving grace may be that James White is a candidate to start the season on the PUP list forcing him to miss the first six games of the season, which would vastly improve Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson’s PPR potential. The team also added Pierre Strong Jr. who is a talented rookie but I don’t expect him to be a factor this season. We know when healthy James White is a premier pass-catching back with limited work on the ground. He is a major part of the offense, nevertheless, the real question here is do you want to roster Harris or Stevenson? Last year in his rookie campaign we saw Stevenson take 133 carries for 606 yards with five TDs. He averages 4.6 yards per attempt and saw his touches increase as the season went on. He also caught 14 passes for 123 yards. Harris also averaged 4.6 yards per attempt rushing 202 times for 929 yards and 15 TDs. He snagged 18 passes for 132 yards. The thing that jumps out about those numbers is obviously the TD disparity. Harris has a nose for the end zone, and I don’t expect that to change. However, Stevenson looks more explosive with the ability to break more big plays. Assuming White does miss time to start the season I expect the backs to split time fairly evenly. The difference will be I believe Stevenson will see a significantly higher volume of targets in the passing game and Harris will get the majority of the goal-line work. With that said, I give Harris a slight edge here. Stevenson could very well be the more productive fantasy back in the first half of the season. My concern is that when White does return we will see Stevenson’s PPR value plummet and Harris will still be finding himself with the ball near the end zone. This is very close and I like both backs, all three if you include White, but the edge goes to Harris in New England. Buffalo Bills The Bills were already a confusing backfield and this offseason they added rookie James Cook and pass-catcher Duke Johnson. It appears Devin Singletary had overtaken Zack Moss as the lead back in Buffalo although it has at times over the past two years seemed exactly the opposite. Still, I expect Singletary to be comfortably ahead of Moss so I will focus more on how Cook and Johnson will factor into the workload. Devin Singletary does start the season as the RB1, nonetheless, the real RB1 in Buffalo may actually be QB Josh Allen. There is a real chance Cook is more talented than Singletary. He certainly appears to be more explosive. However, he had the biggest workload of his career last season at Georgia with 68 carries and only ran the ball 113 times. Granted he