To continue reading this article, you must have an active subscription to one of the Products listed below.

Click Here to subscribe to FullTime Fantasy

Click here to subscribe to FullTime DFS

If you have an active subscription, please log in

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16

Following last week’s blowout between two sub-.500 teams, Week 16 offers a pairing of NFC playoff contenders. The Rams and Saints enter this game at 7-7 and in the thick of the playoff picture. FullTime Fantasy’s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 16 breaks down what is a must-win game for both teams.

The visiting Saints have won two straight and are tied for the NFC South lead. At +42, New Orleans has the fourth-best points differential in the conference. However, they must contend with traveling on a short week to face an LA squad that has won three consecutive games at home.

Additionally, Los Angeles has averaged 33 points per game in their last four. This Rams offense is now healthy and will pose problems for a New Orleans defense that has struggled when facing teams that are capable of moving the ball up and down the field.

The game opened with the Rams being favored by 4.5 points with a total of 44.5.

Matchup 

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
New Orleans Saints	14	14	19	18	12
Los Angeles Rams	8	11	11	7	9

 

On paper, these two teams are more evenly matched than it seems. However, the Saints have an edge defensively. At least they did until recently. The Saints pass rush has slowed and the team has dipped to 24th in run defense.

Meanwhile, the Rams have had issues defending the run. However, the return of Kryen Williams has had a significant impact on the team’s offensive resurgence. Also, in the last five games, Matthew Stafford is the overall fantasy QB5.

For this game, the Saints are looking at their own significant addition with ace No. 1 wideout Chris Olave returning after a 1-game absence.

This is the first away game for New Orleans since dropping a 24-15 game to the Falcons in Week 12. Meanwhile, the Rams have been thriving at home and have not lost to the Saints as hosts since 2009.

How will Thursday’s Saints vs. Rams game go?

To get Jody’s BEST BET and finish reading this content…

USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!

DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Saints – 3

Over/Under: 41.5

After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored).  The Titans have a better foundation for their passing attack by signing DeAndre Hopkins. Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Ryan Tannehill the tools to have a rebound in his passing stats. Derrick Henry remains a beast, and Tennessee looks to have hit on an upside back running back option (Tyjae Spears) in this year’s draft class.

New Orleans will have the best overall offense in the NFC South if Michael Thomas regains his previous form and stays healthy all season. Derek Carr has sneaky upside, thanks to Chris Olave and the potential growth by A.T. Perry. There have been positive reports about the play of Juwan Johnson in training camp. The combination of Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Williams points to solid production on the ground.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill

• Tannehill comes off down seasons (2,536/13) while missing five games with an ankle injury. He averaged only 27.1 pass attempts.
• The addition of DeAndre Hopkins gives him a trusted WR1 with change-mover ability and scoring upside. 
• The Titans still want to run the ball and play good defense, but teams will have success passing the ball against them. If Tennessee falls behind early, they will be forced to move the ball via the pass.
• New Orleans had the second-best pass defense (3,413/7 with 48 sacks) in the league.
• Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Tannehill big-play threats.
• I’m in the camp that this matchup could be higher scoring than expected, giving Tannehill a chance to pay off handsomely in the DFS market. He’s far from a lock, but ownership should be an edge if his ticket comes in.

 

Derrick Henry

 

• Over his last 40 games, Henry averaged 129.2 yards, 1.1 touches, and 1.75 catches on 25.4 touches (21.27 FPPG in PPR formats). 
• His yards per carry (4.3 and 4.4) came in well below 2019 (5.1) and 2020 (5.4) due to a step back in play by his offensive line and fewer threats in the passing game.
• The Titans will get Tyjae Spears involved in some way, but I don’t expect him to be a significant factor in Henry’s role in this matchup.
• New Orleans had a sharp regression in their play defending the run in 2022 (4.5 yards per carry, leading to 2,218 yards and 14 touchdowns). Offenses ran the ball 28.9 times a game against them.
• Henry won’t catch many balls, so he needs multiple scores of a long run to post a winning score for his salary. 

 

DeAndre Hopkins…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

 

USE CODE: BLITZ50 FOR 50% OFF your first TWO MONTHS! —OR— Use save20 for 20% off our 6-month package!

 

DEADLINE THIS FRIDAY.

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

2023 Fantasy Football Fades

Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players who are being over-drafted in 2023.

For me, the most challenging category each football season in the fantasy market is the fade/bust category. In most cases, a player underachieves expectations due to an injury. I’m looking for players coming off career years that look overpriced in drafts. In addition, some players will be ranked with more established options, putting them in a one-year wonder category.

Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders

There is no doubt Jacobs has talent and upside, but he is coming off a massive workload (393 touches), leading to an exceptional season (2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 53 catches). Unfortunately, the Raiders failed to pick up his fifth-year option before last year, putting him in the “franchise tag category.”

Jacobs turned 25 in February, and he wants to get paid. When training camp opened in July, his flight left town. His holdout could be lengthy, creating a fantasy dilemma. His 2022 stats suggest a value in the second round. I expect regression in his output and some injury risk by not being at training camp. Jacobs was an excellent buy last year, but I sense a potential trap even if he slides to the third round in PPR formats. 

Over the past seven seasons, a running back has led the NFL in combined yards, with each outcome resulting in…

WHAT PLAYERS SHOULD YOU AVOID THIS SEASON?

 

FIND OUT WHO SHAWN’S TOP-5 FANTASY FOOTBALL FADES IN 2023…

 

2023 New Orleans Saints Outlook

 

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Derek Carr

In his eighth season with Las Vegas in 2021, Carr set career-highs in completions (428), pass attempts (626), and passing yards (4,804). On the downside, he finished below the league average in touchdowns (23) with a rise in interceptions (14). Carr passed for over 300 yards in seven of his 18 games (including the postseason), but he failed to throw more than two touchdowns in any matchup. Carr was the 12th highest-scoring quarterback (324.40) in four-point passing touchdown leagues despite his low-scoring ability. Before 2021 (40/108), he chipped in with some scores on the ground over the previous three seasons (24/47/1, 27/82/2, and 39/140/3).

Coming into last season, his completion rate (68.7) was a strength from 2018 to 2021. Unfortunately, the addition of Davante Adams (100/1,516/14) gave him a true WR1, but his completion rate (60.8) was the lowest since his rookie season (58.1) in 2014. In addition, Carr had a regression in yards per pass attempt (7.0 – 7.8 from 2019 to 2021). The Raiders ended up benching him over their final two matchups. He had repeated weakness in interceptions (14) and touchdowns (24). Carr passed for more than 300 yards in two games (303/2 and 307/2) while delivering three scores in only two contests. Nine of his interceptions came over his last five starts.

Fantasy Outlook: Based on the passing history of the Saints with Drew Brees behind center, Carr should throw the ball more than 600 times in 2023 while regaining his lost completion rate by throwing many passes to the running back position. WR Chris Olave (72/1,042/4) played well in his rookie season, and WR Rashid Shaheed (28/488/2) showed growth late in the year, but New Orleans still needs a second elite option in the passing game. A Michael Thomas sighting would help Carr’s passing upside. In late June, he ranked 18th at quarterback while on a path to pass for 4,300 yards and only a slight progression in touchdowns.

Other Options: Jameis Winston, Jake Haener, Taysom Hill

— Running Backs —

When reviewing the rushing data for the Saints in 2022, I need to pull out Taysom Hill’s production (96/575/7) to understand better their running back opportunity. When inputting the team stats last year, I treated Hill as a WR/TE instead of a quarterback, misrepresenting the team’s rushing profile.  New Orleans’ backs gained 1,926 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 85 catches (19.51 FPPG in PPR formats). They set three-year lows in catches (85), receiving yards (650), receiving touchdowns (2), and targets (107) while accounting for 25.2% of their receiving yards.

Alvin Kamara

The lack of quarterback play hurt Kamara in two areas in 2021. He finished with a career-low 3.7 yards per carry (5.0 over his first four years) while having a sharp decline in his value in the passing game (47/439/5 – over 80 catches each season from 2017 to 2020). Despite missing four games with a knee injury, Kamara set a career-high in rushing attempts (240). He averaged 22.1 touches, besting his previous top in 2018 (18.3 per game). Kamara gained 100 combined yards in eight of his 13 starts, leading to 18.05 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. His path projected over 17 matchups would have pushed him into the top five in running back scoring.

Last season, Kamara missed another two games with an early season rib issue. Over 15 starts, he gained 1,387 combined yards with a career-low four touchdowns and 57 catches. New Orleans gave him the ball 280 times (16.5 per game) while gaining only 4.0 yards per rush. Kamara rushed for more than 100 yards in two matchups (23/103 and 23/107). His role in the passing game was diminished over his final five contests (2/11, 2/13, 2/34, 1/7, and 1/3). He posted one impact showing (158 combined yards with two touchdowns and nine catches).

Fantasy Outlook: Kamara has a court date on July 31st regarding an off-the-field incident early in 2022. Based on his ranking in late June (32nd) and the addition of Jamaal Williams, a suspension appears looming if found guilty. I’ll defer on his outlook until his situation clears up in August. 

Jamaal Williams

The Lions used Williams 179 times over his 13 games (13.8 per week) in 2021. He set a career-high in rushing yards (601) while showing weakness in yards per carry (3.9) and yards per catch (6.0). Williams missed four games with thigh, hip, and Covid-19 issues. He posted his best output in Week 1 (110 combined yards with one touchdown and eight catches). Detroit gave him three targets or fewer in 11 of his final 12 matchups while scoring less than 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in nine games.

Despite a minimal uptick in yards per rush (4.1), Williams had the best rushing opportunity (262/1,066) of his career, highlighted by 17 touchdowns. His role in the passing game (12/73) was a career-low. He scored two touchdowns or more in six matchups while gaining more than 100 yards in two games (19/108/2 and 22/144/1). The Lions had him on the field for only 40.6% of their plays.

Fantasy Outlook: Williams gives the Saints veteran experience in case…

 

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE SAINTS IN 2023?

To finish reading Shawn’s in-depth 2023 team outlook, with in-depth offseason reports, projections, and fantasy outlooks for all players

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.

There is certainly no shortage of analytics and data available to fantasy football enthusiasts. One of the most useful tools available to the well-prepared fantasy drafter is to break down the strength of schedule for each position. FullTime’s 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: WR looks at the most crucial position to give you a draft-day edge.

While there is plenty of strength of schedule analysis out there, FullTime Fantasy breaks down the data in a unique way. In addition to season-long data, FullTime Fantasy Members get access to all positions including IDP. Also, the data can be sorted by remaining games and broken down into sections. This can be especially helpful for high-stakes and tournament drafters looking for the edge during the fantasy playoffs.

Also, don’t forget to explore our previous 2023 strength of schedule analysis for quarterbacks and running backs. Now, let’s check out the 2023 fantasy football strength of schedule: WR.

The numbers listed include Weeks 1-17.

 

Favorable Schedules

 

Chris Olave & Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – Playing six games in the NFC South certainly doesn’t hurt for the underrated New Orleans Saints receiving corps. QB Derek Carr should be a big improvement over Andy Dalton. Plus, Carr has a notable history of peppering his No. 1 wideout with targets. That should be a boon for sophomore Chris Olave, who already ranked 10th in the league with a 29.3% target rate in 2022.

Michael Thomas was also off to a fast start before succumbing to another season-ending injury. When healthy, Thomas remains an elite pass catcher. While his fantasy football ADP has started to creep up, Thomas remains an excellent value pick to target in drafts.

For Thomas and Olave, expect a fast start and finish. New Orleans has the second-easiest schedule for wide receivers in Weeks 1-5 and again from Weeks 11-15. Also…

WHAT OTHER WIDE RECEIVERS will be impacted by the 2023 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule?

To finish reading this in-depth schedule analysis

 

GO PRO! Join FullTime Fantasy.