Fantasy Football Fades
Fantasy Football Fades Everyone loves targeting upside players in fantasy drafts. However, knowing which players are likely to be overdrafted is just as important. Whether you call them fades, busts, or add them to a ‘do not draft’ list, avoiding these risks at their current ADP is crucial. Here are my fantasy football fades for the 2025 season. Quarterbacks Justin Fields (New York Jets) Fields has always been a better fantasy option than a real quarterback due to his rushing prowess. But I have concerns about how that will play out with a new, defensive-oriented staff. Fields is also quick to tuck the ball and run, which harms the rest of New York’s fantasy assets. That run-first instinct also gets Fields injured a lot. Simply too much risk to draft Fields in QB1 range when there are plenty of safer options. Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) I love the addition of Ben Johnson and the supporting cast, but Williams was awful as a rookie. Among full-time starters, he ranked dead last in sack rate (10%) and was next to last in adjusted completion rate. Too many of those sacks were on Williams, and he struggled throughout camp to adjust to Johnson’s new offense. It’s too early to call Williams a bust. I think he’s being overdrafted by 3-4 spots. Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) Speaking of Johnson, his departure will impact Detroit’s offense dramatically. Goff has outplayed his ADP in the last three seasons. But Detroit plays six outdoor games, and Johnson’s departure makes it hard to trust Goff as anything more than a QB2 with weekly upside. Running Backs James Cook (Buffalo Bills) Getting Cook signed and active for some of the preseason was a positive development for Cook’s value. I’ve moved him up several spots in my rankings. However, he’s still one of the top touchdown regression candidates and missed valuable reps throughout August. Cook is still a decent RB2, but he’s nearly always off the board well before I would pull the trigger in the late 4th or 5th round. Joe Mixon (Houston Texans) If this were a ‘do not draft’ article, Mixon would be featured in that as well. The Texans have been far from transparent about Mixon’s knee. What we do know is that Mixon will open the season on the IR, meaning he’ll miss a minimum of four games. However, what’s concerning is that DeMeco Ryans has said there is no timetable for Mixon’s return to practice. Mixon is outside my top 50 running backs. Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns) This second-round rookie is another middle-round option that I want nothing to do with. Judkins isn’t even signed and is facing a potential length suspension. There are rumors that he could even attempt to re-enroll at college to re-enter the 2026 NFL Draft. Even if he were signed, you have to question what kind of shape Judkins would be in. I don’t think he’s going to make any significant fantasy impact in 2025. Wide Receivers Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders) Another candidate for touchdown regression, McLaurin, also missed time due to a contract impasse. That’s been resolved, but McLaurin will also have a hard time replicating his 16 end zone targets or 57% air yards share (3rd) with Deebo Samuel now in the lineup. Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens) Lamar Jackson threw for a career-high 41 touchdowns last season. But Flowers only caught four of those. Jackson is another massive regression candidate, and Flowers’ upside is capped. He lacks TD upside and will struggle to produce consistent WR3 upside in a run-first Ravens’ offense. Teammate Rashod Bateman is another fantasy football fade I’m avoiding. Non-Ricky Pearsall WR (San Francisco 49ers) Our thoughts on Ricky Pearsall are well documented. And I love Brock Purdy as one of the top QB values. However, I’m not that interested in the rest of San Francisco’s receiving corps. Jauan Jennings, coming off a breakout season of his own, has missed the entire preseason with a holdout. Jennings is also dealing with a calf injury. Speaking of injuries, Brandon Aiyuk will open the season on IR, meaning he will miss at least the first four games of the campaign. And coming off a torn ACL, he’s likely to be limited when he does return. This points to a massive target share from Pearsall and TE George Kittle, but makes the rest of San Francisco’s pass-catching corps unappealing. Tight Ends Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) Forget the off-the-field stuff. Kelce will be 36 this season, but has been in decline for at least three years. His yards per catch, YAC, yards per route run, and forced missed tackles have all dipped significantly. Worse, he’s no longer making plays downfield, and Kansas City may be limiting his usage in the regular season to save him for another deep playoff run. It all points to a player who is a fringe TE1, not the TE6 that his current ADP dictates. Finally, are you a Die-Hard Fantasy Football Player? CLICK HERE to Start Your Road to the 2025 Fantasy Football World Championships.
Running Back Regression After Leading the NFL in Rushing
Running Back Regression After Leading the NFL in Rushing Leading the NFL in rushing is a career highlight for most running backs. It also leads to banner fantasy football totals. However, most RBs see a precipitous decline in production the season after topping the league in rushing yards. This running back regression after leading the NFL in rushing has happened in 22 of the past 25 seasons and paints a worrisome fantasy outlook for the league’s reigning rushing king. Many different factors can lead to a sudden dropoff. As my friend Gary Davenport first divulged in his Curse of 370 and revisited for 2025, heavy usage is a key contributor to predicting running back regression. Other variables like coaching changes, strength of schedule, supporting cast, and age also play a role. Before I take a deep dive back through the past 25 seasons, let’s recap all the running backs that have led the NFL in rushing this century and find some key takeaways. NFL Rushing Leaders 2000-2025 Over the past 25 seasons, 20 different running backs led the NFL in rushing yards. Only LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Derrick Henry have done it more than once. You could also doff your proverbial cap to Edgerrin James, who ascended the leaderboard in 1999, becoming the first player since Eric Dickerson (1983-1984) to lead the league in his first two pro campaigns. In all, league-leading backs averaged 340 carries for 1,716 rushing yards (4.98 yards per carry) and scored 15.7 total touchdowns. That averaged out to just under 349 fantasy points (PPR), or 21.9 points per game. The splits were 15 rushing champs from the AFC, while 10 represented the NFC. The NFC East produced five, while the NFC South is the only division that has not had an NFL rushing champ in the last 25 years, nor has there ever been one from that division. The Saints’ George Rogers led the league with 1,674 yards back in 1981, but New Orleans was then part of the NFC West. Leading the league in rushing is more than an individual honor. Coaching, schemes, quarterbacking, and the offensive line all play a pivotal role. There are also numerous other elements that play a role in a team’s ability to manufacture a rushing leader. Contributing Factors for Success Health One of the most important factors for posting big numbers is staying healthy. From 2000-2015, no running back who led the league in rushing missed a single game. Even the backs who missed one were rested by their team in the season finale. Derrick Henry is the only running back in the last 25 years to lead the league in rushing but miss a game due to injury. Henry missed Week 16 of the 2019 season with a hamstring injury and returned to action in the season finale to rush for a season-high 211 yards to top the league. Every other running back in the past 25 seasons to lead the league in rushing has stayed healthy for every game or sat out the regular-season finale to rest for the playoffs. Winning Team Speaking of playoffs, teams that produced the leading rusher averaged 9.96 wins versus 6.2 losses, making the postseason in 18 of the 25 seasons (72%). However, only three of those teams made the Super Bowl, and the only squad to win is the reigning champions, the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles. Having a winning record also leads to more friendly game scripts for the rushing attack. Teams nursing second-half leads tend to rely on their lead backs to grind down the clock. Age The wear and tear that NFL running backs accumulate takes a toll. 20 of the 25 (80%) rushing leaders were under 28 entering the season in which they finished first. Looking at the averages, RBs had a mean age of 25.4 in those seasons. They also averaged 4.6 years of experience. Only two backs (Curtis Martin in 2004, Adrian Peterson in 2015) were older than 28. No rusher who was 29 when the season started has led the NFL in rushing since Barry Sanders did it back in 1997. NFL RUSHING LEADER AGE DISTRIBUTION AGE OCCURANCES RATE 21-23 6 24% 24-26 10 40% 27-28 7 28% 29+ 2 8% Skill Set & Fantasy Production Volume is king in fantasy, and rushers who accumulate enough touches to post elite numbers are typically three-down workhorses. 24 of the 25 RBs posted top-5 fantasy finishes. The only back who did not, Adrian Peterson in 2008, caught only 21 passes for 125 yards in 16 games. In the other 24 seasons tracked, running backs averaged 44 receptions annually. Derrick Henry is an outlier, but part of the formula for RB success in today’s high-octane NFL is to stay on the field on passing downs. However, the inability to do just that, stay on the field, is one of the main reasons we see noteworthy running back regression the year after they lead the league in rushing yards. Immediate Regression in the Next Season While winning a rushing crown is a notable accomplishment for a pro running back, there is usually a staggering dropoff in play the following season. 88% have seen an immediate dip in effectiveness, and it is usually a significant decline. Only three running backs since the 2000 season have posted better fantasy numbers the year after they led the NFL in rushing yards. As for the other 22, they averaged a 36.8% decline in fantasy points the following season. Notable Declines Running backs have always been a hot commodity on draft day. Particularly three-down workhorse backs coming off a rushing crown who finished the previous campaign at an average rank of RB 2.76. But fantasy draft history is loaded with first-round RB busts who stumbled after they broke out the previous season. Running Backs who led the league in rushing in 2000-2024 finished as the RB 2.7 in PPR leagues, but plummeted to an average of RB22.3 the following season.
Dynasty Rankings: WR to Fade in 2025
Dynasty Rankings: WR to Fade in 2025 With NFL free agency fading from focus, fantasy football enthusiasts are now fixated on the upcoming NFL Draft in April. Dynasty League trades are buzzing at the Fantasy Football World Championships (FFWC) as
Dynasty Rankings: WR to Fade in 2025
Tyreek Hill (WR) Miami Dolphins
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2024 Fantasy Football Busts
2024 Fantasy Football Busts Everyone wants to read about this year’s hottest sleepers to target. However, knowing which players to avoid is nearly as important. As part of our renowned FullTime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, these are our
Everyone wants to read about this year’s hottest sleepers to target. However, knowing which players to avoid is nearly as important. As part of our renowned FullTime Fantasy 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, these are our Fantasy Football Busts to fade this summer.
Many factors can cause us to avoid players. Usage concerns, lack of performance in the preseason, and injuries all play a role. Conversely, unwarranted hype from around the fantasy football community also factors in.
Regardless of the factors, here are FullTime’s 2024 Fantasy Football Busts and fades.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) – Health was always the biggest concern for Tua Tagovailoa. And right on schedule, as soon as he avoided injuries, Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards. He also posted the top PFF passer rating in the league. However, from a pure fantasy perspective, Tagovailoa wasn’t as good. He ranked 18th in fantasy points per game and
WHO ELSE IS JODY FADING IN 2024?
To finish reading Jody’s 2024 fantasy football busts…
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Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts
Week 1 is officially in the books and it’s time to evaluate some of the surprise poor performances around the NFL in Week 1. Several superstars who were expected to do big things fell flat on their faces. Will these players continue to struggle or will they right the ship? Let’s take a look at the Week 1 fantasy football busts and what we should do in Week 2. Quarterback Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) – The Ravens may have defeated the Houston Texans comfortably but there are many things to address in Baltimore. First of all, Baltimore’s running attack took a major hit as JK Dobbins went down with a season-ending torn Achilles. With Gus Edwards and Justice Hill filling in, it will be even more important for Lamar Jackson to bounce back after a dreadful debut to the season. Although he was efficient, finishing 17 of 22 on dropbacks, Jackson only accumulated 169 passing yards. He added 38 rushing yards on six attempts but fumbled twice, one resulting in a turnover. Despite not having Mark Andrews on the field, Jackson had one of the juiciest matchups heading into the opener but failed to live up to the hype. He produced two turnovers (one interception and a fumble) and failed to find the end zone. Jackson did develop a nice rapport with rookie wideout Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. even showed a few flashes. That said, fantasy owners will be hoping for a much better outing from their star quarterback on Sunday. Things will only get tougher for Jackson in Week 2 as the Ravens host their AFC North rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals. However, Jackson should get back on track despite a difficult matchup. Deshaun Watson’s numbers against the Bengals in poor weather should be encouraging for Jackson owners and the return of Mark Andrews should help the electric signal caller get back on track in Week 2. Fantasy owners shouldn’t overreact to Jackson’s dismal Week 1 performance. There are brighter days ahead. Week 2 Decision: Start Running Back D’Andre Swift (Philadelphia Eagles) – I am the first to admit that Swift’s Week 1 performance has me shaking in my boots. I thought he would be one of the biggest steals in fantasy football. But the Eagles didn’t give Swift the rock. The newest addition to the Philadelphia offense only managed two touches for a meager three yards. Despite the fact that Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch. Surprisingly, it was Kenneth Gainwell who absolutely dominated the touches in the backfield. We knew Gainwell would start but he also finished with 74 all-purpose yards on 18 touches. While we expected the Eagles to utilize Gainwell from time to time, nobody in their right mind expected that much of a difference in the workload. Swift only played approximately 35% of the Lions’ offensive snaps in 2022 and most thought that number would increase in his first year in Philly. However, the dynamic running back played just 19 of a possible 66 offensive snaps in Sunday’s 25-20 victory over the New England Patriots. Meanwhile, Gainwell turned his 41 snaps into a fairly productive outing and Boston Scott was even slightly in the mix (eight snaps). We will have to wait another week to see if Swift can get out of the dog house. However, I would recommend taking a wait-and-see approach after his uneventful Week 1 outing. Fantasy owners simply cannot trust him heading into Week 2 even if Penny is a scratch again against the Minnesota Vikings. It also doesn’t help that the Vikings allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in Week 1. Even if that was against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rachaad White finished with just 39 rushing yards on 17 carries as Tampa’s RB1. Things aren’t looking good for Swift heading into Week 2. Week 2 Decision: Sit Wide Receiver Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – Higgins entered the season as perhaps the most talented WR2 in the entire NFL. Unfortunately, the weather was bad in Cinatinnati’s season-opening loss to the Cleveland Browns. And Higgins finished with an embarrassing goose egg. However, it was encouraging to see Burrow target the versatile wideout eight times despite missing each connection. I wouldn’t overanalyze this one. Joe Burrow is still an elite quarterback despite his terrible Week 1 performance. Higgins should still be the second option in the passing game behind Ja’Marr Chase. The volume was there so there’s no reason to get too worried just yet. Fire Higgins up in Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens. It’s not an easy matchup but Higgins can only improve from here, right? Week 2 Decision: Start Tight End Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles) – It’s very surprising to see two members of the defending NFC Champions on this list. But Dallas Goedert was Week 1’s biggest bust at the tight end position after finishing with a whopping 0 fantasy points on just one target. The Patriots did a very good job defending Goedert but the weather didn’t do the big tight end any favors. The rain limited the Eagles’ offensive game plan and forced them to be an even more run-heavy team than they perhaps would have liked. That said, head coach Nick Siraianni made a point to mention Goedert’s lack of involvement in his post-game interview. “We can’t go a game without getting Goedert the football,” he said. Fantasy managers can rest assured that the Eagles will be working all week to find ways to get their playmaker the ball more in open space. Although Goedert will always be third in the pecking order behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Goedert should bounce back in Week 2 in what could be a high-scoring affair against the Minnesota Vikings. Fantasy owners should still start him with confidence as he should produce top-six numbers from the competitive tight end position. Week 2 Decision: Start The 2023 NFL season is underway but it’s not too late to get
2023 Fantasy Football Fades
2023 Fantasy Football Fades Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players
Knowing which players to avoid is a vital part of any successful fantasy draft strategy. Being proactive means avoiding disappointments before they bottom out. In this case, my 2023 Fantasy Football Fades explores five highly-coveted players who are being over-drafted in 2023.
For me, the most challenging category each football season in the fantasy market is the fade/bust category. In most cases, a player underachieves expectations due to an injury. I’m looking for players coming off career years that look overpriced in drafts. In addition, some players will be ranked with more established options, putting them in a one-year wonder category.
Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders
There is no doubt Jacobs has talent and upside, but he is coming off a massive workload (393 touches), leading to an exceptional season (2,053 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 53 catches). Unfortunately, the Raiders failed to pick up his fifth-year option before last year, putting him in the “franchise tag category.”
Jacobs turned 25 in February, and he wants to get paid. When training camp opened in July, his flight left town. His holdout could be lengthy, creating a fantasy dilemma. His 2022 stats suggest a value in the second round. I expect regression in his output and some injury risk by not being at training camp. Jacobs was an excellent buy last year, but I sense a potential trap even if he slides to the third round in PPR formats.
Over the past seven seasons, a running back has led the NFL in combined yards, with each outcome resulting in…
WHAT PLAYERS SHOULD YOU AVOID THIS SEASON?
FIND OUT WHO SHAWN’S TOP-5 FANTASY FOOTBALL FADES IN 2023…
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Early 2023 Fantasy Football Fades
While it is still early in the 2023 fantasy football draft season, FFWC best ball draft season is underway. Using the average draft position from these drafts allows us to recognize tendencies and find the early 2023 fantasy football fades
Of course, things can and certainly will change over time. However, these preliminary drafts allow savvy high-stakes players the opportunity to exploit values. Conversely, there are also players that appear to be targeted prematurely.
Let’s take a look at some of the early 2023 fantasy football fades to avoid in these May FFWC drafts. And while we’re on the subject, now is a great time to adopt a Dynasty Football World Championship squad.
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Running Backs
Breece Hall (New York Jets) RB11 – There is a lot to love about Breece Hall in dynasty leagues. However, being drafted near the 2/3 turn as the RB11 seems a bit high in redraft leagues. While Hall was the RB7 in terms of fantasy points per game in 2022, he tore his ACL in October.
Very often we see running backs take a full year to return to their pre-injury form. In most cases, the first season after a torn ACL results in a drop in efficiency and effectiveness. Even if Hall is able to suit up for Week 1, the Jets could spell him more with Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight, who are both capable runners.
Although Hall is a promising young back loaded with fantasy upside…
What other 2023 fantasy football fades should you avoid?
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2022 Fantasy Football Busts
While it’s always popular to target fantasy football sleepers, avoiding those trap players is just as vital. FullTime’s 2022 fantasy football busts will help you avoid targeting those potential disappointments on the final draft weekend. In addition to helping you
In addition to helping you recognize specific players to draft or avoid, FullTime’s 2022 staff predictions and high-stakes advanced ADP are also valuable tools to utilize on draft day.
We’re finally into September and Week One can’t kick off soon enough! Here are our 2022 fantasy football busts to help you prepare for this final week before another glorious season of NFL football begins. Also, don’t forget to check out reigning No. 1 draft ranker Billy Muzio’s 2022 fantasy football fades 2.0.
Bookmark FullTime Fantasy’s Customizable 2022 Fantasy Football Rankings
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) – Burrow is a great real-life quarterback, but is being overdrafted in fantasy leagues. He is going to run into three issues; the offensive scheme, an improved defense, and the division he plays in. The Bengals run a slow offense and with an improved defense will look to run even more this year, and being in the AFC North he will run into bad weather and grind it out games…
What other players should you avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts?
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Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0
Compiling a championship fantasy football roster isn’t just about knowing what sleepers to target. Avoiding potential traps is also vital and Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0 gives FullTime Fantasy Members exclusive insight from 2021’s No. 1 draft ranker. Earlier
Earlier this summer Billy wrote up his initial fade list for 2022. As the preseason has progressed, there are even more players that he plans to avoid at their current ADP.
Focusing on the all-important pass catchers, here is Billy Muzio’s Fantasy Football Fades 2.0.
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – Like Joe Burrow, I am out on Tee Higgins at his current cost. Higgins is selected as WR #13 and pick #26 in FFWC drafts. You are buying Higgins based on his playoff performance and will be disappointed with his 2022 output. You can insert my argument for Burrow here as everything applies, but let’s dive into Tee Higgins’s independent stats and efficiencies. Higgins finished as the WR#22 or worse in fantasy points per game in 10 of his 14 starts during the regular season. In those 14 games, he had 4 or fewer receptions in 5 games and 62 yards or less in 8 of 14. He was WR#71 in contested catch rate at 25%, WR#77 in true catch rate at 78.7%, WR#31 in target separation, WR#40 in total route wins (#52 vs. man), and WR #36 in routes ran. Don’t get me wrong, Higgins is a good receiver, but not WR#13. Pass on Higgins in the 2nd and early 3rd rounds in your drafts…
What other players are Billy Muzio fading in 2022 fantasy football drafts?
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Trending Sleepers: Should You Target or Fade
This time of year, Twitter is ablaze with hot takes and speculation about this year’s biggest sleepers. Knowing which of these trending sleepers to target or fade can make all the difference. No draft will successfully land every desired player but knowing who is overhyped or the real deal is huge. Is there a late-round Amon-Ra St. Brown to target? How about avoiding this year’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Round 2? Here are some of 2022’s hottest sleepers to target or fade in your fantasy football drafts. Sleepers to Target Cam Akers (RB) Los Angeles Rams After watching Akers look abysmal after returning from his torn Achillies last year, fantasy owners are justifiably hesitant to draft him at his current ADP as the RB18. However, the risk is baked into the price. He played tough run defenses upon his return last season and came back in record time. With a full offseason to recover, you are getting a back with RB1 upside in an explosive offense as a mid-range RB2 or possibly later. Sure, there is risk involved, nevertheless, he’s well worth his price tag. Rashod Bateman (WR) Baltimore Ravens I see almost no downside with Bateman. A lot of people seem to be overthinking this one. I don’t Lamar Jackson or this offense for wideouts either, but we saw Marquise Brown be successful as the WR1. Bateman is a better player than Brown and should fill the target vacuum perfectly. He’s a stronger player, runs better routes, and has better hands. Not only do I expect him to be as good as Hollywood, but he should be better. Don’t overthink this one. He’s being drafted as a WR3. He has WR1 upside and a WR2 floor. Allen Robinson (WR) Los Angeles Rams This one is pretty simple. We’ve seen Robinson be great before. Last year he was atrocious in a terrible offense with a bad quarterback. This year he goes to the Rams who have a great offense and a very good quarterback. With Robert Woods and Odell Beckham gone, Robinson should slide right in and be great again. This logic tracks with me. I don’t believe Robinson is washed and he has the potential to be a steal as the WR23. I’ve seen him personally fall to the WR30. Grab him, plug him in and you have a sure-fire WR2 with WR1 upside. Evan Engram (TE) Jacksonville Jaguars I’m not going to come here and tell you Evan Engram is great, however, I do think he’s being undervalued by the fantasy community. His current ADP is sitting at 190.11 while Kmet is at 137. Give me Engram every time. The Jags gave a ton of money to a bunch of mediocre weapons this offseason, but those mediocre players are still the best they got and they are going to use them often. Trevor Lawrence loved throwing to his tight ends and slot guys last year. As long as Engram can stay healthy he should have a prominent role in this passing game and you can get him for almost nothing. Finally, the Jaguars just happen to play the league’s easiest TE schedule according to FullTime Fantasy’s Strength of Schedule Tool. Doug Pederson’s TEs in PPR pts/game: 2013- Fasano 6.8 (39th) 2014- Kelce 11.5 (9th) 2015- Kelce 11.8 (9th) 2016- Ertz 13.1 (3rd) 2017- Ertz 14.6 (3rd) 2018- Ertz 17.5 (2nd) 2019- Ertz 14.4 (4th) 2019- Goedert 9.9 (13th) 2020- Goedert 10.6 (10th) Evan Engram current ADP TE24 — Jody Smith #TagsStrong💪 (@JodySmithNFL) June 21, 2022 Sleepers to Fade Trey Lance (QB) San Francisco 49ers No unproven quarterback is getting more love this season than Lance. People see a mobile quarterback with a cannon of an arm and fall in love with the upside. Unfortunately, it seems like many people are completely ignoring all the potential downsides. Based on our FFWC high-stakes ADP, he is currently being drafted as a QB1. I’ve personally seen him drafted as high as the QB8. The fantasy community has fallen in love with him, but we’ve only seen him put up one decent game in the NFL and he had one good season against subpar competition at North Dakota State. Falling flat on his face and being a terrible NFL quarterback is well within the range of outcomes for Lance in 2022. J.K. Dobbins (RB) Baltimore Ravens Until I hear some good news surrounding Dobbins, I want no part of his RB2 ADP this year. Even if healthy, he’s going to split time with Gus Edwards. Also, QB Lamar Jackson is going to steal carries and touchdowns, and Dobbins won’t’ catch many passes. Add in rumors that he may have also had LCL damage and could start the year on the PUP list, and I’m out. If news changes on the injury front and we see him out there this preseason then I’m back in on him as a low-end RB2. However, as of now, I’ll let someone else deal with that headache. Rashaad Penny (RB) Seattle Seahawks Penny was dominant at the end of last season and people are expecting to get a gem when drafting him. His price tag isn’t bad as the RB31, however, I don’t expect him to be the diamond in the rough people are looking for him to be. His career has been marred by injury and now he’s running behind a bad offensive line with Russell Wilson shipped out of town. Defenses no longer have any reason to worry about the quarterback play with Geno Smith and Drew Lock battling it out for the starting job. Unless the team makes some moves to make that offense better, I want no parts of an injury-plagued back on arguably the worst offense in football. Gabriel Davis (WR) Buffalo Bills The last time we saw Davis on the field was in the second round of the playoffs and he caught eight of 10 targets for 201 yards and four TDs. People fell in love for obvious reasons. I love his talent, but I just don’t see his