Monday Playoff Preview
What was originally scheduled to be one game is now a pair, due to inclement weather in Buffalo. Saturday’s slate brought a 2-0 start and Sunday featured a pair of intriguing NFC contests. After nailing both, I’m 4-0 to open Wild Card Weekend. FullTime Fantasy’s Monday Playoff preview breaks down the Pittsburgh at Buffalo and Philadelphia at Tampa Bay games. Using our RDA* projections, we can break down each game to find the statistical edge that can give us a leg up in playoff fantasy and daily fantasy lineups. Also, we can determine the best bets to make. Before you place those winning bets, our partner Edge Boost can help you double your entries and payouts! Click below to increase your winnings today. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (11-6) Time: 4:30 Eastern Line: Buffalo -9.5 Total: 37.5 Money Line: Steelers +400, Bills -525 Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh dipped to 29th in offense, yet Mike Tomlin did another phenomenal job rallying his club above putrid quarterback play. Tomlin is sticking with the ‘hot hand’ in QB Mason Rudolph. However, expect the Steelers to feature both of their running backs heavily, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, against a suspect Buffalo run defense. Also, the Steelers won’t have their best defensive player in T.J. Watt. The Steelers have only garnered a single victory in the 11 games Watt has missed since debuting in 2017. The under has hit in 10 of Pittsburgh’s last 15 games and 7-of-8 when facing the Bills. Buffalo Bills The Bills are surging into the playoffs on a five-game winning streak. A change of offensive coordinators resulted in more emphasis on James Cook and the rushing attack. Of course, QB Josh Allen leads the club in rushing scores and is one of the top running QB threats in football. The Steelers ranked just 19th against the run this season. WR Stefon Diggs has not thrived since the scheme change. But Diggs remains a strong play against a modest secondary. This game was originally scheduled for Sunday and moved due to weather. The cold and snow could still factor in. Additionally, the under has hit in six of the last seven games played at Highmark Stadium. UNDER 39.5 LOSS Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) Time: 8:15 PM Eastern Line: Philadelphia -3 Total: 43.5 Money Line: Eagles -150, Buccaneers +130 Philadelphia Eagles The once-dominant Eagles are reeling. Philadephia enters the playoffs having lost five of their last six. That’s a terrible dynamic. In the Super Bowl era, the previous five teams that dropped 5-of-6 before entering the postseason are 0-5 in their playoff game. Additionally, the Eagles are beat up. QB Jalen Hurts has been contending with numerous ailments for a while and No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (knee) has been ruled out. Expect more targets to go to TE Dallas Goedert and WR DeVonta Smith, who is poised to have a big game. Also, it makes sense to project RB D’Andre Swift to have an expanded role. However, Tampa Bay ranked 5th against the run and Swift has only topped double-digit fantasy points once in his last six games. Philly’s chances rest with Hurts, as both a passer and runner. These two squads faced off in this stadium back in Week 3 and Hurts produced 305 yards of offense and two scores. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Meanwhile, Tampa is also dealing with injuries. QB Baker Mayfield was limited all week with ankle and rib injuries and is listed as questionable. Mayfield is tough and will play. But the matchup is a tough one. Particularly for a limited signal caller. In Week 3, the Eagles held Mayfield to 146 passing yards and one score at Raymond James. Despite the 25-11 loss to Philadelphia in September, this is a good matchup for Tampa’s skill-position group. The Eagles ranked 31st against the pass. Mike Evans scored seven touchdowns at home this season, including the team’s only TD in the previous matchup. Chris Godwin produced double-digit fantasy points in his final five outings of the regular season. Our RDA* projections love Godwin tonight. Also, RB Rachaad White can factor in as a dangerous receiving option if the Eagles’ No. 10 run defense factors in. With the Eagles struggling and Tampa winning five of their last six to win the NFC South, I like the Buccaneers to cover and might even consider the money line. Bucs +3 WIN Sign Up Before the NFL Playoffs & Double Your Bet Instantly With Edge Boost Offer is up for a limited time only! Special Offer For The FullTime Community: Users who sign up within the next 72 hours will start at $500 in advance limit from EDGE Boost (as opposed to $50). 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Sunday Playoff Preview
After a two-game slate on Saturday, Sunday offers two more playoff games. Our Sunday Playoff Preview breaks down the fantasy, DFS, and sports betting angles for the Packers at the Cowboys and the intriguing night game between the Rams and upstart Lions. Using our RDA* projections, we can break down each game to find the statistical edge that can give us a leg up in playoff fantasy and daily fantasy lineups. Also, we can determine the best bets to make. Before you place those winning bets, our partner Edge Boost can help you double your entries and payouts! Click below to increase your winnings today. Green Bay Packers (9-8) at Dallas Cowboys (12-5) Time: 4:30 PM Eastern Line: Dallas -7 Total: 50.5 Money Line: Packers +270, Cowboys -340 Green Bay Packers Plenty of scoring is expected indoors between a Packers offense that ranked 12th in scoring and a Dallas unit that led the league. The biggest factor in the Packers’ scoring resurgence was QB Jordan Love. Fantasy football’s No. 5 signal-caller, Love tossed multiple scores in eight of his final nine games. However, things won’t be easy against a Dallas defense that ranked 5th overall and against the pass. With A.J. Dillon doubtful, Aaron Jones is a strong contender to approach 20 touches. Additionally, Christian Watson (hamstring)looks iffy. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs remain solid options, as do the Packers’ rookie tight end duo. The Packers have covered nine of their last 10 games against the Cowboys and straight up won 4-of-5 in Dallas. Dallas Cowboys Dallas took control of the NFC East by winning 7-of-9 just as the Eagles were tanking. Much of the success can be attributed to an offense that has steamrolled opponents at home. The Cowboys led the NFL in scoring and were undefeated at AT&T. CeeDee Lamb was fantasy football’s top wideout in 2023 and sits atop our RDA* projection against a Green Bay secondary that ceded 13 scores to opposing wideouts. Green Bay allowed more sores to running backs. Therefore, Tony Pollard comes in as our No. 2 runner for the week. A Dallas stack led by QB Dak Prescott will be a popular DFS entry. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS at home and the OVER is 10-3 since Week 6. However, Dallas has struggled against the Packers, dropping nine of their last 10 overall. Packers +7 WIN Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at Detroit Lions (12-5) Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Line: Lions -3 Total: 51.5 Money Line Rams +140, Lions -165 Los Angeles Rams Like the second game, Sunday’s finale should feature plenty of scoring. The total of 51.5 points for this game is the highest of the Wild Card slate. For the Rams, QB Matthew Stafford thrived down the stretch as his offense got healthy. Sophomore RB Kyren Williams was a league winner. However, the Lions ranked 2nd in the league against the run. Conversely, Detroit struggled against the pass, ranking 27th. That puts both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in play as top-8 wideouts per our RDA* projections. Also, the Rams tend to show up as visitors. LA went 5-3-1 against the spread on the road and the OVER hit in six of nine. Detroit Lions Meanwhile, the Lions are more than capable of running teams out of the building. Detroit ranked 5th in the league in scoring and was an NFL-best 12-5 against the spread this season. QB Jared Goff plays his best ball at home, leading to the Lions covering 10 of their last 13 at Ford Field. Los Angeles allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Lions will heavily feature both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. However, the tough matchup favors Gibbs, who has a more prominent role in the passing attack. Speaking of the aerial game, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown should cook against a Rams’ secondary that surrendered the 9th-most fantasy points to wideouts. Our RDA* projections also favor Jameson Williams to be a sneaky start. There is a lot of history of OVERs in this series and with both teams in 2023. However, I think the Rams can hang around and that half-point is big. RAMS +3.5 WIN Sign Up Before the NFL Playoffs & Double Your Bet Instantly With Edge Boost Offer is up for a limited time only! Special Offer For The FullTime Community: Users who sign up within the next 72 hours will start at $500 in advance limit from EDGE Boost (as opposed to $50). Claim this offer using EdgeBoost now if you sign up before the Texans–Browns game kicks off on Saturday! Click on this link Click “Sign Up Today” & Double Your Bet Instantly! What is EDGE Boost? EDGE Boost is the first Bet Now Pay Later (powered by VISA) provider that enables you to take out a responsible, no-interest advance that you can use to bet on games of your choice at any sportsbook, DFS site, or the FFWC! You are then given four weekly installment payments to repay your advance, and if your wager hits, you double your winnings with no fees. 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Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8
Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a
We are now halfway through the 2023 season and the stakes are getting higher. The Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 8 features a pair of contending teams coming off of disappointing losses. Subsequently, a win would go a long way toward improving the postseason hopes for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.
Speaking of the Bills, sitting at a mediocre 4-3 is new territory for Sean McDermott’s squad. Despite being an AFC-best +80 in points differential, Buffalo’s defense has fallen off. Also, the Bills sit at 0-2 on the road against their AFC East rivals. Returning home to Highmark Stadium in primetime could be just what the doctor ordered.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have exceeded most expectations, even after a second consecutive home loss. The biggest problem for Todd Bowles’s team appears to be offense. After scoring 20-plus in three games to open the season 3-1, Tampa has one touchdown in their last two outings.
That’s not going to cut it against a Buffalo team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring.
Therefore, the Bills are favored by 8.5 points, and the total slipped by one point to 42.5.
Matchup
| TEAM | OFFENSE | PASS | RUSH | YDS/PLAY | POINTS |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 | 15 | 29 | 22 | 26 |
| Buffalo Bills | 5 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 3 |
Both teams are far better at passing than running. However, the Bills have a distinct advantage in scoring, big plays, and efficiency. It’s on the other side of the ball where these two are much more evenly matched.
Tampa Bay ranks 11th in defense and sixth in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Bills have slipped to 22nd in defense but rank fifth in points surrendered. That explains the modest total for this game.
For the Buccaneers to pull the upset, they’ll have to step up offensively. Tampa has mustered a -13.83 expected points differential during their current two-game slide. That’s not the way to challenge a powerful Buffalo team that has won 15 of their last 18 home games.
The Bills have lost two of their last three games. Turnovers have played a big part in that, with Buffalo having two giveaways in each of their last three contests. Cleaning the mistakes and special teams’ gaffs is paramount for McDermott and company to keep the Bills in AFC East contention.
However, it’s hard to see Tampa winning this game without forcing those errors.
Tampa Bay Offense
The Bucs got off to a 3-1 start thanks to Baker Mayfield completing 70% of his passes and…
How will Thursday’s Buccaneers vs. Bills game go?
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2023 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks
Welcome to our 2020 Fantasy Football Team Outlook series. Check out our statistical and in-depth analysis for EVERY player on EVERY NFL roster!
2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook
2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview
2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook
The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.
Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 Buffalo Bills Outlook.
— Quarterback —
Josh Allen
Over the past three seasons, Allen has been the best fantasy quarterback in the league. Allen has produced 15,180 combined yards with 129 touchdowns. On the negative side, his interceptions have risen each year in the NFL (5, 7, 8, 10, and 12). He gains a massive edge as a runner, highlighted by his last two seasons (122/763/6 and 124/762/7). Since arriving in the NFL, Allen has had 38 rushing scores in 77 games.
After a fast start over his first six games (33.12 FPPG in four-point passing TD leagues) in 2022, he scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in only two other contests (33.45 and 39.90) over his final 12 starts of the year. In Week 9, the Jets held him to 205 passing yards with no TDs via the air. Allen also exited that game with an injured right elbow. Allen played through the issue with his regression shown in his passing yards (249.6 yards) and passing touchdowns (1.9) per game over his final 10 starts.
Buffalo still needs to develop their secondary receiving options behind Stefon Diggs (108/1,429/11 on 154 targets). This is something Allen needs to reach a higher ceiling in passing production. The addition of TE Dalton Kincaid should be a big win for the Bills’ passing game. Gabe Davis (48/836/7) must improve his catch rate (51.6 – 54.1 in his career). Also, Davis needs to eliminate drops (16 over the past two seasons) to reach a competitive WR2 status.
Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Allen ranks second behind Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Despite the appearance of greatness, his yards per pass attempt (7.4 over the past three seasons) have yet to reach an elite area. He gains plusses for his ability to run and score on the ground, along with having an elite WR1. This combination puts Allen in an elite fantasy area while potentially having another gear if the Bills’ young tight end hits the ground running and their WR2 and WR3 increase their production. With a floor of 5,000 combined yards and 40 touchdowns, he projections to be another edge in 2023. Next step: 5,400 yards and 45 scores.
Other Options: Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley
— Running Backs —
The Bills running backs finished with their most production since Josh Allen’s arrival. They set three-year highs in rushing yards (1,470), yards per rush (4.9), catches (79), split percentage (21.9), receiving yards (609), yards per catch (7.7), and targets (113) while also playing one fewer game than 2021. If Josh Allen can continue incorporating his backs in the passing game, it will allow him to extend more drives and increase his chances of producing more yards and touchdowns.
James Cook
Cook saw minimal playing time over his first three seasons in college (1,221 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 40 catches). In 2021, Georgia gave him 140 touches, leading to 1,012 combined yards with 11 scores and 27 catches. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry and 10.9 yards per catch in college.
Cook is the younger brother of Dalvin Cook but has a sleeker build (5’11” and 199 lbs.). He brings explosive speed and upside in the passing game. His challenge to get on the field on passing downs comes from his questionable value in pass protection.
In his rookie season, Cook gained 687 combined yards with three touchdowns and 21 catches on 110 touches. He finished 44th in running back scoring (106.70) in PPR formats, averaging 0.97 fantasy points per touch. His only playable fantasy games came in Week 13 (105 combined yards with six catches on 20 chances) and Week 16 (11/99/1 and one catch for nine yards). Buffalo had Cook on the field for 25.6% of their snaps last season.
Fantasy Outlook: I love the explosiveness and upside of Cook in the Bills’ offense. But his scoring output will be limited until he works his way into more touches. If healthy, Damien Harris should see the bulk of carries on early downs and at the goal line. Harris also offers closing value in the fourth quarter in tight games. Cook must hold off Nyheim Hines in the passing game to secure a 50-catch opportunity.
I expect Buffalo to get Cook between eight and 10 touches per game in 2023. That puts him on a path to gain 1,000 combined yards with 40+ catches and between five and seven TDs. His ADP (89) since April 1st in the Fantasy Football World Championship ranks him as the 29th running back selected. For reference, that running ranking scored 9.49 FPPG in PPR leagues in 2022. I expect him to outperform his current draft value.
Damien Harris
After an excellent season in 2021 (1,061 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 18 catches), Harris lost his way and opportunity last year after a Week 5 hamstring against the Lions. His season started with 53 rushes for 246 yards, three touchdowns, and seven catches for 29 yards (52.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues). Harris only touched the ball four times vs. Detroit. This was followed by minimal chances (49/205 and nine catches for 67 yards) over the next 12 matchups. Over this span, he missed six games due to hamstring, illness, and thigh issues.
With New England, Harris ran the ball more than 65% of the time inside, gaining over 2.5 yards per rush after contact. When at his best in 2021, he gained more than 100 yards in five games (23/100, 18/101/1, 14/106/2, 10/111/1, and 18/103/3), with two coming against the Bills and four at home. On the downside, Harris finished with 40 rushing yards or fewer in six starts. He only had 40 catches for 281 yards and one score in his 36 career games.
Fantasy Outlook: Over the past two seasons…
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE BILLS IN 2023?
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2022 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks
Welcome to our 2020 Fantasy Football Team Outlook series. Check out our statistical and in-depth analysis for EVERY player on EVERY NFL roster!
Preseason Pro: Brad Kruse
Brad Kruse is a legend in the world of high-stakes fantasy football. If you sit across from him and his laptop filled with his custom program spreadsheets, you know you’re in for a long draft of snipes and swears as
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Michael Pittman (WR) Indianapolis Colts
See which Top 5 Running Back Brad Calls a Bust!
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2021 Fantasy Football Team Outlooks
Welcome to our 2020 Fantasy Football Team Outlook series. Check out our statistical and in-depth analysis for EVERY player on EVERY NFL roster!
AFC East
- Buffalo Bills – One of the hottest fantasy connections in 2020 was Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs. Will they repeat, who will be favorite target #2 (Beasley, Davis or Sanders) and can they find an every down player in 2nd year RB Zach Moss? … To continue reading this article, you must have an active subscription to our Seasonlong Fantasy Subscription.
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2020 Fantasy Football: Buffalo Bills Team Outlook
In this 2020 Buffalo Bills Team Outlook, Senior Expert Shawn Childs provides an in-depth Fantasy Football breakdown of the entire franchise.
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Bills Look For First Playoff Win Since 1995
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills travel to Houston to take on DeShaun Watson and the Texans in the AFC Wildcard.