2025 Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview
2025 Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview If one needs an example of the impact that changing toxic culture can have, reference the 2024 Washington Commanders. In the first full year (second season) away from Dan Snyder, the Commanders took astonishing steps, going 12-5 and reaching the NFC championship game. After inheriting Snyder’s last staff, new owner Josh Harris hired GM Adam Peters, went against the grain and gave Dan Quinn another shot, and nabbed Kliff Kingsbury to run the offense. The results speak for themselves. Paramount for Washington’s turnaround was hitting on QB Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels was sensational in Year One, throwing for 3,568 yards, tossing 25 touchdowns, and accumulating the second-most QB rushing yards (891) with an additional six scores. Daniels is firmly in the top tier of signal-callers and has vaulted to the head of the Dynasty class. The Commanders did not draft a running back before Round 7, so Brian Robinson Jr. looks like a good value pick. Robinson posted his usual numbers in 2024, but saw an increase in rushing touchdowns (8) while missing three games. Robinson ceded a lot of targets to Austin Ekeler, who is back in his age-30 season. Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez also return as reserves. In all, Washington ranked third with 154.1 rushing yards per game. Robinson and Ekeler are fine middle-round targets. Daniels formed a formidable connection with WR Terry McLaurin, who broke out with 13 touchdown receptions. What’s scary for Scary Terry is that there is still room for more. McLaurin dipped below 120 targets for the first time since his rookie campaign. Even a 10 percent boost would put McLaurin in the top five of fantasy wideouts. However, we don’t expect a repeat of those gaudy TD numbers. He’s closer to WR10 than WR6, where he finished last season. The Commanders acquired Deebo Samuel from San Francisco. Samuel adds a new wrinkle to Kingsbury’s offense and is a massive upgrade over Olamide Zaccheaus. It will be interesting to see how Samuel is employed in the attack and how many touches he takes away from McLaurin and the backs. Noah Brown returns as WR3, but keep an eye on fourth-round Virginia Tech rookie Jaylin Lane, a twitchy speedster with massive potential. Washington re-signed TE Zach Ertz after his impressive TE8 showing. Eriz ranked second on the team with 91 targets. He’ll be 35 in December, but Ertz ran a route on a career-high 92.2 percent of his snaps. His ADOT and contested catch rates also increased. Father Time is looming, but Ertz still looks like a solid TE1. Fantasy Grade: B+ QB Daniels, Jayden, WAS [QB1] In last year’s preview, we mentioned Daniels had top 5 upside. That’s precisely what happened, as Daniels showcased his immense, dual-threat value. Washington ranked 4th in pace of play, and Daniels posted 12 QB1 weekly finishes. He ranked 2nd at the position in rushing (891) and red-zone totes (39). However, he also proved to be a legitimate passing weapon, boasting a 25-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio and leading the entire NFL in completion rate versus man coverage (78 percent). Daniels was a league-winning mid-to-late round pick last season, but the price has risen significantly. Still, he’s one of the top QBs to target. ADVICE: Firmly in elite tier and worth targeting early. RB Robinson, Brian, WAS [RB1] Washington is running it back in 2025. Having added no competition before Round 7, Brian Robinson’s role as the Commanders’ lead back keeps him in the RB3 conversation. Robinson will cede some change-of-pace work to Austin Ekeler, but he will take the majority of early-down carries. He ranked 20th with 44 red-zone touches, resulting in eight scores. Also, Robinson chipped in 20 receptions with only one drop. Washington was 5th in the league with 30.8 rushes per game, so B-Rob will have ample opportunities to contribute RB3/flex numbers. ADVICE: Middle-round RB3/flex option with plus touchdown potential. RB Ekeler, Austin, WAS [RB2] The days of Austin Ekeler earning 20 touches are over, but he can still contribute as an RB3/4. Metrics highlight a decline in his efficiency: a 2.55 yards after contact per attempt and 10 forced missed tackles on 77 carries. His opportunity share stood at 41 percent, with a snap share of 55.6 percent, indicating a reduced role in the Commanders’ backfield. Despite these changes, Ekeler’s receiving prowess remained evident, maintaining a significant role in the passing game. However, with the emergence of Brian Robinson Jr. as the primary rusher, Ekeler’s fantasy value has shifted. ADVICE: Decent flex option, particularly valuable in PPR leagues due to his receiving capabilities. WR McLaurin, Terry, WAS [WR1] Terry McLaurin put together his most productive season yet in 2024, ending the year as the WR6 overall with 82 receptions, 1,110 yards, and a career-high 13 touchdowns. He flourished with rookie Jayden Daniels at quarterback, finishing as a top-24 fantasy wideout in 69 percent of his games, tied for third-best among all receivers. His breakout campaign was fueled by exceptional touchdown efficiency, and he posted the highest contested catch rate of any WR in the past six seasons. While some regression in scoring is expected, McLaurin remains a steady option in an improved Washington offense. He’s a reliable WR2 with top-20 upside. ADVICE: Stable WR2 with proven volume and ADP in the late 3rd round. WR Samuel, Deebo, WAS [WR2] As more time passes, Deebo Samuel’s breakout 2021 campaign looks like an outlier. Samuel finished as the WR3 that season with 1,405 receiving yards and 14 total TDs. His 2023 season was also strong, but Samuel has battled nagging injuries and a decreased involvement as a rusher. Now, he’s dealing with a new team, system, and quarterback. Granted, Washington isn’t a downgrade, but the Commanders funneled their offense through Terry McLaurin. And with Jayden Daniels, Samuel would, at best, be fourth in line for carries. Kliff Kingsbury is creative enough to utilize Samuel as a weapon, but can he get back
Week 1 NFL Player Props: Malik Nabers Leads the Way
Week 1 NFL Player Props Week 1 is officially underway and it’s that time of week to start pinpointing the best prop bets to exploit heading into Sunday’s slate of action. Last season, this column resulted in +12.6 Units so let’s have another profitable season. Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 1 NFL Player Props to target! Jared Goff OVER 265.5 Passing Yards (-114) Goff topped this line in each of his previous five games of the 2023 season, including in the Wild Card Round against these very same Los Angeles Rams in which he tallied 277 passing yards. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, a healthy Jameson Williams, Sam Laporta, and even Kalif Raymond, the sky is the limit for these Lions. Especially with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield. Goff finished the 2023 campaign second in passing yards (4,575) and his home/away splits are eye-popping. He completed over 70% of his pass attempts with a 19:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 107.9 QBR at home. On the road, it was a different story as the signal caller completed just 64.8% of his throws with an 11:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 89.5 QBR. Against the Rams, the Lions will surely run the ball but given the weapons at Goff’s disposal, I think he’ll clear this line easily on his home turf. Expect at least one deep connection to Jameson Williams while St. Brown and Laporta will be peppered with targets. Smash the Over. Jordan Love OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-110) WIN After his breakout season, Jordan Love is set to kick off this campaign against an Eagles team getting a ton of buzz for upgrading its secondary. However, that secondary was the league’s second-worst pass defense in 2023. And although the Eagles snagged two corners with their first two picks, I’m not so sure that they’ll be able to stick with Green Bay’s electric playmakers on the outside in Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and even Luke Musgrave. If the Packers want to remain competitive in their season opener, the secondary is the area of the field that Love will need to exploit. Philly also swapped out Hassan Reddick for Michael Huff, but their front seven remains largely the same — a group that finished 10th in rushing defense last season. So, the ground game might be tough sledding, which means Love and his receivers will have the best shot moving the ball through the air. Love was a machine late last season, averaging 271 passing yards over his final nine regular season games, throwing for 255+ yards in seven of them. And while RB Josh Jacobs will get his touches, don’t be surprised if some of those handoffs turn into screen passes or dump-offs to keep the Eagles’ fierce front seven on their heels — boosting Love’s yardage even more. Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115) WIN Here’s a line that stands out — and not in a good way! It’s set way too low for a clear RB1 like Brian Robinson Jr. Let me break it down: Robinson is the main guy for the Commanders, handling the bulk of the carries. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler, as talented as he is, plays more of a third-down role, meaning he’s not going to be pounding the rock a ton. Now, even if Robinson isn’t super efficient — let’s say he averages just 3.0 yards per carry — with the kind of volume he’s likely to get (around 13 carries), he’ll still end up pushing past 40 yards. So don’t let a low line fool you! I’ll be wagering multiple units on this one. James Conner OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) WIN Get ready for a wild ride because I’m all in on the Cardinals surprising everyone this season! This bet is all about believing in them to rise above expectations. The Cardinals are 6.5-point underdogs heading into Buffalo, and if the Bills completely steamroll them, sure, this might not hit. But I think the Cardinals can hang tough! Last season, James Conner cleared 12.5 rush attempts in 9 of his 13 games. And the only times he didn’t? Those were brutal losses by 19, 14, 23, and 11 points. As long as Arizona doesn’t get blown out, Conner will be fed the ball. Rookie Trey Benson? He’s probably only getting a couple of carries, leaving Conner as the workhorse. So, unless this game turns into a total rout, expect Conner to smash that 12.5-rush-attempt mark! Blake Corum UNDER 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) Do we truly think Sean McVay is going to cut back Kyren Williams‘s workload that much? Perhaps later in the season but seven carries for a backup running back still seems like a lot. Especially given that the Lions are favored, the Rams may have to throw the ball late to complete a comeback. This game’s got the highest total of the week at 50.5, so we’re probably in for an exciting, pass-heavy shootout. With all that action, it’s hard to imagine Blake Corum — in his first game — squeezing in seven rush attempts. It’s going to be all about the air show in this one! Nico Collins OVER 65.6 Receiving Yards (-120) WIN Get ready for a big game from Collins! That standout receiver was the third-best in 2023 according to PFF. Sure, Stefon Diggs might take a chunk of the targets, but you can’t overlook what Collins did against Indy last season. He torched them, clearing 100 yards in both matchups, including a jaw-dropping 195-yard performance in Week 18! And it’s not just the Colts. Collins hit this yardage mark in eight games last season when he played over 60% of snaps. And the Colts’ defense hasn’t exactly leveled up. PFF ranked them 21st in coverage. Additionally, two of their worst games were against Houston. Now,
Week 5 NFL Player Props
Week 5 NFL Player Props Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately,
Week 5 NFL Player Props
Week 4 was an interesting one from a prop betting perspective. After starting the season 10-4, last week was the first time this season that we didn’t hit over 50% of our prop bets. Fortunately, since we tripled up on the Justin Fields over, our 3-4 Week 4 record doesn’t tell the full story; We actually profited cash for a third consecutive week. Just about a quarter of the way through the regular season, we are now 13-8 (+6.9 units).
After a surprising first few weeks to the season where studs weren’t performing and there were some unfamiliar names leading certain position groups, things are finally beginning to shake out as one would expect. Justin Herbert has been the top quarterback, Christian McCaffrey has been the top running back, Justin Jefferson has been the top wideout, and T.J. Hockenson has been the top tight end (Travis Kelce missed the season opener but is averaging more points per game than Hock). The cream always rises to the top.
Fantasy football owners definitely have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props and continue our trend of profitable NFL weekends.
Josh Allen OVER 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After a disappointing season-opening performance against the New York Jets in which Allen turned the ball over four times in an upset loss, Buffalo’s signal-caller has turned it around and has been the QB1 over the last three weeks. Over that span, Allen has racked up 812 passing yards (270.7 per game) while going 72-for-94 (76.6% completion percentage) and throwing eight touchdowns and one interception.
He has risen to the top of the MVP race in large part due to his dominant performance in the Bills’ Week 4 thrashing of the Miami Dolphins in which he tallied 320 passing yards and four touchdowns, while also running one into the end zone. Allen has eclipsed this line in two of his previous three outings and faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense.
Also, the Bills are averaging 6.1 yards per play this season, which bodes well for Allen in this London-based contest. Allen doesn’t have a particularly good history against the Jaguars. But one of his previous two games came against them back in 2018 when they had an elite defense. Back in 2021, he surpassed this line against Jacksonville. Look for Allen to continue his MVP campaign…
WHAT OTHER PLAYER PROPS LOOK LIKE PROMISING BETS THIS WEEK?…
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