FullTime Fantasy

Facebook-f X-twitter Instagram Youtube

Tag: Boston Red Sox

2024 Boston Red Sox Preview

2024 Boston Red Sox Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Boston Red Sox preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.    This 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The high-flying days of the Rex Sox have left the building over the past two seasons, leading to back-to-back last-place finishes in the AL East despite winning 78 games in both years. Boston has had one playoff appearance over the past five seasons, coming after an excellent run for their franchise from 2003 to 2018 (four World Series titles and 10 trips to the postseason). The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview breaks down their 2024 chances.  For the Red Sox to push their way back into contention for a division title, they must rebuild the front of their starting rotation and find an elite shutdown arm to close games. Last year, Boston finished 21st in the majors in ERA (4.52) while serving up 208 home runs (24th). Their bullpen ranked 20th (30-28 with a 4.32 ERA, 43 saves, and 636 strikeouts over 655.2 innings).  The offense was much more competitive in runs (772 – 11th) and RBIs (734 – 11th) while lacking power bats (182 home runs – 18th). Their baserunners stole 112 bags in 138 tries (81.2%), placing them below the league average.  Boston moved on from SP Chris Sale, leading to the addition of the talented 2B Vaughn Grissom, who lacked a starting opportunity for the Braves. The Red Sox added OF Tyler O’Neill in a deal with the Cardinals for P Nick Robertson and P Victor Santos. The only other move of value was the signing of SP Lucas Giolito. Boston lost OF Adam Duvall, 3B Justin Turner, SP James Paxton, SP Corey Kluber, and SS Adalberto Mondesi to free agency, but all of these players have yet to sign with a new team. The Red Sox invested in SS Trevor Story in 2022, but he only played in 137 games over the past two years. 3B Rafael Devers is the foundation piece to the offense, while OF Masataka Yoshida handled himself well in his first year in the majors. The development of 1B Triston Casas and OF Jarren Duran late in 2023 should lead to more competitive production this season. Some of Boston’s top-hitting prospects struggled last year, leaving a potential void in their development system. The ninth inning belongs to CL Kenley Jansen, but his glory days are barely in the rearview mirror. The Red Sox starting rotation lacks star power at the front end, but all five options have a chance to beat their stats from last year. This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland’s new website (https://mlbplayingtime.com/) when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook.  Up next, the 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview. Starting Lineup 2B Vaughn Grissom Over four seasons in the minors, Grissom hit .320 with 232 runs, 32 home runs, 1,194 RBIs, and 59 stolen bases over 1,263 at-bats. His strikeout rate (13.6) and walk rate (10.4) have top-of-the-order upside. Last year, his bat showed growth at High A (.312/62/11/55/20 over 298 at-bats), leading to a promotion to AA (.363 over 91 at-bats with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and seven steals). In 2023, the fantasy market (as did I) expected Grissom to win the starting shortstop job out of spring training after a productive year (.324/72/14/67/27 over 389 at-bats) between High A and AA. The Braves also gave him 41 major league games of experience in 2022 (.291/24/5/18/5 over 141 at-bats). Unfortunately, his defense at shortstop was trailing, leading to him starting the year at AAA.  Atlanta called him up in mid-April, but Grissom failed to make an impact over 65 at-bats (.277/5/0/70) while making six errors at short over his 19 games. His bat played well at AAA (.330 with 74 runs, eight home runs, 61 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases over 397 at-bats) while underperforming expectations in power and speed. The Braves gave him 70 starts at shortstop and 31 at second base in the minors, with 10 combined errors (SS – 9 and 2B – 1). Grissom remained challenging to strike out (14.1%) with growth in his walk rate (12.0). His HR/FB rate at AAA (8.0%) was well below his outcome at High A (11.8%), AA (12.5%), and MLB (15.2%) in 2022. He has maintained a high contact batting average in his career while controlling the strike zone well. Fantasy Outlook: Other than batting average, Grissom’s 2023 stats won’t draw much attention from some shallow-digging fantasy drafters. He profiles well to bat leadoff Boston this year, with a run at a 20/35 season with 550 at-bats. His ADP (340) in the NFBC in early January should shine brightly for the fantasy market. Rarely will a fantasy drafter find a potential edge in batting average with supporting home runs and stolen bases this late in a draft. By the end of March, he should move closer to the 13th round in 15-team formats if Boston hints that he’ll hit high in their batting order. Grissom will outperform many middle infielders selected ahead of him, making him a breakaway layup based on his current draft value. SS Trevor Story In his two seasons with Boston, Story missed 187 games, with three stints (wrist,

2023 Preview: Boston Red Sox

Rafeal Devers Boston Red Sox

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Next, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Boston Red Sox. Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)  2023 Boston Red Sox Twice over the past two seasons, the Red Sox have been the cellar dwellers in the AL East. They no longer have the foundations of aces to compete for a World Series title, and Boston has seen some of their best bats move to other teams over the past few seasons.  Last year, they slipped to 25th in ERA (4.53), with a lower ranking in the bullpen (33-33 with a 4.59 ERA, 39 saves, and 627 strikeouts). Michael Wacha (3.32 ERA with 104 strikeouts over 127.1 innings) was their only asset in the starting rotation.  Their pitching future lies in the development of Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck. In addition, the Red Sox need Chris Sale to pitch like an ace or move him to a contender for some developing arms. James Paxton should prove to be a value after missing all of 2022 with his recovery from TJ surgery. When rebuilding a major league team, it makes no sense to spend on offense when your pitching isn’t ready to contend.  Boston slipped to ninth in runs (735), 20th in home runs (155), and ninth in RBIs (704). They only stole 52 bases (26th). Their best assets came in batting average (.258 – 3rd) and doubles (352 – 1st). The Red Sox lost SS Xander Bogaerts to the Padres, and OF J.D. Martinez signed with the Dodgers. Boston gave 3B Rafael Devers an 11-year contract extension worth $331 to be the face of their franchise.  In the offseason, they added 3B Justin Turner, SP Corey Kluber, CL Kenley Jansen, and OF Masataka Yoshida. They signed RP Chris Martin, RP Joely Rodriguez, and 2B Niko Goodrum in minor deals. Boston moved on from SP Rich Hill, SP Nathan Eovaldi, RP Matt Strahm, 1B Eric Hosmer, and OF Franchy Cordero. This season, Boston hopes to be in the wild-card hunt while waiting for their next generation of bats to develop in the minors. However, they can’t compete this year with the Yankees and Blue Jays, and Tampa continues to have a top-tier pitching staff. So, the Red Sox’s next big move will be finding a front-end ace via a trade or free agency. Starting Lineup OF Masataka Yoshida In early December, Boston signed Yoshida to a five-year deal worth $90 million. Over his seven seasons in Japan, he hit .326 with 425 runs, 135 home runs, 474 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases over 2,759 at-bats. His best asset has been his hit tool and plate discipline (427 walks and 307 strikeouts).  Over the past three seasons, Yoshida missed 79 out of a possible 432 games due to various injuries. He projects as a defensive liability with minimal speed. His contact batting average has had a floor of .360 over the previous five seasons, leading to his edge in batting average over this span. Yoshida had been on base more than 45% of the time in 2020 and 2021, but his run rates (32 and 26) over this span don’t project well. Fantasy Outlook: I see a line drive/groundball swing path that will lead to many singles. Yoshida should enjoy using the wall at Fenway, but I expect many of his flies to right field to end up as outs instead of in the stands. His ADP (251) in early January in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship ranks him 57th in the outfield. I only see help in batting average, making Yoshida a four-category drag in the fantasy market. My conservative bar is .290 with 75 runs, 15 home runs, 60 RBIs, and five steals with 500 at-bats. 2B Trevor Story In his first season with Boston, Story missed 68 games, with two stints (wrist and heel) on the injured list. He struggled over his first 72 at-bats (.208/8/0/6), followed by sensational production (.252 with 21 runs, nine home runs, 34 RBIs, and six stolen bases over 107 at-bats). Over his next 32 games, Story lost his approach (43 strikeouts and five walks), leading to a step back in results (.203/20/6/18/3 over 128 at-bats). He hit .340 over his final 50 at-bats, with one home run and eight RBIs.  His launch angle (17.8) has been home run favoring six of his seven years in the majors, and Story saw his barrel rate (11.3) rise for the third consecutive season. He has never had a flyball rate (45.2 in 2022 and 44.8 in his career) lower than 42.3%. Over the last three years, his HR/FB rate (13.4, 13.9, and 14.8) failed to match his 2018 (19.9) and 2019 (19.9) seasons with the Rockies. Story continues to have a slightly better-than-league average walk rate (8.1) while giving back all his gains in strikeout rate from 2018 to 2021 (25.1 – 23.4 in 2021) with Boston (30.8). In addition, his bat was an edge at home (.252 with 28 runs, 12 home runs, 39 RBIs, and three steals over 171 at-bats).  Fantasy Outlook: Story still checks the power and speed boxes, and he had his best season with the Red Sox in RBI rate (18.6). When in peak form from 2018 to 2020, he ranked in the top 10 for hitters by FPGscore. This draft season, his ADP (81) ranks him as the 46th for batters. To regain his lost value in batting average, Story must clean up his approach and push his contact batting average over .390, something he did each year from 2018 to 2020 (.405, .418, and .395). Injury Update: Story surprisingly had surgery on his right elbow on January 10th. His procedure

2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Win your league with FullTime Fantasy’s premium Fantasy Baseball coverage. Shawn Childs, Dr. Roto and Adam Ronis give you a dominating advantage!

2018 5-Star Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Win your league with FullTime Fantasy’s premium Fantasy Baseball coverage. Shawn Childs, Dr. Roto and Adam Ronis will give you an edge with their in-depth analysis so you can be prepared on draft day!