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2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview

2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Baltimore Orioles preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.    This 2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The Orioles came into last season with an over/under of 76.5 wins. They won the AL East with 101 victories while making the postseason for the first time since 2016. Since 1997, Baltimore has had one other division title (2014 – 96-66) with two other playoff appearances. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview showcases the upstart young birds.  Their pitching staff ranked seventh in the majors in ERA (3.89) while finishing with the fifth-best bullpen in ERA (3.55). Their relievers had 44 wins, 21 losses, 49 saves, and 614 strikeouts over 575.1 innings. The Orioles allowed the fourth-lowest total in home runs (177) with the most innings pitched (1,354.1).  Baltimore scored the seventh most runs (807), with the same ranking in RBIs (780). On the downside, they finished below the league average in home runs (183 – 17th). Their base stealers ran 138 times, leading to 114 stolen bases (82.6%).  In the offseason, their top signing was RP Craig Kimbrel to help cover the loss of Felix Bautista, who had TJ surgery last October. The Orioles claimed OF Sam Hilliard off waivers to add power to their bench. Baltimore lost SP Kyle Gibson, SP Jack Flaherty, RP Jorge Lopez, OF Aaron Hicks, 2B Adam Frazier, RP Shintaro Fujinami, and RP Mychal Givens to free agency. The top of the Orioles’ starting lineup has two rising stars (3B Gunnar Henderson and C Adley Rutschman), while SS Jackson Holliday looks poised to make the jump to the majors in 2024 at age 20. 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Cedric Mullins, OF Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays add veteran depth with upside.  The future success of Baltimore lies in the development of SP Grayson Rodriguez and SP Kyle Bradish. SP John Means and Dean Kremer should be better in 2024 while offering competitive innings at the backend of the Orioles’ rotation. Tyler Wells showed growth last year while working primarily as a starting pitcher. Baltimore may need his arm on the bullpen this season. The ninth inning won’t be as shutdown as 2023, but Craig Kimbrel has plenty of major league experience closing games. He has elite upside if Kimbrel throws more strikes and minimizes the damage in home runs. RP Yennier Cano posted the best season of his career at age 29, giving Baltimore some insurance to close out games. The Orioles hope P DL Hall can help in some fashion this year after giving their bullpen a boost over the final five weeks last year. His success and ceiling start with better command.  This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland’s new website (https://mlbplayingtime.com/) when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins was a waiver-wire darling in 2021, helping many fantasy teams win league and overall championships. He finished 10th in FPGscore (6.36) for hitters.  In 2022, Mullins finished with almost the same opportunity in at-bats (602 and 608), but he failed to repeat in power despite a higher fly ball rate (43.6 – 41.1 in 2021). His HR/FB rate (7.7) was more than 50% lower than in 2021 (15.5) while failing in a range more in line with his previous career. Mullins saw a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.561 – 1.781 in 2021) and contact batting average (.326 – .367 in 2021). On the positive side, he continued to have a better-than-league-average strikeout rate (18.8), with a step back in walks (7.0% – 8.7 in 2021). Despite his regression, Mullins was the 23rd most valuable hitter based on FPGscore (5.33).  Last season, His bat lost value vs. lefties (.233) and righties (.233) while spending two lengthy stints on the injured list with a groin injury. After his first 48 games, Mullins hit .283 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 39 RBIs, and 13 steals over 177 at-bats, putting on pace for a 25/40 type year with 550 at-bats. His walk rate (11.8) and strikeout rate (16.3) over this stretch showed top-of-the-order success. Mullens was a lost soul over his final 153 at-bats (.190/18/6/27/5 with eight walks and 43 strikeouts). His one bright spot from last year was his success with runners on base (RBI rate – 22). Mullins’s quest for more home runs led to a new top in his flyball rate (49.0 – 42.7 in his career), with only a slight uptick in his HR/FB rate (10.1 – 7.7 in 2021). His launch angle (21.6) was the highest of his career, with no changes in his overall exit velocity (88.9). Fantasy Outlook: Injuries were a significant factor in the demise of Mullins over the final four months of 2023. He has the foundation skill set to hit higher in the batting order, but Mullins must lose some of his desire to smash home runs if he wants a better opportunity this season. In 2021, Baltimore hit him first in their lineup for 594 of his 602 at-bats (588 of 608 in 2022 and 186 of 404 in 2023). In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), Mullins had an ADP of 139 as the 31st outfield selected.

2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview

2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview The conclusion of the football season means that fantasy fanatics can now prepare for spring training and the upcoming baseball season. Courtesy of Baseball America, NFBC Hall-of-Fame analyst Shawn Childs takes a deep dive into the 2024 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview. Baltimore shocked baseball last season by winning an AL-high 101 games. Do the young Orioles have the pitching to take the next step? Shawn breaks it down for us. Starting Pitching SP Grayson Rodriguez Baltimore selected Rodriguez in the first round (11th) of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft after completing his high school career. In his first year at A Ball, he went 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 94.0 innings. Then, after missing the COVID-19 season in 2020, Rodriguez dominated over 23 starts between High A and AA (9-1 with a 2.36 ERA, 0.825 WHIP, and 161 strikeouts over 103 innings). In 2022, Rodriguez was on the doorstep of the majors in early June (5-1 at AAA with 2.09 ERA, .168 BAA, and 80 strikeouts over 56 innings), but he left his 11th minor league start with a lat issue. After missing three months, Rodriguez struggled to find his previous form over his final 19.2 innings (nine runs and 28 baserunners) while striking out 29 batters. The excitement of Rodriguez was high when he made the Orioles’ starting rotation out of spring training. After a reasonable April (1-0 with a 4.07 ERA and 34 strikeouts over 24.1 innings), he lost his confidence over his next five starts (11.14 ERA), highlighted by his 45 baserunners and 11 home runs allowed over 21.0 innings. Baltimore shipped to AAA for the next seven weeks, where Grayson regained his edge (4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 41.1 innings). Over his final 12 starts with the Orioles, he allowed three runs or fewer in each contest, leading to a 5-2 record with a 2.26 ERA and 69 strikeouts over 71.2 innings. More importantly, Grayson only surrendered three more home runs. His average fastball (97.4) was elite in velocity. Batters struggled to hit his changeup (.191), slider (.143), and curveball (.173) while offering a losing cutter (.375). Despite growth in the second half, Grayson still battled his four-seamer (.313 with two home runs over 131 at-bats) while barely throwing his cutter. The next step in his growth is better command (3.1 walks per nine) and solving lefties (.277 with nine home runs and 24 walks over 195 innings). Fantasy Outlook: Between AAA and the majors, Grayson pitched 165 innings, putting him on track to take the mound every fifth day for Baltimore. In the early draft season in the NFBC, he has an ADP of 71 as the 21st starting pitcher selected. He looks poised to offer ace stats, with his ceiling behind limited to expected innings (180). The direction of Baltimore gives him a chance at 15+ wins with a sub-3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts. If his spring reports are on point, I expect him to push to the early fourth round in the live events in Las Vegas in March. SP Kyle Bradish Over three seasons in the minors, Bradish went 15-13 with a 3.66 ERA and 283 strikeouts over 229 innings. After struggling at AAA in 2021 (4.67 ERA and 1.431 WHIP over 86.2 innings), his arm moved quickly to the majors in 2022 after three starts (1.20 ERA and 15.0 innings with 37 strikeouts). With Baltimore, Bradish struggled in six of his first 10 starts, leading to 38 runs, 82 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 46.1 innings. A right shoulder injury pushed him to the injured list, and then he had three rehab starts in the minors in July (two runs and six baserunners over 12.2 innings with one walk and 15 strikeouts). His arm improved over his next nine starts with the Orioles (7-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 44 strikeouts over 50.2 innings). Bradish did a better job keeping the ball in the yard (0.9 per nine innings). His final four starts came @TOR, HOU, @BOS, and @NYY, resulting in two disaster showings (10 runs and 25 baserunners over 20.2 innings). Last year, Bradish outpitched his previous resume at all levels, thanks to a step forward in his command (2.3 walks per nine). He allowed two runs or fewer in 21 of his 30 starts. His arm played well vs. righties (.211) and lefties (.220), with better success at home (2.23 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 76.2 innings). Over the back half of the year, he posted an ERA of 2.25 or lower each month while being more challenging to hit after the All-Star Break (.187). The value of his slider lost about half of a mile per hour while featuring his slider (.177 BAA) as his top pitch (30.8%). His cutter (.367 BAA) remains a liability despite throwing it as his second-highest rate. Batters struggled with his sinker (.214 BAA) and curveball (.163 BAA), with some regression with his changeup (.293 BAA – better pitch in the second half ~ .210 BAA). Fantasy Outlook: Despite growth in his command, Bradish continues to have weakness in his first-pitch strike rate (57.6). He did throw more overall strikes in 2023, and his overall arsenal did support his growth. His ADP (98) is reasonable (41st pitcher), considering his progression and 2024 potential. I hate buying arms off of career year, especially the ones that helped drafters win leagues with a free price point. Trending toward 180+ innings with some pullback in ERA and WHIP should be expected. In 2023, Bradish was the 16th-ranked pitcher by FPGscore (4.19). SP John Means Twice over his first three seasons with the Orioles, Means delivered a successful year in ERA (3.60 and 3.62) and WHIP (1.135 and 1.030). He improved his first-pitch strike rate (69.3) to an elite level in 2021, but home runs allowed (30 over 146.2 innings) were a problem for the second straight season. Over his 26 starts, he gave

2023 Preview: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles

Legendary fantasy expert Shawn Childs will be breaking down all 30 teams ahead of the 2023 MLB season. This is the kind of deep-diving, advanced information you can only get from FullTimeFantasy. Up first, Shawn’s 2023 Preview: Baltimore Orioles Also, check out Shawn’s extensive breakdown of his unique FPGscore, which gives you a huge edge over the competition. Plus, you’ll learn more about other advanced metrics like Average Hit Rate (AVH) and Contact Batting Average (CTBH.)  2023 Baltimore Orioles Since 1997, the Orioles have made the postseason in three years (2012, 2014, and 2016 while finishing fourth or fifth in their division 19 times. Last season, their pitching staff allowed 267 fewer runs than in 2021 (988), leading to the 18th-ranked ERA (3.97 – 4th in the AL East). Baltimore moved the fence back last year, which was part of their improvement in pitching. The Orioles’ last World Series win and appearance came in 1983. Unfortunately, the Orioles finished 20th in runs scored (674), 16th in home runs (171), and 20th in batting average (.236). In addition, their defense made 91 errors, placing them 20th in field percentage (.985).  In the offseason, Baltimore moved on from 2B Rougned Odor, OF Brett Phillips, 1B Jesus Aguilar, IF Chris Owings, and C Robinson Chirinos. They signed 2B Adam Frazier, SP Kyle Gibson, and RP Mychal Givens, plus took fliers on Jon Lester, Nomar Mazara, and Franchy Cordero. The future of this franchise lies in the development of C Adley Rutschman, SS Gunnar Henderson, 1B Ryan Mountcastle, and SP Grayson Rodriguez.  The early over/under total for wins for the Orioles is 75.5, pointing to a step back from the growth in 2022. The top of the batting line looks competitive while needing more power to compete with the best teams in baseball. A significant part of the improvement of Baltimore last season was their bullpen (42-29 with 46 saves and 3.49 ERA over 631 innings). This season, the Orioles need Grayson Rodriguez to hit the ground running if Baltimore wants to push higher in the AL East standings. In addition, they have some young developing arms that need more major-league experience. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins was a waiver-wire darling in 2021, helping many fantasy teams win league and overall championships. He finished 10th in FPGscore (6.36) for hitters.  Last year Mullins finished with almost the same opportunity in at-bats (602 and 608), but he failed to repeat in power despite a higher fly ball rate (43.6 – 41.1 in 2021). His HR/FB rate (7.7) was more than 50% lower than in 2021 (15.5) while failing in a range more in line with his previous career. Mullins saw a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.561 – 1.781 in 2021) and contact batting average (.326 – .367 in 2021). On the positive side, he continues to have a better-than-league-average strikeout rate (18.8), with a step back in walks (7.0% – 8.7 in 2021).  Mullins lost his feel at the plate vs. left-handed pitching (.209/4/15 over 182 at-bats), and the change in dimensions in his home park showed in his stats (.243/10/39 over 296 at-bats – .294/22/37 over 306 at-bats). Despite his regression, he finished as the 23rd most valuable hitter based on FPGscore (5.33) last season.  Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, Mullins is the 33rd hitter drafted with an ADP of 48. I respect his speed while expecting repeated success in runs. However, I fear he could lose some at-bats vs. lefties while understanding the rules changes for shifts should lead to a slight rebound in batting average. I view him as a .265/85/20/60/30 player who falls in a draft range with some more dynamic hitters. C Adley Rutschman Baltimore drafted Rutschman in the first round in the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. He came into college with a light-hitting swing. His power developed in 2019 (17 home runs over 185 at-bats) at Oregon State, along with his approach (76 walks and 38 strikeouts over 266 plate appearances). After missing development time in the 2020 Covid-19 season, Rutschman handled himself well at AA (.271 over 295 at-bats with 61 runs, 18 home runs, 55 RBI, and one steal). He finished with strength in his walk rate (15.4) while posting a better-than-major ready strikeout rate (15.9). Last year, Rutschman developed a triceps issue in his throwing arm, leading to him missing most of April. He hit .304 over 69 at-bats over three levels of the minors with 12 runs, three home runs, and 10 RBI. After a slow start over 126 at-bats with Baltimore (.206/15/3/9), Rutschman hit his stride over the final 79 games (.276 with 55 runs, 10 home runs, 33 RBI, and three steals over 272 at-bats), highlighted by a bump in production in September (.270/17/5/17 over 115 at-bats). His swing offered emptiness vs. left-handed pitching (.174/9/1/5 over 98 at-bats). He finished the year with an elite walk rate (13.8) and a favorable strikeout rate (18.3).  Rutschman hit 12 of his 13 home runs right of centerfield, but many of his hits went the other way.  Fantasy Outlook: Based on Rutschman’s average hit rate (1.752), he should have no problem smashing 25 home runs this season. His approach and success at the plate will be much improved in his sophomore year. There is no doubt that Baltimore will give plenty of at-bats at DH to help his fantasy value and production. Rutschman should lead all catchers in runs while chipping in with a handful of steals. In the NFBC in early January, he is the fourth catcher off the board with an ADP of 63. His next step in growth is solving lefties (.350/7/25 over 140 at-bats in 2021 in the minors). Rutschman is in my thoughts with a bright shade of green, but I will struggle to roster him as my second bat if I start my team with a pair of aces. With 525 at-bats, .280+ with 90+ runs, 25+ home runs,

2022 Fantasy Baseball: Baltimore Orioles Team Outlook

Player profiles, stats and analysis for Baltimore Orioles hitters and pitchers. Shawn Childs – as published on SI. The Orioles have been the cellar dwellers in the AL East over their last four full seasons (fourth over a 60-game schedule in 2020 with a 25-35 record). They won 54 games or fewer in 2018 (47-115), 2019 (54-108) and 2021 (52-110). Baltimore finished a combined 158 games out of first place over these three seasons. Last year, they finished last in the majors in ERA (5.84), which was more than a run-and-a-half higher than the league average. In essence, the Orioles pitching staff gave up two-plus runs a game to the Rays (3.67 ERA) and Yankees (3.74 ERA). In addition, Baltimore allowed the most home runs (258) in baseball. Their offense finished 26th in runs scored (659) with 195 home runs (17th) and 54 stolen bases (25th). On the positive side, the age of their average batter came in at 26.7 (youngest offensive team in the majors). The Orioles signed 2B Rougned Odor, C Jacob Nottingham, C Anthony Bemboom and SP Jordan Lyles in the offseason. The best player lost to free agency was 3B Maikel Franco, who signed with the Nationals. Baltimore has two elite prospects (C Adley Rutschman and SP Grayson Rodriguez) in their farm system. Both players had success at AA in 2021, pointing to their major league debuts coming sometime after May. Shortstop and third base have questionable options in the middle of January, but the Orioles may upgrade those positions via free agency after the lockout ends. The foundation of Baltimore’s offense is built around 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Trey Mancini, OF Cedric Mullins and OF Austin Hays. The starting rotation has one pitcher (John Means) of value. Many of their pitching prospects gained some major league experience in 2021, but no arm appeared ready to handle an entire season of starts in the majors. Without improvement in the foundation of their starting staff, the Orioles can’t make a run at even the .500 mark. Baltimore’s bullpen also had the worst ERA (5.70) in baseball while earning 28 wins, 34 losses and 26 saves. They allowed 109 home runs over 666.2 innings with 296 walks and 637 strikeouts. Every role in this bullpen will be in flux again in 2022. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins helped many fantasy owners win league titles in his first full season with Baltimore. He outperformed his five-year minor league resume (.265 over 2,013 at-bats with 318 runs, 51 home runs, 213 RBI and 110 stolen bases) by a wide margin in batting average (.291) and home runs (30). Before 2021, Mullins never hit more than 14 home runs in any season in the minors. His walk rate (8.7) fell in line with his success in the minors in 2019 (8.9). He lowered his strikeout rate to 18.5%, but it still came in higher than his minor league career (15.2). Mullins had a similar batting average at home (.294) and on the road (.287) while delivering 22 of his 30 home runs in Baltimore. His swing path came in balanced while setting a new top in his HR/FB rate (15.5). He appeared to square up more balls compared to a high number of infield flyouts over 204 at-bats with the Orioles in 2019 and 2020. Fantasy Outlook This draft season, Mullins has an early ADP of 29, making him a much more challenging player to roster. I respect his value in steals, and his approach should come in above the league average. However, he struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 11), and Mullins would need a lot to go right to repeat his output in power. With an entire season of at-bats, I’ll set his bar at .270 with 80 runs, 18 home runs, 55 RBI and a chance at 35-plus steals. OF Austin Hays Three games into 2021, Hays landed on the injured list for two weeks with a hamstring issue. The same injury cost him another 14 games in late May and early June. Over the first four months of the year, he hit .237 with 43 runs, 10 home runs and 36 RBI over 266 at-bats. Hays found his hitting stroke over his final 58 games (.279 over 222 at-bats with 30 runs, 12 home runs, 35 RBI). His average hit rate (1.800) fell in line with his 2018 and 2019 seasons, but he finished with a weaker contact batting average (.328). Hays handled himself well against lefties (.308 with 11 home runs and 30 RBI over 198 at-bats). His walk rate (5.3) remains in a weak area while posting a better than league average strikeout rate (20.2). Fantasy Outlook Early in his minor league career, Hays had the look of a 30-plus home run hitter with a high floor in batting average. Unfortunately, injuries have cost him development time at the major league level, but his bat did shine with runners on base (RBI rate – 17) in 2021. In addition, he’ll chip in with a handful of steals, and Baltimore should hit him between second and fifth in the batting order this year. Hays looks poised to push over 30 home runs with a sneaky ceiling in batting average. His ADP (207) puts him in buying range while still owning injury risk. 1B Ryan Mountcastle In his first full season with Baltimore, Mountcastle underachieved in batting average (.232) and contact batting average (.320). He hit .295 in his minor-league career over 2,078 at-bats with 70 home runs, 274 RBI and 27 stolen bases, with a much higher contact batting average (.375). He struggled over his 48 games in 2021 (.225 with four home runs, 20 RBI and three steals over 173 at-bats) due to a high strikeout rate (32.1). Mountcastle played well in June (.327/17/9/26), followed by a quiet July (.205/10/3/10). Despite missing 10 days in August, he finished the year with an uptick in power over his final 48 games (.262

2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Win your league with FullTime Fantasy’s premium Fantasy Baseball coverage. Shawn Childs, Dr. Roto and Adam Ronis give you a dominating advantage!

2018 5-Star Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Win your league with FullTime Fantasy’s premium Fantasy Baseball coverage. Shawn Childs, Dr. Roto and Adam Ronis will give you an edge with their in-depth analysis so you can be prepared on draft day!