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The Ambush – NFL Week 8 DFS plays from Steve Renner

WEEK 8 INTRODUCTION Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week. WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS?   These are my

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The Ambush – NFL Week 7 DFS plays from Steve Renner

Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week. WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS?   These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays.    In some cases, they’re locks in cash, in some cases they’re locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups. Last Week:   Cousins (Just OK), CMC (Horrible), Crabtree (Money), Reed (WTF), Bengals D (Dagger)   WEEK 7 INTRODUCTION Holy smoke balls, what a set of late breaking news we had at the end of this week with the Cleveland Browns sending Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville on Friday and it immediately sent everyone into a zombie frenzy of over-reaction to the news as if we now have a #1 running back that is going to light the world on fire for min price in Nick Chubb.   Chubb is very talented, comes from a good program for RB at Georgia and should become the feature back for the Browns along side Duke Johnson as a pass catching RB going forward.  The Browns this week are facing the laughing stock of the league defensively in the Tampa Bay Bucs who fired their DC Mike Smith (RIP #Smitty, you will always have a place in the Hall of Fame for all the yards you have allowed to Drew Brees) earlier this week after another horrific showing defensively against the Falcons last week. So now everyone is all over Chubb.  Stop.   Just stop. First off.  The match-up is not amazing for Chubb.  Tampa is so much of a funnel defense to the run it’s not crazy.  They’re top 5 overall statistically against the rush in raw yards but near the bottom in DVOA.  The reason for the gap?  They are ATROCIOUS in the secondary and everyone thrashes them through the air.  So this means that even if they’re not a stone wall defensively up front they’re not gonna likely turn around and hand off to Chubb 20+ times this week.  Furthermore, I was on and remain on Duke Johnson, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku as viable options for Cleveland this week.  Let’s break these guys down for a moment here. Jarvis Landry at only 6500 this week on FanDuel is in a fantastic spot.  He saw 10+ targets vs the Bucs last year and should see 10+ again this week and should do a better job catching against the Bucs secondary than last week vs the Chargers.  Lets lock him in for 7+ catches and 80 yards here.   He is the #1 target in this offense. David Njoku is only 5700 on FanDuel and faces the WORST defense against Tight Ends and is increasing his volume now that Baker has taken over the QB role in Cleveland.  Njoku at a week position is going to be 50%+ in cash and likely 40%+ in tournaments this week.  He’s the #2 target in this offense. Duke Johnson is the pass catching RB and someone to consider in tournaments this week if we go heavy on this game to play for a shootout (which I’m not high on) or decide to play TD variance and fade Landry/Njoku.  Johnson’s skill set on the road should help Baker on third down situations. All three of those guys are in GOOD positions this week and I’ll admit that Chubb is about equal to Johnson in terms of how good of a spot he is in.  So the reasons for the love affair with Chubb are as follows People are sheep People want to believe in a rookie, the new shiny toy, the guy who had 2 huge runs vs the Raiders a couple weeks ago (and nothing else) He is dirt cheap at 4800 on FanDuel (which really isnt that cheap honestly) and 3800 on DraftKings (where almost everyone is close this free week — TODD GURLEYS PRICE WENT DOWN!, but I’ll get to DK in a moment) So lets stop here for a minute….   Folks are saying Chubb is a MUST play in cash because of his price.  He is a “free square” that opens everything up for you… Uhhh.  Well, I already had two high priced RB and a high priced WR in my cash lineup — but okay.  What’s he gonna open up now?   Ask yourself this on in a cash lineup. Are you playing Jarvis Landry, the #1 target in the Browns offense and a PPR machine against the worst secondary in the league? Are you playing David Njoku, the #2 target in the Browns offense and facing the worst defense against TE in the league? Are you correlating them with Baker Mayfield who isn’t that expensive in his own right? If you answered yes to 2 of the 3 or even all 3 … then stop … You want to make it 3 or 4 Browns in cash?  A team that is not built to blow teams out?   Yes?  Do you think Cleveland (a road dog, who hasn’t won a road game in ….. how long???) is going to go into Tampa (honestly not an easy place to play at 1pm) and win 41-3?  31-10?  31-28?   I don’t…  But let’s say they do.  Lets say they blow them out 41-10.   You get a TD from everyone, you did it.  You nailed the Cleveland Browns stack……   In cash……   Cool.   You also just played the chalk in a tournament. Orrrrrrrrrrrrr….  Maybe it’s a shootout on both sides and it’s that last score, the 31-28 type….   Well.  The other side of this game is 2% owned.  And the other side is ONE SIDED on the passing attack as their ground game will do NOTHING this week.  So why aren’t you playing Winston, Evans, Godwin, Jackson, Brate???? Play the

The Ambush – NFL Week 6 DFS plays from Steve Renner

Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week. WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS?   These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays.    In some cases, they’re locks in cash, in some cases they’re locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups. Last Week:   Rodgers (won the Milli-Maker, top QB on the slate.  BAM).   Ty Montgomery (DUD),  Kenn Golloday (Solid), Zach Ertz (Solid) Daily Fantasy Sports and Fantasy Sports in general should be fun.   We should have fun with the bold calls and the banter back and forth between folks (touts, subs, etc.) who are enjoying the great sports and the fantasy games that we have created around them.  Those of you who have followed me know that I really focus on a couple sports specifically MLB, NFL, NHL …. I don’t write content for NBA and I while I have done College content it’s not my primary sport by any stretch.  I’m not a PGA guy, I’m not a NASCAR guy, etc…   Why?  Well, I don’t enjoy those secondary sports as much.  The person bringing you content should be PASSIONATE about the sport they’re resarching and playing — yes, you HAVE to be a player of the sport you are writing about to have any credibility.  I am a fan first in all methods and we should remember to keep things fun.  But something came to me the other day when thinking about my article this week. I’m not writing just for fun.  No.  I enjoy it.  I enjoy the sport.  I enjoy fantasy. But let’s be clear.  I am writing and analyzing to make money and to make you money.  And we have to seperate our favorite/fun plays from the ones that we identify as the correct plays for a given week.  I wanted to re-iterate that the picks you are hearing are the ones I truly believe in.  And it’s gonna be more evident than ever this week in my picks as there’s a ton of players here that I’m not exactly fond of most of the time but this week I believe them to be the right plays…  I’m sure you trust me already, but I just wanted to point this out again….   After all, when have you known me to be a homer?     THE AMBUSH PLAYS QB:  KIRK COUSINS While you were sleeping on the Quarterback spot, I’m out here running an AMBUSH onside kick these last two weeks….    There are two guys that are going to dominate the ownership at Quarterback this week and they’re in the same game.  Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan.  There’s a very good chance with them being in the same game that we see a situation where either both go off or both flop.  It’s a game that has the highest total on the board this week and features two of the worst passing defenses in the league so far this season.  So let’s play this out for a minute, okay?   If the game blows up and Winston/Ryan are going off then it really doesn’t matter a ton which one you have in logical sense (although I have a take on that later on, but just go with the general though here for a minute).  So if Winston comes in around 30% owned and Ryan is 20% owned then that means half the field has a good QB in tournaments.  Yes, I think they’re that high and in cash games they’re going to be close to 70-80% of the ownership.   So, again, if the game is going off both are going well and any other QB is basically negated.  But if the game is a dud.  More pounts, lower scoring, running back dominated or even a blowout on one side, then we’re seeing a situation where they’re both negated.  The blowout QB is going to have less of a ceiling and obvious the guy getting blown out is having a bad day.  So you’re either going Winston because he is the cheaper of the two or getting completely off the game in general. Now….  Let’s address this mediocre QB I soberly have decided to put into my article that I spend plenty of time each week putting together.   Mr. Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings.   Spare me the You like that bullshit. I will go to my grave that this is a mediocre Quarterback.  But what do mediocre Quarterbacks do?  They feast on below average defenses.  The Cardinals have one cornerback on defense who can cover and typically when they’re matched up against a team with multiple elite WR weapons like the Vikings have with Diggs and Thielen they will struggle as it’s a lopsided matchup.  Thielen should feast against the Cardinals and this is the week that Kyle Rudolph gets into the box as he is the guy the Vikings use in the red zone and not Lat Murray or the return of Dalvin Cook.  Cousins going for 300+ yards and 3 TD today is going to be the target here and I think he gets this as it’s a relatively easy matchup for him.  The Vikings running game has not gotten going and with an offensive line that is shuffling I think they’ll end up with more passing situations than folks imagine here.  Cousins is the same price range as Matt Ryan this week on DraftKings but will be about 2% owned. I can’t believe it.  But, Kirky Cousins is my favorite QB play off the Winston/Ryan chalk. Where I am using him:   In DFS which is depressing enough, but $100 and up SE and MME. Lineup Correlation:   Pair Cousins with Thielen, Rudolph and Larty