2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview
2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Baltimore Orioles preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This 2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. The Orioles came into last season with an over/under of 76.5 wins. They won the AL East with 101 victories while making the postseason for the first time since 2016. Since 1997, Baltimore has had one other division title (2014 – 96-66) with two other playoff appearances. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Baltimore Orioles Preview showcases the upstart young birds. Their pitching staff ranked seventh in the majors in ERA (3.89) while finishing with the fifth-best bullpen in ERA (3.55). Their relievers had 44 wins, 21 losses, 49 saves, and 614 strikeouts over 575.1 innings. The Orioles allowed the fourth-lowest total in home runs (177) with the most innings pitched (1,354.1). Baltimore scored the seventh most runs (807), with the same ranking in RBIs (780). On the downside, they finished below the league average in home runs (183 – 17th). Their base stealers ran 138 times, leading to 114 stolen bases (82.6%). In the offseason, their top signing was RP Craig Kimbrel to help cover the loss of Felix Bautista, who had TJ surgery last October. The Orioles claimed OF Sam Hilliard off waivers to add power to their bench. Baltimore lost SP Kyle Gibson, SP Jack Flaherty, RP Jorge Lopez, OF Aaron Hicks, 2B Adam Frazier, RP Shintaro Fujinami, and RP Mychal Givens to free agency. The top of the Orioles’ starting lineup has two rising stars (3B Gunnar Henderson and C Adley Rutschman), while SS Jackson Holliday looks poised to make the jump to the majors in 2024 at age 20. 1B Ryan Mountcastle, OF Cedric Mullins, OF Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays add veteran depth with upside. The future success of Baltimore lies in the development of SP Grayson Rodriguez and SP Kyle Bradish. SP John Means and Dean Kremer should be better in 2024 while offering competitive innings at the backend of the Orioles’ rotation. Tyler Wells showed growth last year while working primarily as a starting pitcher. Baltimore may need his arm on the bullpen this season. The ninth inning won’t be as shutdown as 2023, but Craig Kimbrel has plenty of major league experience closing games. He has elite upside if Kimbrel throws more strikes and minimizes the damage in home runs. RP Yennier Cano posted the best season of his career at age 29, giving Baltimore some insurance to close out games. The Orioles hope P DL Hall can help in some fashion this year after giving their bullpen a boost over the final five weeks last year. His success and ceiling start with better command. This year, I’ll be looking at Mike Kurland’s new website (https://mlbplayingtime.com/) when doing some of my research for each major league team. His research is a reference point, but I’ll take my stances on how I view rosters as I go through each team’s outlook. Starting Lineup OF Cedric Mullins Mullins was a waiver-wire darling in 2021, helping many fantasy teams win league and overall championships. He finished 10th in FPGscore (6.36) for hitters. In 2022, Mullins finished with almost the same opportunity in at-bats (602 and 608), but he failed to repeat in power despite a higher fly ball rate (43.6 – 41.1 in 2021). His HR/FB rate (7.7) was more than 50% lower than in 2021 (15.5) while failing in a range more in line with his previous career. Mullins saw a sharp decline in his average hit rate (1.561 – 1.781 in 2021) and contact batting average (.326 – .367 in 2021). On the positive side, he continued to have a better-than-league-average strikeout rate (18.8), with a step back in walks (7.0% – 8.7 in 2021). Despite his regression, Mullins was the 23rd most valuable hitter based on FPGscore (5.33). Last season, His bat lost value vs. lefties (.233) and righties (.233) while spending two lengthy stints on the injured list with a groin injury. After his first 48 games, Mullins hit .283 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 39 RBIs, and 13 steals over 177 at-bats, putting on pace for a 25/40 type year with 550 at-bats. His walk rate (11.8) and strikeout rate (16.3) over this stretch showed top-of-the-order success. Mullens was a lost soul over his final 153 at-bats (.190/18/6/27/5 with eight walks and 43 strikeouts). His one bright spot from last year was his success with runners on base (RBI rate – 22). Mullins’s quest for more home runs led to a new top in his flyball rate (49.0 – 42.7 in his career), with only a slight uptick in his HR/FB rate (10.1 – 7.7 in 2021). His launch angle (21.6) was the highest of his career, with no changes in his overall exit velocity (88.9). Fantasy Outlook: Injuries were a significant factor in the demise of Mullins over the final four months of 2023. He has the foundation skill set to hit higher in the batting order, but Mullins must lose some of his desire to smash home runs if he wants a better opportunity this season. In 2021, Baltimore hit him first in their lineup for 594 of his 602 at-bats (588 of 608 in 2022 and 186 of 404 in 2023). In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), Mullins had an ADP of 139 as the 31st outfield selected.