2024 New York Giants Fantasy Preview
2024 New York Giants Fantasy Preview After a surprisingly successful 2022 campaign, New York had a disastrous 2023 season. Unfortunately, the offense could look worse in 2024 after losing RB Saquon Barkley. The Giants found a replacement for Barkley in
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2024 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Preview
2024 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Preview The Dallas Cowboys had a great 2023 regular season despite a new-look offense. After surpassing the Philadelphia Eagles and finishing atop the NFC East with a 12-5 record, the Cowboys secured the No. 2 seed
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2024 New York Jets Fantasy Preview
2024 New York Jets Fantasy Preview New York’s 2023 season was over before it started after Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury on the second play. All the hype before last season is now being transferred to 2024 with Rodgers expected to be fully healthy. The Jets have a ton of bonafide studs in the fantasy football landscape. 2022 second-round pick Breece Hall broke out in his second professional season and finished as the RB2 in PPR formats. Hall was electric, finishing with over 1,500 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns. Only Christian McCaffrey scored more fantasy points. Opposing defenses will no longer be able to stack the box to contain the run as they will have to respect Rodgers’s arm. Garrett Wilson also showcased some serious skills in 2023. Despite losing his signal caller, New York’s go-to target finished with 95 receptions and 1,042 yards but only found the end zone three times. Wilson should be a WR1 in all formats with Rodgers back in the fold. The Jets also signed former Los Angeles Chargers wideout, Mike Williams who could be a solid mid-round value. He’s a big guy who can highpoint the football and find the end zone. He often played second fiddle to Keenan Allen in LA so the transition to New York with Rodgers and Wilson could be the ideal fit. “With Aaron Rodgers healthy and a rebuilt offensive line, the Jets should have a phenomenal passing offense. Wilson has had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons despite playing with eight different quarterbacks so he should shine with Rodgers.” – Jake Asman, The Jake Asman Show Though Rodgers was drafted as a top-15 quarterback last season, can he be a starting quarterback in fantasy with father time knocking on the door and his physical limitations increasingly apparent in recent years? The four-time MVP enters a scenario with promising talent but the offensive line has to protect him. Rodgers’ pressured passer rating has recently declined: 2020: 89.3 2021: 67.9 2022: 62.6 The Jets ranked fourth highest in sacks allowed and also stood at 23rd in average yards per catch after reception. Will Rodgers have enough time to find his targets in 2024? That’s the big question for the new offensive line. If so, Rodgers can deliver QB1 numbers and lead the Jets to the postseason. However, if the Jets struggle in the trenches, it will limit this team’s fantasy prowess from top to bottom. Quarterbacks QB Rodgers, Aaron, NYJ – Gamble (high risk) Aaron Rodgers is a polarizing figure, both on and off the field. On one hand, he’s one of the game’s all-time great signal callers. Ignoring his brief 2023 run, Rodgers still showcased excellent arm strength, and the ability to diagnose and dismantle the opposing defense. On the other hand, Rodgers, 40, is on a three-year decline in accuracy, yards, touchdowns, and big-time throw rate while tossing the second-most interceptions of his career in 2022. His rushing production has also plummeted each year since 2018. However, the Jets have some intriguing young skill position talent marred by a substandard offensive line. It paints the picture of Rodgers being a high-risk/reward fantasy option in his Jets redux. ADVICE: Risk/Reward QB2 Running Backs RB Hall, Breece, NYJ – Stud (low risk) Breece Hall had a miraculous recovery from a torn ACL that ended his rookie season. Hall returned to play all 17 games, led all running backs in targets (95), and topped double-digit fantasy points in eight of his final 13 starts. This is doubly impressive when you consider just how impotent the Jets passing attack was without Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers back, two new starting tackles, and a vastly improved supporting cast, Hall will find much more success on the ground. He’s an elite all-around talent who should be nabbed in the first round of every fantasy draft this summer. ADVICE: Elite three-down back with league-winning potential RB Allen, Braelon, NYJ– Fantasy Handcuff ADVICE: A sizable power back, Allen is only 20 years old. Allen will compete for the No. 2 job behind Breece Hall and could factor in as a short-yardage option with underrated pass-catching skills. A solid late-round handcuff target. Wide Receivers WR Wilson, Garrett, NYJ – Stud (low risk) A popular breakout candidate last season, Garrett Wilson’s production was impeded after the season-ending injury to QB Aaron Rodgers. Yet, Wison still ranked fourth in the league with 168 targets and a robust 29.9% target share. With Rodgers back, Wilson will see a boost in yards per route and downfield participation. Additionally, an improved line and supporting cast will help open things up for Wilson. Rodgers has a long history of prioritizing his top wideout early and often. Wilson is an elite talent and it’s only a matter of time before he busts out in a huge way. ADVICE: Avoid recency bias. Wilson is a prime year three breakout candidate WR Williams, Mike, NYJ – Quality Backup Mike Williams was off to a fast start last season, posting WR15 numbers before tearing his ACL in Week 3. Williams is recovering well from surgery and is expected to be ready for the season opener. He signed a one-year deal with the Jets and will add a downfield element that complements Garrett Wilson well. From 2021-2023, Williams was a top-20 wideout in fantasy points per game, which bodes well for his potential in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. However, Williams is 30 and coming off a major knee injury that could impact his speed. He’s a risk/reward flex option with some upside. ADVICE: Williams is a risk/reward flex option coming off of a major injury WR Corley, Malachi, NYJ – Deep-league Only ADVICE: A versatile and physical wideout who drew pre-draft comparisons to Deebo Samuel, Corley landed in a good spot with the Jets. He’s got a solid chance of opening the season as the slot receiver in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. That makes Corley a solid late-round flier. Tight Ends TE Conklin, Tyler, NYJ – Sleeper (undervalued) Conklin’s 87 targets
Vegas is Fading This Highly-coveted Rookie WR
Vegas is Fading This Highly-coveted Rookie WR in 2024. Long-time Las Vegas gambler and ranked high-stakes fantasy player Frank Taddeo (@RespectedMoney on X) is always watching Vegas oddsmakers to identify best bets and fantasy values. THIS WR IS PROJECTED TO STRUGGLE FOR PRODUCTION. In my first installment of highlighting players witnessing significant movement in their 2024 NFL betting markets here at Fulltime Fantasy, we dove into a rookie running back expected to make a major impact in 2024. A major component of my success playing high-stakes fantasy football at the FFWC is incorporating player projections of oddsmakers into my NFL model. I began creating my model in 2010 when I created the only over-the-counter DFS program offered to date in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Today, we are going to focus on Chicago rookie wideout Rome Odunze. The former Washington Huskies standout was drafted ninth overall by the Bears after the club tabbed Caleb Williams first overall. The Bears envision the young tandem to become the face of the club’s offensive attack for the next decade and beyond. We could get used to this 🤩 pic.twitter.com/Ps02poArjz — Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) May 30, 2024 Many fantasy managers are investing early draft capital in Chicago’s veteran wideouts D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. In early FFWC drafts Moore owns an ADP of 25 / WR18, while Allen can be found with an ADP of 49 / WR31. Meanwhile, Odunze is coming off the board much later with an ADP of 84 / WR46. Check out the FullTime Fantasy Rookie Scouting Profile for Rome Odunze here. Moore and Allen are likely to grab the majority of the target share while new pass-catching running back D’Andre Swift will also snag looks out of the backfield resulting in Odunze struggling for targets in his first season. VEGAS ODDSMAKERS FADING POTENTIAL PRODUCTION Oddsmakers, who initially installed Odunze with a receiving yards betting projection of 825.5, have adjusted the rookie talent with the biggest move of any wideout in the receiving yards market. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound dynamic threat now only sits with a betting demand of 675.5 at DraftKings. In addition, oddsmakers are becoming less bullish on his red-zone involvement slicing his receiving touchdown projection from 5.5 to 4.5. “NEARLY A 200 YARD MOVE PRIOR TO TRAINING CAMP SHOULD SET OFF FANTASY ALARMS.” – Frank Taddeo When oddsmakers make this significant of a move, this far out before training camp and preseason games, fantasy managers need to be cognizant. Oduzne, who currently has an ADP of WR46, came off the board at 9.10 in a Circa Championship draft held on June 23. HE IS HIM‼️ Rome Odunze is the first Washington player since 2002-2003 to have back-to-back 1,000 rec yard seasons 🔥 @UW_Football pic.twitter.com/mK7UkZQvj6 — SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 11, 2023 Odunze, who played four seasons at Washington, exploded over his final two years, hauling in 167 receptions for 2,745 yards and 20 touchdowns emerging as one of the best wide receivers in the nation. In Chicago, Odunze will have to battle Moore and Allen for targets while also sharing the middle of the field with two proven tight end receiving options in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. Fantasy managers should not be afraid to invest in the rookie in Dynasty leagues. However, re-draft players may be better served pivoting to other wideout options demanding similar draft capital such as Jameson Williams, Keon Coleman, Josh Downs, Xavier Worthy, or Curtis Samuel. For the past 15 years, Football Contest Proxy has provided the leading service to submit picks in major Las Vegas football contests from anywhere in the world and built FootballContest.com into the top online destination for football contest info. All you need to do to enter is sign up in person sometime before football season kicks off. FCP does the rest as your proxy – it really is that easy. Simply plan your trip to Vegas and schedule a time with FCP to get signed up for whatever contest(s) you want to enter. As a proxy partner of FullTimeFantasy, you can also SAVE $50 through September 2 by clicking here. Just enter promo code FANTASY at checkout for instant savings, so make your best pick and go with the pros at FootballContest.com!
2024 New England Patriots Fantasy Preview
2024 New England Patriots Fantasy Preview The New England Patriots will move into a new era after selecting Drake Maye out of UNC with the No. 3 Draft pick. Maye has the prototypical size of an NFL quarterback with exceptional arm talent and reliable running ability. He can stand in the pocket and has great velocity and deep-ball accuracy. However, if his first read is covered, he is often prone to mistakes and occasionally lacks accuracy on intermediate throws. While he’s certainly an upgrade from Mac Jones, he won’t be fantasy-relevant except in Superflex and dynasty formats. New England doesn’t have a ton of offensive firepower and will likely struggle in Maye’s debut season. Look for the Patriots to lean on the running game with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson in the backfield. Stevenson only played 12 games last season but still finished as the RB35 and averaged 12.1 PPR points per game. He’s one year removed from a 1,000-yard season. Stevenson should get the bulk of the early down opportunities but Gibson will see plenty of action in a change-of-pace role. Maye will likely check it down as much as possible until he gets used to the speed of the NFL, so Gibson could be a sneaky late-round fantasy pick. The Pats have some solid tight ends in Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, and even rookies Mitchell Wilcox and Jaheim Bell. But New England’s receivers leave a lot to be desired. Mac Jones was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last year while having to lean on receivers Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. None of those players instill fear in opposing secondaries. Douglas was the most efficient wideout on the roster in 2023 but only managed to finish as the WR63 in PPR formats. The Pats realized that to compete, they needed to improve their skill position players. Enter second-round Washington WR Ja’Lynn Polk. Polk should be on the field in three-receiver sets next to Bourne and Douglas. Additionally, the Patriots also took a shot on Javon Baker out of UCF in the fourth round but he’ll be more of a project. For the first time in two decades, the New England Patriots are in a complete rebuild. They aren’t expected to contend but they have some young players worth monitoring. Overall, this is not an offense to prioritize in fantasy drafts. Quarterbacks QB DRAKE MAYE – BYE WEEK FILL-IN Drake Maye has the toughest road of the presumptive 2024 rookie starters. New England is just starting a rebuild after falling to 30th in offense and last in scoring in 2023. Maye (6-4, 223) has ideal size, excellent athleticism, and a cannon arm. On the other hand, Maye was a divisive prospect whose production plummeted when facing pressure and he struggled to consistently go through progressions. Additionally, the Patriots will give veteran Jacoby Brissett every opportunity to open the season as their starter. New England also has the second-lowest win total this season. Even if he starts Week 1, Maye will face plenty of attrition this year, making him a fantasy option to avoid. ADVICE: QB2 only in dynasty formats QB JACOBY BRISSETT – LOW POTENTIAL ADVICE: If Drake Maye isn’t deemed ready the Pats won’t hesitate to open the season with Brissett under center. The veteran journeyman is capable of posting solid fantasy QB2 numbers in spurts. Subsequently, Brissett is becoming more fantasy-relevant in deeper Superflex drafts. Running Backs RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON – QUALITY BACKUP Stevenson was a popular breakout candidate last summer. However, New England put the ‘offense’ in offensive and Stevenon’s season was cut short due to a high-ankle sprain. Before going down, Stevenson was averaging 15.0 fantasy points per game in the final four games in which he received double-digit carries. The Patriots are projected to win the fewest games in the AFC. They also have the league’s second-toughest schedule. Additionally, Antonio Gibson looms as a threat to cut into Stevenson’s receiving role. Stevenson should lead the backfield in carries and if Gibson struggles to adapt, could be a sneaky ‘hero’ RB candidate at a discounted price. ADVICE: Flex play with some pass-catching. RB ANTONIO GIBSON – QUALITY BACKUP Gibson only had a 43% success rate in zone concepts last season, some 10% worse than Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots will switch to a zone-blocking scheme. That means Gibson may be reduced to change-of-pace duties. Gibson has been a productive receiver but appears to firmly be the RB2 behind Stevenson. Things can change, of course. There has been some talk of Gibson having a legitimate chance of unseating Stevenson and being a quality post-hype sleeper. However, the analytics have not been in his favor. View Gibson as more of an RB4/5 with some pass-catching upside. ADVICE: RB4 with limited potential in a zone-blocking scheme. Wide Receivers WR DEMARIO DOUGLAS – BYE WEEK FILL-IN Douglas emerged as New England’s top receiver last year, catching 49-of-79 targets for 561 scoreless yards. He commanded a healthy 24.8% target share but wasn’t particularly effective. Douglas ended up with a negative EPA for an offense that ranked 28th in passing. New England’s 2024 offense is in a state of flux, with a new quarterback and several new pass-catchers added to the mix. Douglas is the favorite to open the season as the Patriots’ slot receiver but he’s assuredly going to see a reduced target share. He’s little more than a WR5/6 in deeper leagues. ADVICE: Will contend for starting slot duties but has very little fantasy value. WR KENDRICK BOURNE – BYE WEEK FILL-IN ADVICE: Bourne will enter training camp penciled in as one of New England’s starters. But with a new regime, new quarterback, and added competition, he is by no means a sure bet. View Bourne as an end-of-roster depth add with limited ceiling. WR JA’LYNN POLK – BYE WEEK FILL-IN ADVICE: New England’s receiving corps is tough to handicap, but Polk has good size (6-1, 203,) hands, and excelled against zone coverage. The odds are good that Polk will earn a
2024 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Preview
2024 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Preview The Dolphins had a fantastic 2023 season but fell apart in the postseason after losing to the eventual champs. However, Tua Tagovailoa had a strong campaign with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal, not to mention one of the best running games in the league with Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane. Plus, the Dolphins just signed Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year deal. Miami’s success in 2024 hinges on the continued growth of Tagovailoa, whose precision and astute decision-making suggested undeniable potential. While questions persisted regarding his arm strength and leadership when facing adversity, he proved a lot of neighsayers wrong with his deep-ball accuracy. Tyreek Hill was the second-best wideout in fantasy football after finishing with 119 receptions, a league-high 1,799 yards, and 13 trips to the end zone. Waddle finished as the WR34, corralling 72 receptions for 1,014 yards and four scores in 14 games. Miami’s passing attack will be full throttle again in 2024 and both key members of the backfield return. Raheem Mostert led the league with a whopping 21 touchdowns and surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. Devon Acahne showed flashes of dominance in 2023 and should build upon his impressive rookie season. Despite missing six games, Achane managed to finish as the RB24 in PPR leagues and was a top-five running back in FPPG (17.3). Achane is positioned as a mid-range RB1 heading into the 2024 season, which reflects the scarcity of dependable running back choices. Weighing in at 188 pounds, he may not shoulder a workload of 300 touches, but he could still make a significant fantasy impact if he remains efficient and contributes in the passing game. The Phins also added Tennessee speedster Jaylen Wright to the fold in Round Four. Last season, Tyreek Hill said, “I’ve won a Super Bowl and I feel like this is the better team than when I was in Kansas City.” With a healthy Tagovailoa, championship aspirations aren’t outlandish. Achane averaged a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry and if he can even come close to that, Miami’s offense will be difficult to defend. Pick your poison but no matter what, a member of the Dolphins is going to burn you– be it Tyreek, Achane, Waddle, or Beckham. And if there is a coach I have confidence in getting the ball to his playmakers, it’s Mike McDaniel, a football genius. Quarterback QB TUA TAGOVAILOA – QUALITY BACKUP The issue with Tua Tagovailoa was never talent, but health. He finally played a full season and dwarfed his previous career-best totals. PFF graded Tagovailoa as their top passer last season after he threw for 4,624 yards and 29 scores. But most of that production occurred in Weeks 1-8. In the second half of the season, Tagovailoa averaged just 240.7 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game down the stretch. The Dolphins added even more speed to their already impressive arsenal, so there is hope he can sustain those early numbers for a full slate. He offers nothing as a runner but Tagovailoa will contend for QB1 numbers as a pure passer in a high-octane offense. ADVICE: Solid starter with QB1 upside Running Backs RB DE’VON ACHANE – SOLID/SAFE PICK Achane burst onto the scene as a rookie, leading the NFL in breakaway rate, second in yards after contact per attempt, fourth in fantasy points per game, and averaging an insane 7.8 yards per carry. All of that came on 107 carries- which is the only issue. Raheem Mostert is back and the Dolphins added speedster Jaylen Wright to the mix. Achane was given double-digit carries just five times but averaged 27.4 fantasy points per game in those contests. We often see running backs break out in their second year. Achane has top 5 upside, with usage being the only concern. ADVICE: League-winning upside RB RAHEEM MOSTERT – SOLID/SAFE PICK Drafted as a middling flex option last summer, Raheem Mostert became a fantasy league-winner with his NFL-leading 21 touchdowns in Miami’s top-ranked offense. Mostert thrived in the red zone, out-carrying De’Von Achane inside the five-yard line 20-5. But he wasn’t a one-trick pony. Mostert was also top 10 in yards after contact and missed tackles forced. He’s 32 but has plenty of tread left on the tires. Achane and Jaylen Wright make it a crowded backfield, but Miami will live in the red zone, and Mostert’s short-yardage role puts him in a good position to contend for strong RB2 numbers at a discounted price. ADVICE: Don’t Count on 21 TDs but Mostert is still a high-value pick. RB JAYLEN WRIGHT – SUPER SLEEPER (HIGH RISK/POTENTIAL) Josh McDaniels continues to build his roster like a kid experimenting with the fastest possible players on Madden GM mode. Wright rushed for over 1,000 yards and Tennessee while ranking ninth in yards after contact per attempt (4.35) and posting a top-15 PFF Elusive Rating. Wright also fared well as a receiver. But he will have a difficult time competing for touches behind the explosive De’Von Ahcane and Raheem Mostert. However, the skill set is a great fit for McDaniels and makes Wright one of the top late-round stash-and-cash options in drafts. ADVICE: Intriguing skill set to target in the final rounds of drafts, with RB2 upside if the Dolphins have an injury Wide Receivers WR TYREEK HILL – STUD (LOW RISK) Despite missing a game, Hill led the league in receiving yards (1,799), touchdown receptions (13), yards per route run (3.82), and average depth or target (11.3). Hill had a career-high 171 targets and 119 receptions in Miami’s top-ranked offense. Now 30, Hill has shown no signs of slowing down and has the best Vegas odds to lead the league in yards once again. He remains the NFL’s most potent deep threat and is one of the most consistent (WR 1/2 in 12-of-16 games) and prolific wideouts in the league. Hill should be the No. 1 wideout selected in every draft and should not fall out
2024 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview
2024 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview The Bills still have one of the top QBs in the NFL, Josh Allen. However, this offense will look much different without Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Allen was the top quarterback in fantasy football last year, so expectations remain high despite the wholesale changes in the passing attack. Will free-agent acquisitions Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins, along with second-round draft pick Keon Coleman be enough to give the Bills the same firepower in the passing game this year? Time will tell. Buffalo did hang on to Khalil Shakir and spoke glowingly about his potential and new role. Plus, the franchise signed Chase Claypool to a one-year deal, which should help the receiver room. Buffalo has two very talented tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Knox opened 2023 as the starter but a wrist injury opened the door for Kincaid to become a pivotal piece of the offense. Kincaid ended the season as the TE11 after tallying 73 receptions (80.2% catch rate) for 673 yards and two TDs. Absent Diggs and Davis, Kincaid could be Josh Allen’s go-to option in 2024. Despite the loss of two critical weapons, many pundits still think the Bills have a shot at a Super Bowl appearance in 2024 under Sean McDermott. “Look around the league,” said Rich Gannon. “They have a top-five situation. They have an outstanding quarterback and a terrific football coach. It’s rare to have both in the same city.” Fortunately for Buffalo, Josh Allen isn’t the only one who balled out last year. RB James Cook eclipsed 1,100 rushing yards and averaged 4.7 yards per tote. He totaled 1,567 scrimmage yards but only found the end zone as a runner twice. However, he made up for that in the passing game. The youngster hauled in 44-of-54 targets for 445 receiving yards and an additional four touchdowns. Although the Bills drafted RB Ray Davis out of Kentucky with their fourth-round selection, Cook doesn’t have a lot of competition in the backfield. Cook will likely see 250+ touches in 2024 as the Bills will rely more on the running game. However, Josh Allen could easily vulture some touchdowns near the goal line. Still, Cook should wrack up a ton of yardage and it’s fair to expect positive regression to the mean in terms of touchdown output. Outside of Allen, Cook is the team’s most intriguing player from a fantasy perspective. Quarterback QB JOSH ALLEN – STUD (LOW RISK) Although he failed to throw for 30 touchdowns for the first time in four years, Josh Allen’s career-best 15 rushing scores helped lead him to another overall QB1 finish. Adversity is at hand in 2024, with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis gone. Second-round rookie WR Keon Coleman joins Curtis Samuel and standout TE Dalton Kincaid in a new-look offense, Meanwhile, the Bills fortified what was already a strength by selecting three offensive linemen in this year’s draft. That hints at a more run-based approach. That would suit Allen fine. Since entering the league he’s averaged 601 yards and 8.8 scores on the ground each season. ADVICE: QB1 In all formats Running Backs RB JAMES COOK – SOLID/SAFE PICK Cook saw a big boost in touches and playing time after the Bills brought in Joe Brady to run the offense. From Week 10 on, Cook averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game, including the playoffs. He really shined as a receiver, ranking eighth overall with 445 receiving yards and four scores. However, Cook had a whopping seven dropped passes and four fumbles and he has only rushed for two touchdowns in each of his two seasons. Additionally, the Bills invested a fourth-round pick Kentucky RB Ray Davis, who catches the ball well and can contribute in short yardage. ADVICE: Still on the RB1 radar but with some risk RB RAY DAVIS – FANTASY HANDCUFF ADVICE: Davis has the size to factor in on early downs and in short yardage right away. Buffalo had 21 RB carries inside the 5-yard line last season and James Cook only commanded five of those. Excellent late-round sleeper with RB2 value if Cook misses time. Wide Receivers WR CURTIS SAMUEL – BYE WEEK FILL-IN Curtis Samuel has been remarkably consistent, posting WR44 and WR48 overall numbers in his final two seasons in Washington. Samuel ran the 12th-highest slot rate (68.7%) last season but with Khalil Shakir expected to take the majority of inside reps, Samuel will be thrust into perimeter duties. That’s a questionable role for a player who ranked 93rd in ADOT and 91st in yards per catch. The upgrade at quarterback potentially helps, but Samuel’s fantasy prospects would improve if he were utilized closer to the line of scrimmage. It remains to be seen how the Bills will employ their new addition. ADVICE: Middling WR4 with some modes value if he becomes Buffalo’s slot receiver WR KHALIL SHAKIR – SLEEPER (UNDERVALUED) Khalil Shakir made big strides in his second season, with a pair of 100-yard games. Shakir took on a larger role in the final month of the season, averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game in Buffalo’s final five contests (including playoffs). Josh Allen showed a real connection with his young receiver, boasting a league-best 95.6% catchable target rate and 133.6 QB Rating when targeting Shakir. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, Shakir has a clear path to slot duties and a big boost in opportunities in his pivotal third season. Shakir is a popular late-round sleeper with WR3 upside. ADVICE: Shakir is one of the top late-round sleepers to target in 2024 fantasy drafts. WR KEON COLEMAN – SUPER SLEEPER (HIGH RISK/POTENTIAL) Buffalo’s staff was enamored with Keon Coleman throughout the draft process and got their man the opening pick of Round 2. Coleman (6-3, 213) has excellent size, slot/perimeter versatility, and is an outstanding athlete who has the frame to be a potent red-zone weapon. And the Bills are counting on Coleman to be a significant part of their offense right away. After trading away Stefon
NFL Coaching Carousel
After only five franchises hired new head coaches in 2023, eight clubs entered the 2024 season with a different man at the helm. Some of these changes were expected, while others were more surprising. That includes the New England Patriots breaking in a new sideline leader for the first time since the 2000 season. FullTime Fantasy‘s NFL Coaching Carousel catches you up on the fantasy impact of these head coaching changes. Additionally, other teams retained their head coach but hired new offensive coordinators. All of these changes can have serious ramifications on a team’s philosophy and fantasy appeal. The well-prepared fantasy manager needs to know how these new hires will impact players this season. Here are the notable new hires and how they will affect fantasy football in 2024. Atlanta Falcons Incoming: Raheem Morris Outgoing: Arthur Smith For fantasy fans, the dismissal of Arthur Smith was met with overwhelming support. Despite spending three top-10 draft picks on skill position players, Smith refused to feature those assets in any credible manner. Subsequently, the Falcons finished below average in offense in each of Smith’s three seasons. After sacking Smith, GM Terry Fontenot looked to the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons had two interviews with Bill Belichick but ultimately brought back Raheem Morris to turn things around. Morris previously served as Atlanta’s defensive coordinator and led the team to a 4-7 record as interim head coach in 2020. Morris was also the head coach in Tampa from 2009-11. He has plenty of experience and is a well-respected defensive schemer and leader. From 2021-23, Morris led a Los Angeles Rams defense that finished inside the top 10 twice and won Super Bowl LVI. In Atlanta, his No. 1 job will be to revitalize an offense that underperformed. Last season, poor quarterback play doomed the Falcons. Atlanta finished 26th in scoring and had 28 turnovers. Their (-12) turnover ratio was the second-worst in the league. Additionally, Desmond Ridder took far too many sacks behind a stellar offensive line that boasted PFF’s fourth-highest pass-blocking grade. The arrival of Kirk Cousins will make Morris’s top priority much easier. Cousins has averaged over 4,200 passing yards and 32 touchdowns per season since he became a starter. Emphasizing the available skill position talent will go a long way. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson spent three seasons with Morris in LA. Robinson’s offense was top-10 in time of possession, yards per game, and scoring in 2023. His philosophy of pushing the ball downfield should do wonders for underutilized pass catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts. And if Bijan Robinson is utilized similarly to Kyren Williams, Bijan will contend for overall RB1 numbers. Carolina Panthers Incoming: Dave Canales Outgoing: Frank Reich It’s a complete overhaul for one of the NFL’s most dysfunctional franchises. Dan Morgan was promoted to president of football operations and GM. His first job was to find the right fit to patrol the sidelines after Frank Reich’s disastrous 1-10 stint that lasted less than one year. Enter Dave Canales, who had one season as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator. Before that, Canales spent 13 seasons in Seattle coaching wide receivers, quarterbacks, and acting as the passing game coordinator. Bryce Young was abysmal as a rookie. Carolina was last in the league in total offense, yards per play, and ranked 31st in scoring. Canales’s experience with Russell Wilson and resurrecting Geno Smith’s career will play a big role in turning that around. The club did invest heavily in weapons to improve that lackluster showing. They added target magnet Diontae Johnson from Pittsburgh and traded up into Round One of this year’s draft to select South Carolina WR Xavier Leggette. A pair of Longhorns (RB) Jonathon Brooks and TE JaTavion Sanders) also boosted the supporting cast considerably. In Tampa, Canales liked to feature his top two wideouts downfield. 48.7% of the Bucaneers’ targets went to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Meanwhile, RB Rachaad White ranked ninth at running back with 70 targets. If that philosophy carries over, Leggette and Johnson should be busy from the perimeter, with Adam Thielen seeing fewer looks. Brooks stood out as a receiver in Austin and is the favorite to emerge as the team’s lead back. After all, this staff chose him as the top back in this draft Las Vegas Raiders Incoming: Antonio Pierce Outgoing: Josh McDaniels The Raiders averaged 268.2 yards per game with 16 turnovers in eight games with Josh McDaniels. After McDaneils was jettisoned, Antonio Pierce led the Raiders to a 5-4 finish and won over the locker room. Under Pierce, Las Vegas jumped up to 308.4 yards per game and had no turnovers in six of those contests. Vegas also had no games with 100 rushing yards under McDaniels but eclipsed that mark six times under Pierce. That improvement resulted in Pierce being hired as the full-time head coach in January. A former standout linebacker with the Giants, Pierce brings credibility along with a tough, defensive-minded approach. His teams will try to run the ball to establish the pass while winning the turnover battle. The priority for the Raiders is to find the right quarterback. Aidan O’Connell went 5-5 as the starter but had his share of rookie moments. The club signed Garnder Minshew to a two-year $25 million deal. Minshew nearly led the Colts to an AFC South title after taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson. Along with Pierce, Mark Davis hired Tom Telesco as GM and Luke Getsy as offensive coordinator. In two seasons as Chicago’s offensive coordinator, Getsy guided the Bears to first and second in rushing. Granted, much of that was from the quarterback position, but Getsy and Pierce will rely on the rushing attack behind a solid Raiders’ offensive line. Zamir White will take over for the departed Josh Jacobs. White carried many fantasy managers to a tile last winter, posting overall RB12 numbers in the final four weeks. Alexander Mattison was signed to add depth but White will be given every opportunity to retain
Fantasy Baseball Pitching Strategy
Fantasy Baseball Pitching Strategy Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well
Fantasy Baseball Pitching Strategy
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Fantasy Baseball Pitching Strategy and insight are courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This Fantasy Baseball Pitching Strategy is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
Also, check out Shawn’s detailed 2024 Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide and Auction Strategy for the most thorough tips and advice that you will find anywhere.
Dealing Aces
The fantasy world is an ever-changing market. More information and tools help drafters make better-educated decisions each year. When I first came to the high-stakes market in 2004, I sat in my seat and took the player I thought was the most valuable to my team at that time. It was the purest time in fantasy baseball. It was about understanding the player pool and having vision within the draft. The better I see the future, the better I predict draft flow and future opportunities.
Early Days of Fantasy Baseball
As each year passes, fantasy managers have more information to help them become better players. After the first year in the high-stakes market, winning results and the final category totals helped fantasy teams better prepare for future years. In addition, these pieces of information helped drafters plan their strategy for the following year.
As the high-stakes fantasy market grew, fantasy managers had more draft results to help them make educated decisions within the draft. The draft flow was a significant part of data for fantasy managers who had the foresight to see the critical components for their team development while understanding how they wanted to build their teams.
This next tool of information was called ADPs (average draft position). Of course, each draft will be different, but fantasy managers now know how other drafters feel about the player pool.
There was always an information edge in the early days of fantasy baseball. In the home leagues, there were fantasy managers who were more informed than their competition. The more knowledge a drafter had, the bigger the edge over their competition.
The most challenging part of fantasy baseball is pitching. A fantasy manager with a complete understanding of the pitching inventory had an advantage at the draft table. The knowledge imbalance between drafters created strategies like the LIMA plan, formulated by Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ.
The term LIMA means Low Investment Mound Aces. By understanding the pitching inventory, a fantasy manager had the opportunity to buy his pitching staff at lower prices. Sometimes, a knowledgeable drafter could find an ace for the small investment of $1 in auction leagues.
From a fantasy perspective, the LIMA plan is a great tool. It is a theory that fantasy teams must embrace to succeed in this game. The goal is always trying to find top talent at a discount. Most early fantasy baseball games were American or National auction leagues, which stressed the importance of finding good players at low prices.
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Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy
Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy and insight are courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. This Fantasy Baseball Auction Strategy is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack. Also, check out Shawn’s detailed 2024 Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide for the most thorough tips and advice that you will find anywhere. Auction Overview The fantasy baseball market has many formats and league sizes, especially in auctions. I’ve played in American and National League formats with 12 teams plus 15-team mixed leagues. Each setup could also have keepers (players held for more than one year) or trading, which changes all players’ value during the auction. Over the last 20+ seasons, I’ve played in the high-stakes fantasy market where there is no trading, which puts pressure on a fantasy manager to develop a winning plan before the auction. When doing an auction league with no trading, a fantasy manager has a small margin for error. No other team will be knocking on your door looking to take your third closer off your hands via a trade. If your roster is out of balance (strong in some categories and weak in others), you can’t trade hitting for pitching or even speed for saves. An auction can be won in many different ways, but many managers can lose the battle during the auction due to a questionable game plan or even a lack of foresight. Every year, the player pool will change slightly. The goal of a manager is to evaluate the inventory and develop a strategy that can be executed at the draft table. If I come away with enough pieces to the puzzle, I can manage my way to a championship. Whatever game plan I decide to use, I must be ready to adjust if I don’t get my key players. A fantasy manager can roster any player they want in an auction, but it comes with a price. In most baseball auction leagues, each team starts with $260 to buy 14 hitters and nine pitchers. The goal is to accumulate the most league points in five hitting (batting average, runs, home runs, RBIs, and steals) and five pitching (wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and saves) categories. In a 12-team league, a first-place finish in a category would be worth 12 points, second place is 11 points, and so on until reaching 12th place (one point). The winner of each league is determined by adding up all 10 categories. Calling Out Players to Improve Your Team-Building Chances A common mistake fantasy managers make is hoping the players they want don’t get called out early. It sounds good in principle, but the problem is that all the other good players are coming off the board while I sit back, holding my money. If I wait and miss on my targeted players, I will have fewer options to build my team. Getting my key players called out as quickly as possible is essential. For example, if I want a player in the auction and believe he is the key to building my foundation, I would like to call him out on my first opportunity. By doing this, I find out how much he will cost (higher or lower than my predicted price point) or if I need to start looking for someone else to develop my team around. The quicker I know where I stand on critical players, the better my chance of executing my plan or adjusting on the fly. For example, I wanted to build my team around Ronald Acuna, and I believed he could repeat a good portion of his 2023 stats (.337/149/41/106/73) with a target value of $55. If I miss on him, I will need to find another player with a step down in overall expectations. I should have a secondary plan to shift to another player with a similar skill set with less upside, but I would then save some of my spending budget. In this example, my next tier for power and speed could be Julio Rodriguez. If Acuna gets called out early and sells for more than I’m willing to pay, Rodriguez would be attainable if his salary falls within my expected budget and his targeted salary. Suppose Rodriguez gets called out first, and someone buys him for $41 while I sit on Acuna as my first key player. In that case, I will have a further drop-off in the player pool if Acuna is purchased by another manager above my budgeted salary target. The situation worsens if many top players get called out before Acuna, forcing me to shove all in, no matter the cost, or revamp the foundation of my build on the fly. This freelancing style could lead to an imbalance in roster construction in a non-trading format where a trade can’t fix a shortfall in a category. In this example, a detour off of Acuna may push me to Freddie Freeman, putting me in a weaker position in speed but a potentially high floor and ceiling in batting average. This decision would force me to find stolen bases differently and potentially look for another source of high-end power. If the drop-off from Acuna led me to Bobby Witt, I would set a high foundation in steals with 30+ home run power but only a neutral option for batting average. I would then focus on landing another high-average bat with one of my next two core hitters. Again,