Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 1

The long wait is over! Another fantastic fantasy football season has arrived. While that means all is good, many early drafters already need to explore FullTime‘s Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 1. Whether you drafted Jonathan Taylor, had some unfortunate injuries, or are just looking for depth, being proactive even before the season begins is a great way to increase your odds of winning. Also, it can give you a leg up on your opponent. However, be cautious with your FAAB spending this early. The championship is 17 weeks away. Be proactive, but also budget wisely. Here are the top fantasy football waiver wire: Week 1 players to target. FAAB denotes Free Agent Acquisition Budget Deon Jackson (RB) Indianapolis Colts (10 % FAAB) – It’s a new regime in Indy so there’s no guarantee that Jackson will be used in the same way he was last year when Jonathan Taylor was absent. However, sans Taylor and Zack Moss, there is a good chance Jackson will see double-digit touches against Jacksonville. In the four games Jackson surpassed 10 touches in a game last season, he averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game. Raheem Mostert (RB) Miami Dolphins (10% FAAB) – With Jeff Wilson on IR, Mostert and De’Von Achane (10% FAAB) will lead Miami’s backfield for at least the first four weeks of the season. Mostert quietly posted RB26 numbers last season and should get the most touches against the Chargers. Achane is the upside play and offers the most long-term potential. Marvin Mims (WR) Denver Broncos (10% FAAB) – The analytics crowd has been on Mims all offseason. However, his ADP remained well outside the top 150. That all changed when Jerry Jeudy went down. Mims has now screamed up draft boards. He’ll open the season in the starting lineup against a vulnerable Raiders’ secondary. Mims will remain in three-wide sets. He’s got a clear path to top 50 numbers. Marvin Mims is going to open the season as a starter for Denver after a rocky offseason for that position group. There’s a chance if he develops, he ends it established as the best WR on the roster. Some #ReceptionPerception positive Indicators on Mims… – 72.2% success rate… pic.twitter.com/VEmb6BdZQB — Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 28, 2023 Kenneth Gainwell (RB) Philadelphia Eagles (8% FAAB) – I like all of Philadelphia’s backs at cost. However, Gainwell has the lowest ADP of the trio. Plus, he was receiving plenty of first-team reps all preseason. I’m not sure I buy into the RB1 rumors. After all, the Eagles will rotate all three backs and have Jalen Hurts dominating goal-line looks. However, Gainwell largely went un-drafted early on and has proven to be a reliable pass-catching weapon. My numbers still project D’Andre Swift to lead this backfield. But Gainwell is a priority add in free agency. Nico Collins (WR) Houston Texans (6% FAAB) – Collins quietly was targeted at an impressive rate last season. And that has only multiplied with Houston’s new regime. C.J. Stroud proved to be very accurate all summer and Collins was unquestionably Stroud’s primary read. Collins should contend for top-40 fantasy numbers and is still widely available in many leagues. Brock Purdy (QB) San Francisco 49ers (5% FAAB) – After trading Trey Lance to Dallas, there is zero doubt of who San Francisco’s starter is. Also, Purdy is fully healthy and will open the season in Pittsburgh against a Steelers’ secondary that ceded the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks a year ago. Including the postseason, Purdy posted top-10 fantasy numbers in his last five starts of 2023. A top-15 season is in play. Deuce Vaughn (RB) Dallas Cowboys (5% FAAB) – Most people draft in August, so Vaughn’s breakout summer likely means he was selected. However, Vaughn might have gone undrafted in early leagues. The Cowboys manufactured touches for the diminutive Vaughn and he delivered throughout the preseason. Dallas has shown a penchant for using multiple backs. If the continues, Vaughn has a chance to play his way into the flex conversation in larger leagues. At the very least, he is a desirable hand-cuff pick for Tony Pollard managers. Sam Howell (QB) Washington Commanders (4% FAAB) – Howell looked good this preseason and has some intriguing weapons in place. Even better, he’ll open the season at home against a horrid Arizona club that looks like they won’t be able to sustain drives or stop anybody. Howell has solid streaming value in the opener. Hunter Henry (TE) New England Patriots (4% FAAB) – With Bill O’Brien back as the play-callers, it is thought that the wide receiver-thin Patriots will employ a two-tight end offense. This could be similar to the strategy that O’Brien championed in his first run as the club’s offensive coordinator. Henry will fill the Rob Gronkowski role in that scenario. Also, Henry has flashed good chemistry with QB Mac Jones all summer. With his solid red-zone skills, Henry could compete for TE1 numbers. Noah Fant (TE) Seattle Seahawks (3% FAAB) – Fant was TE17 last season but is almost completely being ignored on draft day. Granted, the arrival of Jaxon Smith-Njigba is playing a large role in that. However, Fant’s role should remain largely unchanged. He might not see a steep decline in the 63 targets he earned in 2022. Isaiah Hodgins (WR) New York Giants (3% FAAB) – Handicapping the Giants’ receiving corps is tricky. Also, the Giants ranked just 26th in passing last season. Hodgins is currently the club’s No. 1 wideout. Along with teammate Darius Slayton (1% FAAB), Hodgins is worth a speculative bid to see how things shake out in New York. Romeo Doubs (WR) Green Bay Packers (3% FAAB) – Although he’s dealing with a hamstring injury, Doubs boasted a 12% target share from Jordan Love in the preseason. Of course, we’ll have to monitor the injury report for the season opener. However, even if Doubs is limited against the Bears, he should be rostered in most formats. My projections are favorable for Green Bay in 2023. That’s why

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Commanders – 7 Over/Under: 39.0 The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is

NFL Week 1 Cardinals at Commanders: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Commanders – 7

Over/Under: 39.0

The Cardinals are the favorites to finish last in the NFL in wins based on their over/under betting line (3.5). Kyler Murray is on the PUP list with no clear timetable to return to the starting lineup. Incoming rookie Clayton Tune looks poised to start in Week 1 after getting drafted in the fifth round this year. James Conner is the lead back with minimal competition for snaps. Zack Ertz is trending toward a sit in Week 1. Arizona will feature Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore in the passing game. They hope Michael Wilson can handle their WR3 role at some point in the season.

Washington has a top defense with a developing quarterback (Sam Howell) who will be making his second career start. The change at offensive coordinator could lead to a bump in production at running back in the passing game, rewarding Antonio Gibson. Brian Robinson is their power running with the inside track to score in close. A turf toe issue may keep Terry McLaurin on the sideline in Week 1. For now, Jahan Dotson assumes the lead wide receiver role, and Curtis Samuel gets a bump in chances.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).

Arizona Cardinals

Clayton Tune

Clayton Tune was Arizona’s shot at a future quarterback. His mechanics need work to improve his accuracy under duress and on the move. He can read defenses, but his arm doesn’t always have the fire to win in tight coverage.
Over five seasons in college, Tune passed for 11,996 yards with 104 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. He was also active in the run game (412/1,256/15). In his senior year, Tune gained 4,618 combined yards with 45 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His production rushing the ball peaked in 2022 (128/544/2).
I don’t know if he will start with the Cardinals signing Joshua Dobbs and releasing Colt McCoy.
Washington had a league-average defense vs. quarterbacks in 2022 (18.84 FPPG).
Tune has to walk before being considered to start any format. I have a feeling he will make progress as the season moves on if Arizona gives him starting snaps.

James Conner

Conner finished 19th in running back scoring (201.20) in PPR formats while playing in 13 games last season. A rib issue knocked him out for three weeks early in the year, and in Week 18, he had a shin injury.
From Week 10 to Week 17, Conner delivered seven productive games (23.60, 13.40, 22.00, 23.40, 18.10, 25.00, and 14.00 fantasy points). He rushed for more than 100 yards in one matchup (25/120 with three catches for 20 yards and one score).
The Cardinals will give him 15+ touches with some value in catches. The lack of quarterback play is a significant concern for…

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NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5 Over/Under: 41.0 The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5

Over/Under: 41.0

The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting the year third on the depth chart. San Francisco has the best all-around running back (Christian McCaffrey) in the game, with three productive pieces (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle) at receiver. Their star DE Nick Bosa wants a new deal, and he has yet to report to the team. The 49ers need his pass rush (34 sacks over his last 33 games) to maintain their high ranking on defense.

The Steelers struggled to score points (308), with Kenny Pickett assuming the quarterback duties after Ben Roethlisberger retired. The Steelers’ offense has depth at running back (Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren) and the talent to move the ball via the pass with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. The key to all players is increased production by Pickett.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy

Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts at Iowa. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.
Over his eight full starts, Purdy attempted more than 30 passes in only two games (MIA – 37 and @LV – 35). He had a floor of two touchdowns in his first in seven matchups while delivering one impact game (348/4).
His completion rate (67.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) rank highly in the NFL.
Purdy saw his season end in the Super Bowl due to an injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February.
Pittsburgh was about league-average defending quarterbacks (19.59 FPPG) last season, but two offenses posted impact games (32.40 and 32.25). They played without their top pass rusher (T.J. Watt) for seven games.
Despite his success last year, Purdy was a modified game manager. He has to prove his elbow is healthy before riding him in the daily space. The 49ers have plenty of receiving weapons, so I can’t totally write him off in Week 1.

Christian McCaffrey

Over his final nine games with the 49ers, McCaffrey gained 1,066 yards with 10 touchdowns and 39 catches, an average of 18.94 FPPG in PPR formats.
His salary requires 35.00 fantasy points at DraftKings for him to be worth his investment. He posted one impact game (40.60), with three high-floor showings (28.60, 29.30, and 31.30).
Pittsburgh gave up six receiving scores to running back in 2022, but they limited the damage in catches (64) and receiving yards (523). Their defense held backs to 4.2 yards per carry with seven scores on the ground.
McCaffrey isn’t the workhorse he once was with the Panthers, but he will get plenty of chances to make plays. His pass-catching ability set a nice floor while needing multiple scores to pay off his top-tier salary

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NFL Week 1 Jaguars at Colts: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Jaguars at Colts: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Jaguars – 4.5 Over/Under: 45.5 The Jaguars have an ascending offense led by Trevor Lawrence. He had growth in all areas in his sophomore season, but he lacked big plays (only three completions of 40 yards or more). Calvin Ridley looks locked and loaded to have a big year after sitting on the sideline since the fifth week of 2021. Last year, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram had career seasons in their first year with the Jaguars. Travis Etienne looks poised to push higher up the running back rankings, even with Tank Bigsby commanding some touches in his rookie campaign. Indianapolis had a black cloud hanging over their preseason due to Jonathan Taylor wanting to be traded. After placing him on the injured reserve for four games, the Colts lack identity at running back. Anthony Richardson will get plenty of carries in his first NFL start, but can he throw the ball well enough early in his career to deliver wins for Indy? The combination of Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs has an upside feel. The question is whether or not Richardson will attempt more than 30 passes in many games to support his top receivers in the fantasy market. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence Lawrence finished seventh in quarterback scoring (20.83 FPPG) in 2022 while delivering two impact games (37.10 and 32.00) in fantasy points. In two starts vs. the Colts, he gained 432 combined yards with five scores. The addition of Calvin Ridley gives a higher chance of delivering passing touchdowns and adding length to his yards per pass attempt (7.0 in 2022 and 6.0 in 2021). Lawrence adds value to his stat line by running the ball (73/334/2 and 62/291/5). Indy allowed 25 passing touchdowns last year with 10 interceptions and 44 sacks. I don’t see this game turning into a shootout due to the Colts’ lack of an explosive passing quarterback. Lawrence has the tools to shine, and he may hit on a 50+ yard touchdown in this matchup. His salary requires at least 25.00 fantasy points to be viable. I expect Lawrence to finish close to this number in Week 1. Travis Etienne The Jaguars ran the ball 32.3 times a game in the preseason, leading to 420 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Etienne rushed for more than 100 yards in six games last year (including in the playoffs). He scored over 20.00 fantasy points in only three games (25.20, 26.60, and 23.00). Jacksonville gave him 20+ touches in five matchups. He finished 17th in running back scoring (208.10) despite a slow start over his first four games (34/144 and 8/81), while James Robinson (51/230/3 with 6/33/1) played well over the first three weeks. The Jaguars will rotate in a second back, leading to Etienne seeing about 60% of the team’s snaps. To reach a winning score in more weeks, Etienne must score more often and be more active in the passing game. Not ideal for Week 1, but he has the wheels to hit on a long TD, keeping in the explosive mix. Tank Bigsby Over his last 25 games at Auburn, Bigsby rushes for 2,069 yards and 20 touches on 402 carries while chipping in the passing game (51/364 on 76 targets). He ranked third in the preseason in rushing yards (159) on 28 carries. Bigsby didn’t score while losing one ball at the goal line. I get the buzz in the preseason, but Etienne is the dynamic back in this offense. He is overpriced in Week 1 for his expected opportunity. Calvin Ridley Over the summer, Ridley flashed speed and quickness in training camp while offering elite route running. He continues to shoot up draft boards, and I support his movement. When at his best in 2020 (90/1,374/9 on 143 targets), Ridley was the fifth highest scoring wideout (283.90). He gained more than 100 yards in eight games (9/130/2, 7/109/2, 5/110, 8/136, 5/108, 8/124/1, 10/163/1, and 5/130). The Jaguars’ wide receiver had 238 catches for 2,670 yards and 19 touchdowns on 369 targets last year. The addition of Ridley will undoubtedly push them higher in all categories in 2023. Based on his salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, Ridley should glow like a beacon in the night. Ridley needs a 7/100/1 game to place him in the money in the DFS market. His one negative is the Jaguars may not need to throw the ball much in the second half. Read more about the FullTime Fantasy’s staff feelings about Calvin Ridley in 2023 here. Christian Kirk Kirk set career highs in catches (84), receiving yards (1,108), touchdowns (8), and targets (133) in his first year with the Jaguars. Unfortunately, Ridley is now the true WR1 for Jacksonville. On the positive side, Kirk will see weaker coverage. He gained over 100 yards in three games (6/117, 9/105/2, and 6/104/1) in 2022 with three other 20+ fantasy weeks (6/78/2, 8/76/1, and 6/99/1) in PPR formats. Kirk only had 11 targets in his two games (6/78/2 and 4/24/1) vs. the Colts. With Ridley expected to be popular in the DFS market in Week 1, Kirk could be the against-the-grain play. His salary requires about 22.00 fantasy points to be an option. Zay Jones Jones outperformed expectations in 2022 (82/823/5 on 121 targets) while working close to the line of scrimmage (10.0 yards per catch). He posted two impact games (11/145 and 6/109/3) plus three competitive

NFL Week 1 Texans at Ravens: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Texans at Ravens: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Ravens – 9.5 Over/Under: 44.0 Baltimore has a primo matchup for their offense in Week 1, and Lamar Jackson has a much better receiving corps heading into 2023. Zay Flower has been getting plenty of hype in training camp for his speed and quickness, and Rashod Bateman looks ready to shine out of the gate. The Ravens have a stud tight end (Mark Andrews) with plenty of firepower at the position off the bench. Baltimore will run the ball a lot against Houston’s run defense, which ranked poorly in 2022. The Texans stroll into this matchup with a high-upside rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud). They upgraded their tight end position in the offseason by signing Dalton Schultz. Houston has a young group of wideouts – Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and John Metchie that will give defenses fits as the season progresses. With Baltimore expected to have success scoring, the Texans will have to air the ball out to stay in the game. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Houston Texans C.J. Stroud Stroud makes his first start in the NFL vs. Ravens defense that ranked 26th in passing yards allowed while minimizing the damage in passing TDs (20). Baltimore did get after the quarterback (48 sacks) in 2022. Over his final 25 starts at Ohio State, Stroud threw 85 touchdown passes with only 12 interceptions. He offered minimal value in the run game. Houston has some intriguing young wide receivers that should help move the chains. Baltimore had a top-tier run defense last year, pointing to the Texans needing to finish drives with passing touchdowns in the red zone. I don’t see a difference-maker gain by Stroud. He needs about 250 passing yards and three scores to pay off. I expect him to be on a low percentage of rosters, making him worth a dart or two. Dameon Pierce Pierce played well in his rookie season (220/939/4 with 30 catches for 165 yards and one touchdown), but he was worthless in the fantasy market after Week 10 (55/167/1 with eight catches for 39 yards) while missing the final four games with an ankle injury. His pass-protecting skills are below par, pointing to Pierce standing on the sideline on passing downs. Houston will rotate in a second back, limiting the ceiling of Pierce. A top run defense should limit his scoring upside. Pierce almost needs 100 yards rushing and two scores to pay off. I have him in my fade column in the DFS market in Week 1 Devin Singletary Most Dameon Pierce supporters don’t respect Singletary. He’s gained over 1,000 combined yards in back-to-back seasons with the high-scoring Bills. Singletary averaged 38.7 catches over the past three seasons with some value in scoring (14 combined touchdowns in 2021 and 2022). Game flow may favor him in this matchup. He scored over 18.00 fantasy points in PPR formats twice last season. Nice Collins In the early draft season, Collins ranked 54th at wide receiver, translating to just over 7.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues last year. He has three career scores over his 24 games with Houston while averaging 2.9 catches for 39 yards. Last year, Collins scored more than 15.00 fantasy points in one game (5/49/1). His size (6’4” and 215 lbs.) gives Stroud a big target at the goal line, and Collins worked more as a big play receiver (17.8 yards per catch) in college. He needs the best game of his career to be winning play. I’ll pass due to Houston expected to rotate in four wideouts plus service Dalton Schultz with targets at tight end. Robert Woods Veteran wide receiver with an excellent three-year run with the Rams from 2018 to 2020 (86/1,219/6, 90/1,134/2, and 90/936/6). Wood also had success rushing the ball (266/3,289/14) over this span. A torn ACL cost him eight games in 2021, followed by a quiet year with the Titans (53/527/2). At age 31, his best days are behind him. Woods has the resume and experience to post a 5/50/1 game that works for his Week 1 salary. More of a gamble than a winning play in the DFS market. John Metchie The Texans drafted Metchie in the second round in 2022, but he missed all of last season with a battle with promyelocytic leukemia. The year off did help him recover from a torn ACL with Alabama. In his best season in college, Metchie caught 96 balls for 1,142 yards and eight scores on 133 targets. His stock should rise as the second moves on, but without a starting job, he would only be a flier in the DFS market. Tank Dell Dell was a beast over his final two seasons (90/1,329/12 and 109/1,398/17) at Houston. His skill set and quickness point to a slot role with the Texans in his rookie year. Dell is undersized (5’8” and 165 lbs.), but he looks ready to handle the next step in his career. Dell had a 5/65/1 game in the preseason before being limited with a slight hamstring issue. For someone looking for a $3,000 salary savior at DraftKings, he should have the opportunity to be a winning play based on game flow. Dalton Schultz Schultz blossomed into a top-12 tight end over the past three seasons at Dallas (63/615/4, 78/808/8, and 57/577/5). The Texans’ tight ends had 77 catches for 959 yards and eight touchdowns on 130 targets in 2022. Schultz scored 19.00 fantasy points or more in three (19.10, 24.60,

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Saints – 3 Over/Under: 41.5 After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored).

NFL Week 1 Titans at Saints: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Saints – 3

Over/Under: 41.5

After making the postseason from 2019 to 2021 with a 32-17 record, Tennessee lost its offensive prowess last season (28th in points scored). The Titans have a better foundation for their passing attack by signing DeAndre Hopkins. Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Ryan Tannehill the tools to have a rebound in his passing stats. Derrick Henry remains a beast, and Tennessee looks to have hit on an upside back running back option (Tyjae Spears) in this year’s draft class.

New Orleans will have the best overall offense in the NFC South if Michael Thomas regains his previous form and stays healthy all season. Derek Carr has sneaky upside, thanks to Chris Olave and the potential growth by A.T. Perry. There have been positive reports about the play of Juwan Johnson in training camp. The combination of Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Williams points to solid production on the ground.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill comes off down seasons (2,536/13) while missing five games with an ankle injury. He averaged only 27.1 pass attempts.
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins gives him a trusted WR1 with change-mover ability and scoring upside.
The Titans still want to run the ball and play good defense, but teams will have success passing the ball against them. If Tennessee falls behind early, they will be forced to move the ball via the pass.
New Orleans had the second-best pass defense (3,413/7 with 48 sacks) in the league.
Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo give Tannehill big-play threats.
I’m in the camp that this matchup could be higher scoring than expected, giving Tannehill a chance to pay off handsomely in the DFS market. He’s far from a lock, but ownership should be an edge if his ticket comes in.

Derrick Henry

Over his last 40 games, Henry averaged 129.2 yards, 1.1 touches, and 1.75 catches on 25.4 touches (21.27 FPPG in PPR formats).
His yards per carry (4.3 and 4.4) came in well below 2019 (5.1) and 2020 (5.4) due to a step back in play by his offensive line and fewer threats in the passing game.
The Titans will get Tyjae Spears involved in some way, but I don’t expect him to be a significant factor in Henry’s role in this matchup.
New Orleans had a sharp regression in their play defending the run in 2022 (4.5 yards per carry, leading to 2,218 yards and 14 touchdowns). Offenses ran the ball 28.9 times a game against them.
Henry won’t catch many balls, so he needs multiple scores of a long run to post a winning score for his salary.

DeAndre Hopkins…

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NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Vikings – 6 Over/Under: 45.5 The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has

NFL Week 1 Buccaneers at Vikings: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Vikings – 6

Over/Under: 45.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has a 31-38 record while gaining only 6.8 yards per pass attempt in his career. Last year, Tampa threw the ball 751 times but allowed only 22 sacks. Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly was the most significant factor, not the offensive line. The Bucs will throw the ball a lot less in 2023, with a spike in sacks and bad passing plays. Mike Evans hopes to extend his streak of at least 1,000 receiving yards to 10 seasons. Tampa hopes Rachaad White can make more explosive plays in his second year with the Bucs. Chirs Godwin capitalized on his time with Brady, leading to 202 catches for 2,126 yards and eight touchdowns over the past two years.

Minnesota had the best wide receiver (Justin Jefferson) in the land, based on fantasy ADPs all summer. The Vikings want to attack via the pass, and they added another dynamic wideout (Jordan Addison) in this draft class. The running back position is in transition, but Minnesota hopes Alexander Mattison can carry the RB1 load. T.J. Hockenson played the best ball of his career after arriving midseason to the Vikings. K.J. Osborn gives Kirk Cousins another dependable receiver to move the ball.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

Over his last 18 starts. Mayfield passed for more than 235 yards in one game (11/28/2021 – 247/1). He has 18 touchdowns over this span when starting, with 18 interceptions and 57 sacks (525 pass attempts – 10.9%). Tom Brady threw the ball 1,452 times in 2021 and 2022, but he only was sacked 44 times (2.9%). The bottom line with this rant is that the Vikings could be a gold mine in Week 1 despite their poor outlook.
The Vikings had the fifth-worst pass defense (22.02 FPPG), with nine teams passing for 300 yards (333/1, 418/2, 326/3, 330/1, 301/2, 382/2, 369/0, 330/3, and 334/1). Their defense finished with 35 sacks.
Compared to 2022, the Vikings’ defense should be better in the secondary if Lewis Cine seizes a starting job and one of their young cornerbacks steps up to handle a starting gig. I see a below-par defensive line with three assets on the first two levels of their defense – Marcus Davenport, Danielle Hunter, and Jordan Hicks.
As much as I expect Mayfield to fail over the long haul in 2023, Tampa will chase on the scoreboard, and he does have two proven wide receivers and a pass-catching running back.

Rachaad White

The Bucs’ running backs had 338 catches for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns on 286 targets over the past two seasons. Again, their success was tied to Brady dumping the ball off and the elite number of pass attempts by Tampa Bay.
White ranked 35th in running back scoring (142.10) in PPR leagues, gaining 3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch. He did secure 50 of his 58 targets.
Running backs had 90 catches for 667 yards and four touchdowns on 115 targets against Minnesota in 2022.
Game flow should favor him in the passing game, and his salary is low enough that a touchdown added to his expected…

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NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Bengals – 2 Over/Under: 47.5 The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023

NFL Week 1 Bengals at Browns: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: Bengals – 2

Over/Under: 47.5

The Bengals have an elite quarterback (Joe Burrow) supported by two high-ceiling wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). Their quest heading into 2023 is a return to the Super Bowl while bringing home a championship to their fans. In the offseason, Cincinnati tried to upgrade their tight end position (Irv Smith). To continue their rise in the AFC, their defense must stop offenses in the most critical part of the game – the fourth quarter.

It’s showtime for Deshaun Watson after the Browns paid him $230 million in 2022. Cleveland has a stud running back with Nick Chubb, with improving depth and upside at wide receiver – Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman, and David Bell. In addition, the Browns have a developing tight end (David Njoku).

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow

Last year, Burrow scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in four of his first 12 starts (35.50, 44.05, 32.25, and 32.90). The Browns kept him in check (17.80 and 19.95 fantasy points) in his two matchups.
In his rookie season, he posted two stellar games (335/3 and 440/4) against Cleveland.
The Browns had the best quarterback fantasy defense (15.00 FPPG) in 2022, one notch above Cincinnati’s pass defense.
The key for Burrow in this matchup is a longer pass window.
His calf issue appears to be healed, but the fantasy market needs to see him in game action before trusting that Burrow is on top of his game.
His matchup suggests fading him, but Cinci had too many receiving weapons to avoid Burrow. In addition, the Browns should score in this matchup.
He needs at least 300 yards with three touchdowns to be in the mix in the daily games in Week 1.

Joe Mixon

Mixon’s ticket came in only once last season (Week 6 – 55.10 fantasy points), helping me win $250,000 at DraftKings. He scored between 17.00 and 21.50 fantasy points) in six matchups, none of which would support his current salary.
The Bengals will rotate in a second running back, but Mixon may have a more significant role out of the gate.
Burrow will use his running backs in the passing game close to the goal line – 103/796/7 on 132 targets. Their backs had the third most catches (103) in the league in 2022.
Three times his salary seems reasonable, leaving some upside if Mixon hits on a second touchdown or a bunch of receptions.
Viable rotational running back upside in Week 1.

Ja’Marr Chase

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS break down of Week 1…

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NFL Week 1 Panthers at Falcons: DFS & Fantasy Preview

NFL Week 1 Panthers at Falcons: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: Falcons – 3 Over/Under: 42 Last year, the Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts, leading to 2,718 yards and 17 scores on the ground. The addition of Bijan Robinson bodes well for repeated success running the ball, but Atlanta needs Desmond Ridder to prove he can move the chains with his arm. Carolina opens up the season with a rookie quarterback (Bryce Young), who had plenty of success in his time in Alabama. The Panthers don’t have a true WR1, with multiple options vying for targets each week. In 2022, they ran the ball 483 times (12th), leading to a fast-moving clock. Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1. The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). Atlanta Falcons Desmond Ridder Over his first four NFL starts, he went 2-2 while averaging 177 passes. He has two career passing touchdowns (none on the ground). I expect him to be active in the run game. He must snipe a rushing score to support his lower-tier salary. The Falcons only have one competitive receiving option (Drake London) in Week 1, as I expect the Falcons to limit the snaps of Kyle Pitts early in the season. A Ridder/London requires about 42.00 points at DraftKings and 38.00 at FanDuel to be in play. I need to see Ridder have success passing the ball before riding in the daily games. Bijan Robinson He has the fourth-highest running back salary at DraftKings and sixth at FanDuel. For the running backs on the main slate in Week 1, Robinson has the highest rating in FP/1000 (2.55) at FanDuel while ranking well at DraftKings (2.68). I view him as a strong play in Week 1. He offers three-down ability with a high probability of scoring vs. the Panthers. With a pair of touchdowns, Robinson has a good chance of being on the winning ticket in his first NFL start. Must start in all formats in the season-long games. Tyler Allgeier Last year, he played well over the final four games (79/431/2 with six catches for 52 yards). The Falcons will rotate him on about 35% of their plays, but Allgeier needs a blowout game to be a viable option at his current price point. Drake London In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, London is the 24th wideout off the table. He played well in his rookie season (72/866/4 on 117 targets), highlighted by his final five starts (6/95, 7/70, 7/96, 5/47, and 6/120). The last four outcomes came with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. London needs a 6/90/1 game to fill his salary bucket. I’m starting London in all leagues that use three wide receiver slots in their starting lineup. Mac Hollins In his fifth season in the NFL, Hollins posted his best year (57/690/4) with the Raiders. Over his previous 65 games, he only had 56 catches for 750 yards and six touchdowns. Hollins had one impact game (8/158/1) in 2022. I don’t see a high volume of targets requiring him to hit on a long score to pay off. Kyle Pitts In his rookie season (68/1,026/1 on 110 targets), Pitts was a big part of the Falcons’ offense. Atlanta threw the ball 573 times in 2021, compared to 415 last season (a drop of 27.6%). Based on this path, Pitts would have finished with 49 catches for 744 yards with the same opportunity in 2022. I don’t see a significant jump in pass attempts for the Falcons this year, and Pitts is coming off a significant knee injury. I expect him to be limited out of the gate, but his salary is low enough to be in play with a 3/40/1 game. Coin toss only while waiting for an update on his role/opportunity in Week 1. Here are some notes from my preseason write-up for the Carolina Panthers Defense. 18th vs. the run in 2022 with 17 rushing touchdowns 23rd against the pass with 25 scores, 10 interceptions, and 35 sacks Weakness on the defensive line, with the linebacking corps being a strength. Their secondary has some question marks coming into 2023. Carolina Panthers Bryce Young First NFL start after tossing 79 touchdowns and 12 interceptions over his final 27 games at Alabama. He won’t be a significant player rushing the ball. To reach a playable number at DraftKings and FanDuel, Young needs at least 250 passing yards and two scores with some value on the ground. His receiving lacks a star out of the gate, leading to him spreading the ball around to multiple receiving options. Miles Sanders In both formats, Sanders needs about 22.00 fantasy points to fill his fantasy bucket. He reached that level (29.60, 31.00, and 28.50) three times in 202s, helped by scoring six of his 11 touchdowns in those matchups. The Panthers will rotate in a second running back, requiring Sanders to be more active in the passing game (28, 26, and 20 catches over the past three seasons) to post a winning score. He can sometimes hit on a long TD, keeping him alive in some matchups if Carolina can play from the lead. I view him as overpriced in the daily games in Week 1. Chuba Hubbard Hubbard had three catches in three of his final five games in 2022. He led the Panthers in running back snaps from Week 15 to Week 18 last season. His best two games (18.90 and 15.30) in fantasy points in PPR formats barely support his opening salary while taking a back seat in touches

Jody Smith’s 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Call them sleepers, flag plants, ‘my guys’, hidden gems, or values. Targeting players who are primed to exceed their current ADP is a tried and true strategy for fantasy success. After writing up our FullTime Fantasy Sleeper of the Year,

Call them sleepers, flag plants, ‘my guys’, hidden gems, or values. Targeting players who are primed to exceed their current ADP is a tried and true strategy for fantasy success. After writing up our FullTime Fantasy Sleeper of the Year, these are my personal 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers.

Some of the players may not be considered traditional sleepers. They might be considered closer to draft-day values. However, these are players that I have been consistently targeting in drafts. Also, I believe they will exceed their current value.

For more sleepers to target, check out our deep-sleeper wide receivers, tight ends, and fades. All of this exclusive content is part of the 2023 FullTime Fantasy Draft Kit.

Now, let’s break down the 2023 fantasy football sleepers and values that I am targeting this season.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) – Herbert isn’t a sleeper by any means. However, I’m including him because I feel Herbert belongs in the conversation of top-tier signal callers. The arrival of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should do wonders for LA’s offense. Volume is already there, but I’m forecast some positive touchdown regression. Herbert is firmly my QB4, well above his FantasyPros ECR.

Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) – Wilson was my pick for Comeback Player of the Year in my Preseaon Pro. Wilson was victimized by terrible coaching last year. The arrival of Sean Payton alleviates that concern. Off the heels of a hot December and fortified by a top-10 schedule, Wilson looks like a top-10 fantasy QB that you can often snag in the last few rounds of fantasy drafts.

Desmond Ridder (Atlanta Falcons) – Is Ridder a breakout candidate with QB1 upside? No. However…

To finish reading Jody’s favorite 2023 sleepers and values to target on draft day…

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Tag: 2023 Fantasy Football Rankings