Read my FFWC Team Reviews examinations of Team 4, Team 6, Team 11 & Team 1 vs. Team 9 vs. Team 12
After strolling through the RB strong teams in a recent FFWC draft, I thought it was only fair to look at a couple of teams that grabbed an edge at WR to see if they were able to get out at running back. Here’s another look at the draft board:
In this draft, I’m going to write about Team 1, Team 9, and Team 12. Each team has at least four WRs after the first four rounds.
The edge by drafting from an early draft position is the big gap gained at RB1 in most seasons in Fantasy football. Each season one of the top RBs will get hurt plus a back or two will underperform their projections. A Fantasy owner only has to look back at 2017 to see the mighty David Johnson crush Fantasy dreams one game into the season.
The best Fantasy owners in the high-stakes market tend to be WR strong while always trying to own an elite RB1. They tend to cheat RB2, but they also understand that you can’t win an overall championship without a developing option at the second RB position.
Team 1 followed the high-stakes script over the first four picks. He grabbed an elite high volume back with pass catching and scoring ability in Todd Gurley. On the 2/3 turn, he tried to add to top WRs. A Fantasy owner and I might not agree with his choices, but he did try to land a pair of WRs with top ten upside.
On the next turn, this owner stayed shopping in the yellow sticker column with Jarvis Landry and Alshon Jeffery.
In the FFWC, a Fantasy owner can start five WRs if he has enough depth. The goal by being extra WR strong in this format is to avoid making lineup decisions each week at WR plus add strength to your roster during bye weeks. The added WR depth also helps cover an injury or two at WR.
When cheating the RB2 position, a Fantasy owner hopes that draft flow present better than expected options at RB between the 5th and the 8th round. In this particular draft, the hardcore press early for RBs left Team 1 a step behind in RB options. When selecting on the 2/3 turn, he didn’t have a strong indication that the RB options on the 4/5 turn would be extremely weak. His only tell was drafting Rashaad Penny in the second round as the 14th RB off the table.
On his 6/7 turn, Team 1 added a high volume pass-catcher plus the best available pass catching back. Again, the top Fantasy owners in the high-stakes market know how to play the game. They will gravitate toward running backs with passing catching upside as they tend to high a high floor than upside RB2s that need an injury to gain playing time. Last year Duke Johnson was the 11th highest scoring RB in PPR leagues. His opportunity won’t be the same in 2018 with Jarvis Landry added to the roster and the changes at RB, but he has a reasonable chance to average between nine and 11 Fantasy points to help this Fantasy owner bridge the gap to a better option.
This owner came up short in RB depth (Ty Montgomery, Bilal Powell, and Jordan Wilkins), which invites risk over a long football season. Montgomery could be an intriguing option as he could develop into the pass-catching back plus the top WR3 option for the Packers. Remember, he came into the NFL as a wide receiver. His ability to stay healthy remains a question, but his price is much lower than in 2017. Powell has been a late-season helper in 2015 and 2016, and I know one Fantasy owner that won an overall championship with him in 2016 thanks to his hot run in the championship weeks.
Team 1 has two proven viable options at QB with reasonable floors. His TE options have upside while Tyler Eifert remains a huge question mark in 2018.
Looking at the draft board, I can see where I can push and pull to make the team better. Unfortunately, a Fantasy owner doesn’t have the same option when sitting at the draft table. All decisions need to happen quickly, and pre-draft thoughts help make better moves within the draft.
Team 1 with have an edge at RB1, a steady WR1, and QB. His WR2, WR3, Flex1, and Flex2 should combine for an overall edge if all players stay healthy and perform as expected. He’ll chase RB2 in the free agent pool while trying to manage his option at TE. This team should be in the hunt for the league playoffs with reasonable success in the H2H battles.
To win an overall championship, a Fantasy owner will need to do a better job with the RB options if taking a similar draft plan.
Now, Team 9 hit the gas at wide receiver over his first five picks. His WR core has a natural progression where he should have an edge at WR1 (DeAndre Hopkins), WR2 (Keenan Allen), WR3 (Stefon Diggs), Flex 1 (Allen Robinson), and Flex2 (DeVante Parker). If all four players hit on my projections, they will average just over 76 Fantasy points per week in PPR leagues.
This owner will then need to find a QB or QB combination to average over 20 Fantasy points, which seems very reasonable. He has a TE (Greg Olsen) than should average over ten Fantasy points per game (12.96 in 2016 and 14.83 in 2015). His defense/kicker options should score about 17 Fantasy points per game at the low end.
All of this info adds up to just over 120 Fantasy points per game. Now the big question, can this team’s RB options average over 22 Fantasy points per week?
Tevin Coleman is an excellent upside back who has top 12 upside if Devonta Freeman had an injury. He doesn’t seem as sexy as an RB1, but he’s at the mercy of his draft plan. Last year Coleman was the 22nd highest scoring RB while averaging 10.48 Fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. I’ll give him a check make for his first RB2 option (this team won’t have an RB1 option at least in late July).
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Next move was to secure an early down RB on the Jets. By doing this, he hopes to hit on the second RB spot on his roster. Nick Chubb is his upside swing.
Team 9 took the 2/3 position at RB for the Chargers while also adding Chris Carson and Spencer Ware.
To offset some of his expected shortfall at RB1 and RB2, this owner even took an edge on defense (Jacksonville) and at kicker (Justin Tucker).
This draft structure has overall winning upside even with a glaring hole at RB1. His roster should have strength in nine of his 11 starting spots with RB2 at least being in the game.
A Fantasy drafting from a late draft position should use this script to figure how to improve his overall depth at RB while only taking a slight step back at the WR position.
My first glance would point me to the fourth round. I would trade in Allen Robinson for another viable starting RB while looking to add another upside WR later in the draft.
Based on this draft flow, I’d my team’s chances better with these decisions:
Allen Robinson > Sony Michel
DeVante Parker > Corey Davis
I’d be tempted to draft Marlon Mack over Isaiah Crowell in the 8th as I trust the Colts’ offense a lot more than the Jets with Andrew Luck back behind center.
The perfect out for me in my trade-offs would be Mike Williams sliding to Team 9 in the 9th round. I know he went one pick before his selection, but he may slide to the right spot in many early drafts. Williams is going to be tougher to draft once the preseason games start. If I did draft Williams, I need to know if Nick Chubb still has a chance to reach me in the next round.
The next stop in this draft is Team 12. This owner takes an edge at WR1 and WR2 with Odell Beckham and Julio Jones. Both options have 100+ catch upside. The only knock on Jones is lack of TDs in recent years while having many in-game minor injuries.
The FullTime Fantasy Sports team has lost some love for Larry Fitzgerald, but he remains a talented high volume pass catcher that works hard to stay in shape. As a WR3, he should be a nice option with possible growth in TDs with better offensive production expected with David Johnson back on the field.
If LeSean McCoy stays healthy, he’s going to be a steal at this price point. His off the field issues have led to him free falling in drafts. I don’t trust him, but I’m only right 72 percent of the time (old joke from the early days in Fantasy baseball).
Marvin Jones fits well as the Flex1 option, and Mark Ingram should be more than serviceable when he returns from his suspension.
If Chris Thompson isn’t healthy to start the year, Team 12 is going to struggle to get playable points at RB2. Giovani Bernard is the best option behind Thompson. His RB depth has some upside and passing catching ability. The health of Thompson and D’Onta Foreman will determine his long-term success.
His QB choices and TE options both project to be in the top 8 at each position.
Both Kelvin Benjamin and Dede Westbrook fill the need to play at Flex2 while covering bye weeks.
When comparing the top four WRs and lead RB with Team 1 and Team 9, Team 12 has a clear edge at WR for sure. He beats Team 9 at RB1 while being crushed at the same position by Team 1. Of the three teams, I’ll stick my neck out and say Team 9 has the best chance of success of the WR strong teams.
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