Key Three Skaters
Cam Atkinson (CBJ)
Atkinson is seventh among forwards in goals per 60 and third in shots per 60 on the season. He’s hit a bit of a dry spell in terms of goals over the last month or so, but he’s still getting shots at an 11.95 per 60 clip. In a matchup that he’s had success in over the years and against a Caps team on the back end of a back to back after an inspiring win last night, I’ll look to Cam at home.
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL)
After a putrid start to the season for the Blues and a lot of bad luck for Tarasenko, he’s turned his game on over the last month. In 12 games over the last four weeks, the aforementioned month’s span, Tarasenko is fourth in goals per 60, averaging over 10 shots per 60, and 14th in total points per 60. The Devils have allowed the most fantasy points per game to right-wingers of any team in the league over the past month, including nine goals, 16 assists, and 78 shots over the 11-game stretch.
John Tavares (TOR)
After a bit of a cold spell, Tavares has ramped up his play of late with a goal and an assist in three of his last four games. In 5 v 5 situations he’s now second among forwards in points per 60 at 3.15, first in goals per 60 at 1.79, and fifth in high-danger scoring chances per 60. The Leafs can be somewhat unpredictable in determining where their scoring is going to come from at times, but JT is a safe bet to produce in a game that could go to the moon tonight.
Favorite Line Stacks
St. Louis Blues First Line
Schenn – O’Reilly – Tarasenko
Over the past month, the Blues have turned up their game in all facets, especially offensively. In 5 v 5 situations over their last the Blues are second in high-danger scoring chances per 60, eighth in goals scored per 60, and first in shots per 60. O’Reilly has points in nine of his last 11 games, Schenn is a great value on left-wing, and Vlad Tarasenko has woken up with points in each of his last eight games, including seven goals and five assists over that span. The Blues have one seven of their last eight and have beaten some pretty good teams in the process, including the Predators twice, the Lightning in Tampa and the Blue Jackets in Columbus. The Devils are just 3-6-1 in their last 10, 7-17-3 on the road, and have lost nine of their last 10 against the Blues. This line sees full power-play correlation as well aiding their upside.
Columbus Blue Jackets First Line
Panarin – Dubois – Atkinson
The Capitals are playing very well right now, I hate to say from an offensive standpoint but they’re still a bit inconsistent on the defensive end. The defending Stanley Cup Champs have allowed the most fantasy points to centers over the last month, making Pierre-Luc Dubois a desirable option at just $5,800 on DK. He may have just one point in three games against the Caps this season, but in those three games he’s generated eight shots and of late he’s been producing with points in five of his last seven games, including four goals and four assists over that span. Cam Atkinson, who I mentioned above kills the Capitals. In 24 career games against them, he has 10 goals, seven assists, and averages over three shots per game. Panarin, the subject of much trade speculation after he said last week that he’ll definitely be testing free agency in the offseason, hasn’t let that affect his play as he has points in 10 of his last 12 with eight goals and 10 assists while recording multiple points in seven of those efforts. Much like the Blues, this line sees time on the top power-play unit together and will get their opportunities against the 23rd-ranked penalty kill. The Caps just played last night thus making this a good opportunity for Columbus (14-11-2 at home) to get off to a fast start in their own arena.
Colorado Avalanche First Line
Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen
This game has bananas written all over it. The pace at which these two teams play screams scoring chances and I when considering that the Maple Leafs get scoring from everywhere and anywhere, I’ll lean on 420, the predominant source of offense for the Avs, at home. While Toronto has been good on the road with a 17-7-2 record, they’ve played in some high scoring affairs as they’ve allowed three goals per game in enemy territory. The Avalanche average over three goals per game at the Pepsi Center and are looking to turn things around after what has been a brutal stretch that has seen them lose seven straight games. 420 has been uncharacteristically cold of late, thus Colorado has struggled, but they are too good to not break out and in a spot where their ownership should be down, the fast pace that this game should have attached to it will work well in their favor.
Favorite Game Stack
Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning
Taking a book out of SD’s thinking, there is a potential monster game tonight in Tampa between two of the best teams in the NHL, the Flames and the Lightning. It’s strength against strength here, folks. The Lighning have been incredible at home (21-5-2) while the Flames have been stout on the road (17-10-1). Tampa averages 4.11 goals per game at home, second-most in the league. Calgary averages 3.14 goals per game on the road, ninth in the league while allowing just 2.43 goals per game in enemy territory. Over the past month, the Lightning have allowed a ton of high-danger scoring chances per 60 in 5 v 5 situation, top-five in the league as a matter of fact while Calgary is in the top five in goals scored per 60 in such situations over the same timeframe.
Flames to Consider Stacking:
Gaudreau – Monahan – Lindholm – Giordano/Brodie: The top line at even strength and on the top power-play unit is as good a stack as there is tonight. Giordano correlates in both situations but he’s expensive. Consider the value of Brodie as an even-strength correlation.
Tkachuk – Backlund – Frolik: Tkachuk is the money player on this line coming in fourth on the team in points and seeing time on the top power-play unit. Backlund and Frolik bring a lot of value which you’ll need if locking in on this game.
Lightning to Consider Stacking:
Point – Kucherov – Hedman: Point and Kuch have skated together for the majority of the season while the left-winger on their line has been mixed around, in this case, Yanni Gourde. For the sake of looking for maximum correlation, I’m fine with leaving Gourde out as he doesn’t see time on the top power-play unit. Inserting Hedman in give you that power-play correlation while getting a lot of even strength correlation.
Johnson – Stamkos – Miller: While Stamkos’ salary has jumped up quite a bit thanks to his productive play, there is good value on both of his wings with Johnson and Miller. There’s an added dimension here as J.T. Miller is penciled in on the Lightning top power-play unit.
Value Line Stacks
Chicago Blackhawks Second Line
Kahun – Strome – DeBrincat
Toronto Maple Leafs Third Line
Brown – Kadri – Nylander
Carolina Hurricanes Second Line
Ferland – Wallmark – Teravainen
Top Positional Plays
Center
Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH) – It’s impossible to ignore how good Kuzy has been of late. He has six goals and six assists over his last six games with at least three shots in all but one of those games.
Mark Scheifele (WPG) – Goals in two of his last three games and three goals in his last five against the Rangers.
Matt Duchene (OTT) – He’s on fire with five goals in his last five games.
Mika Zibanajad (NYR) – Zib has eight goals in his last eight games with four assists and Winnipeg has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to centers over the last four weeks.
Patrice Bergeron (BOS) – While the Blackhawks have played much better, they still are lacking a bit on the defensive end. If not for some stellar play of late from their goaltenders, their defensive numbers would look very ugly. Bergeron has four goals and three assists over his last five games and has been flying all over the ice as the main facilitator for the Bruins.
William Karlsson (VGK) – With points in each of his last three games, Wild Bill is still pretty much free on DK.
Wing
Patrick Kane (CHI) – Not an easy matchup but is hasn’t mattered for Kane who has points in each of his last 14 games with multi-point efforts nine times over that span.
Viktor Arvidsson (NSH) – Not a game that I love for much scoring, but Arvy has been hot averaging the second-most goals in 5 v 5 per 60 over the past month.
Chris Kreider (NYR) – The Jets have allowed the second-most fantasy point to left-wingers over the past month.
Mitch Marner (TOR) – Eighth in points pr 60 in 5 v 5 this season and has points in three of his last five.
Anders Lee (NYI) – In what should be a slow-moving defensive game, Lee should be in consideration against Buffalo who have allowed 14 goals to left-wingers in their last 10 games to go along with 10 assists and 79 shots.
Mark Stone (OTT) – Points in each of his last three games including three goals in his last two. Stone compiles points in a lot of different ways for the Sens skating in every situation. You get a lot of bang for your buck when rostering him.
Jonathan Marchessault (VGK) – Good pairing with Wild Bill at a value.
Brady Tkachuk (OTT) – Good value and among all forwards, he’s fourth over the last month in high-danger scoring chances per 60 in 5 v 5.
Defensemen
Morgan Rielly (TOR) – The Avs have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to defensemen over the last four weeks and Rielly continues to produce as he’s second among defensemen in points per 60.
Tyson Barrie (COL) – Just one point in his last four games against some of the best teams at defending the position in the league. Look for him to be more productive against the Leafs who have been very generous to defensemen, especially over the past month allowing the most fantasy points to the position in the league.
Seth Jones (CBJ) – Washington has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to d-men over the last four weeks and Jones has points in six of his last eight games.
Thomas Chabot (OTT) – Carolina has allowed nine goals and 16 assists to defensemen over their last 11 games and Chabot, the only real offensive option on the blue line for Ottawa, is fifth among d-men in points per 60.
John Klingberg (DAL) – Always target defensemen against Florida, especially someone like Klingberg who is so heavily involved in the offensive zone.
Alex Pietrangelo (STL) – The Devils are solid against the position but Pietrangelo is still an option to consider as I expect St. Louis to put up a crooked number tonight.
Value
Zach Werenski (CBJ)
Jake Gardiner (TOR)
Erik Johnson (COL)
Justin Faulk (CAR)
Charlie McAvoy (BOS)
Miro Heiskanen (DAL)
Shea Theodore (VGK)
Top Goalies
Robin Lehner (NYI) – Having a great season and should have some extra motivation after Buffalo kicked him to the curb after last season. That showed earlier this season when he stopped 39 shots out of 40 in Buffalo in a winning effort.
Jordan Binnington (STL) – The rookie has allowed more than two goals just once in 11 starts and owns a 1.72 GAA and .931 save percentage.
Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK) – A case can be made for Fleury being the best goalie in the league this season. He’s recorded the most shutouts (6) and the most wins (29) of any goaltender while seeing the third-most shots (1367).
Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) – Helly is a high-upside play at home tonight as he’s seen at least 36 shots in six of his last eight games. He has 25 wins on the season and is historically better at home.
