We have a massive 14-game slate tonight in the NHL leading into Thanksgiving. These slates can tend to overwhelm some people because there are so many directions to go. To simplify things, we should look at these slates like a Friday MLB slate, for example. The first thing I do is look at the games/teams and eliminate at least a handful of them pretending they’re not there when considering skaters to roster. Below is the full slate of games with a few of the games/teams (highlighted in RED) that I will be avoiding tonight from a skater perspective:
Islanders at Rangers
Canadiens at Devils
Stars at Penguins
Blackhawks at Capitals
Maple Leafs at Hurricanes
Flyers at Sabres
Bruins at Red Wings
Panthers at Lightning
Blues at Predators
Senators at Wild
Golden Knights at Coyotes
Canucks at Ducks
Jets at Flames
Avalanche at Kings
Top Goalies
Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)
Against the Flames, Helly has allowed an average of two goals against in his last four starts. We’re getting a nice price on him on DK tonight and he’s in play on FD as well. These two teams have been pretty even over their last 10 matchups and are both going well right now. I like Helly to get enough offensive support here en route to his fifth win in a row.
Frederik Andersen (TOR)
Andersen has won each of his last three starts and should see plenty of work tonight against the Hurricanes. Carolina averages the most shots (40.1) per game while Andersen has seen at least 37 shots in four of his last five starts. The upside here is extremely high, especially considering how good the Leafs have been on the road. However, whenever a goaltender is expected to see the volume that I think Andersen sees tonight, there’s always that possibility that they get lit up, just keep that in mind.
Devan Dubnyk (MIN)
Believe it or not, there is some risk here against Ottawa. The Senators lead the league in goals per game while also allowing the most goals per game. Minnesota has done a good job limiting high-danger scoring chances while allowing low percentage shots. Similar to Andersen this is a spot that can blow up in front of us, but with Minnesota playing down of late, I expect them to come out fired up at home where they are 6-2-2 while Ottawa is just 2-5-1 on the road this season.
Semyon Varlamov (COL)
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Varly isn’t someone I expect to see the volume that Andersen will see. However, even in a road matchup, Varly faces the Kings who average the least amount of goals per game right at two. His salary is a bit high considering the workload I project for him, but considering how tough of a time the Kings have had scoring, I like the “safety” of Varly tonight.
Carey Price (MTL)
(Gulp) Price has been good against the Devils the last three times he’s faced them stopping 80 of 85 shots over that span and Montreal is 6-2-1 over these two teams’ last nine matchups. The Devils have been sputtering with just six goals in their last three games but will get top-line center Nico Hischier back tonight after a four-game absence. Price will look to bounce back after a poor effort in his last start in which he allowed five goals to the Capitals who have always seemed to give him a hard time. In his two starts prior to that, Price stopped 79 of 83 shots faced in two road games against the Canucks and Flames. Price will always be a hard guy for me to trust, but taking into account his projected workload (the Devils average 33.1 shots per game and Montreal allows 32 shots per game) the upside is there for the former Vezina and Hart Trophy winner.
Others I like: Tuukka Rask (BOS), John Gibson (ANA)
Key Three Skaters
Filip Forsberg (NSH)
The Blues are a mess right and they’ve just fired head coach Mike Yeo to cause more dismay, at least in the short term. The Predators come in as one of the better teams in the NHL right now with a 7-3 record at home and a 7-2-1 record over their last 10 games. Forsberg has long been a Blues killer. Over his last 10 games against St. Louis, the former Washington Capitals draft pick has 10 goals and 11 assists. Over his last four games, he has three goals and 15 shots.
Jack Eichel (BUF)
The Sabres are playing well right now, especially their top line which is centered by Eichel. Over his current three-game point streak, Jack has a goal, four assists, and 19 shots. The Flyers have allowed 16 goals and 22 assists to centers over their last 11 games and Eichel has five goals and two assists in eight career games against Philly with an average of 3.8 shots per game.
Mark Scheifele (WPG)
Scheifele has been red-hot with nine goals and eight assists over his last 11 games. The Flames have struggled against centers of late allowing 14 goals and 32 assists to the position over their last 13 games. As a force at even strength and on the power play (four goals, five assists), the first-line center for the Jets finds ways to contribute seemingly every night.
Favorite Line Stacks
Predators First Line
Forsberg – Johansen – Smith
With Forsberg being the high-dollar player, and I highlighted a bit why up top, Johansen and Smith slide in as great complimentary pieces at even strength and on the power play. Smith has moved up to the top line in the absence of Viktor Arvidsson after Kevin Fiala proved that he couldn’t do the job and has responded with four points in his last five games to go along with 23 shots. Johansen is very steady while manning the top line of one of the higher scoring teams in the NHL at his value he’s simply hard to ignore.
Jets Second Line
Connor – Little – Laine
I know I spoke about Scheifele (first line center) above, but I like him more as an option to pair up with a certain wing, which I’ll get to later. As a full-line unit, I prefer the Jets second line of Kyle Connor, Bryan Little, and Patrik Laine. Connor and Laine skate together on the top power-play unit and have both been extremely productive up there giving you exposure to one of the best power plays in the league. Little centers these two wingers at even strength and is just $4,000 on DK. He’s obviously not the play that Scheifele is but at that price, with two very good wingers on his side he won’t need much to achieve value and he even brings some upside to the table.
Islanders First Line
Lee – Barzal – Bailey
The Rangers are playing well right now but it’s fraudulent. These two teams just played last week and it looked like that Chiefs-Rams game from the other night; absolutely putrid defense. Lee, Barzal, and Bailey have victimized the Rangers before (not so much last week) but I expect them to make an impact in this spot against backup goaltender Alexander Georgiev.
Wild First Line
Zucker – Staal – Granlund
The Senators, while scoring the most goal per game, have been the worst defensive team in the league allowing over four goals per contest. Over the last month, they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to centers, right-wingers, and left-wingers. Staal, Granlund, and Zucker make up a trio skating together at even strength and on the top power-play unit. Neither of the three have a point in either of their last two games but they won’t be shut down in this soft matchup.
Lightning First Line
Miller – Stamkos – Kucherov
Nikita Kucherov has points in each of his last three games with a goal and five assists. Over the last month (12 games) the Panthers have allowed 14 goals and 14 assists to right-wingers. Kuch has seven goals and five assists in his last 12 games against the Panthers as well. Stamkos also has 12 points (four goals, eight assists) in his last 12 games against the Panthers and has just two points over his last five contests as he’ll look to get going. Miller is filling the “Namestnikov role” which is basically being just-a-guy (J.A.G.) that skates with Stamkos and Kucherov and is somewhat productive. Proof? Vladislav Namestnikov hasn’t done shit since he was traded to the Rangers. Anyways, Miller fits in at a value with aided upside on the top power-play unit.
Others I like
Hurricanes First Line: Ferland – Aho – Teravainen
Sabres First Line: Skinner – Eichel – Pominville (don’t even get me started with this guy)
Value Line Stacks
Maple Leafs Second Line: Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen
Predators Second Line: Jarnkrok – Turris – Hartman
Rangers First Line: Kreider – Hayes – Chytil
Canadiens First Line: Tatar – Danault – Gallagher
Flames Second Line: Tkachuk – Backlund – Bennett
Golden Knights Second Line: Pacioretty – Eakin – Tuch
Top Positional Plays
Players not included in “key three”, “favorite line stacks”, or “value line stacks” sections.
Center
Aleksander Barkov (FLA) – I’m not sure when Jason Robbins and his people at DK hired the morons that run the pricing at FD but $5,900 is about $1,000 too cheap. He has 14 points in his last 12 games against the Lightning and four goals with three assists in his last six games. He’s the focal point at the center, more so now with Vinnie Trocheck sidelined for a while.
Tyler Seguin (DAL) – Heating up with goals in back-to-back games, along with two assists, and faces the Penguins who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position over the last month.
John Tavares (TOR) – Third in the league among forwards in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and has a goal in six of his last eight games.
Matt Duchene (OTT) – Six goals and six assists in his last six games to go along with 22 shots.
David Krejci (BOS) – Moved up to center Pastrnak and Marchand after the Bergeron injury. Good value.
Evgeni Malkin (PIT) – Multiple points in each of his last three games and is still the only game in town at that position with the absence of Crosby.
Nate MacKinnon (COL) – No explanation needed. I just wanted to make sure you people didn’t think I forgot about him.
Sean Couturier (PHI) – Has points in five of his last six games.
Wing
David Pastrnak (BOS) – In 12 games against Detroit, he has eight goals and eight assists. Besides that, he has 17 goals on the season and six tallies in his last seven games.
Mike Hoffman (FLA) – Love pairing him up with Barkov at a nice value, especially on DK. In his last nine games against Tampa, he has three goals and three assists and the Lightning have allowed the second-most fantasy points to right-wingers over the last month.
Blake Wheeler (WPG) – Good pairing with Scheifele and a good playmaker on the top line and top power-play unit for the Jets.
Jeff Skinner (BUF) – Skinner has nine goals and two assists with 3.89 shots per game over his last nine. In 30 career games against the Flyers, he has 13 goals and 10 assists. I like the idea of pairing him with Eichel in any format.
Taylor Hall (NJ) – The Canadiens have allowed the second-most fantasy points to left-wingers (14 goals, 17 assists) over the last month.
Mikko Rantanen (COL) – I don’t love this game in general, but this dude is a machine. He leads all forwards in point per 60 minutes, assists per 60, and sees over 21 minutes of ice-time per game.
Mitch Marner (TOR) – Speaking of machines, Marner has points in each of his last five games with multiple points in three of those. He leads all forwards in primary assists per 60, is fifth in points per 60, and averages over 10 shots per 60. Great to pair with Tavares which has been the case all season and hopefully will be the case forever.
Patric Hornqvist (PIT) – After a slow start, Horn has picked it up and recently has three goals in his last three games.
Phil Kessel (PIT) – Points in each of his last five games (three goals, five assists).
Claude Giroux (PHI) – Nine points in his last nine games against the Sabres and a good winger to pair with Couturier in what could be a sneaky high-scoring game.
Defense
Matt Dumba (MIN) – Three goals and two assists in his last four games and now a matchup with the Senators who’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position over the last month. Dumba is second in goals per 60, seventh in shots per 60, and first in high-danger scoring chances per 60 among defensemen.
Dougie Hamilton (CAR) – Leads all defensemen in shots per 60 and the Leafs have struggled to defend the position all season.
Dustin Byfuglien (WPG) – Third among defensemen in high-danger scoring chances per 60 and ninth in assists per 60.
Roman Josi (NSH) – Points in each of his last three games, 19 shots over his last four, and is eighth in minutes per game at the position.
Jeff Petry (MTL) – The Devils have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position over the last month.
Morgan Rielly (TOR) – He’s been the most productive at the position this season. Period.
Kris Letang (PIT) – He’s been healthy and thus productive. Second in ice-time per game, 12th in points per 60, 10th in shots per 60, and 7th in primary assists per 60 at the position.
Thomas Chabot (OTT) – Leading the offensive charge on the back-end for Ottawa. He’s second in points per 60 among all defensemen.
Value
Jake Gardiner (TOR)
Brandon Montour (ANA)
Nick Leddy (NYI)
Erik Johnson (COL)
Esa Lindell (DAL)
Colin Miller (VGK)
Aaron Ekblad (FLA)
Jaccob Slavin (CAR)
T.J. Brodie (CGY)
Ryan Pulock (NYI)
GOOD LUCK!!
