Key Two Skaters
Tyler Seguin (DAL)
On a two-game slate provided the upside that Seguin brings and the matchup he has in front of him, I simply think he’s too cheap on both sites as the fifth-highest priced center. The first half of the season was not at all efficient for the ninth-year pro as he posted a shooting percentage of just 9.2 percent which would be the second-lowest of his career. Seguin ranks ninth in shots per 60 with 11.47 and I would expect some positive regression in the second half for him with more pucks going into the net. Over the last three season, Seguin has recorded 80 points (33 goals, 47 assists) in 86 games after the all-star break, including 17 goals over 32 games after last years star-studded event. I expect a productive second half from the Stars’ center and that begins tonight against Buffalo playing their second road game in as many nights.
Phil Kessel (PIT)
The Pens looked like shit the other night against the Devils who have oddly had their number all season long. In any event, in a game that should see plenty of scoring chances resulting in a good amount of goals, Kessel, who averages 3.60 points per 60 (16th in the league) should be involved. In his last two games against Tampa, Kessel has three goals and three assists and has points in 10 of his last 13 games, including playoffs (eight goals, 10 assists) against the Lightning overall.
Favorite Line Stacks
Penguins Second Line
Rust – Malkin – Kessel
I’m looking at the Pens second line primarily because they’re cheaper, mainly Malkin ($6,000 on DK, $8,400 on FD) and Kessel ($5,800 on DK, $7,500 on FD) compared to Sidney Crosby ($7,000 on DK, $8,800 0n FD) and Jake Guentzel ($6,000 on DK, $7,700 on FD) and both see power play time on the top unit. Rust is a nice value on both sites ($4,600 on DK, $4,800 on FD) and has goals in two of his last four games against Tampa.
Stars First Line
Janmark – Seguin – Radulov
I spoke on Seguin and I really like pairing him up with Radulov at both even strength and on the power-play. Janmark offers a ton of value at $2,500 on DK and $3,600 on FD as a plugin play to fill this line out. Of course, you could fade Janmark here and grab someone like Jamie Benn or John Klingberg, who I’ll get to later, as a power-play stack in this spot. On the surface, though, Janmark’s value makes him an easy “punt” choice as someone who won’t need to do much to pay off.
Sabres First Line
Skinner – Eichel – Reinhart
This line kept clicking along last night combining for two goals, an assist, and 13 shots. They all skate together on the top power-play unit and more often than not, the bulk of the Sabres forward production, with last night obviously being an outlier, comes from this trio.
Top Positional Plays
Center
Brayden Point (TB) – Perhaps the biggest all-star snub, Point is coming in fifth in goals per 60, 15th in assists per 60, and second in points per 60. He has four goals and an assist in his last three games against the Pens and I expect him to pick up right where he left off prior to the all-star break when he came in with multiple points in four of his last seven games.
Steven Stamkos (TB) – After a slow start, he came into the break with points in eight of nine games. He has two goals and four assists in his last four games against Pittsburgh.
Derick Brassard (PIT) – Great value on both sites with five points in his last three games against Tampa.
Casey Mittelstadt (BUF) – Was very active last night in 11 minutes of ice-time with four shots and an assist. He brings great value centering the second line at $3,100 on DK and $3,700 on FD.
Wing
Nikita Kucherov (TB) – Love the pairing with Point as Kuch has killed the Pens with four goals and five assists in his last five games against them.
Patric Hornqvist (PIT) – Skating on the third line with Brassard. A good value combo to get exposure to this game and also skating on the top power-play unit.
Jamie Benn (DAL) – The primary scoring option on the Stars’ second line, but seeing power-play time on the top unit.
Ondrej Palat (TB) – Worth a look as a pairing with Stamkos or if you want some cheaper Tampa exposure. Palat is slated to skate on the top power-play unit and Palat came into the break with three goals in six games on 18 shots.
Evan Rodrigues (BUF) – Red hot with goals in four straight games.
Defense
I think tonight, more than most nights you need to nail this position.
Kris Letang (PIT) – Heavily involved in the offense and averages the third-most ice time of any defensemen in the league. His is rock solid and his upside is somewhere in the clouds.
John Klingberg (DAL) – He’s basically a forward out there more often than not generating a ton of scoring chances and moving the puck as well as any defenseman in the league.
Victor Hedman (TB) – Picks his spots offensively but he’s extremely efficient and is fifth in high-danger chances per 60, and 10th in points per 60 among defensemen.
Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF) – Expect a similar effort to last night when he had four shots, a blocked shot, and an assist in 26 plus minutes of ice time.
Miro Heiskanen (DAL) – Seventh among defensemen in individual scoring chances per 60 and a value pivot off of Klingberg. Let’s call him “Klingberg-Light”.
Value/Punt Options
I wouldn’t play more than one of these guys, as I said above, I think the defense spot is crucial tonight.
Brian Dumoulin (PIT)
Dan Girardi (TB)
Juuso Rikola (PIT)
Jake McCabe (BUF)
Esa Lindell (DAL)
Top Goalies
Ben Bishop (DAL) – He’s the “safe” play which is fucking terrifying. Don’t expect a big number here, I’m looking for the goalie that’ll give me the best chance to get a win tonight and I think Bishop has the best chance of that.
Matt Murray (PIT) – In a game that could have 852 goals combined, Murray is an upside play at home. I’ll look at him over Vasilevskiy simply because I think he sees more shots and he’s $600 less on DK and $500 less on FD.
GOOD LUCK!!
