Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,400/FD – $9,000)
Even with a tougher matchup in Week 13 vs. the 49ers, Jackson still scored 24.35 Fantasy points, which was better than the fifth-highest scoring average for the QB position in 2019. His value last week game came again from his legs (16/101/1). He only needs 23 rushing yards to break the 1,000-yard barrier and 63 yards to set the NFL record for rushing yards by the quarterback position. Jackson scored over 30.0 Fantasy points in seven of his 12 games while failing to pass for over 170 yards in five of his previous seven games. The Bills rank third in QB defense (15.37 FPPG) with nine opponents scoring fewer 20.0 Fantasy points or fewer. Buffalo should defend Jackson in the passing game (6.2 yards per pass attempt with nine passing TDs allowed). The Bills do have risk defending the run (4.5 yards per rush with 11 rushing TDs). More steady than explosive with both teams expected to run the ball a lot.
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,400)
The KC passing game lost its way in each of the last two games (182/1 and 175/1). Over Mahomes’ first seven full games, he passed for 2,550 yards with 17 TDs and one Int with his best value coming in four games (31.10, 37.15, 31.60, 34.30 Fantasy points). He passed for over 300 yards in six games with three or more TDs in five outings. Last year Mahomes passed for 647 yards and seven TDs vs. the Patriots in two games. New England continues to lead the NFL in QB defense (13.25 FPPG), with ten opponents scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. Even with the Patriots’ success vs. QBs, they did allow over 30.0 Fantasy points in two of their previous four games. On the year, New England allows only 5.5 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing only eight TDs. Great QB, who should challenge this defense. Against the grain play with a chance at 300-plus yards with three or more TDs.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,400)
After poor three games run (161/1, 233/0, and 104/1), Rodgers snapped out of his slump vs. the Giants when he passed for 243 yards with four TDs. His best two games came in Week 7 (429/5) and Week 8 (305/3). On the year, Rodgers has 23 TDs and two Ints while averaging 255 passing yards per game. The Redskins ranks 20th in QB defense (21.51 FPPG), with five teams scoring 28.0 Fantasy points per game. Washington allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 22 TDs. The Redskins haven’t allowed over 175 yards to the WR position since Week 2. Rodgers will get his passing yards with his RBs being active in the passing game. Worth a flier.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,200)
Over his last eight games, Cousins passed for 2,297 yards and 20 TDs with only two Ints. His only game over this span with no TDs came in Week 8 (285/0). His path over his hot run projected over a full season would come to 4,610 combined yards with 40 TDs. In Week 7, he passed for 338 yards and four TDs in his matchup in Detroit. The Lions sit 26th in QB defense (24.18 FPPG) with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. This week Detroit will start a third-string QB while also having a ton of risk defending the run game. Cousins projects well this week, which would be helped by Adam Thielen playing. In my thoughts, due to his chance at 300-plus passing yards with three or more TDs.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,600)
Over the last two games, Ryan was sacked 15 times, but he still passed for over 300 yards in each contest. On the year, Ryan passed for over 300 yards in nine of his 11 starts with 22 TDs. In Week 11, Ryan threw for 311 yards with a TD vs. the Panthers. Last week he didn’t have the services of Julio Jones, which may not be the issue this week. Carolina moved to 11th in QB defense (18.74 FPPG), with seven teams scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. Five of the previous eight QBs passed for over 300 yards against the Panthers with WRs having success in four games (17/277/2, 23/296, 16/244, and 19/283/1). The Falcons’ offensive line remains an issue, but he has the receiving talent to post 300-plus yards with multiple TDs.
Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,700)
Last week the big fear of starting Watson vs. the Patriots’ top defense ended up being a mistake for the owners with weak knees. He finished as the second-highest scoring QB on the week after passing for 234 yards with four TDs. His streak with fewer than 300 yards passing extended to five games. He scored over 30.0 Fantasy points in five other games (34.40, 30.35, 46.00, 34.20, 30.55). The Broncos dipped to fifth in QB defense (16.23 FPPG) after allowing over 20.0 Fantasy points to QB in their last three games (27.05, 21.85, and 20.25). Only one QB has over 300 yards with three TDs vs. Denver. The Broncos allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 14 TDs. May surprise thanks to his top two WRs.
Jameis Winston, TB (DK – 6,400/FD – $7,700)
Winston sits 6th in QB scoring (22.84 FPPG). He passed over 300 yards in seven of his previous eight games. His two impact games came in Week 3 (30.30 Fantasy points) and Week 4 (34.25 Fantasy points). Over the previous seven games, Winston has 11 TDs and 15 Ints. The Colts rank 12th in QB defense (18.74 FPPG) with no QB scoring over 23.0 Fantasy points over the last nine games. Indy allows 7.3 yards per passing attempt with QB tossing 19 TDs. Two teams passed for over 300 yards with three TDs (LAR – 333/3 and ATL – 304/30. The hint of upside comes from the Colts’ secondary allowing over 200 yards to WRs in two of their previous three games (22/235/2 and 14/240/2). I expect big games from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, pointing to a winnable game for Winston.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,600)
For the second time in three games, Mayfield failed to pass for over 200 yards vs. the Steelers with a low completion rate in both contests (53.1 and 56.3). Over the last four games, he picked eight TDs and two Ints, which is a move in the right direction after a slow start to the season. Last year he passed for 542 yards with seven TDs in two games vs. the Bengals. Cinci ranks 24th in QB defense (23.68 FPPG), with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. They allow 8.5 yards per pass rush with QB tossing 16 TDs. Last week Mayfield hurt his right thumb, but it doesn’t look like it will be an issue in Week 14. His 2018 resume suggests possible best game of the year if the Browns’ RBs don’t steal his upside.
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,800)
Allen has been at his best over his previous four games (28.10, 36.40, 21.85, and 25.85 Fantasy points), helping him to fifth ranking in QB scoring (23.13 FPPG). His floor remains high thanks to improved value in the run game (40/195/5) over his last five games. Allen hasn’t passed for over 270 yards in any contest in 2019 with a season-high four TDs in Week 11. The Ravens moved to fourth in QB defense (16.03 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 18.0 Fantasy points in eight games. A tough matchup with only steady value.
Jacoby Brissett, IND (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,400)
Over his last four full games, Brissett passed for 798 yards and two passing TDs with some success as a runner (15/69/2). He passes for 300 yards in three contests with three TDs or more in three games. Over his five games on the road, he averaged only 12.54 Fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The Bucs allow the second-most Fantasy points to QBs (25.53) with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Without T.Y. Hilton, Brissett is a losing bet on the road even with a great matchup in the daily games.
Tom Brady, NE (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,700)
Brady ranks 10th in QB scoring (20.70 FPPG) while failing to score over 30.0 Fantasy in any games. His top five games came in Week 1 (29.05), Week 2 (27.30), Week 5 (28.40, Week 6 (27.30), and Week 13 (28.60). He passed for over 300 yards in five games with three TDs in three contests. Last year he passed for 688 yards and two TDs in two games vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City is 22nd in QB defense (21.69 FPPG), with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. They allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 18 passing TDs. I expect Brady to get his passing yards while New England does most of their scoring in close on the ground.
Sam Darnold, NYJ (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,700)
After two straight impactful games (290/4 and 331/3), Darnold looked like a great start vs. the winless Bengals. For the second time in five weeks, he went on the road with a favorable matchup against a team with no victories. In Week 9, he passed for 260 yards with one TD in a loss to Miami. Last week he attempted a season-high 48 passes against a bottom-tier defense vs. QBs, but Darnold managed only 239 yards passing with no TDs while gaining a measly 5.0 yards per pass attempt. I feel sorry for Jets’ fan as they continue to have this inner battle of love and hate for Darnold as they desperately need him to be a decade long franchise QB. After 22 starts in his career, he’s 8-14 with a 4-5 record in 2019. The next impact QB does reside in the state of New York, but he goes by the name of Josh Allen. The Dolphins rank 29th in QB defense (25.15 FPPG) while showing regression defending QBs in the last three games (36.40, 27.85, and 28.50). A rebound game should be expected, but New York will have success as well at the RB position.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400)
Last week Fitzpatrick had his best game (365/3) of the year thanks to a great game by DeVante Parker (7/159/2). Over his previous three starts at home, he passed for 976 yards with six TDs and one Int while being a non-factor over his last four road contests passing the ball (855/5). Fitzpatrick did add value away from home on the ground (20/98/3). He passed for 288 yards and three TDs against the Jets in Week 9 in Miami. New York is league average defending QBs (20.56 FPPG) with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Jets should play better at home, leading to regression by Fitzpatrick.
Drew Brees, NO (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,700)
The 2019 Super Bowl could be on the line this week for the Saints and Brees. A loss will most likely force New Orleans into a third playoff game with a road through Green Bay and San Francisco or Seattle. In his four home starts, Brees averaged 22.90 Fantasy points in DraftKings scoring highlighted by his game in Week 8 (373/3). In comparison, he scored only 16.2 Fantasy points in his two full contests on the road. The 49ers remain second in the NFL defending the QB position (14.65 FPPG) while showing more risk in three of their previous five games (25.45, 28.20, and 24.35 Fantasy points). San Fran allows only 5.4 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing only 12 TDs. I like Brees at home, but this matchup is purely against the grain.
Devlin Hodges, PIT (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,000)
In his two starts, Hodges passed for 344 yards with two TDs and two Ints while attempting only 41 passes. He did help the Steelers to two straight wins while offering a respectable completion rate (67.2) and success in his yards per pass attempt (8.7). This season the Steelers’ QBs haven’t passed for more than 260 yards with 15 TDs while gaining 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals continue to have the worst defense in the NFL vs. QBs (29.06 FPPG), with eight teams scoring over 28.0 Fantasy points. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt with QB tossing 31 TDs. Arizona allowed 1,899 passing yards and 14 passing TDs over the previous five games. Even with a short resume, Hodges has a winnable matchup with possible value at the receiver positions.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,500)
Murray lost his momentum last week (191 combined yards and one TD) after playing well in his previous three games (25.45, 31.00, and 28.20 Fantasy points). He struggled to create a passing window while being sacked six times. His combined yards are almost identical at home (1,469) and on the road (1,643), but he has 11 TDs of his 18 TDs in Arizona. The Steelers are 8th in QB defense (17.81 FPPG), with seven of their previous ten opponents scoring under 20.0 Fantasy points. The Steelers have 43 sacks with QBs gaining only 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Not ideal for the daily games.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,300)
Over the past three games, Tannehill only attempted 59 combined passes leading to 704 combined yards with eight TDs. In his six starts, he passed for over 300 yards in two contests with his best value coming in Week 12 (299 combined yards with four TDs). He’s gaining an impressive 9.1 yards per pass attempt with success in his completion rate (72.7). The Raiders somehow held Patrick Mahomes to only 21.25 Fantasy points in Week 13 after struggling vs. the QB position four of their previous six games (48.05, 30.55, 30.90, and 31.15 Fantasy points). Oakland ranks 28th in QB defense (24.90 FPPG) with QBs gaining 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 27 passing TDs allowed. He may be overlooked while his matchup could offer upside if game score gets out of line.
Kyle Allen, CAR (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,100)
After a couple of drives last week, Allen looked to be on his way to an impactful day after tossing a couple of TDs. Unfortunately, he struggled to make plays for the next two quarters while adding a rushing TD late. Allen did finish was his highest Fantasy score (28.10) of the year after also playing better in Week 12 (25.70 FPPG). Over his previous four games, he gained 1,216 combined yards with seven TDs and six Ints. Allen struggled in his home game vs. the Falcons (325 yards with four Ints). Atlanta ranks 30th in QB defense (25.24 FPPG), with four teams scoring over 29.0 Fantasy points. They allow 8.0 yards per pass attempt with 23 TDs. The Panthers fired their head coach this week, which may help Allen to a successful game if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t steal the show.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,800)
After a slow start to the year, Garoppolo worked his way to 14th in QB scoring (19.08 FPPG). His only two impact games (317/4 and 424/4) came against the Cardinals. Over his previous two games, he attempted only 41 combined passes while also averaging 27 passes over his first seven starts. New Orleans slipped to 23rd in QB defense (21.93 FPPG), fading a bit vs. QBs over the past three games (313/2, 256/3, and 312/2). They allow 6.7 yards per pass attempt with 19 TDs and 40 sacks. More a grinder game with both teams looking to keep the ball on the ground.
Philip Rivers, LAC (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,300)
Rivers doesn’t have over two TDs over his previous 11 games while passing over 300 yards in six games. Over the last three games, he tossed five TDs and eight Ints. His yards per pass attempt (7.7) is respectable with a slight step back in his completion rate (64.7). The Jaguars are 18th in QB defense (21.10 FPPG), with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Rivers isn’t playing well, and the Chargers’ best success should come on the ground.
Gardner Minshew, JAC (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,600)
The waiver wire pool in shallow leagues had a player with possible significant upside in his Week 13 matchup. In his first two starts for the Jaguars, Nick Foles gained 588 combined yards with two TDs while completing 65 passes and attempting 95 throws. Tampa ranked at the bottom of the league against both QBs and WRs, setting the stage for Foles to pass for well over 300 yards with multiple TDs. Tampa came in with a game plan to attack him with the pass rush, which led to three sacks and one interception by halftime. Foles finished with only 93 yards passing with no TDs while never returning to the field after his half time shower. Minshew passed for 147 yards and a TD in the second half while also earning the start this week. His best value came in Week 5 (27.90 Fantasy points) and Week 8 (27.75 Fantasy points). Minshew passed over 300 yards in two games while producing over two TDs only once in eight starts. The Chargers are 6th in QB defense (16.71 FPPG), with ten opponents scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points at the QB position. Only a fade for me.
Andy Dalton, CIN (DK – $5,200/FD – $7,000)
Dalton led the Bengals to their first win last week, but his game looked rather mediocre (243/1) while gaining only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Over his first eight games, he passed for 2,252 yards with nine TDs and eight Ints with his best value coming in Week 1 (418/2) and Week 2 (311/2). Over the past three games with Ryan Finley starting at QB, Cinci passed for 474 yards and two TDs with massive weakness in their completion rate (47.1). The Browns are 19th in QB defense (21.34 FPPG), with four teams scoring between 28.00 and 32.00 Fantasy points. May surprise in passing yards, but Dalton doesn’t have a game in 2019 with more than two TDs.
David Blough, DET (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,900)
It took Blough about two passes to put his name on the Fantasy map. On third down with ten yards to go four minutes into his first NFL start, he hit Kenny Golladay for a 75-yard TD. Blough finished with 280 yards and two TDs with some weakness in his completion rate (57.9). On the year, The Lions’ QBs passed for 3,464 yards with 26 TDs. The Vikings are 13th defending QBs (19.81 FPPG) with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Minnesota struggled get offenses off the field in the last two games, which led to 151 plays against and a losing battle in time of possession (36:43 and 39:45) in both contests. The Vikings will give up TDs to WRs (16), which is an area of strength for the Lions. A trip on the road should lead to regression by Blough.
Drew Lock, DEN (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,800)
As a four-year starter for Missouri, Lock improved his accuracy in each season (49.0, 54.6, 57.8, and 62.9) while still falling well below the success of Kyler Murray (69.0) and Dwayne Haskins (70.0). Drew played his best ball in his junior year (3,964 passing yards with 44 TDs and 13 Ints). Overall, he passed for 12,193 yards in his college career with 99 passing TDs and 39 Ints. Lock won’t be a threat in the run game (202/437/9). At times, his setup appears to be lazy with too many throws coming from a flat-footed position creating lag in his timing while trying to overcome his tick window by velocity in his throws. The scouts love his size (6’4’ and 225 lbs.) and his field vision, which is helped by a low sack total and a quick release when under duress. In his first NFL start, he passed for 134 yards with two TDs and one Int in a win over the Chargers. Houston ranks 27th in QB defense (24.79), with eight teams scoring over 23.00 Fantasy points. Lock has a favorable matchup, but he lacks the resume to be trusted on the road.
Derek Carr, OAK (DK – $5,000/FD – $7,000)
With Oakland working their way into the playoff hunt after a win over the Bengals in Week 11, Carr turned two poor games (127/0 and 222/1) on the road while tossing three interceptions. He has one TD or fewer in three straight games while failing to pass for over 300 yards in any game in 2019. His best value came in Week 8 (285/3) in Houston. The Titans are 15th in QB defense (20.29 FPPG), with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. A trip back to Oakland should help Carr, and he does have a couple of playmakers in the passing game. His only real attraction in Week 14 is his dirt-cheap salary.
