Favorable Matchup

Alvin Kamara (DK – $9,500/FD – $9,000): I’m sure there were some Fantasy owners in the season-long games that had buyer’s remorse after Kamara delivered his impact game in Week 1. He finished with 141 combined yards with three TDs and nine catches plus a two-point conversion. In the end, Alvin scored 46.1 Fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The Saints had him on the field for 52 of 64 plays (81 percent of the time), which is a great opportunity. The Browns struggled in their first matchup to defend a workhorse back. James Conner gained 192 combined yards with two TDs and five catches while touching the ball 36 times. Kamara can do it all, and he has a great opportunity with Mark Ingram not an option off the bench. A matchup nightmare for Cleveland with a high floor and explosive ceiling. Enjoy one hell of a ride again in Week 2 as I expect a second top score at running back.

Todd Gurley (DK – $9,200/FD – $8,900): In his first game in 2018, Gurley scored 26.70 Fantasy points in DK scoring which fell in line in his 2017 success. Todd finished with 23 touches for 147 combined yards with one TD and three catches while being on the field for 59 of 63 plays run by the Rams. He’ll continue to be a huge part of the Rams’ offense. Last year Todd had 312 combined yards with one TD and ten catches in his two games against the Cardinals. Arizona struggled to defend the Redskins’ RBs in Week 1 (308 combined yards with two TDs and eight catches). Gurley has a nice resume in this matchup while the Cardinals look to have risk defending the RB position out of the gate in 2018. The Rams will threaten the whole field, which is another reason to believe in his upside in the second game of the season. Priced extremely high, which required two TDs or more to pay off.

Christian McCaffrey (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,400): A Fantasy owner should be happy with the usage of McCaffrey in Week 1. The Panthers had him on the field for 57 of 67 plays (85 percent), which is well above his opportunity in 2017. Christian finished with ten rushes for 50 yards plus six catches for 45 yards with nine targets. Last year he had 148 combined yards with ten catches and one TD on 31 touches vs. the Falcons in two games. The Eagles’ RBs had 120 combined yards with two TDs and four catches against Atlanta in Week 1. The Falcons lost their starting middle linebacker and strong safety in Week 1, which is a nice bump for the upside of McCaffrey in this matchup. If you plan on stacking Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in this game, I would make sure to add Christian to your game plan. A chaser game and improved opportunity should bold well for his explosiveness.

James Conner (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,000): In a way, the Steelers made sure to ride Conner hard in Week 1 to stick it to the bargaining power of Le’Veon Bell’s agent. Conner finished with 192 combined yards with two TDs and five catches while receiving 36 touches. His heavy workload shouldn’t be repeatable in Week 2. The Steelers had James on the field for 77 of 84 plays (92 percent), which was a Bell-type opportunity. His salary remains favorable based on his expected chances and the high failure of the Chiefs’ defense against RBs (293 combined yards with one TD and 14 catches). Sure looks like a gift horse while being undervalued as far as salary.

Tevin Coleman (DK – $5,300/FD – $5,900): With Devonta Freeman banged up, Coleman becomes a value play in the daily games. I’m sure he won’t get the whole show with the Falcons working in another back. Tevin gained only 45 combined yards with one TD and one catch in Week 1 while receiving ten touches. In his two games vs. the Panthers in 2017, Coleman had 61 combined yards with one TD and three catches. Carolina held the Cowboys’ RBs to 91 combined yards with one TD and three catches in Week 1. With 20+ touches and a TD, Tevin would be well worth his price point this week. I don’t like his previous resume in this matchup, but I can’t ignore his opportunity. If Freeman can’t go, Coleman has a light shade of green.

Royce Freeman (DK – $4,300/FD – $6,000): Freeman was the RB that moved up a lot in drafts after a nice preseason. He failed to live up to expectation in Week 1 (15/71) after Fantasy owners were beaten by the decision making in playing time by the Broncos’ coaching staff. Denver had him on the field for 29 of 74 plays (39 percent), which paints trust issues in Fantasy owner’s hearts. Royce owners need to take a deep breath as he was the right choice on draft day. He is going to have explosiveness in 2018, and the Broncos’ offense looks to be improved in the passing game. The Raider didn’t shut down Todd Gurley in Week 1 plus they lost one of the better interior run defenders in that game. Tough dance in the daily game, but gut says, “ride him hard this week” as Freeman will be overlooked an under-owned.

Duke Johnson (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,200): Tough weather conditions and a short passing window led to a brutal passing day by Tyrod Taylor. Johnson had plenty of playing time (46 of 89 snaps), but he was only able to touch the ball six times for 25 yards and one catch. Cleveland would like to keep the Saints’ offense off the field, which may be possible based on the poor defensive play by New Orleans. If the Browns chase on the scoreboard, Duke should be active in the passing game. Worth look especially if a Fantasy owner is stacking his matchup. I view him as the top value pass-catcher in Week 2.

 

 

MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN

David Johnson (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,400): The Cardinals’ defense couldn’t get Washington’s offense off the field last week, which led to only 21:52 minutes in offense by Arizona. Johnson had a two-thirds share of the RB touches for the Cardinals in Week 1, which led to 67 combined yards with one TD and five catches while touching the ball 14 times. With an even split of time of possession, David was on pace for about 20 touches. The Rams gave up 145 combined yards with one TD and 13 catches to Oakland’s RBs. Arizona will get the ball to David while expecting to chase on the scoreboard. With the Cardinals’ offense coming out flat in Week 1, I would fade Johnson in this matchup due to questionable upside in TDs. Great player who should have an elite opportunity going forward.

Jay Ajayi (DK – $6,300/FD – $6,800): The Eagles barely used Ajayi in the first half in Week 1. He ended up with 15 runs for 62 yards and two TDs while only being in the field for only 29 of 72 plays run by the Eagles. Jay will have minimal value on the passing downs with his playable value coming from his ability to score TDs. Philly should give him more touches going forward, but he appears to be overpriced for his overall scoring value. Tampa gained only 3.3 yards per rush in Week 1, but they did score two TDs. More failure than upside in the daily games. His best value will come when the Eagles play from the lead.

LeSean McCoy (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,800): Poor QB play is going to be a huge problem for McCoy this year. The Ravens dominated the line of scrimmage on defense leading to only 21 combined yards by LeSean with one catch. Buffalo hooked him when game score got out of line in the second half. McCoy was on the field for 34 of 64 plays run by Buffalo. This week rookie QB Josh Allen will start his hopefully long NFL career. The Chargers held Kansas City’s RBs to 89 combined yards with one catch on 20 touches. Coming into 2018, LA had risk at linebacker which suggested more failure defending the RB position. McCoy tends to be a much better player at home, but a bet on him is more on faith than good decision making.

Lamar Miller (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,800): Miller did a nice job in Week 1. He gained 109 combined yards with one catch while receiving 21 touches. Houston had him on the field for 57 of 74 plays (77 percent), which is a bump in opportunity over 2017. He did get sniped for a goal-line TD by Alfred Blue, which may be an issue going forward. Last year Lamar had one of his better games of the year at home against the Titans (131 combined yards with two TDs and four catches). Tennessee was a top team defending the run last year with success in Week 1 (29/120). Tough to love him based on his career history, but the lack of playmakers on the Texans does point to a high volume opportunity. I’d be more interested at this level if his game were at home.

James White (DK – $4.500/FD – $5,900): The Patriots’ backfield will be in flux heading into this weekend. Rex Burkhead appeared to have a concussion after last week’s game, but he’s trending toward playing. It also sounds like Sony Michel will get onto the field vs. the Jaguars. With a better opportunity, White may have been in play this week against a tough Jaguars’ defense. Tom Brady would look to get the ball out quickly, which would be favorable to their RBs. In Week 1, White finished with 56 combined yards with four catches and one TD. NE had him on the field for 36 of 75 plays. I don’t expect this week’s game to be wide open, which is another reason to fade James. If Burkhead is out and Michel is scheduled to have minimal playing time, I would upgrade his chance for success. For now, I would look elsewhere for upside.

 

 

TOUCH MATCHUP WITH LIMITED UPSIDE

Jamaal Williams (DK – $5,200/DK – $6,100): In the high-stakes market over the last draft weekend, Williams gained a lot of momentum. I saw him get drafted in the fourth round in at least one league, which will be a huge mistake if he isn’t the full-time starter on early downs. In Week 1, Jamaal has 15 rushes for 47 yards with no catches on his two targets. The Packers had him on the field for 37 of 60 plays (62 percent). In his only game against the Vikings last year, Williams had 58 yards rushing with 15 carries. The 49ers’ RBs gained 84 yards on 23 rushes in Week 1 vs. Minnesota. Tough to trust with Aaron Rodgers banged up and not a clean role in the passing game. Fade.

Marshawn Lynch (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,300): Lynch was productive over the first half for the Raiders in Week 1, but game score led to him riding the bench over the last third of the game. He finished with 49 combined yards with one TD and two catches on 13 touches. In his best game against the Broncos in 2017, Marshawn had 110 combined yards with one TD and three catches. Denver held the Seahawks’ RBs to 59 yards on 14 rushes last week. Lynch is much better play at home when the Raiders play from the lead. Avoid.

Rex Burkhead (DK – $4,400/FD – $6,300): The Patriots gave Burkhead 18 rushes in Week 1 leading to only 64 yards. He caught one of his three targets for five yards. Even with 19 touches, Rex was only on the field for 49 percent of the RB snaps in NE. It appeared that he had a concussion issue mid-week, but he’s trending toward playing this week. If Sony Michel is active, Burkhead is going to be a weaker option in all formats. The Jaguars have a top defense, which would push me away from Rex in Week 2 especially with so many questions with his opportunity and playing time. A rebound in his pass-catching chances would help his floor.

 

NEUTRAL

Ezekiel Elliott (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,100): The Cowboys struggled to move the ball in Week 1, which led to only a steady game by Elliott (86 combined yards with one TD and three catches with 18 touches). Ezekiel was on the field for 59 of 64 plays run by the Cowboys giving him the second best RB opportunity as far as snaps in Week 1. In his only game vs. the Giants in 2017, Elliott had 140 combined yards with five catches while touching the ball 29 times. New York gave up 128 combined yards with one TD and six catches to the Jaguars’ RBs last week. Jacksonville did play over half the game without Leonard Fournette. High volume back who lacks the flash and upside while playing in a slower paced offense. Tough to write him off as an option as his salary is a step down from the top two RBs.

Melvin Gordon (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,200): Gordon posted a nice game in Week 1 (166 combined yards with nine catches while receiving 24 touches) against the Chiefs while failing to score the needed TD to match the top RBs. The Chargers had him on the field for 62 of 82 plays (76 percent) while Austin Ekeler continued to steal some of his upside. Ekeler gained 126 combined yards with one TD and five catches while receiving ten touches. The Bills held the Ravens to 3.4 yards per rush, but they gave up three rushing TDs plus six catches for 21 yards to RBs. This matchup may look attractive, but I don’t expect a 30+ point game from Melvin on the road. Buffalo will play better defensively, but LA should still play from the lead due to poor QB play by the Bills. Gordon ranks highly this week, but he needs TDs to deliver on his expected success.

Saquan Barkley (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,900): In his first NFL game, Barkley gained 128 combined yards with one TD and two catches while receiving 20 touches. About 53 percent of his production came on a 68-yard TD run. New York had him on the field for 55 of 71 plays (77 percent), which puts him in the top range of RBs in opportunity. The Cowboys allowed 131 combined yards with one TD and six catches to the Panthers’ RBs in Week 1. As of now, Saquon can’t match the top RBs in the game in explosiveness or opportunity in the passing game, which will require him to score multiple TDs to deliver a winning salary at this price point. Barkley is a beast, and he’ll have multiple impact games in 2018. Viable, but his floor is a step behind the elite options.

Dalvin Cook (DK – $6,500/FD – $6,500): The biggest positive for the value of Cook in 2018 in Week 1 was his opportunity in the passing game (6/55 on seven targets). Dalvin did struggle to find running room on early downs (16/40) while receiving 80 percent of the RB playing time for the Vikings. Green Bay allowed 148 combined yards with eight catches to RBs in Week 1. Moving in the right direction, but the threat of Latavius Murray is just enough for me to stay away for another week. Favorable price point with a rising opportunity should be a good combination going forward.

Kareem Hunt (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,800): It was frustrating to be a Hunt owner last week as the Chiefs went out of their way to avoid giving him the ball at the goal line. In the end, it made sense. Kansas City scored TDs in close while giving defenses something to think about when playing them. We saw last week where the Falcons had no imagination at the goal line. The success of KC in the red zone should be a win for Kareem over the long haul in 2018. He finished with no catches on one target plus 16 rushes for 49 yards. The Chargers game planned to stop him and Travis Kelce, but they didn’t expect to get run over by a rookie QB and the electric Tyreek Hill. Hunt was on the field for 71 percent of the RB plays in Week 1. Pittsburgh allowed 111 combined yards with one TD and two catches to the Browns’ RBs in a bad weather game. I expect Kareem to have more room to make plays this week with Hill drawing more attention in coverage. His matchup looks more steady than explosive, but a wide open game will help his overall value.

Chris Thompson (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,200): The lack of playing time in the preseason gave Fantasy owners no information to base the true value of Thompson heading into 2018. I always shy away from players coming off injuries, but it looks like it’s a mistake in this case. In his first game this year, Thompson looked electric. He gained 128 combined yards with one TD and six catches while receiving only 11 touches. The Redskins had him on the field for 33 of 79 plays while playing from the lead. The Colts struggled to defend Joe Mixon in the passing game (5/54 on seven targets). Based on chances, Chris is overpriced this week. Washington won’t give him many carries on early downs meaning his opportunity to produce a winning score will come in the passing game. Favorable matchup, but his salary requires much more success than expected in Week 2. His higher price point will make him a lower percentage own.

Kenyan Drake (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,600): Drake struggled to find open space against the Titans in Week 1. He gained only 66 combined yards on 17 touches while receiving three catches. Even with his down game, his movements on the field showed explosiveness if he reached daylight at the second level of the defense. The Jets held Detroit’s RBs to 69 combined yards with eight catches in a chaser game. Miami gave Kenyan 46 of 62 plays compared to 18 by Frank Gore. Drake has pass-catching upside with the ability to hit on a long play. He may lose goal-line carries to Gore, which does lower his upside bar a bit. The success of the Jets’ defense in Week 1 lowers my expectations for Kenyan in this matchup, but it would surprise me to see him hit on a long TD.

Adrian Peterson (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,700): Old man Peterson played great in his first game for the Redskins. He gained 166 combined yards with one TD and two catches while receiving 28 touches. Washington had him on the field for 42 of 79 plays while playing from the lead. He ran hard while showing the ability to make plays in space. His role will have the best value in games when the Redskins play from the lead. Last week he made a long play in the passing game than capped off his day. Split back who has a chance to touch the ball close to 20 times when playing from the lead. Possible TD with 80 to 100 yards rushing if the game breaks as expected. His matchup is favorable while splitting touches.

Dion Lewis (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,500): Lewis was the RB to own in Week 1 for the Titans. He gained 110 combined yards with one TD and five catches. Tennessee gave him 21 touches and 49 of 71 snaps. Dion continues to make defenders miss while being a tough runner inside. He is going to get plenty of chances in the Titans’ offense especially when the Titans need to throw. Houston gave up six catches for 49 yards and one TD on 13 targets to the Patriots’ RBs last week. Decent floor with game flow being the key to his playable value.

Carlos Hyde (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,300): Hyde grinded his way to 65 yards in Week 1 with one TD and one catch while touching the ball 23 times. He gained only 2.8 yards per carry and 3.0 yards on his only catch. Cleveland had him on the field for 47 of 89 plays (53 percent) with Duke Johnson winning the runner-up prize (41 snaps). Game score in the second half did take away some chances. Carlos isn’t going to be as active in the passing game as he was in 2017 with the 49ers, which will lower his playable value in many weeks. The Saints allowed only 3.3 yards per rush to Tampa’s ball carriers with the only TD on the ground coming from the QB position. Tough to get excited here, but his touches look favorable.

Jordan Wilkins (DK – $4,400/FD – $6,000): The Colts gave Wilkins 17 touches in his first NFL start. He finished with 61 combined yards with three catches while being in the field for 46 of 82 plays (56 percent). Indy will use him on early downs while Nyheim Hines projects to be the top pass catcher out of the backfield until Marlon Mack is healthy. Washington held David Johnson to 37 yards rushing with a TD in Week 1 on nine carries. With repeated touches and a TD, Jordan should have a chance to deliver 4 X his salary at DraftKings. More of mix option for someone cheating the RB2 position with multiple options in the Million Dollar Maker.

Peyton Barber (DK – $4,000/FD – $6,200): Barber was on the field for 48 of 66 plays against the Saints, which works out to 73 percent of the time. He finished with 19 rushes for 69 yards while receiving no chances in the passing game. The Eagles will play well against the run, but Peyton has a low salary plus he should have some value in the passing game. If he scores a TD, he’ll be well on his way to paying off for his low salary. Let’s just say he’s in my thoughts at this level.

 

INJURY OR PLAYING TIME RISK

Leonard Fournette (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,700): The Jaguars had Fournette on the field in Week 1 for only 21 of their 63 plays. He finished with 55 combined yards with three catches. Leonard was on pace for 20+ Fantasy points in PPR leagues if he scored one TD. Jacksonville expects him to play this week after suffering a minor hamstring issue vs. the Giants. Last year he had 89 combined yards with one TD and two catches on 26 touches on the road vs. the Patriots in the playoffs. The Texans’ RBs gained 156 combined yards with one TD and two catches against New England. Tough to trust in the daily games due to his health concern.

Devonta Freeman (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,800): Freeman missed practice on Wednesday with a lingering knee issue, which sets a bad tone for his value in 2018. In his first game of the year, Devonta left the field early with his injury leading to only 39 snaps out of 70 chances. Atlanta has a very good second RB, so there is no reason to push Freeman against the Panthers. Easy avoid in the daily games even if he plays. His projections will be downgraded even further at the end of the week with more negative news.

T.J. Yeldon (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,200): Yeldon came off the bench last week to gain 69 yards on 17 touches with one TD and three catches. The Jaguars had him on the field for 39 of 63 plays after the injury to Leonard Fournette. Overpriced as a backup option if Fournette plays, but T.J. could be undervalued if given the starting gig. He looked good in the preseason while his passing catching value does raise his floor if given a chance to start.

Derrick Henry (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,200): The bridge jumpers and Henry kickers were in full bloom this week after Dion Lewis stole the show for the Titans in the second half. Henry finished only 31 combined yards with one catch while touching the ball just 11 times. Derrick ended up being on the field for only 20 of 69 plays (29 percent). In his short career, Henry has 321 touches for 1,533 yards with 11 TDs and 25 catches. He’s averaged 4.3 yards per rush and 11.1 yards per catch. Don’t be short-sighted with his talent. Derrick is a power back with the ability to make a big play. Last week he had a 64-yard TD returned in the second half, which would have made his day. In his home game in 2017 against the Texans, Henry gained 109 yards with a TD on 11 touches. Last week Houston had the Patriots to RBs to 107 rushing yards on 27 carries. Tough to trust in the daily games until his role is more defined and consistent from week-to-week.

Bilal Powell (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,200): Powell gained 65 combined yards in Week 1 with one catch on 13 touches. Bilal matched Isaiah Crowell in RB snaps for the Jets in Week 1 (24 of 60 plays – 40 percent). Game score led to minimal passes, which should be an area of strength for Powell early in the year. His split role makes him more of a gamble while offering plenty of downside in the daily games.

Matt Breida (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,100): In his first game in 2018 with a chance to be the lead dog in the run game for the 49ers, Breida managed only 51 combined yards and one catch on 12 touches against a tough Vikings’ defense. Matt lost the RB snap battle 34 to 30 to Alfred Morris. With questionable value in the passing game, Brieda will give Fantasy owners trust issues in all Fantasy formats. His matchup should offer options, but he’ll need a TD to post a mid-teen score in Fantasy points. May surprise if you want to bet on the come while being a 49ers’ fan.

Isaiah Crowell (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,400): In a way, Crowell was the same type of player as Derrick Henry in Week 1. The exception was his long TD (62 yards) wasn’t called back from a penalty. Isaiah finished with 102 yards rushing with two TDs on ten rushes while being the field for 24 of 60 plays. Miami allowed 101 rushing yards with one TD on 26 carries in Week 1 to the Titans’ RBs. Boring type option who needs TDs to deliver playable value in the daily games.

Latavius Murray (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,500): The Vikings gave Murray 11 rushes in Week 1, which led to 42 yards. They had him on the field for 14 of 71 plays. Weak opportunity with the rising star of Dalvin Cook in the starting lineup. Avoid in the daily games.

Austin Ekeler (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,600): Despite being on the field for only 22 of 82 plays run the Chargers in Week 1 and touching the ball ten times, Ekeler gained 126 yards with a TD and five catches against the Chiefs. His value in the passing game makes him intriguing with interesting upside if Melvin Gordon has an injury. Only a flier for some looking to shop at this level as backend filler. It’s tough chasing last week’s stats as well in Fantasy sports.

Philip Lindsay (DK – $4,400/FD – $4,900): Lindsay went from unknown player to the hot waiver wire pick up in Week 1. He drew attention in the high-stakes drafts over the last weekend before opening day after he moved to number three on the Broncos’ depth chart at RB. The Broncos had him on the field for 26 of 74 plays. Phillip was the hot hand vs. the Seattle, which led to 102 combined yards with two catches and one TD on 17 touches. I like his success, but I still believe in Royce Freeman as the top back in Denver. Work in progress while being on the upward path. This week the Raiders will at least know his name.

Kerryon Johnson (DK – $4,200/FD – $6,100): In his first NFL games, Johnson was on the field for 16 of 70 plays. He gained 37 yards on eight touches while receiving three catches. Tough player to trust until he earns the bulk of playing time over LeGarrette Blount. Game score wasn’t his friend in his last game.

Alfred Morris (DK – $3,600/FD – $5,800): Morris delivered only 38 yards rushing on 12 carries in his first game against tough Vikings’ run defense. San Fran had him on the field for 34 of 66 plays (53 percent). Grinder back who needs to score to be viable at this level. The Lions did allow 177 rushing yards to the Jets on 28 carries with two TDs. Boring smell with playing time concern, but I can’t dismiss that he scores a TD.