FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP)
Drew Brees (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,800): The lack of defense by the Saints looks like a great win for Drew Brees and the New Orleans’ offensive players going forward. In Week 1, Brees completed 82 percent of his 45 passes for 439 yards and three TDs. Drew bounced out of the starting gate pointing to 5,000+ yards in 2018 with a nice rebound in his passing TDs. Brees tends to be a lot better option at home. The Browns’ defense had four sacks and three Ints in a rain game at home, but they allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt and 4.5 yards per rush. This matchup is favorable for Brees with a high floor and exciting ceiling if Cleveland can push the issue on the scoreboard. His only negative is his higher salary.
Ben Roethlisberger (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,600): The Steelers’ offensive line had issue blocking for Roethlisberger last week. The pressure by the Browns’ defense led to four sacks and three Ints. Ben did have success when he had time to throw (335 yards with one TD) while playing in bad weather. Last year he passed for 252 yards and one TD on the road against the Chiefs. Kansas City played from the lead last week, but they did have issues defending the Chargers’ receivers (424 yards with three TDs). Philip Rivers completed eight passes for over 20 yards. Roethlisberger does enter this week with a slight elbow issue. This game sets up to be high scoring giving Big Ben a chance of being the top play of the week at QB.
Jared Goff (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,400): Goff delivered only a steady game in Week 1 (233 yards with two TDs) while completing one pass over 20 yards. The Rams ran the ball well, and they are going to have a balanced attack in many games. LA has talent at WR plus Todd Gurley can turn a short pass into a long TD. In his two games vs. the Cardinals in 2017, Jared passed for 455 yards with four combined TDs. Arizona had a tough time defending RBs out of the backfield in Week 1 (6/133/1) while allowing 255 passing yards with two TDs. The Rams have an upside offense that should have growth in Week 2. Worth a look thanks to the explosive talent on the roster.
Tyrod Taylor (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,600): The Browns can’t be excited with the right arm of Tyrod Taylor in his first start with the Browns. The weather was part of his failure as well. He completed only 15 of his 40 passes for 197 yards and one TD. His game was saved by his legs (8/77/1). With more struggles, Baker Mayfield could jump quickly into the starting lineup. The Saints’ defense fell on their face in Week 1 against what was considered a poor Tampa team. New Orleans allowed 453 combined yards with five TDs to Ryan Fitzpatrick. One thing we know about this game, New Orleans should score. Their success on the scoreboard should help Taylor in the box score. A very good matchup with the talent in the receiving game to finish with an excellent game in the daily space.
Matt Ryan (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,100): Ryan struggled with his rhythm in Week 1 vs. the Eagles leading to 251 yards and no TDs. He’ll play five of the next six games at home, which will help his rise up the QB rankings. I like his weapons, and Julio Jones (10/169) looked the stud WR part. Last season Ryan passed for 630 combined yards with three TDs in two games against the Panthers. Last week Carolina wasn’t challenged in the deep passing game by the quick-releasing Dak Prescott. The Panthers held the Cowboys to 170 yards and no TDs. Matty Ice looks under price here, but he needs his offensive coordinator to get some balls in his play calling the red zone. Winning resume in this matchup in yards, but he needs to up his game in TDs to post the desired winning score in the daily games. Julio tends to play well in this matchup, which gives Ryan the green light this week.
MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP)
Aaron Rodgers (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,700): The Bears had Rodgers on the mat last week, but he rose from the dead to deliver a great comeback win with 286 passing yards and three TDs despite playing on one leg. Aaron has a bad injury, but the Packers haven’t released his status or updated his health as of Wednesday. The Vegas betting line is up, which tells me that Rodgers is going to play. Last year Aaron suffered his collarbone injury vs. the Vikings in Week 6 while seeing minimal playing time. He missed the second game as well. Minnesota held Jimmy Garoppolo to a 45.5 percent completion rate leading to 261 yards with one TD and three Ints. Rodgers is a gamer, but he does have early exit risk if he takes one bad hit. When you add his matchup, I will look elsewhere for upside at the QB position in Week 2.
Patrick Mahomes (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,500): The Chargers came into Week 1 with a plan to take away Travis Kelce and the run game, which would force Mahomes to challenge their talented secondary. LA had no answer for Tyreek Hill helping Patrick to a special start to his NFL career (256 passing yards with four TDs). He completed six passes for 20 yards or more with one gaining over 40 yards. HIs completion rate (55.6) came in short along with his passing attempts (27). The Steelers held the Browns’ WRs to nine catches for 161 yards and one TD on 22 targets. I’d love to see follow through in Week 2, but Mahomes will have tougher sledding on the road in Pittsburgh. Kansas City kept the Chargers off balanced at the goal line, which is another positive for the upside in passing TDs for Patrick over the long haul in 2018.
Dak Prescott (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800): Prescott didn’t play well in Week 1 (170 yards passing with no TDs) while missing some open receivers. He continues to be a dink and dunk passer without an explosive option in the deep passing game. Last year he had one impact game on the road vs. the Giants (332/3) while gained 292 combined yards with one TD at home. New York held Blake Bortles to 218 combined yards with one TD and one Int in Week 1. The Giants should be improved on defense, and Dallas will pressure QB. I don’t expect a high scoring game and Dak lacks the skill set to bomb his way to a winning score. He’s a ball control QB with some value in the run game. Pass until his WRs show a spark.
Derek Carr (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,600): Carr used his TE and RBs to help him gain 303 passing yards in Week 1, but he didn’t throw a TD with three Ints against an improved Rams’ secondary. Last year he passed for 396 yards and three TDs in a game and half against the Broncos. Seattle showed that the Denver has risk in their secondary (298 yards and three TDs) while gaining over 20 yards on four plays with two leading to 40+ yards. He desperately needs Amari Cooper to have a pulse. Derek doesn’t have a favorable matchup while needing a lot to prove in Week 2. I like his head coach, and I expect the Raiders to surprise in this matchup.
Eli Manning (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,500): Week 1 will go down as a lost week for Eli Manning against the top pass defense in the league. He finished with 224 yards and no TDs while tossing one ball to the other team. The positive out of this matchup was upside and explosiveness of Odell Beckham. CB Jalen Ramsey was beat on many plays, and Eli had a couple of chance to make big scoring plays. Dallas will pressure the QB with success against Manning in 2017 (448 passing yards and one TD in two games). Last week the Cowboys held Cam Newton to 161 passing yards and no TDs. Total against the grain play, but Beckham and his secondary receivers give him playable upside while being a low percentage own.
BAD MATCHUP (AVOID)
Tom Brady (DK – $6,500/FD – $8,500): Well, Brady looked like himself in Week 1 leading to 277 yards and three TDs while completing 66.7 percent of his passes. He relied on Rob Gronkowski (7/123), Phillip Dorsett (7/66/1), and James White (4/38/1) for his success. The Jaguars held Eli Manning to 6.1 yards per pass attempts with no TDs and one Int. Last year in the playoffs at home against Jacksonville, Brady passes for 290 yards and two TDs. The Jaguars play well defending QBs and WRs, which will push New England to a short passing game. A bad matchup with more risk than reward.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,800): A Fantasy owner has to be exited with the early success of the Bucs’ passing game with a backup QB. Fitzpatrick proved to be a great value in Week 1 after posting the best QB score (453 combined yards with five TDs). As great as it looks, Ryan did only attempt 28 passes. The Eagles held Matt Ryan to 251 yards and no TDs last week while struggling with Julio Jones (10/169). Philly will pressure the QB, which takes away some of his needed time to make deep plays. I don’t expect DeSean Jackson to play this week, which will open up chances for the TE position. Possible follow through while be a much lower percentage own. His matchup does look unfavorable.
Ryan Tannehill (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,200): Tannehill passed for 230 yards with two TDs and two Ints in his first start in 2018. He completed 71.4 percent of his passes while hitting only a 75-yard TD to Kenny Stills. Miami would like to run the ball, which limits his passing attempts (28 in Week 1). The Jets’ defense pressured Matt Stafford into four Ints and a couple of defensive scores. They allowed 286 yards passing yards with one TD. I don’t trust Ryan in this matchup especially with New York playing with a rookie QB while expecting to run the ball in this game.
Sam Darnold (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,600): After a bad Int to start the game, Darnold flashed his future upside in the first half against the Lions. Game score got out of line after a couple of defensive scores and a long rushing TD leading to short passing attempts (21). Sam finished with 198 yards and two TDs with strength in his completion rate (76.4). Miami held the Titans’ QBs to 220 yards and no TDs with three Ints. I’m not ready to ride Darnold in the daily games against a below par offense.
Sam Bradford (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,300): The lack of WR options to stretch the field was a problem for Bradford in Week 1 against the Redskins. He passed for only 153 yards and no TDs against Washington. The Rams allowed 303 yards with no TDs and three Ints to the Raiders. The positive for Sam in this matchup is that the Cardinals should be trailing creating more passing chances. David Johnson has pass-catching upside, and Bradford is a veteran QB. If you are shopping at the back end of the player pool at QB, he’s worth a look even in a poor matchup.
INJURY RISK
Marcus Mariota (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,000): Mariota suffered a right elbow injury last week putting his status in limbo mid-week. He lost his top TE for the season last week with plenty of questions with the talent and upside at WR behind Corey Davis. Without digging deeper, I’ll put him in the avoid column in Week 2.
NEUTRAL (MME GPP)
Philip Rivers (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,400): Game score led to Rivers chasing on the scoreboard early, which led to 51 attempted passes. He finished with 424 yards and three TDs with eight completions over 20 yards. The Chargers will throw to the RB plus they have three viable options at WR. Last week the Bills were blown out by the Ravens (47-3), but they only allowed 3.4 yards per rush and 6.8 yards per pass attempt, In the end, Buffalo’s defense didn’t play as bad as the final score dictated. Their offense gained only 153 yards with two turnovers, which was a bigger part of the problem. I see more of a ball control offense by LA with game score being more competitive. More of a trap than an opportunity in the daily games.
Cam Newton (DK – $6,600/FD – $8,200): Other than the rushing game (13/58/1), Newton was a bust in Week 1. He passed for only 161 yards with no completions over 20 yards. The Cowboys do have talent on their defensive line, which was an issue for the injury-depleted offensive line in Carolina. Last season Cam came up empty passing the ball in his two games against the Falcons (317 combined passing yards with one TD). He did run for 145 yards with a rushing TD. Atlanta lost their starting middle linebacker and starting strong safety last week giving Newton a better window to make plays. The Falcons should score in this game forcing Cam to chase on the scoreboard. The loss Greg Olsen takes away a weapon and an edge at a position. I don’t like his 2017 history in this matchup, which would push me elsewhere at QB in Week 2.
Kirk Cousins (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,500): In his first game for the Vikings, Cousins turned in a nice steady game (270 combined yards with two TDs). He showed a willingness to throw to the RB position while failing to make many plays downfield (two completions over 20 yards). The Packers’ pass defense held Mitchell Trubisky to 171 yards with no TDs in Week 1 while allowing only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Before the season, I liked Green Bay as a sleeper defense. The Vikings have talent at WR plus pass-catching options at RB and TE. The health of Aaron Rodgers, which may lead to a more conservative game plan by the Packers in this matchup keeping game score under control. More steady than explosive.
Deshaun Watson (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,400): Watson failed to live up to his 2017 success in Week 1 (216 combined yards with one TD and one Int) against the Patriots who had all summer to prepare for him. At times, Deshaun flashed his previous success while lacking depth in his options in the passing game. Last year Watson beat the Titans’ defense for 283 yards and four TDs at home. Tennesee gave up 8.2 yards per pass attempt in Week 1 to the Dolphins (230 passing yards and two TDs), but 75 yards came on one long TD. I need to see one more game from Watson before taking him back to the daily dance plus he needs a healthy Will Fuller back in the starting lineup. A fade for me in this week.
Andrew Luck (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,200): The lack of defense in Indianapolis is going to be a big win for the passing chances for Luck in 2018. In his first game this year, Andrew attempted 53 passes leading to 319 passing yards with two TDs. He finished with a high completion rate (73.6) while spreading the ball around. Washington held Sam Bradford to 153 yards with no TDs and one TD. T.Y. Hilton will draw CB Josh Norman in coverage, which will take away some of the explosiveness in the deep passing game. Luck will use his TEs and second receiving options to battle his way to a decent game in this matchup.
Matt Stafford (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,700): The Lions’ offense was a disaster in Week 1. The Jets’ coaching staff out game planned the Lions, which led to Stafford taking a beating on the scoreboard and on the field. He finished 286 yards with one TD and four Ints while gaining only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The 49ers’ defense should be improved in 2018 with a neutral showing on the road against Kirk Cousins (244 passing yards and two TDs). I like the direction of WR Kenny Golladay in Week 1, and Detroit does have talent at WR, but I’m going to avoid on the road with Stafford not looking to be 100 percent entering the game.
Alex Smith (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100): Smith continues to be a winning game manager even with a new home in the NFL. In his first game with Washington, he passed for 255 yards and two TDs while completing 70 percent of his passes. Most of his success came from the RB position (8/133.1) and TE (5/57/1). The Colts’ pass defense does have risk, and they did allow 8.7 yards per pass attempt in Week 1 to the Bengals. Andy Dalton finished with 243 yards and two TDs. I expect the Redskins to have success both running and passing the ball leading to a balanced attack. Indy should at least force the issue on the scoreboard. Viable based on matchup.
Jimmy Garaoppolo (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,300): The excitement for the upside of Garoppolo was pushed back to Week 2 after struggling in his matchup vs. the Vikings (261 yards with one TD and three Ints) while completing only 45.5 percent of his passes. Last week the Jets had a big quarter defensively, which led to a run-oriented game plan over the last quarter of the game. Sam Darnold finished with 198 yards and two TDs. He attempted only 21 passes with a high completion rate (76.2). Detroit has one top cornerback, but he’ll be wasted on a second tier WR in this matchup. I expect a much better game by Garoppolo this week giving him a pulse in the daily games.
Case Keenum (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700): Despite throwing three Ints, Keenum played relatively well in his first start for the Broncos. He passed for 329 yards and three TDs with seven completions over 20 yards and one going for 20 yards or more. He showed great chemistry with Emmanuel Sanders (10/135/1) while Demaryius Thomas (6/63/1) became relevant again under his new QB. Oakland held Jared Goff to a short completion rate (54.5) while allowing 233 passing yards with two TDs. The Broncos’ WRs have talent and upside, which gives Case potential to pay off in this game.
Nick Foles (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,300): Foles was a shell of his Super Bowl self in Week 1. He passed for only 117 yards with no TDs against the Falcons. He gained a measly 3.4 yards per pass attempt. The Bucs allowed 439 yards and three TDs to Drew Brees in a shootout game last week. Philly has talent at TE, but they’re missing their top WR, and Mike Wallace came up empty in his first game for the Eagles. Tough to trust this offense even in a favorable matchup on the road. Possible QB cheat if a daily Fantasy owner is looking to hook him up with Zach Ertz.
Blake Bortles (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,500): There wasn’t much excitement in the Jaguars’ passing attack in Week 1 (176 yards with one TD) especially after the injury to Leonard Fournette. Blake did run for 42 yards on four carries. Last year Bortles passed for 293 yards and one TD against the Patriots. New England held Deshaun Watson to 216 combined yards in Week 1 with one TD. New England will give up yards in the passing game. More of a gamble than a favorable upside play.
