The NASCAR XFINITY Series has some short track action on tap this weekend with a trip to Richmond Raceway, and not only is Friday night’s ToyotaCare 250 the second short track race in a row for the series, it is also the second leg of the Dash 4 Cash.
For those that aren’t familiar with the Dash 4 Cash, all you really need to know for DFS purposes is that it prevents any Cup Series drivers from participating in the race. Obviously, this changes the trajectory of several drivers as Top 5 contenders suddenly become potential dominators while Top 10 and Top 15 drivers have a much better shot at a surprise Top 5.
Throw in the fact that there are already more dominator points available for a short track event, and you will definitely want to have a little more balance at the top of your lineups this weekend. When Kyle Busch was in the field, building around Kyle and a bunch of cheaper drivers was effective, but no driver has ever been able to dominate the XFINITY Series to the level he has. A one-dominator strategy isn’t going to cut it this weekend.
Qualifying can always add some wrinkles to the equation, especially if one of the top XFINITY regulars ends up starting in the back. You can always message me at @BPolking after the starting lineup with any additional questions or driver suggestions, but in the meantime, check out my top targets for the ToyotaCare 250 at Richmond Raceway.
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Must-Own Drivers
Christopher Bell ($12,700)
Fresh off his second win of 2019, you can expect Bell to add to his impressive numbers this weekend. He has led laps in every race this year, leading 50-plus four times and 100-plus twice. Bells has also been outstanding at Richmond, posting a 2.7 average finish in three starts and sweeping both races a year ago. Not only did he win both races, but he led 120 laps in the spring and 67 laps in the fall. He should be worth every penny.
Tyler Reddick ($12,100)
Reddick finished 11th and seventh in the two races at Richmond last year, but the 2018 series champ has found another gear this season. Through seven races, he owns a 5.6 average finish and five Top 5 efforts. Reddick has also led laps in six of the seven races this year, leading double-digit laps in three straight. With no Cup drivers in the field, he becomes a serious threat for a bunch of dominator points.
Justin Allgaier ($11,000)
He appeared to have the field covered last weekend at Bristol before suffering a tire issue, but another trip to a short track is another chance for Allgaier to pile up some dominator points. He led a race-high 157 laps in the spring race here in 2017, and he led 37 laps last fall before being involved in a wreck. Allgaier has a legitimate chance to be the top scorer at DraftKings this weekend.
Difference Makers and Value Plays
Cole Custer ($11,600)
While he hasn’t dominated a race to the level of a Christopher Bell, Custer has led laps in five of the seven races this year, leading at least 25 laps three times. He also led 43 laps and finished sixth at Richmond last spring. Custer isn’t my favorite to win Friday night, but he’s a guy who always has a chance to run up front and make some noise. I love him as a potential pivot to the obvious dominators.
Chase Briscoe ($10,100)
Briscoe carries plenty of momentum in Richmond, and his fourth-place finish at Bristol last weekend was his third straight Top 5 and fifth straight Top 10. Thanks in large part to several mediocre qualifying efforts, he has been a favorite cash play of mine, but he’s worth considering no matter where he starts. He’s running that well these days.
John Hunter Nemechek ($9,800)
He’s been having a solid season in the No. 23, notching five Top 10s and a couple of Top 5s through the first seven races. His driving style seems to work well at short tracks, and Nemechek is coming off a fifth-place effort at Bristol last weekend. He also led 36 laps at Richmond last spring. I think he has a shot at a Top 5 Friday night, and Nemechek could be a sneaky source of dominator points.
Ryan Sieg ($8,600)
Sieg has been one of my favorite plays all year, especially in cash lineups. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th all year, compiling a 9.1 average finish through the first seven races. Sieg is also gaining an average of 6.0 spots per race, qualifying 14-th or worse in every race since Daytona. If he starts around 15th or worse again this weekend, you should be able to count on him for 30-plus fantasy points.
Michael Annett ($8,400)
He’s been rock solid all season, posting a 7.6 average finish and five Top 10s in seven starts. In fact, Annett’s worst finish in 2019 is a 13th-place effort, and he finished with a positive place differential in all but one race. The consistency really comes in handy in cash lineups, especially if he qualifies closer towards the middle of the pack.
Noah Gragson ($8,100)
His solid season continued with a ninth-place run at Bristol, and Gragson has yet to finish worse than 13-th this year. Granted, he hasn’t shown Top 5 speed with any type of consistency, but he has a chance to break out this weekend. His XFINITY debut came at Richmond last spring, and Gragson immediately made his presence felt, leading 10 laps and finishing second. He could have some dominator potential Friday night.
Kaz Grala ($7,900)
He will get his second start for Richard Childress Racing this weekend, and don’t let his 18th-place finish at Texas full you. He found trouble late in the race, but he ran as high as third and had an average running position off 11th. He also spent 97.5 percent of the laps in the Top 10. Grala is going to have a shot at a Top 10 Friday night, so make sure to keep him mind heading into qualifying.
Riley Herbst ($7,700)
Herbst is set to make his second career start in the XFINITY Series this weekend, and he will do so behind the wheel of the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 machine. His other start also came for JGR, and Herbst delivered a sixth-place finish at Iowa last year. You know he will have the equipment to make plenty of noise, and based on his debut, he has the talent to take advantage of it. Herbst has a ton of upside at this price.
Zane Smith ($7,300)
He is back in the No. 8 for JR Motorsports this weekend, and Smith delivered an 11th-place finish for the team at Bristol last week and was running in the Top 10 at Las Vegas before he was taken out in a wreck. This is a solid price for a driver with Top 10 upside, especially if he has a little place differential upside.
David Starr ($6,800)
Starr’s numbers aren’t flashy, but the veteran knows how to stay out of trouble and has equipment that usually makes it to the finish. He owns a 22.7 average finish in 2019, and he is gaining an average of 6.9 spots per race. Starr has gained at least seven spots in five of the seven races this year, and he has yet to finish a race with a negative place differential. He should be a safe source of cap relief.
Ray Black Jr. ($6,500)
He’s having a decent year given his equipment, and Black heads to Richmond with four finishes of 18th or better in the last five races and a 21.4 average finish overall in 2019. He also has a history of exploiting the place differential category at Richmond, posting a 22.5 average finish and an average place differential of +7.0 in four starts here. If Black qualifies outside the Top 25 Friday night, don’t hesitate to use him as a cheaper play.
Sleeper Specials
Mason Diaz ($5,700)
He will make just his second-ever XFNITY start this weekend, but his only other start in the series also came at Richmond. Diaz managed an 19th-place finish in that race, and Friday night, he will be driving for a BrandonBilt Motorsports team that has been contending for Top 15s all season. Diaz could be a low-priced gem at Richmond.
Mike Harmon ($4,900)
Harmon is lucky to crack the Top 25, but he’s super cheap and moves forward on race day. He has started outside the Top 30 in every race this year, but he has yet to finish with a negative place differential, and he has finished inside the Top 30 in five straight. Harmon is gaining an average of 6.1 spots per race overall, and he can give you around 15 fantasy points for next to nothing to cost wise.
