The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is making a stop at Sonoma Raceway this weekend, and with the starting lineup for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 now set, we can finally start to finalize our DFS lineups for Fanduel.
While I won’t completely ignore the laps led category this weekend, I can tell you that I won’t go out of my way to roster multiple drivers who need to lead laps to bolster their point totals. Not only does Fanduel award just 0.1 point for a lap led, but with just 90 laps on tap at a track where the lead tends to cycle between drivers because of pit strategy, I have a hard paying up for more than one driver starting up in the Top 10.
Instead, I think you need to focus on building a balanced lineup with at least four drivers who have a shot at either challenging for a Top 5 or who can challenge for a Top 10 and gain at least 15-plus spots. Obviously, drivers who can contend for Top 5s who are starting deeper in the field carry a little more weight because of the added place differential potential.
An overall focus on finishing position should be a winning strategy, and when you can work in some differential points, make sure to do so. Owning one high-priced driver who can compete for the win and lead laps in fine, but I would not roster more than one expensive driver starting up front. I don’t think you will get a good return on your investment.
Check out all of my top DFS picks for Fanduel for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway, and good luck cashing in at the first road course event of 2019.
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Must-Own Drivers
Kevin Harvick ($14,500)
As I mentioned in the introduction, I don’t want to make a habit of paying a premium for drivers who have to lead a decent amount of laps to boost their score. After he qualified 23rd, that is not the case with Harvick. Armed with one of the best road racing resumes in the sport, including a win and a second-place finish in the last two races at Sonoma, and a bunch of place differential upside, he looks like a safe bet to finish among the top scorers.
Clint Bowyer ($12,000)
Bowyer boasts an impressive 4.8 average finish over the last five road course races, and he has 10 Top 10s and eight Top 5s in 13 career starts at Sonoma, finishing second and third in his two here with his current Stewart-Haas Racing team. Looking at practice speeds, Bowyer may have the best car over longer runs this weekend, and starting 14th, he has some room to pad his score with place differential points. He’s a tremendous value at $12,000.
Kurt Busch ($11,000)
Busch might be my favorite play this weekend. He has been the steadiest performer at the road courses, logging nine Top 10s in the last 10 races to go with a series-best 6.4 average finish. He also has eight straight finishes of 12th or better at Sonoma. Starring 16th, he has a decent amount of differential points available but is still close enough to the front to comfortable challenge for a strong finish. For just $11,000, he is hard to pass up.
Cash Plays
Martin Truex Jr. ($14,000)
He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Truex has been locked in at the road courses. He has led laps in the last six road course events, leading 20-plus laps three times. He also has two wins and a second-place finish in the last four races alone, and he was leading heading into the final turns at the Roval last fall before he was turned by Jimmie Johnson. Starting eighth with a car that was fast in practice, Truex is positioned to earn points in every scoring category Plus, his road course prowess should make him a popular pick.
Brad Keselowski ($12,500)
Keselowski has been a staple at the front of the field at the road courses lately, leading the second-most laps over the last eight races and leading at least 17 laps five times in that span. More importantly, he also has plenty of place differential points to earn after he qualified 22nd. Keselowski is positioned to be an all-around DFS force.
Erik Jones ($9,700)
I know it has been hard to trust Jones this year, but on the heels of a 32nd-place qualifying effort, he has a huge ceiling and is a lock to be a popular play. He finished seventh at Sonoma last year and cracked the Top 10 in three of his five road course starts. Even if he just challenges for a Top 15, he’s going to post a strong point total, and his price tag won’t break the bank.
Austin Dillon ($7,800)
He isn’t a great road racer, but Dillon has been able to avoid major trouble, and he has a lot of place differential upside this weekend. He qualified 26th, but he has an 18.0 average finish in five starts at Sonoma, gaining at least nine spots three times. Dillon should be a relatively safe play this weekend, and his price tag should help you build a balanced cash lineup.
GPP Specials
Kyle Busch ($15,000)
The bad news is that he’s expensive and doesn’t have a lot of differential points available after qualifying. The good news is that Busch could still go out and lead the most laps in a win. I expect most people to avoid Busch and go with a more balanced approach, but you will want to be cautious about completely ignoring the top driver in the series.
Chase Elliott ($13,500)
While I am not loading up on drivers starting up front, Elliott is on the short list of drivers who I will make an exception for. He starts fourth, and after posting a series-best 3.7 average finish in the three road races last year, I love his chances of leading a chunk of laps and pushing for the win. He could offset his lack of place differential upside with a dominant performance.
Matt Tifft ($5,500)
Tifft is a bit of an unknown as he prepares for his first road course start at the Cup level, but with four finishes of fourth or better in six road races in the XFINITY Series, he has some potential, especially after qualifying 28th. If you are hunting for some cap relief, Tifft could be worth a roll of the dice.
Parker Kligerman ($3,500)
Drivers like Kligerman from low-budget teams are risky in Fanduel’s scoring, but he has completed 98.7 percent of the laps in six starts this year, gaining an average of 6.2 spots per race. More importantly, he has finished in the Top 25 in both of his road course starts at the Cup level, finishing 23rd at Sonoma last year. Starting 29th, Kligerman has a chance to gain a few spots and provide a positive point total for next to nothing. If you want a bunch of cap space, he’s worth a flier.
Starting Lineup for the 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350
1. Kyle Larson
2. William Byron
3. Joey Logano
4. Chase Elliott
5. Daniel Suarez
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Kyle Busch
8. Martin Truex Jr.
9. Ryan Blaney
10. Chris Buescher
11. Jimmie Johnson
12. Alex Bowman
13. Michael McDowell
14. Clint Bowyer
15. Aric Almirola
16. Kurt Busch
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
18. David Ragan
19. Matt DiBenedetto
20. Ryan Preece
21. Ryan Newman
22. Brad Keselowski
23. Kevin Harvick
24. Paul Menard
25. Daniel Hemric
26. Austin Dillon
27. Corey Lajoie
28. Matt Tifft
29. Parker Kligerman
30. Bubba Wallace
31. Ty Dillon
32. Erik Jones
33. Justin Haley
34. Cody Ware
35. Landon Cassill
36. JJ Yeley
37. Kyle Weatherman
38. Reed Sorenson
