Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the next stop for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, but Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 will be anything but another race at a cookie-cutter, mile-and-a-half track.
With NASCAR rolling out its new rules package in full force for the first time, nobody is really sure what to expect when the cars hit the track this weekend. Obviously, this makes things a little difficult when you start to build your NASCAR DFS lineups at Fanduel, but everyone is working with the same unknowns.
From what drivers and teams have been saying, the reduced horsepower of this rules package allows drivers to hold the throttle wide open for longer stretches. It is also going to bring the draft into play. That leads us to a couple of important questions. One, will the lead be changing hands lap after lap as drivers slingshot past one another? Two, will the pack be so tight that we see the big wrecks we’ve become accustomed to at Daytona and Talladega?
The good news is that we don’t have to stress too much about the first question in Fanduel’s scoring system. With only 0.1 point awarded per lap led, a driver really has to dominate in order to carry a lineup by themselves. You don’t have to go out of your way to hunt for drivers who will lead laps.
The second question is a much different story. If this package does to lead to higher attrition rates, the place differential category is going to become even more important than it already is at Fanduel. Not to mention the fact that drivers are awarded points for laps completed, so if you roster someone starting up front that wrecks out early, you can kiss your chances of cashing goodbye.
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Must-Own Drivers
Brad Keselowski ($14,000)
You will have a tough time finding a safer pick this weekend than Keselowski. He is the only driver who has finished in the Top 10 in the last seven races at Las Vegas, and his 3.4 average finish in that stretch is tops in the series. Keselowski also leads all drivers with three wins in those seven races, and he has led at least 75 laps twice in his last three starts here. Even if he doesn’t have a bunch of place differential upside, he’s still a solid bet to finish as one of the top scorers Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. ($13,500)
He has been on a roll at Las Vegas, piling up four Top 5s in the last five races here. He led 150 laps in a win here in 2017, and he finished third in the fall race last season after leading 96 laps. His ability to contend for wins and lead a ton of laps in the process makes him worth considering no matter where he ends up qualifying.
Joey Logano ($13,000)
Logano is another driver who offers that blend of reliability and upside that you need atop your lineups. He has never finished worse than 12th in seven starts at Las Vegas with Team Penske, posting a 6.1 average finish in that stretch. Logano has also led at least 25 laps in five of his last six starts here, leading more than 40 laps four times. With a great finish and some laps led points almost a sure thing, he’s in play no matter where he starts Sunday.
Value Plays
Ryan Blaney ($12,000)
Las Vegas has always been one of Blaney’s strongest tracks. He has an 8.4 average finish in five Cup starts here, and he has finished seventh or better in his last four starts. Blaney logged Top 5 finishes in both Vegas races a year ago, and after leading 41 laps at Atlanta last weekend, it looks like he is only getting better. I would be surprised to see him challenge for the win Sunday.
Aric Almirola ($10,000)
He piled up solid finishes at the 1.5-mile ovals all of last season, closing 2018 with five straight Top 10s. He had seven Top 10s in the 11 races at mile-and-a-half tracks overall, including finishes of 10th and sixth in the two races at Las Vegas. Granted, I probably won’t jump be on him if he wins the pole like he did last weekend at Atlanta, but don’t undervalue Almirola’s consistency in this scoring system if he has some place differential upside.
Erik Jones ($9,100)
Jones finished 11th or better in eight of the 11 races at mile-and-a-half tracks a year ago, and he kept the momentum going last weekend at Atlanta with an eighth-place run. With a Top 10 floor and Top 5 upside, I’m surprised to see Jones priced below $10,000 on Fanduel this weekend. I’ll gladly take advantage of that price tag, especially if he starts outside the Top 10.
Paul Menard ($7,500)
Qualifying will play a role, but Menard is looking like a potential bargain this weekend. He has an 11.4 average finish in the last 10 races here, gaining an average of 9.9 spots per race. He also has eight Top 15s in that same stretch, including a pair of Top 10 finishes last year. Cross your fingers that he ends up starting in the middle of the pack.
Sleeper Specials
Chris Buescher ($6,000)
Buescher made a lot of people some money at both DFS sites last weekend, climbing from 30th to finish ninth at Atlanta. Assuming he has another lackluster qualifying effort, a similar performance could be on tap Sunday. Buescher finished 15th in both races at Las Vegas a year ago, gaining 13 spots in both of those starts. He could have a lot of upside for the price.
Ryan Preece ($5,000)
He didn’t end up with a great result at Atlanta, but before heavy contact on pit road ruined his day, Preece had worked his way into the Top 10 after starting outside the Top 20. This is a bargain price for a driver who should have no problem finishing in the Top 20, and if he starts in the back half of the field, Preece will be a bargain. Pairing the JTG Daugherty drivers could be a great way to load up the top of your lineups.
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