The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads back to the Irish Hills this weekend for the second race of the season at Michigan International Speedway. The two-mile, D-shaped oval will host Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400, and after seeing how the 2019 rules package impacted the racing here in June, we will have some interesting decisions to make when building NASCAR DFS lineups at DraftKings.
In theory, the reduced-horsepower package was supposed to bring the draft into play down Michigan’s long straightaways, creating plentiful passing opportunities and exciting racing. Instead, track position and clean air proved to be critical, and Joey Logano was able to lead 163 of the 203 laps from the pole on his way to the win.
The rules package did lead to “closer” racing, but despite what many of NASCAR’s media puppets will preach, closer racing does not always mean better racing. This closer racing did cause the fastest laps to be dispersed more evenly, and Kevin Harvick led all drivers with just 19 fastest laps in the June race.
Of course, teams always make strides throughout the year, so there is no guarantee that it will be another one-sided affair this weekend. However, it is worth noting that Kyle Busch put a similar beating on the field earlier this year at Auto Club Speedway, the other two-mile oval on the schedule. If a couple of studs end up qualifying up front, I am going to have a tough time not building around them in a majority of my lineups.
As always, come back after qualifying for the latest driver picks and updated lineup strategies. In the meantime, check out a closer look at my favorite options at DraftKings for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
Must-Own Drivers
Kyle Busch ($12,400)
Busch hasn’t always had the best luck at Michigan, but he has reeled off three straight Top 5s and five straight Top 10s at the track. He has also led double-digit laps and recorded double-digit fastest laps in three of the five races in that span. Throw in a dominant win at Auto Club earlier this year, and Busch should be one of your go-to building blocks again Sunday.
Kevin Harvick ($11,800)
He has shown the ideal blend of reliability and upside at Michigan, finishing in the Top 5 in seven of his 11 starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing and logging five finishes of either first or second. Harvick has led double-digit laps in seven of those starts, leading a race-high 108 laps in a win in the August race last year. He led 15 laps in the June race earlier this year while also logging a race-high 19 fastest laps. Pencil him in for some a great finish and his share of dominator points.
Joey Logano ($10,200)
Logano has been the model of consistency at Michigan since moving to Team Penske, logging Top 10s in 12 of his 13 starts here. More importantly, he clobbered the field in the June race earlier this year, sitting on the pole and leading 163 of the 203 laps on his way to his third career Michigan win. Logano should deliver a strong finish regardless, and if he qualifies up front again, a season sweep could be on tap.
Difference Makers and Value Plays
Martin Truex Jr. ($11,300)
He hasn’t been as consistent in terms of finishes as some of the other top options, but his dominator upside at Michigan is on par with any driver out there. Truex has led laps in five of the last seven races at MIS, leading at least 25 laps in three of his last five starts. He has also recorded multiple fastest laps in seven consecutive starts at MIS, logging double-digit fastest laps six times and 50-plus on two occasions. Truex has the potential to be the No. 1 scorer at DraftKings this weekend.
Brad Keselowski ($10,700)
Much like his teammate, Keselowski has been a lock for strong runs at Michigan. He has cracked the Top 10 in eight of his last 10 starts at the track, finishing sixth or better in three straight. Keselowski has also led laps in seven of those races and has recorded fastest laps in all of them, logging double-digit fastest laps in three of the last four. He has one of the safest floors of any driver this weekend.
Ryan Blaney ($9,700)
In case you glossed over my earlier commentary, I will remind you that Team Penske drivers tend to do well at Michigan. For his part, Blaney has cracked the Top 10 in all three of his starts at the track in a Penske car, leading laps in two of those starts and recording fastest laps in all three. A Team Penske triple stack could prove profitable this weekend.
Kurt Busch ($8,900)
Busch is a three-time winner at Michigan, and after a second-place run here in June, he is showing no signs of slowing down. He has finished 12th or better in seven straight starts at MIS, finishing sixth or better in three straight. Busch has Top 5 upside and some dominator upside for a discounted price. He could make a great pivot to one of the high-priced plays.
Erik Jones ($8,500)
He is absolutely on fire heading into Michigan, and Jones has six finishes of eighth or better in the last seven races, including four straight finishes of fourth or better. A tire issue ruined his race at MIS at June, but before the problem, Jones was running consistently in the Top 3. I’m expecting him to challenge for a Top 5, and he could be a sleeper source of dominator points.
Daniel Suarez ($7,400)
With just one Top 15 in the last seven races this season, Suarez is definitely a risky pick this weekend. However, he had one of his strongest runs of the season at Michigan in June, finishing fourth and recording nine fastest laps. I’m not sure lightning can strike twice, but it won’t cost you that much to find out. I may take a flier on Suarez in some GPP contests.
Chris Buescher ($7,300)
The high-speed ovals have been Buescher’s bread and butter this year, and he has been particularly good at piling up place differential points. His performance at Michigan in June was a perfect example of this trend, and Buescher gained 15 spots on his way to a 16th-place finish. He has now cracked the Top 20 in three of his last four starts at MIS, and at this price, he will become a perfect addition to cash lineups if he has another poor qualifying effort this weekend.
Paul Menard ($6,900)
Menard has been solid at the two-mile ovals throughout his career, and he has been locked in at MIS since joining Wood Brothers Racing. In three starts here in the No. 21, he has posted an 11.3 average finish. Menard has finished 16th or better in all three of those races, and he even chipped in nine fastest laps in the June race earlier this year. He could be a useful lower-priced play depending on how qualifying plays out.
Sleeper Special
Daniel Hemric ($6,400)
The sample size is small, but Hemric had a solid debut at Michigan back in June. He finished 12th, posting the 15th-best average running position and ranking 11th in laps in the Top 15. In other words, Hemric was a Top 15 performer all afternoon, which bodes well for his chances of delivering another solid run this weekend. He could be an under-the-radar, lower-priced gem.
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